Papers by Timothy Guinnane
Social Science Research Network, 2010
Simon Szreter's book Fertility, Class, and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940 argues that social and ec... more Simon Szreter's book Fertility, Class, and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940 argues that social and economic class fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in marital fertility as reported in the 1911 census of England and Wales. Szreter's conclusion made the book immediately influential, and it remains so. This finding matters a great deal for debates about the causes of the European fertility decline of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. For decades scholars have argued whether the main forces at work were ideational or social and economic. This note reports a simple re-analysis of Szreter's own data, which suggests that social class does explain cross-sectional differences in English marital fertility in 1911.
Social Science Research Network, 2012
The German government introduced compulsory accident insurance for industrial fi rms in 1884. Thi... more The German government introduced compulsory accident insurance for industrial fi rms in 1884. This insurance scheme was one of the main pillars of Bismarck's famous social insurance system. The accident-insurance system achieved only one of its intended goals: it successfully compensated workers and their survivors for losses due to accidents. The accident-insurance system was less successful in limiting the growth of work-related accidents, although that goal had been a reason for the system's creation. We trace the failure to stem the growth of accidents to faulty incentives built into the 1884 legislation. The law created mutual insurance groups that used an experiencerating system that stressed group rather than fi rm experience, leaving fi rms with little hope of saving on insurance contributions by improving the safety of their own plants. The government regulator increasingly stressed the imposition of safety rules that would force all fi rms to adopt certain safety practices. Econometric analysis shows that even the fl awed tools available to the insurance groups were powerful, and that more consistent use would have reduced industrial accidents earlier and more extensively.
Wirtschaftsdienst, Apr 1, 2021
The Journal of Economic History, Mar 1, 2011
The Knappschaft was a mutual association through which German miners insured themselves against a... more The Knappschaft was a mutual association through which German miners insured themselves against accident, illness, and old age. The Knappschaft underlies Bismarck's sickness and accident insurance legislation, and thus Germany's system today. This article focuses on moral hazard, which plagued the Knappschaften in the later nineteenth century. Sick pay made it attractive for miners to feign illness that made them unable to work. We outline the moral hazard problem the Knappschaften faced as well as the mechanisms they devised to control it, and then use econometric models to demonstrate that those mechanisms were at best imperfect. ost wealthy countries today face serious problems related to the way they insure their populations against the financial consequences of illness, accident, and old age. A central issue in the design of these social insurance schemes dogged them in the nineteenth century and remains critical today: how to target benefits to the program's intended beneficiaries. Many of the conditions or events against which policy intends to insure individuals are difficult or costly for others to observe. Without proper controls, generous benefits will both increase the welfare of the targeted population, as intended, and encourage others to claim they belong to the targeted population, wasting resources and perhaps reducing
Was der Mensch ist, verdankt er der Vereinigung von Mensch und Mensch. 1 1. "Man is what he is th... more Was der Mensch ist, verdankt er der Vereinigung von Mensch und Mensch. 1 1. "Man is what he is thanks to his association with his fellow man." This is the first line of Gierke's (1868) famous history of associations in German law. 2. See Chilton and Versteeg's (2016) survey of contemporary written constitutions, which included 186 countries. Surveys of older constitutions, undertaken by the Comparative Constitutions Project, found that for constitutions promulgated before 1900, 36 percent included freedom of assembly, and 46 percent had freedom of association. For 1900-1945, the comparable numbers are 77 percent and 83 percent. (Comparative Constitutions Project, Characteristics of National Constitutions, V.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1993
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 1, 2001
Banks play a greater role in the German financial system than in the United States or Britain. Ge... more Banks play a greater role in the German financial system than in the United States or Britain. Germany's large universal banks are admired by those who advocate bank deregulation in the United States. Others admire the universal banks for their supposed role in corporate governance and industrial finance. Many discussions distort the German Banking system by overstressing one of several types of banks, and ignore the competition and cooperation between the famous universal banks and other banking groups. Tracing the historical development of the German banking system from the early nineteenth century places the large universal banks in context.
