Finland must initiate new climate measures across all sectors in order to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2035 as stipulated by the Climate Act. That's the main message of the government's annual climate report, presented by Minister of Climate and the Environment Kai Mykkänen (NCP) on Thursday.
Greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 11 percent last year compared to the previous year. The land use sector, which includes the agricultural and forest industries, constituted a small net sink in 2023, meaning that it absorbed slightly more emissions that it produced.
However, the pace is insufficient, the report says.
Every year, the Environment Ministry prepares a report for Parliament on Finland's emissions and progress towards climate goals. It is required to do so by the Climate Act, originally adopted in 2015 and bolstered by the government of PM Sanna Marin (SDP) two years ago.
Emissions decreased, but more action needed
The decrease in emissions last year was faster than expected, especially in energy and heat production, where emissions decreased by up to 19 percent from the previous year.
This is explained by the decrease in coal and peat consumption and the increase in nuclear and wind power, the report says. Finland's electricity production is already almost emission-free.
On the other hand, emissions from the so-called effort-sharing sector have decreased more slowly and, according to the report, Finland may have difficulties staying within the emission quotas.
The effort-sharing sector includes transport, some aspects of agriculture, heating of buildings, waste management, machinery and small industrial and heating plants.
According to the EU, Finland must slash emissions from these sectors in half by 2030.
According to Finland's national Climate Act, total emissions must be reduced by up to 60 percent by that year, compared to the 1990 level.
In order to achieve this goal, additional measures are needed to reduce emissions by another 1.3 million tons.
"20-million-ton headache"
For Finland to be carbon neutral by 2035, emissions and carbon sinks must at least be in balance.
The need for additional measures adds up to some 19 million tons per year, which corresponds to about half of Finland's current total emissions.
Although greenhouse gas emissions are decreasing at a good pace towards 2035, the carbon sink is nowhere near the level required to meet Finland's target of carbon neutrality — mostly because of increased logging. That has accelerated partly due to the end of wood imports from Russia since its attack on Ukraine in 2022.
The land use sector’s carbon sink has been declining for 15 years. The sector even became a net source of emissions for several years, until last year. In practice, this is because logging has increased while forest growth has slowed.
According to Mykkänen, the trend must be reversed and Finland must make its forest use sustainable within a reasonable time frame.
"This trend must be reversed if we are going to be carbon neutral within a decade. It's a 20-million-ton headache," he said on Thursday.
Without significant additional measures, Finland will probably not achieve the obligations regarding carbon sinks set by the EU.
According to the Union’s LULUCF regulation, member countries must ensure that the land use sector does not produce any net emissions during the 2021–25 period.
If Finland does not meet its obligations, it will likely be forced to buy carbon credits from other member countries.
Mykkänen suggests limits on logging
The government programme mentions, among other things, a moderate extension of logging cycles, intervention in excessively heavy-handed logging and reduction of emissions from peatlands.
However, according to the minister, the biggest impact in the short term is the annual logging volume.
"The honest fact is that according to the current forecast models, the land use sector sink will only recover sufficiently if the level of logging falls significantly from the current level. This is a major societal question of whether that is desirable and what kind of guidance tools the state has to do it," he said.
The minister noted that no government in Finland has so far made decisions on limiting the level of logging. The forest industry has always been one of Finland’s biggest export sectors.
At the moment, authorities cannot even impose a limit on how much timber forest owners can sell annually, for example.
"These will not be easy decisions for any government; that’s clear. It’s not easy to say that two or three pulp mills in eastern Finland will be closed. These are people's jobs. It's difficult to find alternatives to them in these areas as it is, but we have to go in that direction," he said.
New climate measures due next autumn
Next winter, the government is to submit an energy and climate strategy to the Parliament, outlining its key climate measures.
The cabinet may also take a position on whether Finland will start buying carbon credits as a way to fulfil its climate obligations.
According to Mykkänen, the government still needs to find ways to strengthen carbon sinks. However, he pointed out that emission reduction measures must also be coordinated with society's other challenges.
For example, there is great pressure to reduce agricultural emissions, but according to him, emissions measures cannot hamper food production.
"People's freedom to do business and the questions of everyday costs must also be taken into account," he said.
The government may face internal struggles over the issue, particularly between the two main coalition partners: PM Petteri Orpo’s pro-business National Coalition Party, which includes Mykkänen, and the Finns Party led by Finance Minister Riikka Purra, who last year described the carbon neutrality goal as "extremely stupid".
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