Southern Finland is approaching the end of the year with hardly any snowfall so far — and that's the new normal, says Anna Luomaranta, head of the Extreme Weather and Climate Change Group at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI).
And when the snow does come, it may not stay for long. That's a contrast to, say, half a century ago, when there were typically months of permanent snow cover through most of the country each winter.
"There's been change that anyone can see. For instance, in southern Finland, there are more greyish winters with a shorter duration of cold and snow," says Yle meteorologist Anne Borgström.
And that's not just baby boomers' nostalgic memory of childhood winters — FMI data shows that Decembers are becoming more frequently snowless in the south. Overall, winters are several weeks shorter than in pre-industrial times. Since the 1960s, winter temperatures have risen by 2-3 degrees, in some places even more.
"In southern Finland, the snow season is becoming more fragmented, with snow falling and melting several times during the winter," says Luomaranta. "Snowy winters are, of course, still possible in southern Finland, but the probability of them is decreasing."
The average start of the so-called permanent snow season has been moving later. Through most of southern and central Finland, it has moved about 2-6 days later each decade since 1961.
At the same time, winters are becoming wetter, explains Borgström.
"The main thing is that there's a huge variation from one winter to another. But over a period of 30 years, you can see that there’s a change towards rainier winters. Since the 1960s, precipitation has increased the most during the winters — and especially in southern Finland, a larger proportion of that now falls as rain."
Deeper snow in Lapland?
The changes will affect various parts of Finland differently, says Borgström.
"Though it's getting warmer in Lapland, it will still be below freezing, so there's probably going to be more snow during the winter in Lapland — at least in the beginning," she says.
Luomaranta agrees, noting that the annual maximum snow depth has already increased in the north, and that in future, "there may be really deep snow up there in some winters".
"On the other hand, the annual maximum snow depth has decreased in southern and central Finland by about 2-4cm per decade — in some areas even by as much as 6cm per decade," she adds.
How then will this all affect people's everyday lives — and mental states?
"I think the darkness is the biggest way that the changing winters will affect people's lives in the coming years," says Borgström. "It's becoming greyer and cloudier, especially in southern Finland, so there won't be as much snow on the ground to make it brighter. If it's pouring down rain in January, I think that's the worst thing for people."
Kids' winter games changing
"Yes, when you don’t have much daylight anyway, the lack of snow makes it feel even darker," replies Niklas Kaskeala, who founded the Finnish NGO Protect Our Winters a decade ago.
"That definitely has an impact on people's mental health, and maybe even physical health as well if they don't want to go outside during those dark, wet hours. It's already affecting the ability to do snow sports like skiing, snowboarding and sledding. It's impacting children's play; they're not learning the same ways of playing around in the snow that we enjoyed as kids," he says.
Kaskeala points to the changing social aspect of his own passion: winter sports.
"In Finland, cross-country skiing was traditionally a sport that everyone could do, no matter what their socioeconomic background. Nowadays, it often requires travel to do snow sports. But not everyone can go to Lapland during the winter, so maybe snowboarding or skiing are becoming more elitist."
"People wonder what to do outside if there's no snow"
Luomaranta, too, notes that the lack of snow is decreasing access to traditional winter outdoor recreation such as sledding or skiing in southern and western Finland.
"I think many people wonder what to do outside in the wintertime if there's no snow. And the darker, damper winters may also affect people's mental health. On the other hand, there will be less snow removal work and maybe fewer traffic problems," she points out.
For meteorologists, the new normal may mean rethinking standard definitions of winter.
"We define the beginning of meteorological winter as when the mean temperature stays below zero for at least 24 hours," says Borgström. "But during the past few decades, we've had more winters when we're not sure whether it has ever actually arrived, because there are so few days when the mean temperature stays below freezing."
"With climate change, it's getting more normal that we have these huge variations, like temperature swings between +8 degrees and -10 degrees Celsius in December, for example. It's getting more like that, whereas in the old days we had steadier winter weather."
Kaskeala: "Action instead of depression"
Meanwhile Kaskeala points out that the effects of global warming are more pronounced closer to the Poles due to a phenomenon called polar amplification. About one third of Finland lies above the Arctic Circle.
"Quite often when we think about climate change, it's not something that we think impacts us as Finns so much. The hurricanes, droughts, or floods are somewhere else. But the closer you go to the Arctic, the faster the temperatures are rising. Overall, Finland is warming up at about twice the speed as the global average, so if we're close to 1.5 degrees globally, it’s almost double that in Finland," he says.
"But I hope that this all can spark action instead of depression. If we can limit global warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees globally, we’d pretty much keep the current status and still have some wintry weather in southern Finland as well," says Kaskeala.
"Maybe that can be a motivating factor for people to take action? I really hope that people will start becoming more vocal and active in their personal lives, at work and how they vote, for example."
