ATTENTION: Two World Cup matches will be played today, and the outcome may already be decided by the standings
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Algeria and Austria do NOT need a win today
> The winner will face Spain in the Round of 32
> A draw guarantees both teams a
A practical guide to the round number bias hiding in weather markets
Most people glance at temperature markets and skip them
Paris right now: [polymarket.com/event/highest-…]
> 36C: 68.6 percent
> 37C: 27 percent
> 35C, 38C, 40C: under 2 percent each
That gap is the entire guide
I bought 500 shares for OpenAI to not release GPT 5.6 this month on @Polymarket
This is basically free money
It’s already been announced the government will limit access before it can be fully released to the public
More than $3.2 billion has already been traded on the World Cup Winner market.
The group stage is almost over, and the market is becoming more confident about the real contenders.
Current odds:
🇫🇷 France – 19%
🇦🇷 Argentina – 15%
🇪🇸 Spain – 14%
🏴 England – 10%
🇵🇹 Portugal
Over $10,000 in LP rewards per day on World Cup markets
In the World Cup Winner market, France, Argentina, and Spain currently offer the highest rewards
Regarding live match markets:
It’s best to place orders before the match starts or during halftime
Lower volatility = lower
I’ll make $230 if Erling Haaland doesn’t score today 🇳🇴
Feels like a good play with Norway expected to rotate heavily.
They’re already in the playoffs, so there’s no reason to risk key players here.
🚨JUST IN: Norway are set to heavily rotate against France today. Erling Haaland and Ødegaard will be on the bench.
Up to 10 players who started against Senegal will be on the bench.
Norway vs France tonight and 63% on France feels a little high
Both teams are already through
France only need a draw to finish first
Norway aren’t exactly desperate either - second place is fine, especially with the knockouts coming fast
Then there’s the rotation
Deschamps
Is $POLY airdrop coming sooner than we think?
Polymarket quietly updated its docs today
"The platform does not disclose details about potential future programs, rewards or eligibility criteria" - this line was removed
It’s been replaced with a call to follow official
Token $POLY soon?
Polymarket is changing the way they talk about the airdrop
The docs no longer say “Polymarket does not have a token” and now every announcement just tells people to wait for updates from the official channels
We’re not bullish enough on a drop this year
"Does Polymarket Have a Token?" doc was updated
Polymarket team doesn't say there won't be a token
But plans haven't been announced
Links to official communication channels were added in the doc