Polemic Paine (@PolemicTMM) / X

Polemic Paine

51.7K posts

Polemic Paine

@PolemicTMM

Team Macro Man, City veteran, investor, trader and lover of wild places. Fascinated by behavioural biases.

On the financial beach

polemicpaine.substack.com

Joined April 2014

Pinned
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Nov 2, 2016
Replying to @paulkrugman
This is the 1st cited reference I have received from a Nobel Laureate and I will wear it with pride, even if just twitter. Thx!
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Apr 8, 2022
Thanks to whoever originated this. Nailed it.
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Sep 15, 2022
Ethereum down 6% So what exactly has it merged with? Turkish lira?
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Nov 8, 2025
No civil service or state employee defined benefit pension was harmed in the making of this policy..
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
Nov 7, 2025
🚨 NEW: Rachel Reeves will use the Budget to impose a £2k-a-year limit on how much salary can go into a pension before paying National Insurance The move will raise £2bn and hit salary sacrifice schemes [@thetimes]
92K
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Oct 29, 2025
Awww. They changed the headline overnight.
115K
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Nov 4, 2022
Prediction. One day we'll look back and see that the Truss/KK plan was, in reality, the only path on offer out of the economic swamp the UK is inexorably heading deeper into. BoE and current Tory plans are the morphine of palliative care rather than cure.
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Sep 22, 2021
China's economy can be about to collapse longer than you can remain short.
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Sep 28, 2022
Been out with a friend who is board member of a UK pension fund and advisor to many others. LDI was an allowable risk. So everyone took it as a way to leverage to make underfunded liabilities look funded. Pushed by the structure creators and backed by the big consultants
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Apr 1, 2025
Replying to @vonderleyen
EU tariffs on US imports as of Dec '24
22K
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
May 25, 2020
Time for my annual check. Has anyone found a use for Bitcoin yet?
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Apr 12, 2022
Bonds down, equities down, inflation up. Forget investing, the best trade is to get a job.
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Apr 27, 2025
Replying to @MichaelAArouet
Actual data... "Share of married women who say they cheat or are found out". UK could just be more discrete!
42K
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Nov 6, 2025
Parallels between the 2008 Credit Crisis and Today’s AI Valuations Structural Echoes 1. Off-balance-sheet leverage. 2006–08: banks warehoused mortgage risk in SIVs. 2025: hyperscalers are funding AI data centres through SPVs and JVs that sit off the parent balance sheet. Meta’s
Deutsche Bank explores hedges for data centre exposure as AI lending booms
From ft.com
138K
Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
Mar 29, 2021
If Nomura has dropped $2 billion on mismatch between execution on margin call and/or remaining contractual risk then the knock on effect is going to be every Prime Broker credit debt going loopy and tightening on margin requirements This could be the great deleveraging.