SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Internet Trends
201
Mary Meeker
June 11 @ Code 2019
INTERNET TRENDS 2019
Mary Meeker
June 11 @ Code 2019
bondcap.com/report/it19
2
Internet Trends
2019
Internet Trends 2019
1) Users
2) E-Commerce + Advertising
3) Usage…
4) Freemium Business Models
5) Data Growth
6) …Usage
7) Work
8) Education
9) Immigration + USA Inc.
10) Healthcare
11) China (Provided by Hillhouse Capital)
3
Internet Trends
2019
Thanks
Bond Partners
Michael Brogan & Ansel Parikh helped steer ideas & did a lot of heavy lifting. Noah Knauf,
Collin Ebert, Jesse Ellingworth, Everett Randle, Nancy Xiao, Daegwon Chae, Paul Vronsky &
Juliet de Baubigny also dug in & were more than on call with help.
Hillhouse Capital
Liang Wu & colleagues’ contribution of the China section provides an overview of the world’s
largest market of Internet users.
Participants in Evolution of Internet Connectivity
From creators to consumers who keep us on our toes 24x7 & the people who directly help us
prepare the report. And, Kara & team, thanks for continuing to do what you do so well.
4
Internet Trends
2019
Context…
We use data to tell stories of business-related trends we focus on. We hope others take the ideas, build
on them & make them better.
At 3.8B, the number of Internet users comprises more than half the world’s population. When markets
reach mainstream, new growth is harder to find as evinced by declining new smartphone shipments in
2018. While E-Commerce continues to gain share vs. physical retail, growth rates are slowing. While
Internet advertising growth is solid & innovation is healthy, there are areas where customer acquisition
costs may be rising to unsustainable levels.
While Internet user growth is slowing, global innovation & competition continue to drive product
improvements, new types of usage & monetization – especially in areas of digital video, voice,
wearables, on-demand + local services & traditionally underserved markets. Outside of USA, we focus
on especially high growth & innovation in data-driven / direct fulfillment & financial services. We highlight
massive global usage changes related to the evolution of images & interactive gaming as
communications tools & the broad emergence of freemium businesses at scale.
The rapid rise of gathered / analyzed digital data is often core to the holistic success of the fastest
growing & most successful companies of our time around the world. Context-rich data can help
businesses provide consumers with increasingly personalized products & services that can often be
obtained at lower prices & delivered more efficiently. This, in turn, can drive higher customer satisfaction.
Better data-driven tools can improve the ability for consumers to communicate directly & indirectly with
businesses & regulators.
Core constituents (consumers / businesses / regulators) are increasingly drinking from a data firehose &
management challenges continue to rise for all parties. Broad awareness of challenges (& related
vigorous / heated debates) can be the first step in driving change.
5
Internet Trends
2019
…Context
Consumers are aware of concerns about Internet usage overload & are taking steps to reduce usage –
leading USA-based Internet platforms have rolled out tools to help monitor usage & social media usage
growth appears to be decelerating following a period of strong growth. Privacy & problematic content
concerns are also top-of-mind & are following similar patterns.
Owing to social media amplification, reveals / actions / reactions about events can occur quickly –
resulting in both good & bad outcomes. In markets where online real-time rating systems exist,
accountability can be improved vs. offline options as consumers & businesses interact directly while
regulators can also benefit.
Rapidly expanding connectivity has helped amplify voices of good & bad actors. This has brought new
focus to an age-old challenge for regulators around the world – finding the most effective ways to amplify
good & minimize bad, often resulting in different regional interpretations & strategies.
As Internet systems become increasingly sophisticated, data-rich & mission critical, so has the opportunity
for cyber attacks. We are in a new era of cyber security where technology issues are increasingly
intermixed with international diplomacy & defense.
We focus on the impact of the Internet on work (via on-demand services & remote options), education &
healthcare – the materiality of current trends imply inflections are occurring. We update USA trending
around government finances & the importance of immigration to the technology sector.
The Hillhouse Capital team provides insights into China – the largest market of Internet users & a leader
in innovation / scale.
