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Manifest 2026 tickets are out!
Early bird tickets are available at a discount through the 18th for $550.🎟️
Volunteer tickets are also available!
(links & info in thread)
Manifold
9,490 posts
Manifold
@ManifoldMarkets
Bet on everything. Get accurate real-time odds on AI, politics, news, and more.
- Manifold reposted
Was at Manifest this weekend, a prediction market/AI/rationalist "conference" with lots of weird goings-on. I have a lot of thoughts on that experience that I might post lol. But one of the topics I had fun discussing was the combination of the big two topics -- whether AI wasToday Conspectus launched our first Situation Room: the Iran War Room. We model the people who move markets and geopolitical events, digging below signal to determine their incentives, constraints, networks, behavioral patterns, and decision-making logic. Outcomes are - Manifold reposted
if you are at lighthaven for manifest i'm giving a talk authored by @lightcellenergy and claude ̶f̶a̶b̶l̶e̶ opus 4.8 and called "how to build a dyson sphere across 60(!) orders of magnitude" at 11am at the cantor's diagonal hall.
- Manifold reposted
Most young men at our Manifest matchmaking session said they wanted kids after the singularity - Manifold reposted
Last Sunday, I won the poker tournament at Manifest, an event dedicated to prediction markets. I'm told people at Manifest are good at gambling. The prize is a $3k charitable donation. I'd like to give it to @StopAI_Info or @StopTheAIRace but they don't have 501c3's set up :/
- I'm about to make so much mana.
- Manifold reposted
If you're going to Manifest, check out my talk on prediction markets. Next steps from my ReStud/MS papers about markets inside organizations. Overview/links below.
- Manifold reposted
Excited to speak on open source AI science at @ManifoldMarkets Manifest this weekend but not as excited as I am to attend; excelling at impossible-to-select-from-parallel-sessions once again: > manifest.is > waypoint.lighthaven.space/e/manifest-202… - Manifold reposted
The safety debate has spent a decade asking whether AGI will be aligned. @sreeramkannan's argument: that's the wrong demon. Even perfectly aligned AGI concentrates power if it lives inside 3 buildings in San Francisco. Alignment without coordination is just obedient
- Manifold reposted
The MNX team built @ManifoldMarkets, one of the best places on the internet. Super bullish on AI futures trading in general, and MNX is going to be the place to do it. Congrats!
