Papers by Muhammad Marizal
Applied Mathematical Sciences, 2021
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed lifestyle and caused an increase in the death rate of diabetic ... more The Covid-19 pandemic has changed lifestyle and caused an increase in the death rate of diabetic patients. This is because diabetes mostly occurs due to high-stress levels, changes in food consumption patterns (fast food), and lack of exercise. Therefore, this research aims to determine the mortality probability of survival time data for diabetic patients. The comparison of several probability models was subsequently grouped according to their data sensitivity, namely the exponential distribution probability model, Gamma, Log-Normal, and Weibull, due to extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic. The graphical methods such as CDF and PDF plots were used to determine the best probability model to analyze the pattern of survival time for 50 diabetic patients at the Mandau Regional General Hospital (RSUD) Bengkalis Regency, Riau Province. The results showed that the Weibull model was the best in approaching the given observation data. This was also supported by numerical models such as AIC and BIC, by giving the smallest values for the two numerical methods compared to other probability models.
Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika, 2022
Forecasting is a technique for estimating a value on a particular object in the future by paying ... more Forecasting is a technique for estimating a value on a particular object in the future by paying attention to past data. This forecasting uses the Exponential Smoothing models because the data used is in accordance with the model. This study aims to predict the number of students in favorite high schools in Payakumbuh based on data obtained from 2014 until 2021 which is grouped into science and social studies classes. Forecasting is done using a Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential models. MAPE results show that the Double Exponential Smoothing model is better at predicting the number of new students than Single Exponential Smoothing. Keywords: Double exponential smoothing, forecasting, single exponential smoothingMSC2020: 62M10
Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika, 2022
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the behavior of life today, including the formal learning proce... more The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the behavior of life today, including the formal learning process that is carried out online. There are many challenges faced by students in following the pattern of the online learning system. Students who live in rural areas or in non-urban areas are students who experience greater challenges. The challenges analyzed in this research are physical, psychological, family and community factors on school policies. It was found that the factors that greatly influence school policy are family and community factors. Furthermore, these factors will be modeled so that they can assist schools in establishing an appropriate policy. This model can also describe in general about online-based learning for non-city areas during the covid-19 pandemic
Al-Ittizaan: Jurnal Bimbingan Konseling Islam, 2022
The COVID-19 vaccine is one of the government's breakthroughs to fight and deal with the COVI... more The COVID-19 vaccine is one of the government's breakthroughs to fight and deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, students' perceptions of vaccines are important to know. The reason is that many students from various universities, especially those from UIN Suska Riau, have their own opinions or opinions about the vaccination. So by using the Ordinal Logistic Regression obtained in this study, it is possible to estimate the categories of students' perceptions of vaccines with the independent variable being knowledge and information about COVID-19 vaccination
Distribusi Weibull Vs Distribusi Rayleigh Pada Pemodelan Kecepatan Angin
Angin merupakan sumber energy yang tak-terhingga. Menjawab tantangan krisis energy dampak lingkun... more Angin merupakan sumber energy yang tak-terhingga. Menjawab tantangan krisis energy dampak lingkungan yang diakibatkan oleh angin saat ini, maka perlu adanya upaya memodelkan kecepatan angin dalam mengeksplor potensi tersebut. Makalah ini membahas tentang dua distribusi yaitu Weibull dan Rayleigh dalam menentukan model distribusi yang sesuai untuk data kecepatan angin di Pekanbaru. Estimasi parameter yang digunakan adalah metode maksimum likelihood dan menggunakan uji kebaikan ( Goodness of Fit ) AIC ( Akaike’s Information Criterion ) . Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahwa, model distribusi Weibull lebih sesuai digunakan untuk data kecepatan angin di Pekanbaru, karena nilai AIC yang diperoleh lebih kecil dibandingkan nilai AIC dari distribusi Rayleigh
Palm oil and related products is Malaysia's second largest export. Palm oil state expenditure... more Palm oil and related products is Malaysia's second largest export. Palm oil state expenditures in 2010 are projected to reach approximately 64,282,738 tons within a year. However, these results still have not reached the stage of maximum when seen from an oil palm plantation areas in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak covering an area of 4,691,160 hectares. Of the area, approximately 2,807 million hectares of oil palm plantations planted by the private sector (59.8%) while 20.2% is managed by the Government (FELDA 675.167 ha, 80.262 Risda and Felcra 160.832), 321.947 ha (7.1%) by the local government and the rest covering an area of 540.194 ha (12.9%) are currently working on. This study discusses the entire area of oil palm planted area compared to the harvest, the number of workers factors, yields and prices. The model used in this research is the method of logistics, with the probit model, logit model and complementary log-log function (complementary log-log) to 39 locati...
American Journal of Applied Sciences, 2016
The practice of zakat is gaining popularity in Indonesia. This development is attributed to the s... more The practice of zakat is gaining popularity in Indonesia. This development is attributed to the strong role of the government in consistently developing zakat infrastructure and the increased awareness of people to practice zakat. Despite this success, a mechanism for predicting future zakat collection has not yet been developed. This study applies Holt's exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast zakat in Indonesia using zakat collection from 2009 to 2014. Results show that Holt's exponential smoothing is best fits the zakat time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting zakat. Holt's exponential smoothing is comparable to the ARIMA model given its small deviations in mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the software used to implement Holt's exponential smoothing is similar to that used in ARIMA models. These similarities show that these models can accurately forecast future trends to prepare proper strategies and plan the future of the organization. These models can also be used to develop a plan for managing charity based on the number of recorded mustahiq.
Psikobuletin:Buletin Ilmiah Psikologi, 2020
Manusia adalah makhluk yang unik karena dalam beberapa hal dia memiliki hal yang sama dengan hewa... more Manusia adalah makhluk yang unik karena dalam beberapa hal dia memiliki hal yang sama dengan hewan. Namun, mansia memiliki akal yang membedakannya dari hewan manapun yang ada di dunia ini. Insting adalah sesuatu yang ada pada manusia dan hewan yang menjaga mereka agar tetap hidup, atau bisa disederhanakan bahwa insting adalah sebuah potensi kehidupan. potensi kehidupan ini tidak dapat diindera seperti layaknya benda, namun kita dapat memastikan eksistensinya dengan melihat penampakan ataupun manifestasinya dalam aktivitas manusia sehari-hari. Setidaknya ada dua potensi kehidupan pada manusia yang bisa diketahui. Pertama, potensi kehidupan yang berbentuk kebutuhan jasadiyah (needs). Kedua, potensi kehidupan yang berupa keinginan naluriah (wants).
Research Journal of Applied Sciences
Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 2016
Annual Maximum Exchange Rate in Southeast Asia Based on Methods of L-moment and Maximum Likelihood
Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 2016
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Papers by Muhammad Marizal