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Rachel Thomas
10.2K posts
Rachel Thomas
@math_rachel
R&D at answer ai | fast ai co-founder | past: math PhD, immunology MS, early eng at uber, prof at USF Data Institute
- “Covid zero is impossible with omicron, so what’s the point in even trying to reduce/slow transmission?” My answer: 🧵 1/
- Before 2020, I never wore a mask during flu-season. This is NOT bc I had done an analysis and decided that preventable flu deaths were "acceptable". It is because I didn't know, and if I had known, I would have started wearing a mask during flu season ages ago...
- Replying to @math_rachelMany seem to be assuming that covid provides lasting immunity, even though we already know it does not. Each covid infection raises the risk of creating a new "pre-existing condition" that will make subsequent infections more dangerous 5/
- Replying to @math_rachelEven if EVERYONE does get covid, delaying WHEN we do so has benefits. The longer we can wait, the greater the chance of new treatments being developed, more effective vaccines, better anti-virals, scaling production of paxlovid, etc. 7/
- Replying to @math_rachel(your regular reminder: "mild" covid can still involve damage to the vascular, immune, & central nervous systems) 4/
- Replying to @math_rachelNot everyone is going to get omicron. And the difference between 80% vs 60% (both still very big) of a population catching it would be a huge difference in absolute numbers of people that wind up permanently disabled. 3/
- Replying to @math_rachelDue to bad messaging, many people misunderstand: - Severity & prevalence of LongCOVID - Airborne spread Many may voluntarily choose to change their behavior if they better understood (particularly if given options: free N95s, work-from-home when possible, etc) 9/
- Replying to @math_rachelAdults deserve to be told the truth. Too much public health messaging about covid has been infantilizing, patronizing, & flat-out inaccurate. 8/1/ Can't put it better than @micah_arsham does here. The CDC treats the public like 1st-graders. Their job is to inform & advise the public, warning of any imminent dangers, & they've utterly failed. People will be blind-sided, with grim consequences. x.com/micah_arsham/s…
- Replying to @math_rachelNot everyone's immune systems will be able to take the repeated hits. In a population, getting covid 1x (on average) over the next 2 years vs. 3x (on average) over next 2 years is likely to result in significant differences in how many end up permanently disabled. 6/
- Replying to @math_rachelFalse binaries are harmful, and don’t lead to good reasoning 2/Harmful false binaries: - covid cases either die OR recover - our only options are lockdowns OR no mitigations at all - covid zero OR there's no point reducing transmission - you think vaccines are *all* we need OR you are anti-vaccine
- Replying to @math_rachelIt is ableist to ignore the many people (including some children) who are high health risk and more likely to die or experience extreme illness if they get covid. Again, any reduction in transmission can save lives. 11/Replying to @math_rachelNot everyone is going to get omicron. And the difference between 80% vs 60% (both still very big) of a population catching it would be a huge difference in absolute numbers of people that wind up permanently disabled. 3/
- Replying to @math_rachelThe intervention (vaccines) changed our goal. Vaccines are great at reducing hospitalization & death, but not at reducing transmission. But "mild" cases can still result in long-permanent disability, so reducing transmission remains crucial 10/Replying to @jenbrea and @mattyglesiasIn fact, we aren’t even talking about transmission reduction anymore! Most of the focus is severe disease prevention, because that is what vaccines do. The intervention has shaped the goal. If vaccines did something different, then that would be the goal.
- I don't want empty reassurances about how omicron is peaking, "it's almost over", just push through. This short-term thinking from leaders is exhausting & deadly. 1/
