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Science needs downvotes

April 13, 2026 Ruben Arslan Leave a comment

A bug bounty module in grants would give criticism a leg up The Soviet Union was good at producing shoes.…

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Posted in: Error culture, Metrics Filed under: bug bounty, error culture, mistakes
THINK INSIDE THE BOX

Think inside the box, part 1: The guy Euclidean distance told you not to worry about

March 9, 2026 Ruben Arslan Leave a comment

Romance could be so simple if only we were two-dimensional. You just find the closest available partner and go for…

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Posted in: Causal inference, Crosspost, Measurement, Statistics Filed under: causal inference, measurement, simulation, statistics
Three horseman: age, period, cohort

One approach to the age-period-cohort problem: Just don’t.

February 13, 2026 Julia Rohrer 2 Comments

Just to cause yourself more problems, you seek for something. But there is no need for you to seek anything.…

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Posted in: Causal inference, Statistics

If you have two measures of the same confounder, you can just include both of them in your regression model

October 13, 2025 Julia Rohrer 3 Comments

Corrigendum: There was an embarrassing mistake in the SEM part of the original version of this blog post which has…

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Posted in: Causal inference, Measurement, Statistics, Teaching

What’s in a correlation?

July 28, 2025 Julia Rohrer 2 Comments

Correlation may not imply causation, but let’s just ignore that for a second. Correlations are standardized effect size metrics and…

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Posted in: Metrics, Statistics, Teaching
Iceberg with text superimposed, from top to bottom: (1) Yes, you probably do want those random intercepts (2) Time-varying confounding (3) The "correct" time lag (4) It's only prediction! Why you heff to be mad.

Reviewer notes: So you’re interested in “lagged effects.”

June 25, 2025 Julia Rohrer Leave a comment

In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to…

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Posted in: Causal inference, Reviewer notes, Statistics

Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.

March 20, 2025 Julia Rohrer 16 Comments

Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect…

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Posted in: Causal inference, Statistics, Teaching

Controlling for careless responding requires causal justification

February 18, 2025 Taym Alsalti Leave a comment

Guest post by Taym Alsalti. If you want a citable version, see this preprint with Jamie Cummins & Ruben Arslan.…

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Posted in: Uncategorized
Inspirational quote: A goal is not always meant to be reached, it often serves simply as something to aim at. Bruce Lee (or maybe somebody else)

Reviewer notes: Avoid any ambiguity about analysis aims

February 17, 2025 Julia Rohrer Leave a comment

For any central statistical analysis that you report in your manuscript, it should be absolutely clear for readers why the…

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Posted in: Causal inference, Reviewer notes, Teaching Filed under: peer review

Reviewer notes: In a randomized experiment, the pre-post differences are not effect estimates

January 22, 2025 Julia Rohrer 4 Comments

Reviewer notes are a new short format with brief explanations of basic ideas that might come in handy during (for…

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Posted in: Causal inference, Reviewer notes, Statistics, Teaching

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  • Science needs downvotes
  • Think inside the box, part 1: The guy Euclidean distance told you not to worry about
  • One approach to the age-period-cohort problem: Just don’t.
  • If you have two measures of the same confounder, you can just include both of them in your regression model
  • What’s in a correlation?

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