Pinned
Our 2026 midterms model is out and will be hosted at @TheArgumentMag.
Projections as of 6/19:
House: 🟦 85% (229D-206R)
Senate: 🟥 57% (50R-50D)
Split Ticket
1,392 posts
Split Ticket
@SplitTicket_
Political analysis at your fingertips. By @lxeagle17, @hwlavellemaps, @Thorongil16, @politicsmaps, @maxtmcc | 🎤 ✉️ [email protected]
Joined November 2021
- RACE CALL: Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, wins a second term as governor of Kentucky.
- Democrats have retained control of the Virginia State Senate, denying Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin a legislative trifecta. Democrats have been projected to win 21 seats.
- In Virginia’s SD-16 (Leans D) we project that Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg will defeat incumbent Republican Senator Siobhan Dunnavant. This is the first Democratic flip of the night.
- Our Senate rating for the Georgia runoff begins at Leans Democratic.
- Race call: Democratic-aligned judge Janet Protasiewicz has defeated conservative Daniel Kelly for a seat on the court, flipping it to a 4-3 liberal majority. Democrats flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
- RACE CALL: Pat Ryan (D) HOLDS #NY19 (Biden +1.5) against Marc Molinaro (R) in a seat vacated by Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, defying expectations of a red-wave Biden midterm flip.
- Democrat Donna Deegan wins in the Jacksonville, FL mayoral race, flipping the seat from the Republicans. Jacksonville is currently the largest city in the US with a Republican mayor, having a population of just over one million.
- RACE CALL: With 88.5% of precincts reporting, Brandon Johnson takes the lead, securing his bid to be the next mayor of Chicago, defeating Paul Vallas. This represents a progressive victory over a police union-endorsed moderate in the nation's third-largest city.
- Republicans have officially lost their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. Democratic wins in HD-64 (Cole) and HD-84 (Clark) move the party up to 50 seats in the chamber. Democrats are expected to secure an outright majority soon.
- Race call: Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) will win renomination with over 50% of the vote, obviating the need for a runoff. This is a blow to former President Trump who focused his efforts on unseating the Secretary.
- Race call: Madison Cawthorn loses the GOP renomination for #NC11 to state senator Chuck Edwards. The beleaguered incumbent was hit with a series of scandals, and it looks like they have taken their electoral toll.
