Voting sites opened at 9am Sunday for the first round of Finland’s presidential election, with a record 44 percent of eligible voters having cast ballots in advance.
Experts predict a high voter turnout, with the uncertain international situation spurring interest in who will manage Finland's affairs in the international arena. The Finnish president primarily oversees security and foreign policy, except for EU affairs, which are primarily the responsibility of the prime minister and cabinet.
"We live in a very turbulent world. That makes people think about democratic rights and the importance of using them," said Arto Jääskeläinen, elections director at the Ministry of Justice.
"Finland's international political position, Nato membership and the strong selection of candidates speak in favour of a high voter turnout," said Yle election expert Sami Borg, research director at the Foundation for Municipal Development.
Both Jääskeläinen and Borg believe that the turnout will exceed 75 percent, as early voting was record-breaking.
"It is a sign that people are interested in this election. In light of the polls, the election setup appears to be so interesting that the voters will turn out on election day as well," said Jääskeläinen.
"With early voting activity significantly higher than six years ago, it seems obvious that the entire voting percentage will increase," Borg added.
About 1.88 million votes were cast during the early voting period, which ended on Tuesday. That represents 44.5 percent of eligible voters living in Finland, and does not include all votes cast abroad.
In the previous presidential election in 2018, some 1.56 million votes were cast in advance and the advance voting percentage was 36.7.
Many undecided voters
According to a public opinion survey published by Yle on Thursday, an unusually large share of voters were still undecided. A quarter of respondents declined to state a position and said they would wait until election day proper. This could lead to heavy voting activity on Sunday, and perhaps a surprising final result.
"If voter turnout increases significantly, that could mean success for candidates whose parties usually do not fully mobilise their supporters in the elections. In these presidential elections, particularly Jussi Halla-aho (Finns) and to some extent also Pekka Haavisto (Green/independent) could benefit from such a situation," said Borg.
The latest polls suggest that the two candidates could be vying for the second slot in the likely run-off election against frontrunner Alexander Stubb (NCP). Support for the other half-dozen candidates is significantly lower.
Turnout has decreased in the long term
The long-term trend is that voter turnout in presidential elections has decreased, even as the popularity of early voting has increased.
In the 2018 presidential election, when Sauli Niinistö was re-elected for a second term by a wide margin in the first round, voting turnout among citizens living in Finland was 69.9 percent. Just over half of those who exercised their right to vote did so in advance.
In 1994, the corresponding figures were 82.2 and 42 percent.
Young people may boost turnout
When forecasting the turnout for the presidential poll, Borg points to last spring’s parliamentary elections.
"If you compare the parliamentary elections of 2015 and 2023, the voting percentage of people under 25 rose by up to 10 percentage points. Voting activity has increased in the younger age group, which may boost turnout this time," he noted.
Traditionally older people have been more active voters.
"It is entirely possible that we will now see a significant increase in the voting percentage, which would be exceptional in Finnish election history," Borg added.
The forecast calls for reasonably good weather through most of the country, with relatively mild temperatures and some sun – so that should not be a factor holding back voter turnout.
Voting locales close at 8pm. Election results are expected to be clear soon after 10pm.
Some of the leading candidates were seen casting their own votes on Sunday.
Halla-aho voted in the morning in Helsinki while National Coalition Party candidate Stubb cast his ballot around midday in Espoo. Among the other candidates, at least Haavisto, who is backed by a voters' association and Green party, voted in advance.
Incumbent Sauli Niinistö, Finland's 12th president, voted for his successor on Sunday afternoon at the Lähderanta school in Espoo.
"It was really nice to vote since I didn't have to vote for myself," he commented to Yle afterwards.
Election officials said that as of 5pm, there had not been any reports of long queues or disturbances at voting sites.
If no candidates gathers more than 50 percent of the vote, a second round will be held on Sunday 11 February, with advance voting beginning next Wednesday, 31 January.
To be updated.
Eligible voters who are still unsure who to vote for can get help choosing a candidate from Yle's election compass.
Users with an Yle ID can leave comments on our news stories. You can create your Yle ID via this link. Our guidelines on commenting and moderation are explained here.
