Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) / X

Joshua Smithley

7,913 posts

Joshua Smithley

@blockedfreq

Aviation enthusiast w/ degrees in Aviation Management & Airline Operations @ Purdue University. Election junkie. #Pennsylvania elections guy & data analyst.

pennsylvaniapowered.substack.com

Joined July 2019

Pinned
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 5, 2025
🚨 Projection: Dems sweep the three seats up for retention on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Donohue Retained? ✅ Dougherty Retained? ✅ Wecht Retained? ✅ The Court will maintain its 5-2 Democratic supermajority.
67K
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 5, 2024
Well, this isn't going to be a low or moderate turnout election. I can tell you that much.
841K
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Oct 24, 2024
New PA bellwether county releases from @muhlenberg_poll's recent PA-07 poll. 🦅 POTUS Northampton 🔵 Harris: 51% (+4) 🔴 Trump: 47% Lehigh 🔵 Harris: 52% (+7) 🔴 Trump: 45% Northampton and Lehigh were 49.8-49.1 and 53.2-45.6 for Biden, respectively.
1.3M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 6, 2024
🚨 PHILADELPHIA COUNTY FIRST DROP 🦅 POTUS 🔵 Harris: 99,295 (87.23%) 🔴 Trump: 13,177 (11.58% 🏛️ PA SEN 🔵 Casey: 97,070 (86.24%) 🔴 McCormick: 12,474 (11.08%) Also early over here, but so far, the necessary targets are being met.
1.1M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Oct 21, 2024
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 10 📥 921,720 votes cast 🔵 DEM: 580,073 - 54.2% returned 🔴 GOP: 254,424 - 46.4% returned 🟡 IND: 87,223 - 38.8% returned VBM Splits: 🔵 62.9% / 🔴 27.6% / 🟡 9.5% 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+325,649 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+7.8 Thoughts ⬇️
1.3M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 3, 2024
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 21 📥 1,777,019 votes cast 🔵 DEM: 990,189 - 82.5% returned 🔴 GOP: 583,791 - 81.6% returned 🟡 IND: 203,039 - 72.0% returned VBM Splits: 🔵 55.7% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.4% 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+406,398 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+0.9 Thoughts⬇️
928K
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 5, 2024
🦅 Pennsylvania - Final Thoughts It's been a long election cycle with ups and downs, but my gut feelings + data are about the same as they were in August. I think VP Harris is favored to win PA by 2 pts, give or take 1 while Senator Casey wins by 4-5. Let's break down why. ⬇️
1.1M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 8, 2023
I don't think people understand the massacre Republicans suffered down-ballot in PA tonight. Obviously, PA SC was the focus and Allegheny had specific local factors, but Dems swept almost everything in winnable races from school boards, commissioners, etc. Especially in SEPA.
615K
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Oct 7, 2024
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day ONE 📥 137,654 votes cast 🔵 DEM: 100,845 - 10.7% returned 🔴 GOP: 26,148 - 6.2% returned 🟡 IND: 10,661 - 6.1% returned VBM Splits: 🔵 72.6% / 🔴 19% / 🟡 8.4% DEM firewall: +74,697 Thoughts ⬇️
984K
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 2, 2024
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 20 📥 1,742,908 votes cast 🔵 DEM: 973,363 - 81.1% returned 🔴 GOP: 572,481 - 80.1% returned 🟡 IND: 197,064 - 69.9% returned VBM Splits: 🔵 55.9% / 🔴 32.8% / 🟡 11.3% 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+400,882 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+1 Thoughts⬇️
1.1M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 4, 2024
Ok, buckle in. Here's how Pennsylvania is going to play out tomorrow. You'll want your notifications on since I'll be live tweeting updates throughout the day regarding turnout in certain areas, new developments, etc. Once the polls close, this is where things get interesting.
1.1M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 4, 2024
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Election Eve 📥 1,790,319 votes cast 🔵 DEM: 997,450 - 83.1% returned 🔴 GOP: 587,546 - 82.1% returned 🟡 IND: 205,323 - 72.8% returned VBM Splits: 🔵 55.7% / 🔴 32.8% / 🟡 11.5% 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+409,904 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+1
1.1M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Oct 25, 2024
At first, I thought I was being paranoid when some of those numbers didn’t feel right as new apps were coming in across certain areas of the state. And sure enough… lol. This is one of the biggest voter registration fraud cases in PA I’ve ever seen.
Commissioner Josh Parsons
@CommissionerJP
Oct 25, 2024
BREAKING: Lancaster County team finds and stops suspected voter registration fraud operation. Press conference at 11:30 AM. Livestream can be found here: vimeo.com/event/1970439
1.5M
Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
Nov 5, 2024
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Election Day 1 📥 1,877,992 votes cast 🔵 DEM: 1,037,783 - 86.4% returned 🔴 GOP: 618,205 - 86.4% returned 🟡 IND: 222,004 - 78.6% returned VBM Splits: 🔵 55.3% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.8% 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+419,578 📈 Return Edge: (=)
844K