📢Global Carbon Budget 2024📢
Despite some predicting a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions, we estimate growth of 0.8% [-0.3% to 1.9%] in 2024. Maybe a peak next year?
Is it all bad news, or can we find some good news?
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A very cool animation of atmospheric CO₂ for the year 2021:
* Fossil fuels, orange
* Burning biomass, red
* Land ecosystems, green
* Ocean, blue
For a well-mixed GHG, it takes some time for CO₂ to distribute globally from the sources in the North!
svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5110
“The only way we can keep below 1.5°C or 2°C is to stop emitting fossil fuels”...
It could take hundreds of years to add enough mature forests to remove what we will emit in 20 years at the current rate of 40GtCO₂/yr.
@StephenLeahy
People say ‘Oh the children are going to save us’
"But no, we aren’t. We are too young to be able to do that. We don’t have time to wait for us to grow up and fix this in the future. The people who are in power now need to do this now." @GretaThunbergft.com/content/4df1b9…
Just a reminder that the only time we seem to be able to reduce CO₂ emissions is in times of economic crisis...
The challenge for climate policy is to reduce emissions without collapsing the economy (as opposed to being agnostic to growth)
globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/
Did you know that 2021 saw the second biggest absolute increase in fossil CO₂ emissions ever recorded?
The biggest increase was in 2010, the year after the Global Financial Crisis.
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The annual atmospheric CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa averaged 411.5 ppm in 2019
Year-on-year, the CO₂ concentration continues to rise in line with our growing CO₂ emissions...
It was only 2016 that we crossed 400ppm!
folk.uio.no/roberan/t/MLO_…
Three Decades of Climate Mitigation
What have we achieved?
* 60% rise in fossil CO₂ emissions
* Half of all fossil CO₂ emitted (since 1990)
* Developed countries dominate CO₂ emissions per person
Read why... annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.11…
According to the #IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, to limit global warming to '1.5°C with no or limited overshoot', then global CO2 emissions decline:
* 48% in 6 years
* 80% in 14 years
* 99% in 24 years
(thanks @_david_ho_ for reminding me to remind people)
ipcc.ch/report/sixth-a…
"CO₂ emissions must decline sharply if the world is to meet the ‘well below 2°C’ mark set out in the Paris Agreement, & every year with growing emissions makes that target even more difficult to reach", says @robbie_andrew
cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/news/…
Fig: folk.uio.no/roberan/GCB201…
💥HUGE NEWS FOR CLIMATE💥
There @IEA with a clear message: "There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway"
If you invest in new coal, oil, or gas, you do so knowing it is inconsistent with <1.5°C.
iea.org/reports/net-ze…
We were wrong...
Some of us thought fossil CO₂ emissions were nearing a peak, the dynamics were there (coal to gas & renewables), but they just seem to keep going up, even with the help of COVID.
What are the forces that keep pushing emissions up?
washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…