6
Internet Trends
2019
INTERNET USERS =
@ >50% GLOBAL PENETRATION…
NEW GROWTH REMAINS HARDER TO FIND
7
Internet Trends
2019
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency /
InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
Global Internet User Growth =
Solid But Slowing +6% vs. +7% Y/Y
0%
9%
18%
0
2B
4B
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
Internet
Users,
Global
(Blue
Bar)
Internet Users vs. Y/Y Growth
8
Internet Trends
2019
Global New Smartphone Unit Shipments =
Declining -4% vs. 0% Y/Y
Source: Katy Huberty @ Morgan Stanley (3/19), IDC.
New Smartphone Unit Shipments vs. Y/Y Growth
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
0
0.4B
0.8B
1.2B
1.6B
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
New
Smartphone
Shipments,
Global
Android iOS Other
0%
9
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet Users =
3.8B >50% of Population
24%
51%
0%
35%
70%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Internet
Penetration,
Global Internet Penetration, 2018
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency /
InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
10
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet Users =
Asia Pacific Leads in Users + Potential
89%
62%
32%
78%
48%
0 3B 6B
North America
South America &
Carribean
Africa & Middle East
Europe
Asia Pacific
Population
Internet Users Non-Internet Users
Internet Users by Region, 2018
Asia Pacific
(15%)
Europe
Africa & Middle East
Latin America & Caribbean
North America
53% of Global Internet Users
48% Internet User Penetration in Region
15%
78%
13%
32%
10%
62%
9%
89%
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency /
InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
11
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet Users =
China @ 21% of Total...India @ 12%...USA @ 8%
0 0.8B 1.6B
Turkey
France
Nigeria
Iran (I.R.)
United Kingdom
The Philippines
Germany
Mexico
Russia
Japan
Brazil
Indonesia
United States
India
China
Internet Users Non-Internet Users
Internet Users – Top Countries, 2018
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census
Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency /
InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
12
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet Market Capitalization Leaders =
USA Stable @ 18 of 30…China Stable @ 7 of 30
USA stable at 18 of 30 refers to the fact that 19 USA companies were in the top 30 using same parameters in 2018. China in 2018 = 8 of 30. Source: CapitaIIQ data collected 6/7/19.
Note: % change only applies to companies that were publicly traded on 6/7/16, private valuations not taken into account. Reflects a global list of publicly traded companies, some companies
(e.g., Meituan Dianping) derive the majority of their revenue from one country. Companies selected are considered to be ‘pureplay’ Internet companies that do not derive a significant portion
of revenues / profits from other business lines. Example companies that would be included otherwise = Reliance Industries (Refining), AT&T (Telecom), & Naspers (Television).
Rank
2019 Company Region
Market Cap Value ($B)
% Change
6/7/19B 6/7/16B
1 Microsoft USA $1,007B $410B +146%
2 Amazon USA 888 343 +159%
3 Apple USA 875 540 +62%
4 Alphabet USA 741 497 +49%
5 Facebook USA 495 340 +46%
6 Alibaba China 402 195 +106%
7 Tencent China 398 206 +93%
8 Netflix USA 158 43 +266%
9 Adobe USA 136 50 +174%
10 PayPal USA 134 46 +190%
11 Salesforce USA 125 56 +123%
12 Booking.com USA 77 67 +15%
13 Uber USA 75 -- --
14 Recruit Holdings Japan 52 20 +167%
15 ServiceNow USA 51 12 +316%
16 Workday USA 48 16 +197%
17 Meituan Dianping China 44 -- --
18 JD.com China 39 32 +22%
19 Baidu China 38 60 (36%)
20 Activision Blizzard USA 35 28 +25%
21 Shopify Canada 34 2 +1,297%
22 NetEase China 33 23 +44%
23 eBay USA 33 28 +19%
24 Atlassian Australia 32 5 +509%
25 MercadoLibre Argentina 30 6 +388%
26 Twitter USA 29 11 +173%
27 Square USA 29 3 +808%
28 Electronic Arts USA 29 23 +25%
29 Xiaomi China 28 -- --
30 Spotify Sweden 25 -- --
Total $6,119 $3,064
13
Internet Trends
2019
Global Market Capitalization Leaders =
USA Stable @ 23 of 30…Technology Stable @ 9 of 30
USA stable at 23 of 30 refers to the fact that 21 USA companies were in the top 30 using same parameters in 2018. Technology in 2018 = 10 of 30.
