Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) / X

Kyle Kondik

79.2K posts

Kyle Kondik

@kkondik

American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

DC; [email protected]

Joined February 2011

Pinned
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Oct 27, 2021
My new history of House elections since the 1960s, "The Long Red Thread," is now available. We published an excerpt today that hits on the key trends over the past half century in the House centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Nov 2, 2024
there was a certain "holy s--t" aspect to the 2014, 2016, and 2020 final Selzer polls, but this takes the cake
681K
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Apr 29, 2020
Shutdown protester GOP candidate is losing her state senate primary 61-39 dispatch.com/news/20200414/…
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Nov 12, 2022
Even if 2023 majority not at stake, GA runoff is still really important as you look ahead to 2024 Senate map. Ds could really use an extra seat cushion given how exposed they are next time
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Nov 12, 2022
In a year of exceptionally bad GOP Senate candidates, Masters took the cake IMHO. Totally off-putting and bizarro
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Sep 30, 2020
Man, Wolf Blitzer just said he wouldn't be surprised if this was the last debate
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Nov 5, 2025
Tonight is such a blowout so far that I wonder if it gives some Rs pause about redistricting in states that are still pondering it. They already needed to "stress-test" the districts (and they did in TX-NC-MO, I think, even considering tonight), but still.
947K
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Jun 28, 2020
I had a similar reaction - Trump won Sumter County (the Villages is mostly in that county) by 39 points
This post is unavailable.
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Dec 3, 2020
SurveyUSA has Ossoff 50-48 & Warnock 52-45 in the GA-SEN runoffs this morning. FWIW, same pollster had Biden +2 and Perdue +3 in mid-October (pretty decent finding compared to results) Runoff poll - surveyusa.com/client/PollRep… mid-October poll - surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Sep 19, 2024
CRYSTAL BALL GUBERNATORIAL RATING CHANGE NC-GOV Leans D to Likely D Obviously a fluid situation but Robinson was in bad shape before and worse shape now
149K
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Jun 27, 2018
Six House ratings changes, all in favor of Dems. Comstock (R, VA-10) Toss-up > Leans D Brat (R, VA-7) Leans R > Toss-up Taylor (R, VA-2) Leans R > Toss-up Walters (R, CA-45) Leans R > Toss-up NJ-2 Open (LoBiondo, R) Leans D > Likely D MacArthur (R, NJ-3) Likely R > Leans R
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Oct 4, 2024
Harris 47-44 Rosen 48-41 From solid GOP firm, Tarrance Group thenevadaindependent.com/article/majori…
Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
Oct 4, 2024
I hate to be a tease (actually I really don't), but we have some very interesting Nevada poll results coming tomorrow from one of the country's most respected guys in the field. I wish I could tell you more, but wake up early! cc: @NateSilver538 and EVERYONE ELSE
643K
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Nov 2, 2020
FINAL CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS -- THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Biden 321, Trump 217 Biden restores some of the Dem Midwest strength and breaks new ground in Sun Belt
Kyle Kondik
@kkondik
Mar 1, 2020
Buttigieg dropping out is a great illustration of how detached IA & NH have become from the Democratic Party's reality. He did great in both and basically got nothing from them going forward.