Pinned
- Both delegations were in Doha at the same time. Next round of US-Iran peace talks by July 31 is sitting at 70¢. Witkoff and Kushner met Qatar's PM to lay groundwork. Iran's deputy FM led a delegation met Qatar's PM and mediators. Rules say - Indirect in-person diplomacy
- Netanyahu just said it himself: Lebanon recognizes Israel, Israel recognizes Lebanon. The market - Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?:Lebanon is sitting at 6¢. But rules say - Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a
- Will Maria Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? pumped from 29¢ to 46¢ in the past 24 hours. She hinted at returning to Venezuela and requested U.S. assistance to return to Venezuela after the deadly earthquakes. What is your read?
- The next US-Iran round is confirmed: June 28-29, Switzerland JD Vance - lower level teams are going The rules exclude exactly this - technical, staff-level meetings But the market is pumping for July 10 and sitting at 31¢. What is your ready?
- US forces enter venezuela again by june 30 jumped from 2¢ to 85¢ in a couple of hours. Troops are now being used to airlift humanitarian supplies. The market doesn't say military re-entry What is your read?
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? YES is sitting at 2.4¢. Oman and Iran just confirmed it in a joint official statement. Four separate outlets just confirmed the same thing - WSJ, Bloomberg Tax, Reuters, El Economista. Citing the MOU directly:
- "Trump agrees to accept continued enrichment of uranium by Iran?" is sitting at 4¢. The only evidence: one NYT phone interview. Trump clearly stated: "For nonmilitary purposes. Forever." What is your read?
- AP, Reuters, WSJ, CNN - all interpreted "status quo" as Iran agreeing to zero enrichment Iran ends enrichment by June 30? - YES is sitting at 43¢ but Iran's FM said months before the deal - Zero enrichment is not on the table and the mirror market - Trump agrees toTrade your conviction now -
- CENTCOM confirms no troop withdrawal The market still trades 80¢ YES What's your read?Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports. All U.S. military blockade
- Friday talks in Switzerland still on.U.S. AND IRAN DISCUSS MOVING UP SIGNING OF DEAL, SOURCES SAY Donald Trump’s administration, Iran, and mediators are discussing moving up the signing of a memorandum of understanding to as early as Wednesday via remote signing, sources say. If confirmed, provisions on reopening
