Voter support has increased for Alexander Stubb (NCP) in the race to become Finland's next president, as has his lead over the other candidates, according to the results of Yle's latest presidential poll.
The survey of voter sentiment was carried out between 27 November and 7 December. It suggests that former PM Stubb would receive 31 percent support in the first round of the presidential election, due to be held in January.
This represents a three percentage point increase in support for Stubb compared to the previous poll carried out last month.
The latest figures mean Stubb has stretched his lead over second place Pekka Haavisto (Green), who saw his backing among voters fall by that very amount, three percentage points, from 26 percent in the last survey to 23 percent this time around.
Haavisto was the previous frontrunner in the race, topping the polls in September and October.
The latest survey also shows that Olli Rehn, current Governor of the Bank of Finland, has retained his position in third place, although he saw his support drop by two percentage points to 12 percent.
Jari Pajunen of pollster Taloustutkimus told Yle that the latest results show much clearer differences in the support levels for the top three candidates.
"When a trend starts to develop, it is more likely that the same trend will intensify than reverse," Pajunen noted.
Halla-aho into fourth place, Aaltola slips back
While the top three positions remain unchanged from the previous poll, there has been considerable movement among the candidates further back.
Former leader of the Finns Party Jussi Halla-aho moved into fourth place as he saw a two percentage point increase in support, while independent candidate Mika Aaltola dropped from fourth down to seventh, as his backing fell from 9 to 4 percent.
This decline can be attributed to Aaltola's lack of political experience, Pajunen noted, as well as the fact that he is not running with support of a political party.
"Without a political home, [Aaltola] does not have the same support networks, visibility and campaign machinery," Pajunen said.
Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate Jutta Urpilainen only joined the race in November, but she ranked fifth in the latest polling with the backing of seven percent of voters.
Left Alliance leader, and the party's presidential candidate, Li Andersson saw her support drop to 5 percent, although she remained in sixth place.
Pajunen noted that the candidates whose support has increased since the last survey — such as Stubb, Halla-aho and Urpilainen — have mostly received that extra backing from among voters of their own parties.
He added further that the support for Urpilainen has chipped away at Haavisto's popularity.
Second round may be decided by left-right split
The first round of the presidential elections will be held on 28 January, with a second round likely on 11 February.
In the second round, many voters will be faced with a situation in which they cannot vote for their favoured candidate, but will instead have to choose between one of the two remaining candidates.
This means that votes cast in the second round will likely be split loosely along left-right lines.
In the most likely second round scenario, with Stubb against Haavisto, the NCP candidate would likely pick up votes from the first round supporters of Halla-aho and Rehn, while Haavisto would benefit from the support of Urpilainen or Andersson voters.
The Yle-commissioned survey was carried out by Taloustutkimus from 27 November-7 December. It queried the voting preferences of 2,046 people between the ages of 18-79. The survey had a maximum margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.
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