Finland is closely monitoring Russia's military build-up and planning behind the eastern border.
Russia announced before its invasion of Ukraine that it would increase the number of troops and reinforce its garrisons in the northwest of Russia. This work is now underway.
The accession of Finland and Sweden to Nato has also had an impact on the repositioning of Russian forces.
In recent weeks, several international media outlets have reported on the increase in the Russian forces in the region, based on satellite images.
Major General Sami Nurmi, who heads strategic planning for the Finnish Defence Forces, said there have been no surprises in the media images.
When the crisis in Ukraine ends at some point, Russia is expected to deploy troops to areas close to Finland, because there have been a lot of troops sent to Ukraine from these locations. This will require that there are structures in place for repositioning forces.
"That is consistent with what has been assessed. It is not a question of a mass construction effort," General Nurmi explained.
Fast repositioning
Intelligence services in various countries have assessed that Russia may have a desire to test Nato defences or even attack Nato countries.
The Finnish Defence Forces see several time dimensions to this.
"A limited concentration of forces can happen very quickly. Russia has the ability to do this. It was seen in Ukraine when the war started," said Nurmi.
On the other hand, it will take years for conventional forces to return from Ukraine and for troops to be fully redeployed. Modernisation will take even longer, Nurmi pointed out. Troops have been sent Ukraine to fight from garrisons close to Finland's eastern border. When they return or are replaced, structures have to be in place, which is what Russia is doing now.
A recent public release of an assessment of Russia's capabilities by Danish military intelligence says Russia could invade its neighbours six months after the end of the war in Ukraine, the Baltic Sea region two years from then, and be capable of a wider war in Europe within five years, if European defences are not strengthened.
The European Union estimated in the spring that Europe needs to be ready to defend itself in five years.
Concerning but not critical
Establishing an accurate time estimate is challenging, but General Nurmi points to assessments from various public sources estimating that Russia may be able to mount a threat in about three to five years.
"It is probably something like that. But for us it is important to monitor developments closely, update our own assessments and act accordingly," he said.
However, the situation is not particularly critical.
"We have been neighbours of Russia for many hundreds of years. We have learned to live with it," Nurmi added.
Even so, the situation in Ukraine and the resulting deterioration in the security situation is a source of great concern for Finland, according to Nurmi. Still, General Nurmi believes that Finland has responded to the situation as needed by increasing its defence spending.