Jahrbüch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte, 2020
The first modern German cooperatives began operations in the 1840s and faced, among other challen... more The first modern German cooperatives began operations in the 1840s and faced, among other challenges, unfriendly legal rules. In Prussia, cooperatives experienced official harassment as allies of the then-oppositional Liberals. More importantly, cooperatives lacked the right to act as bodies, forcing them to engage in expensive legal workarounds for simple tasks such as contracting debts. The first German cooperatives law, Prussia's 1867 Act, made clear the cooperatives had a right to exist and gave them the right to act as entities. Further development in the cooperative movement exposed flaws in the original act. The 1889 (Reich) Cooperatives Act legalized some organizational differences in the newer, rural cooperatives, and introduced compulsory external audits for cooperatives. Most famously, the 1889 Act first allowed cooperatives with limited liability, a step that made German cooperatives more similar to those elsewhere in Europe. The historical literature on cooperatives has neglected two important parts of this story: problems with the way unlimited liability operated under the 1867 Act, and the close connection between cooperative and company law.
Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, 2020
The first modern German cooperatives began operations in the 1840s and faced, among other challen... more The first modern German cooperatives began operations in the 1840s and faced, among other challenges, unfriendly legal rules. In Prussia, cooperatives experienced official harassment as allies of the then-oppositional Liberals. More importantly, cooperatives lacked the right to act as bodies, forcing them to engage in expensive legal workarounds for simple tasks such as contracting debts. The first German cooperatives law, Prussia’s 1867 Act, made clear the cooperatives had a right to exist and gave them the right to act as entities. Further development in the cooperative movement exposed flaws in the original act. The 1889 (Reich) Cooperatives Act legalized some organizational differences in the newer, rural cooperatives, and introduced compulsory external audits for cooperatives. Most famously, the 1889 Act first allowed cooperatives with limited liability, a step that made German cooperatives more similar to those elsewhere in Europe. The historical literature on cooperatives has...
Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, 2006
Sterben wir aus?" lautet der Titel eines von Bruno Heck 1988 herausgegebenen Sammelbandes. Heute ... more Sterben wir aus?" lautet der Titel eines von Bruno Heck 1988 herausgegebenen Sammelbandes. Heute leben 83 Millionen Menschen in Deutschland; die Deutschen sterben also sicher noch nicht so schnell aus. Aber die Frage ist dennoch nicht sinnlos. Am Anfang des 19. Jahrhunderts gebar die typische deutsche Frau etwa acht Kinder. Heute bringen deutsche Frauen im Durchschnitt nur mehr 1,4 Kinder zur Welt. Eine große Minderheit bleibt heutzutage sogar ganz kinderlos. Und allen Prognosen zufolge werden die Fertilitätsquoten weiter sinken. Die Bevölkerungswissenschaftler beschreiben diese Entwicklung als "Geburtenrückgang" oder "Fertilitätsübergang". Bis zum Vorabend des Ersten Weltkriegs erlebten fast alle abendländischen Nationen den Beginn dieses Übergangs. In Frankreich und in den USA fing diese Entwicklung bereits spätestens zu Anfang des 19. Jahrhunderts an. In Deutschland, England, Belgien usw. hat sie etwas später eingesetzt, etwa um die Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts. Gegenwärtig gibt es diese Bewegung aber weltweit. Kurz nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg hatte man eine "Bevölkerungsexplosion" in der Dritten Welt befurchtet. Die jährliche Zahl der Geburten, die zwischen 1950 und 1970 tatsächlich anstieg, ist aber seit 1980 auch in den meisten Entwicklungsländern wieder zurückgegangen. * Ich danke Professor Toni Pierenkemper, auf dessen freundliche Einladung ich diesen Vortrag am 29. Juli 2004 am Forschungsinstitut für Sozial-und Wirtschaftsgeschichte der Universität zu Köln halten konnte. Die US-National Institutes of Health haben meine Forschung zu diesem Thema finanziell unterstützt. Für aufschlussreiche und angenehme Gespräche bedanke ich mich bei meinen Kollegen John C. Brown
Civil War History, 1995
To say that a historical event is important can mean one of two things: that an event may be impo... more To say that a historical event is important can mean one of two things: that an event may be important to us as later observers or that the event might have been important to people who lived at the time. Modern observers with the benefit of hindsight often think an event was important largely because we know its role in later chains of events: for example, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1 9 14 might seem an isolated example of Balkan violence were it not for its role in starting World War I. Similarly, the Wannsee meeting in ...
Social Science Research Network, 2022
The persistence literature in economics and related disciplines connects recent outcomes to event... more The persistence literature in economics and related disciplines connects recent outcomes to events long ago. This influential literature marks a promising development but has drawn criticism. We discuss two prominent examples that ground the rise of the Nazi Party in distant historical roots. Several econometric, analytical, and historical errors undermine the papers' contention that deeply rooted culture and social capital fueled the Nazi rise. The broader lesson is that research of this type works best when it incorporates careful econometrics, serious consideration of underlying mechanisms (including formal theory), and, most important, scrupulous attention to history and to the limitations of historical data.
