Finns' trust in US support for Europe has fallen sharply.
Only 16 percent of people polled in Finland said they think that the United States would provide military support to defend European countries.
That’s according to a Nato poll published on Thursday by a research consortium led by the University of Helsinki.
Confidence in US support has dropped significantly since Donald Trump was re-elected as US president. Earlier last year, 30 percent of Finns thought that the US would help Europe if needed, no matter who was elected president.
Residents of Finland do not put much stock in the defence cooperation agreement (DCA) with the US, which entered into force last September. Only a little over a quarter think it would be helpful during the Trump era.
"Deep disappointment" in the US
Finland has seen itself as having a special relationship with the US, said the head of the study, Hanna Wass, Associate Professor in Political Science at the University of Helsinki. Now, though, Trump's threats and the broader shift in the US role have undermined Finns’ trust that the US would help if needed, she told Yle.
"There is some kind of deep disappointment in relation to America," said Wass.
Although trust in the US is weak, Finns still trust that Nato countries will help each other.
Nearly three-quarters of respondents believe that Finland would receive help from other Nato members. Just over 60 percent would be willing to send Finnish soldiers to support another Nato ally, up slightly since last year.
No Ukrainian territory for Russia
Finns still firmly believe that Europe should support Ukraine.
If a peace deal is reached, over 70 percent of Finns would be ready to send European troops to maintain peace in Ukraine as part of the so-called ’coalition of the willing’.
However, only a little over half of Finns want to send Finnish soldiers to Ukraine.
More than half of the respondents believe that peace would be better than continuing the war, even if peace requires heavy concessions.
On the other hand, peace with Ukraine should not be made on any conditions. Eight out of 10 said that Russia should not be allowed to keep any territory it has captured from Ukraine. Only 13 percent would support a peace treaty where Russia would get to keep some captured territories.
The study authors describe this as an interesting tension between realism on the one hand and respect for Ukraine's territorial integrity and right to self-determination on the other.
Less than half of respondents support Ukraine's admission to Nato or the European Union if it does not meet the membership criteria.
However, Finns believe that the US should not be able to block Ukraine from joining Nato.
Support for Nato slips
Finnish support for Nato membership remains strong, but has fallen from its peak. Just over three-quarters of Finns would now vote in favour of joining Nato. That’s down from 81 percent last year.
"For a long time, it seemed like that figure was frozen," said Wass.
Now the consensus is fracturing. The decline in support is particularly visible in those groups that were already more sceptical about the alliance, Wass observed.
Men have consistently been more positive about Nato membership than women. Now 81 percent of men support Nato, compared to 71 percent of women. Older people are more supportive of Nato membership than younger people.
The decline in Nato support has been sharper among women, as well as among younger adults and the least-educated. The strongest supporters of Nato are still those with the highest levels of income and education.
Support for Nato in Finland is slightly higher than the overall average in the 32 Nato countries, where 70 percent supported membership last year.
Among Finnish political parties, Nato support is still highest among supporters of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition Party and lowest among backers of the opposition Left Alliance, where less than half would vote for Nato.
The ongoing NATOpoll research project is being carried out by four universities, the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) and the polling organisation Taloustutkimus. There have been 1,700-2,900 respondents in various rounds of the study, with a margin of error of roughly two percentage points.
