neil_ferguson (@neil_ferguson) / X

neil_ferguson

51 posts

neil_ferguson

@neil_ferguson

Infectious disease modeller/epidemiologist. Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

London, England

Joined March 2008

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neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 18, 2020
Sigh. Developed a slight dry but persistent cough yesterday and self isolated even though I felt fine. Then developed high fever at 4am today. There is a lot of COVID-19 in Westminster.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 26, 2020
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 26, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 26, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 22, 2020
I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background - I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics...
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 26, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 19, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
Again, many many thanks for everyone’s very kind support. I was tested given my recent proximity to people leading the UK response. Positive. Which is a strange experience - to be infected by the virus one is modelling 🙄. Still feeling rough, but not awful.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 22, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
Still getting used to personal sharing online! I am doing better thx - gone from flu like symptoms with fever and more 3 days ago to something which feels more like a bad head cold today. Still tired and snuffly but fingers crossed past the worst. Thx++ for all you good wishes.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 18, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
Thank you all so much for your kind messages! I am doing OK - feeling a bit grotty, but in front of my computer 😊
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Apr 25, 2020
I gave my one media interview of the week to unherd. 30 minutes, so quite far-ranging.
unherd.com
Imperial's Neil Ferguson defends lockdown strategy
Earlier this month, Swedish epidemiologist Johan Giesecke claimed in an interview with UnHerd that the UK was wrong to implement its lockdown measures, and singled out Professor Neil Ferguson’s...
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 27, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
Let me be clear. This virus has a lethality substantially in excess of “seasonal” flu. Yes, up to half of those infected might not show symptoms. But that is accounted for in our estimates and always was. There is no credible data supporting the idea that 90% are asymptomatic.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 22, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
I am happy to say that @Microsoft and @GitHub are working with @Imperial_JIDEA and @MRC_Outbreak to document, refactor and extend the code to allow others to use without the multiple days training it would currently require (and which we don’t have time to give)...
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 22, 2020
Replying to @neil_ferguson
They are also working with us to develop a web-based front end to allow public health policy makers from around the world to make use of the model in planning. We hope to make v1 releases of both the source and front end in the next 7-10 days...
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
Mar 27, 2020
Agree. There is legitimate political and social debate about what the right strategy is. But scientists need to focus on what the data tells us, including the uncertainties.
Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
Mar 27, 2020
washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03… Washington Post cuts through the nonsense coming from politically motivated camps @nataliexdean weighs in talking common sense.