Replying to @coinbureau
nothing terrifies governments more than capital they can’t print or seize
probability god
7,463 posts
- it’s remarkable how polymarket has managed to become the most accurate forecasting system, surpassing legacy methods like polls, pundits, and traditional statistical models. joe rogan casually mentioned polymarket while talking about mamdani’s chances in the ny mayoral race as"Polymarket has it at what?"
- Replying to @luishXYZ and @Polymarketit’s like a rule that taxi drivers have the most insane political insights
- 1/12 how to build a prediction market in 5 minutes using math from a 2016 microsoft article 🧵 (github python repo link in the last tweet)
- 1/10 a lot of people claim bonding curves solve the hardest problem in prediction markets: bootstrapping liquidity. they allow for permissionless, instantaneous market creation without needing a centralized LP. let’s unpack how they work, why they matter, and what comes next.
- this is why blindly copy-trading “insiders” off volume spikes is dangerous. you’re basically outsourcing edge discovery and praying their signal is real or that they won’t dump on you before flipping sides. imagine if the guy actually has insider info, pumps a random share toDude is still hammering yes 94k shares now, latest buys at 50c
- polymarket is the most efficient information aggregation and capital coordination platform in existence mamdani has been trading above 80¢ for the past 4 months. the outcome’s been obvious for anyone actually paying attention legacy media even tried to spin it as “foreign
BREAKING: Zohran Mamdani will be the next Mayor of NYC, as projected by Polymarket. Polls are dead. Tomorrow’s news, today. - 1/9 prediction markets won't go parabolic by themselves. they need the financial primitives that made crypto trading what it is: borrowing, lending, leverage and perp contracts. traders gravitate towards these instruments bcs they want high profit margin opportunities.
- 1/10 been tracking one of the weirdest but most data-dense polymarket events yet: how fast will @diplo run a 5k this saturday (oct 25) at flushing meadows? a celebrity dj turned mid-pack runner, a flat park course, and a market trying to price his cardio.
- i am not a predction platform maxi, in contrast I know that competition will benefit the whole space @Kalshi has taken some really solid steps to resonate with the crypto audience (funding, new hires, grants, airdrop markets). but the issue is they keep jumping around the main
