Former PM Alexander Stubb (NCP) has taken the lead in Yle's latest presidential poll, surpassing former Greens foreign minister Pekka Haavisto who led the survey in October.
Stubb received support from across the political spectrum. One in three respondents who normally support the Social Democrats said Stubb would receive their votes in an eventual second round of the election.
The survey found that Stubb would get 55 percent of votes while 45 percent would go to Haavisto in a second round. Compared to last month's survey, Stubb saw his support increase by six percentage points, while Haavisto's slipped by three percentage points.
In October, support for the two candidates was just about even, with Haavisto slightly in the lead. The new poll suggests that Stubb would win by a 10-point margin if the pair went head-to-head in a likely second round.
Support for Stubb increased among respondents over the age of 50, while he also drew support from people who normally vote for the Centre, Social Democrats or the Finns Party. Meanwhile, the new poll found Haavisto losing support among older voters.
The Yle-commissioned survey was carried out by polling firm Taloustutkimus. The company's CEO, Jari Pajunen, noted that the threshold for the candidates to reach a possible second election round has grown.
The latest survey's third-most popular candidate was Olli Rehn, the Governor of the Bank of Finland, who received 14 percent support. In fourth place, political scientist Mika Aaltola received nine percent support, reflecting a one-point drop from the previous poll.
Not much change for others
Overall, support for other candidates remained stable, but low.
Support for Jussi Halla-aho (Finns), Li Andersson (Left), Sari Essayah (CD) and Harry Harkimo (MN) was at the same level as in October.
Meanwhile, support for Jutta Urpilainen (SDP) increased by a percentage point, despite the fact that she has not officially announced her candidacy.
Pajunen noted that voters who are not devoted to a particular party could play an important role in January's election.
One-quarter of non-affiliated voters support Haavisto while one-fifth of them have backed Stubb.
Pajunen says there are about 600,000 votes up in the air, if the pair go head-to-head in a second round.
Generally, Stubb is the favourite candidate among men, while women are more likely to support Haavisto, according to the poll.
The election's first round will be held on Sunday, 28 January 2024.
The Yle-commissioned survey was carried out by Taloustutkimus 30 October-9 November. It queried 1,549 people between the ages of 18-79. The survey had a maximum margin of error of 2.2 percentage points in either direction.
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