Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) / X

Robert A. Pape

1,134 posts

Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

UChicago Professor of Political Science directs Chicago Project on Security & Threats, author Bombing To Win and writes substack: The Escalation Trap.

Chicago

cpost.uchicago.edu

Joined September 2021

Pinned
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
14h
Everyone is asking whether the latest attack near Hormuz means the Iran War is escalating again They're asking the wrong question The real question is whether the balance of power in the Middle East has already changed I call this The Pape Test
111K
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 13, 2025
The big question: Why would Iran abandon nuclear weapons if Israel can attack the country and its leaders for any reason Israel wants? Unless the US answers this question, any future negotiations with Iran are unlikely to produce meaningful results.
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 22, 2025
Big question: why would Iran think US and Israel would stick to any peace deal, after two US , Israeli surprise attacks?
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Dec 6, 2023
My new Foreign Affairs article explains why Israel's current strategy to defeat Hamas is doomed to failure and presents a viable alternative:
Israel’s Failed Bombing Campaign in Gaza
From foreignaffairs.com
844K
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 23, 2025
The deal that would matter: Iran freezes enrichment and accepts NPT inspections and Israel joins NPT and freezes its nuclear weapons and follows tge treaty. Israel is not now a member of NPT, but wants Iran to accept it??
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 13, 2025
Israeli strikes on Iran are falling into that I call the "smart bomb trap" - overconfidence in precision air strikes that ignores powerful nationalist reactions of defiance leading to a costly quigmire. The US fell into the trap vs Iraq in 2003. Iran is more dangerous.
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 15, 2025
Israeli strikes predictably hitting Tehran residential areas. But as Iran-Iraq “war of the cities” and many Western bombing campaigns show, punishing civilians won’t cause Iran to back down. Iran nuclear weapons getting closer by the day:
Israel and Iran broaden attacks as conflict enters fourth day | CNN
From cnn.com
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 22, 2025
Surprisingly modest damage to Fordo according to satellite images: Fordo hits, now compared to April imagery Planet Labs PBC (x.com/avischarf/stat…)
GIF
avi scharf
@avischarf
Jun 22, 2025
Replying to @avischarf
Fordo hits, now compared to April imagery Planet Labs PBC
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 23, 2025
Trump's "Make Iran Great Again" post calling for regime change is dangerously escalating a powder keg. Russian officials already discussing foreign nuclear weapons going to Iran.
Russian leader claims multiple countries prepped to provide Iran nuclear weapons following US...
From foxnews.com
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 22, 2025
Tonights US air attack vs Iran's established nuclear facilities is only the beginning and won't prevent Iran from developing its nuclear program in secret. US has no way to assess damage to uranium stockpiles without being on the ground.
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 22, 2025
6 bunker-busters probably did penetrate Fordo's deep bunkers. Problem is that much nuclear material likely removed before strikes. This coukd have happened days ago and could be anywhere in Iran, 4 x size of Iraq.
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Nov 11, 2021
I am honored to receive the 2021 Thomas B. Hagen Dignitas Award, which is given to Erie citizens who've made a profound impact on society.
'Terrorism expert,' Obama campaign advisor credits Erie roots for world passion
From goerie.com
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jul 22, 2025
It's now evident that the outcomes predicted in my Foreign Affairs article about the strategic consequences of bombing Iran have materialized. The act of bombing has not only bolstered support for the Iranian regime but also proved ineffective in eradicating Iran's enriched
Israel’s Futile Air War
From foreignaffairs.com
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Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Jun 21, 2024
To see why Hamas is stronger today than before October 7, see my new article in Foreign Affairs, "Hamas is Winning: Why Israel's Failing Strategy Makes Its Enemy Stronger":
Hamas Is Winning
From foreignaffairs.com
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