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Analysis: Foreign policy leadership credibility will determine Finland's presidential race

Voters have to consider which candidate can most credibly implement a broadly acceptable foreign and security policy, writes Yle's political reporter Pekka Kinnunen.

Presidential candidates in an Yle TV studio in Helsinki 21 December 2023.
Candidates for the Finnish presidency in an televised debate Thursday 21 December 2023. Image: Lauri Karo / Yle
  • Yle News

On Thursday evening, the nine candidates seeking to become Finland's president faced off in a live debate at Yle's television studios in Helsinki.

All of the candidates were given the opportunity to present their views on a range of issues, including the most important area of responsibility for the President of the Republic, foreign and security policy.

Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022 united Finland's political field in terms of foreign and security policy, something which was especially evident in the discussion and decision-making regarding Finland's application for Nato membership.

The unanimity regarding the basic outlines of the nation's foreign and security policy was also on display in Thursday's presidential election debate.

The differences between the candidates have to be sought more in varying emphasis, rather than in clear divergence from general policy lines.

The good news is that all the candidates know their stuff.

Personal credibility counts

When the positions of the candidates on substantive issues are only a hair's breadth apart, their personal qualities are accentuated.

Voters have to consider which of the candidates can most credibly implement a broadly accepted foreign and security policy.

The political power of the groups backing the individual candidates will also help in getting into the second round, as long as the candidate is able to impress his or her own people first.

According to Yle Finnish service political reporter Pekka Kinnunen, no clear attempts to sway swing voters were evident in Thursday evening's debate.

Yle's election compass helps you to find a presidential candidate that most closely aligns with your views.

Benefiting from a duel

The National Coalition Party's presidential candidate Alexander Stubb has taken the lead in the latest presidential polls.

Stubb's trump card is the stable popularity of the party backing him, the NCP. To get to the second round, it is enough that he does not make any major mistakes. During Thursday's debate his balanced, consistent performance was an advantage.

Pekka Haavisto, who is the candidate of a voters' association backed by the Greens, faces more of a battle for a spot in the second round of the presidential election.

Haavisto's challenge is the increasing tight race for red-green voters and the fact that the popularity of the Greens has been languishing at less than ten percent of the voting public.

As the top two in the presidential polls, Stubb and Haavisto have been getting the most attention in the election campaign, which is beneficial for them both.

Stubb and Haavisto did not specifically challenge each other on Thursday evening, but what was more surprising was that no clear challenger to the top two emerged either.

Time is running short to present such a challenge.

Chance for at least one more?

The Centre Party and voters' association candidate, Olli Rehn, has not yet gotten his campaign off the ground.

Support for Jussi Halla-aho is still far from the popularity of the Finns Party which nominated him to run. Yle's election event again showed that Halla-aho is not at his strongest in debates. However, he did manage to speak directly to supporters of the Finns Party.

Social Democratic Party candidate Jutta Urpilainen is coming up from behind in the presidential race. A large number of SDP supporters had started to lean towards supporting Haavisto before she was nominated, but Urpilainen does have a chance to gather SDP voters back into the fold and make it into the second round.

However, neither Rehn nor Urpilainen got a clear boost from Thursday evening's debate.

Playoffs have begun

Some of the nine presidential candidates in the race seem to have already been left well behind by the front runners.

Support for Mika Aaltola, an independent put up by a voters' association, has crumbled as the election campaign has progressed. He faces a tough challenge to regain momentum and and there was no indication on Thursday that he will launch such a recovery.

Li Andersson, the party leader and candidate for the Left Alliance party, has been more popular than her party in general in several elections. Yle's election debate proved once again that Andersson brings a slightly different tone to the Left Alliance.

The candidate of the Christian Democrats, Sari Essayah, mainly waved the flag of her own party during the debate.

The Movement Now candidate, Harry Harkimo, made the debate a show of his own without getting a rise from his fellow contenders.

Election day for the first round of Finland's presidential election is Sunday, 28 January 2024.

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