Source: CapitaIIQ data collected 6/7/19. Reflects a global list of publicly traded companies, some companies (e.g., ICBC) derive the majority of their revenue from one country.
Rank
2019 Company Sector Region
Market Cap Value ($B)
% Change
6/7/19B 6/7/16B
1 Microsoft Technology USA $1,007B $410B +146%
2 Amazon Technology USA 888 343 +159%
3 Apple Technology USA 875 540 +62%
4 Alphabet Technology USA 741 497 +49%
5 Berkshire Hathaway Financial Services USA 505 350 +44%
6 Facebook Technology USA 495 340 +46%
7 Alibaba Technology China 402 195 +106%
8 Tencent Technology China 398 206 +93%
9 Visa Financial Services USA 372 192 +94%
10 Johnson & Johnson Healthcare USA 368 318 +16%
11 JPMorgan Financial Services USA 354 239 +48%
12 Exxon Mobil Energy USA 316 371 (15%)
13 Nestlé Food / Beverages Switzerland 306 230 +33%
14 Walmart Retail USA 303 221 +37%
15 ICBC Financial Services China 285 224 +27%
16 Procter & Gamble Home Goods USA 273 220 +24%
17 Mastercard Financial Services USA 271 106 +156%
18 Bank of America Financial Services USA 262 149 +76%
19 Royal Dutch Shell Energy Netherlands 259 198 +31%
20 Samsung Technology South Korea 249 166 +50%
21 Disney Media USA 248 160 +55%
22 Cisco Technology USA 239 146 +64%
23 Pfizer Pharmaceuticals USA 238 212 +12%
24 AT&T Telecom USA 237 242 (2%)
25 Verizon Telecom USA 237 207 +15%
26 UnitedHealth Healthcare USA 235 131 +79%
27 Roche Healthcare Switzerland 233 224 +4%
28 Chevron Energy USA 231 191 +21%
29 Coca-Cola Food / Beverages USA 220 196 +12%
30 Home Depot Retail USA 217 161 +35%
Total $11,264 $7,385
14
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet Market Capitalization Leader Revenue Growth =
Slowing +11% vs. +13% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4)
0%
15%
30%
$0
$200B
$400B
Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
Global Internet Leaders – Revenue vs. Y/Y Growth
Source: CapitaIIQ. Revenue from Microsoft / Amazon / Apple / Alphabet / Facebook / Tencent / Alibaba / Netflix / Adobe / PayPal / Salesforce.com / Booking.com /
Recruit Holdings / ServiceNow / Workday / JD.com / Baidu / Activision Blizzard / Shopify / NetEase / eBay / Atlassian / MercadoLibre / Electronic Arts / Twitter / Square.
Note: *Uber, Meituan Dianping, Xiaomi and Spotify which had recent IPOs that did not provide detailed financials from Q1:15-Q4:16 that are necessary
to illustrate the Y/Y growth rate & are therefore excluded. Due to their revenue scale relative to the cumulative group, they have minimal impact on overall growth rate.
Revenue
(Blue
Bar)
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
15
Internet Trends
2019
Global Market Capitalization Leader Revenue Growth =
Slowing +2% vs. +7% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4)
-16%
0%
16%
$0
$600B
$1,200B
Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
Global Leaders – Revenue vs. Y/Y Growth
Source: CapitaIIQ. Revenue from Microsoft / Amazon / Apple / Alphabet / Berkshire Hathaway / Facebook / Tencent / Alibaba / Visa / Johnson & Johnson
/ JPMorgan / Exxon Mobil / Walmart / ICBC / Procter & Gamble / Bank of America / Samsung / Disney / Cisco / Pfizer / AT&T / Verizon / UnitedHealth /
MasterCard / Chevron / Coca-Cola / Home Depot. Nestle & Royal Dutch Shell quarterly revenue excluded due to bi-annual earnings releases.