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Nov 1, 2011
, as well as attendees at the 2005 meetings of the Canadian Network for Economic History and the ... more , as well as attendees at the 2005 meetings of the Canadian Network for Economic History and the 2007 meetings of the American Sociological Association. Scott Redenius helped us organize the state banking statistics. We extend a special thanks to Fishback and his coauthor Shawn Kantor, who made their extremely useful dataset available for other scholars to use. Elisabeth Anderson and Elise Couper provided excellent research assistance.
Journal of Development Economics, Feb 1, 2003
The publisher regrets that in the above article there were some omissions and errors. These are s... more The publisher regrets that in the above article there were some omissions and errors. These are supplied and corrected below.
Unpublished manuscript, Sep 1, 2002
Abstract: Shortly after its establishment, the Russell Sage Foundation embarked on a long-term pr... more Abstract: Shortly after its establishment, the Russell Sage Foundation embarked on a long-term program supporting the passage of Uniform Small Loan Laws as a way to address the problem of credit for poor people in the US In pursuing this strategy, the RSF relied on a quite particular diagnosis of the problem of credit, using private markets to help solve a social problem. In alliance with a number of other groups the foundation lobbied in many states for passage of the law. A panel regression analysis based on the 1900-1930 period ...
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2013
Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Economic and Social Resear... more Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Economic and Social Research Council of Great Britain; the Leverhulme Trust; and the Economic Growth Center (Yale University). Markus Küpker and Janine Maegraith provided excellent research assistance. We are grateful to Adèle Rossouw and Marian Schmidt for additional help. For comments and suggestions we thank seminar participants at INED, Queen's University (Kingston), UCLA, the University of Copenhagen, and Williams College. This paper is part of a larger ongoing project; for detailed background information on the communities in question, see Ogilvie, Küpker and Maegraith (2009); for a more formal treatment of population and economic shocks, see Guinnane and Ogilvie (2008).
Social Science Research Network, 2010
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went... more The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.
Social Science Research Network, Mar 1, 2008
Simple Malthusian models remain an important tool for understanding pre-modern demographic system... more Simple Malthusian models remain an important tool for understanding pre-modern demographic systems and their connection to the economy. But most recent literature has lost sight of the institutional context for demographic behavior that lay at the heart of Malthus's own analysis. This paper estimates a short-run version of a Malthusian model for two Württemberg communities from 1646 to 1870. Württemberg differed institutionally from the northwest European societies analyzed in previous studies. The impact of institutional differences shows clearly in differing demographic reactions to economic shocks. Mortality was less sensitive to shocks than one would expect, while nuptiality was especially sensitive.
International Migration Review, 1999
The Rural Economy in the Nineteenth Century 34 CHAPTER 3 The State and the Churches 59 CHAPTER 4 ... more The Rural Economy in the Nineteenth Century 34 CHAPTER 3 The State and the Churches 59 CHAPTER 4 The Demographic Setting 79 CHAPTER 5 Households and the Generations 133 CHAPTER 6 Coming of Age 166 CHAPTER 7 The Decline of Marriage 193 CHAPTER 8 Marital Fertility and Fertility Decline 241 CHAPTER 9 Conclusion 272 NOTES 287
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, May 1, 2009
The Uniform Small Loan Law (USLL) was the Russell Sage Foundation's primary device for fighting w... more The Uniform Small Loan Law (USLL) was the Russell Sage Foundation's primary device for fighting what it viewed as the scourge of high-rate lending to poor people in the first half of the twentieth century. The USLL created a new class of lenders who could make small loans at interest rates exceeding those allowed for banks under the normal usury laws. About two-thirds of the states had passed the USLL by 1930. This paper describes the USLL and then uses econometric models to investigate the state characteristics that influenced the law's passage. We find that urbanization and state-level economic characteristics played significant roles. So did measures of the state's banking system. We find no evidence that party-political affiliations had any effect, which is consistent with the USLL's "progressive" character. Finally, we find little evidence that the passage of the USLL in one state made passage more likely in neighboring or similar states. If anything, the cross-state influences were negative. Our findings suggest that the Russell Sage Foundation only imperfectly understood the political economy of the USLL, and that a different overall approach might have produced a result closer to their aims.
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Papers by Timothy Guinnane