How accurate is Polymarket?
89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution.
Fun fact.
78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
Analyzed 52,158 Polymarkets at 12hrs before resolution
here is what I found
>polymarket is within 2-3% of the actual outcome
> its most accurate at 80% odds (variance of 0.3%)
> least accurate at 50% odds (with a variance of 6.9%)
Prediction Market Arbitrage
How it works:
we need to buy yes it will happen and no it wont happen for under a dollar in the same market.
In this example we are buying yes it will happen for $0.19 and no it wont happen for $0.77 for a total of cost $0.96
The thing is ONE of
Twitter is a game of greater fool theory
Most Influencers don't even trade
Change your feed and follow some real traders on prediction markets
@Domahhhh best trader I know
@25usdc he started with $25 now at 26k pnl
@CarOnPolymarket 650k pnl
@RookeBrollins 224k pnl
@iabvek best