Revenue
(Blue
Bar)
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
0%
16
Internet Trends
2019
E-COMMERCE + ONLINE ADVERTISING =
SOLID…
BUT SLOWING GROWTH
17
Internet Trends
2019
E-Commerce
18
Internet Trends
2019
E-Commerce Growth =
Solid +12.4% vs. +12.1% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4)
E-Commerce Sales vs. Y/Y Growth, USA
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database. Note: Historic data (Pre-2016) adjusted / back-casted in 2017 by
USA Census Bureau to better align with Annual Retail Trade + Monthly Retail Trade Survey data. Seasonally adjusted.
0%
10%
20%
$0
$70B
$140B
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
E-Commerce
Sales
(Blue
Bar)
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
2010 2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011 2018 2019
19
Internet Trends
2019
-10%
0%
10%
$0
$400B
$800B
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Physical Retail Growth =
Solid +2.0% vs. +1.6% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4)
Physical Retail Sales vs. Y/Y Growth, USA
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database. Note: Physical Retail includes
all retail sales excluding food services, motor vehicles / auto parts & fuel.
0%
Physical
Retail
Sales,
USA
(Blue
Bar)
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000 2019
20
Internet Trends
2019
E-Commerce Share =
Gains Continue @ 15% of Retail vs. 14% Y/Y
E-Commerce as % of Retail Sales, USA
0%
8%
16%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
E-Commerce
Share
Source: USA Census Bureau, St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database. Note: 15% = Annualized share. Penetration calculated by dividing
E-Commerce sales by “Core” Retail Sales (excluding food services, motor vehicles / auto parts, gas stations & fuel). All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Per US Census Bureau, E-Commerce is ~10% of total retails sales in Q1:19, including out-of-scope channels such as gas stations, fuel dealers, etc.
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000 2019
21
Internet Trends
2019
Online Advertising
22
Internet Trends
2019
8%
16%
43%
25%
8%
27%
11%
43%
0%
25%
50%
Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile
%
of
Time
Spent
in
Media
/
Advertising
Spending,
2010,
USA
0.5%
Media Time vs. Advertising Spending =
Mobile @ Equilibrium (2018)…Desktop (2015)
Source: Internet & Mobile advertising spend based on IAB & PwC data for full year 2018 & 2010.
Print advertising spend based on Magna Global estimates for full year 2018 & 2010. Print includes newspaper & magazine.
Time spent share data based on eMarketer (10/18). Excludes out-of-home, video game & cinema advertising.
% Time Spent in Media vs. % Advertising Spending
2010
3%
12%
34%
18%
33%
7%
8%
34%
0%
25%
50%
Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile
Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile
2018
19%
18%
33%
%
of
Time
Spent
in
Media
/
Advertising
Spending,
2018,
USA
Ad Spend
Time Spent
23
Internet Trends
2019
Internet Ad Spending (Annual)=
Accelerated +22% vs. +21% Y/Y
Source: IAB / PWC Internet 2018 Advertising Report (5/19).
Internet Advertising Spend
0%
15%
30%
0
$60B
$120B
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
Internet
Advertising
Spend,
USA
(Bars)
Desktop Advertising Mobile Advertising Y/Y Growth
24
Internet Trends
2019
Internet Ad Revenue (Quarterly – Leading USA Platforms) =
Decelerating +20% vs. +29% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4)
Leading USA-Based Online Ad Platform Revenue, Global
Source: Company public releases & Morgan Stanley estimates. Note: Includes Google / Facebook / Twitter / Amazon / Snapchat / Pinterest.
0%
20%
40%
$0
$30B
$60B
Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
Revenue
(Blue
Bar)
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
25
Internet Trends
2019
Internet Ad Platforms =
Google + Facebook Lead But Others Gaining Share
Select USA-Based Advertising Platform Revenue, Global
Source: Company public releases & Morgan Stanley estimates.
