Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) / X

Serenity

7,204 posts

Serenity

@aleabitoreddit

I only use X, beware of imposters. AI/Semi Supply Chain Analyst Not investment advice, DYODD. Sharing personal thought process on supply chain bottlenecks.

NFA

Joined July 2025

Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Nov 3, 2025
The Neocloud List got updated: $IREN - IREN secured a $9.7B GPU cloud contract with Microsoft, including 20% upfront prepayment, to deploy NVIDIA GB300s over five years. $CIFR - CIFR secured a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Neocloud
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Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 2, 2025
I first bought $HOOD at $11.47 and watched it grow 1000%+ to a 125B+ MC. Scaling from $150M to 1B quarterly revenue over years. I thought this was insane until I saw $NBIS. This 30B company is about to go from $100m quarterly revenue to $1.5-2B quarterly revenue the next year
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 2, 2025
As expected, with META and their recent 14B deal with CRWV + MSFT with their 17B deal with $NBIS, billions to trillions will pour into Neoclouds from Mag7 when they're unable to handle new AI compute. Expects companies like AWS, ORCL and others to make more deals soon with
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Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 21, 2025
Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is
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Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Nov 2, 2025
Neocloud Ecosystem Cheat Sheet Part 1/2: Bullet Point Positive vs. Negatives. Full List by Marketcap: $CRWV ($66.2B) $NBIS ($32.85B) $IREN ($16.52B) $APLD ($9.69B) $RIOT ($7.34B) $CIFR ($7.3B) $WULF ($6.36B) $HUT($5.39B) $CLSK ($5.01B) $HIVE ($1.74B CAD) $WYFI ($1.29B)
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 27, 2025
The Neocloud thesis aged well. 1 month later: $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 →
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Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 26, 2025
To settle the Neocloud debate: $NBIS > $IREN + others. Based on the $ORCL report, NBIS whitepaper, $CRWV acquisitions, and other factors, I decided to consolidate millions into Nebius and sell off miners like $CIFR. 📏 Gross Margins > GW capacity Here's the math + why:
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 25, 2025
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS
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Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Nov 13, 2025
We're seeing a sector crash in high-beta AI stocks, with names down 30-45%+ in 1M & 10%+ today. This includes direct beneficiaries of Mag7 Capex : - Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR. - TeraWulf ( $WULF ): <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL - Iren ( $IREN
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263K
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 22, 2025
Added $200k worth of $NBIS leaps at $98.8, December $105 2026 strike. Nebius dropping 30%+ in a week from $140 to $97 might make you second-guess yourself, but it’s times like these where conviction matters most. If you understand the fundamentals and sector, this is a gift.
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162K
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 31, 2025
Markets are starting to price in: A divergence between AWS-style full-stack Neoclouds like $NBIS and miners such as $CIFR, $BITF, $CLSK, and others. This is the reason I sold off $IREN $WULF and others, and consolidated into Nebius. Why? 💹 Margins > ⚡️Capacity. Just today:
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 28, 2025
The harsh reality is: Many of these HPC miner pivots will fail. The lack of asymmetrical upside is why I sold off miners like $CIFR, $IREN, $WYFI, and $WULF and into full-stack AWS Neoclouds like $NBIS However, miners that pivot well like $CRWV have very high upside 📈 Why?
166K
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 28, 2025
The harsh reality is: Many of these HPC miner pivots will fail. The lack of asymmetrical upside is why I sold off miners like $CIFR, $IREN, $WYFI, and $WULF and into full-stack AWS Neoclouds like $NBIS However, miners that pivot well like $CRWV have very high upside 📈 Why?
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 27, 2025
The Neocloud thesis aged well. 1 month later: $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 →
316K
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 25, 2025
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS
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258K
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 30, 2025
I'm researching new stocks that actually look interesting - rare lately There's no need to paywall or gatekeep new stocks like others So just going to share them: 1. $LGN - DC buildout. Mag7 like $APPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $TSLA, $AMZN as clients. 2. $LYC.AX - Sole
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126K
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Oct 27, 2025
The Neocloud thesis aged well. 1 month later: $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 →
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387K
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Nov 12, 2025
If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction. Remember this: $NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins. Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Nov 12, 2025
Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September. From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT: ~$355.00/share (+248.04%) off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected Here's the updated metrics:
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Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
Nov 1, 2025
Replying to @DudeWhoInvests
With all due respect, there’s basically zero substance or analysis from these types of posts. You’ve done this with $FI yesterday saying “CHEAP” then this again with $NVO. Saying something is cheap with useless explanations is how followers end up blindly losing money.
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