For some time now, international betting sites have favoured Finland to win the Eurovision Song Contest this year.
However, Finland has yet to choose the act that will be sent to Eurovision, but that will happen soon.
As of Wednesday morning, according to eurovisionworld.com, bookmakers were giving Finland an average 14 percent chance of winning. However, Finland is closely trailed by Greece at this early stage, with a 12-percent chance.
Betting houses also seem pretty sure about which act Finland will send to the song contest in Vienna in May.
That decision will be made on Saturday night at the UMK26 national qualifier at Nokia Arena in Tampere, where seven acts will compete for the chance.
But it isn't only Finland that's keeping an eye on UMK (aka the Contest for New Music), as there is a good deal of speculation about the Finnish qualifier on social media platform Reddit — and many of the discussions are in English.
The finalists were announced in mid-January. And here are their song entries:
Komiat
The five members of Komiat make modern-day "humppa", the good-humoured, quick-tempoed music style that has filled Finnish dancefloors for generations.
The group includes singer Aleksi Yli-Sissala, guitarist-singer Samuel Järvinen, accordion player Antero Linden, drummer Eero Nummela and bassist Juho Eskola.
Reddit user Miudmon said: "There's something really endearing about this. Very earnest. Like the vibe of someone who is having fun, not the vibe of trying to make others have fun, if that makes sense. I really like this".
However, according to international betting houses, unless things change at Saturday's qualifier, Komiat's UMK entry Lululai has a two percent chance of reaching ESC.
Antti Paalanen
The accordion-playing, throat-singing Antti Paalanen uniquely combines traditions of Southern Ostrobothnian folk music and Mongolian throat singing. Paalanen has said he wants to take the hybrid style to a larger audience.
Using those influences, his entry, Takatukka, pays homage to his 'business in front, party in the back' hairstyle known as 'the mullet'.
Redditor Vayne Verso shared an opinion about the entry: "This was exactly as unhinged as I figured it would be when I started listening to his discography the other day. Honestly, I love when countries let their freak flag fly like this in national finals".
Reddit also saw commenter Smudy said: "You know this is gonna be winning or at least get very close to winning knowing how the Finnish public votes".
According to betting houses on Wednesday, at 17 percent, Paalanen's Takatukka has better chances of winning on Saturday than most of his competitors.
CHACHI
Mexican-American Chachi Hildén, whose stage name is CHACHI, was born in Texas. After moving to Finland for love, she first gained public recognition after appearing on the reality TV show Masked Singer Finland in 2020. A few years later she landed a recording deal.
A Reddit user with the handle Mysterinna was confident that CHACHI's entry Cherry Cake would "be amazing live".
"This isn’t exactly my type of music, but it’s super catchy and it kind of makes me want to dance. I’m not sure whether I like Chachi’s voice that much, but I love her energy and moves," Mysterinna noted on Reddit.
However, CHACHI's entry has a mere one percent chance of winning the national qualifier, according to the betting tracker on Wednesday.
Etta
Pop star Etta's song is called Million Dollar Smile, but apart from the chorus and title, the track is sung in Finnish. The singer-rapper, born with the name Emmalotta Kanth, was raised in Vantaa and released her first single in 2018.
One UMK follower on Reddit suggested that Etta's Million Dollar Smile would likely do well on the radio. Another said: "A quality entry that many countries would kill for, but nothing special from Finland".
As of Wednesday, bookmakers were giving Etta's track a two-percent chance of winning at UMK.
Sinikka Monte
Half Finnish and half South African, Sinikka Monte was born in Scotland and grew up in Austria. Compared to many of her competitors, she entered the contest as a relative unknown.
Similarly, her subtle, mournful track Ready To Leave is in stark contrast to this year's louder UMK entries.
"I didn't expect to like this. Now after playing this on repeat for about 30 minutes, it's safe to say I like this," WittyEggplant said about the song in a comment on Reddit.
Like most other entries this year, Ready To Leave appears to have little chance to win (1%), the betting tracker site said on Wednesday.
KIKI
With Greek and Finnish roots, KIKI (Petra Gavalas) has said that her music combines Finnish melancholy with Greek darkness.
But her entry Rakkaudenkipee (Lovesick), is a moody dance track verging into techno territory — and sung entirely in Finnish.
"Very dramatic, very stylish, a bit mysterious. I like how the song builds and develops. And the video is absolutely insane, wow," Redditor Mysterinna said about Rakkaudenkipee.
"Another year of UMK giving us more bangers than a British lunch lady. What are they putting in the saunas up there?" another commenter said on Reddit.
KIKI's Rakkaudenkipee has a three percent chance of winning at UMK, according to the betting house tracker. However, things are known to change.
Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen
Pop vocalist Pete Parkkonen and classical violinist Linda Lampenius joined forces with their entry Liekinheitin (Flamethrower).
Parkkonen became a familiar face in 2008, competing in the TV singing contest Idols.
Meanwhile, Lampenius has performed around the world, becoming a household name in the 1990s and rejuvenating her pop music career with an energetic performance alongside Finnish female vocalists at UMK last year.
"Finland slays year after year. To think they used to trade last places with Norway and Portugal," Reddit user vilhelmin said when the track was released.
According to eurovisionworld.com on Wednesday, Liekinheitin has a 75 percent chance of winning at UMK, far ahead of any of their competitors.
According to Yle, which organises the national contest, UMK's winner is determined by a combination of audience votes (75%) and international juries (25%).
Audience votes can be cast via Yle's app, by SMS (at €1.50 per vote) or by phone (€1.52 per call, plus local charge). The proceeds will be donated to Mieli Mental Health Finland for its mental health efforts among youths.
The UMK26 domestic qualifier will be held at Nokia Arena in Tampere on Saturday, 28 February 2026, at 9pm (Finnish time). It will be streamed on Yle Areena (with English commentary) and broadcast on Yle's TV1.
You can read more about UMK in English here.