$0
$20B
$40B
Google
+1.4x
Facebook
+1.9x
Amazon / Twitter /
Snap / Pinterest
+2.6x
26
Internet Trends
2019
Internet Ad Buying = Programmatic Gains vs. Direct Continue…
Negatively Impacting Pricing
10%
62%
0%
40%
80%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Programmatic Buying – % Digital Display Advertising, Global
Source: Publicis / Zenith 2018 Programmatic Marketing Forecast. Note: Programmatic refers to ads bought both via real-time bidding
& non real-time algorithmically-driven ad purchases. Does not include non-display advertising (e.g., Search)
%
Display
Advertising
Spend
Programmatic,
Global
27
Internet Trends
2019
Ad Share Gain Drivers =
Better Targeting + New Creative + Commerce + High-Relevance
Facebook
Targeting
Audience Customization
YouTube
Machine Learning
Automatically Time-Edited Clips
Twitter
High-Relevance
Promoted Tweets
Pinterest
Commerce
Shoppable Catalogs
Source: Facebook / Google / Pinterest / Twitter
28
Internet Trends
2019
Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) =
Rising in Highly Competitive / Capitalized Sectors
$0
$30
$60
1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19
Cost Per User Activation – Mobile Finance Apps, Global per Liftoff
Source: Liftoff’s 2019 / 2018 Mobile Finance App Report. Note: Report draws from internal Liftoff Data from 2/1/17 to 3/31/19, spanning 19B+ ad impressions
across 5MM+ App installs, 270MM+ clicks & 3MM activations / registrations. Data focused on North America, Europe, Middle East, Africa & Asia Pacific.
Note: Activation = Adding & depositing funds to an account, activating a spending card, opening an equities position or starting a paid subscription.
Average
Cost
per
User
Activation,
Global
29
Internet Trends
2019
Reality =
CAC Can’t Exceed LTV for Very Long
CAC = Customer Acquisition Cost. LTV = Lifetime Value.
30
Internet Trends
2019
Effective + Efficient Marketing =
One’s Own Product +
Happy Customers + Recommendations
31
Internet Trends
2019
Effective + Efficient Marketing =
Can Be Free Trial / Tier
26%
29%
38%
42%
0% 25% 50%
Good User Experience
Access to Exclusive Content
Content Library
Free Trial
Free Trial / Tier 42%
Online Streaming – Reasons For Trying New Service
Source: 2BrightCove / YouGov survey of 10,502 adults in USA, UK, France, Australia, Germany, Canada & UAE, 9/18.
32
Internet Trends
2019
Happy Customers…
Spotify = Free User Conversion to Paid Subscribers…
Source: Spotify releases & Morgan Stanley estimates of LTV & SAC. Barry McCarthy @ Spotify Investor Day (3/18). Note: Morgan Stanley estimates LTV by
calculating the value of a subscriber (including advertising revenue they generate before they upgrade to a paid user) accounting for gross margin & churn.
Subscriber acquisition cost calculated by dividing sales & marketing spend in a relevant period by the number of new subscribers in the same period.
…Rising LTV / Subscriber Acquisition Cost Ratio
Free Ad-Supported Product…
1.5x
3.0x
0x
2x
4x
2015 2016 2017 2018
Lifetime
Value
of
Premium
Subscribers
(Adjusted
for
Advertising
Revenue
from
Free
Users)
/
Subscriber
Acquisition
Cost
Our freemium model accounts for
~60% of our gross added premium subscribers...
the ad-supported service is a subsidy program
that offsets costs of new subscriber acquisition.
Developing a better user experience
produces by far the most viral effect &
impact when investing in growth.
Engagement drives conversion from
free consumption to paid subscription.
Barry McCarthy – CFO, Spotify, 3/18
Morgan Stanley LTV:CAC Estimate
33
Internet Trends
2019
…Happy Customers…
Zoom = Free User Conversion to Paid Subscribers
…High LTV / CAC Ratio*
Free to Join, When Paid User Hosts…
3.7x 3.7x
0x
3x
6x
FQ1:19 FQ2:19 FQ3:19 FQ4:19 FQ1:20
Lifetime
Value
to
Customer
Acquisition
Cost
Ratio
FY = January
..we really want to get customers to test our product…
It’s really hard to get customers to
try Zoom without a freemium product...
We make our freemium product work so well…
If they like our product, very soon they are
going to pay for the subscription.
The most important thing is to make sure the existing
customer [is] happy rather than chasing after new prospects.
Our NPS is in the 67-69 range vs. our peers in the 20’s…
We do not want to spend money on [the]
marketing side to generate leads.
Eric Yuan – Founder / CEO, Zoom, 8/17
Source: Interview with SaaStr (8/17). Zoom S-1. Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimates of LTV & CAC. Note: *Goldman Sachs Investment Research calculated LTV as
the value of $1 of Annual Recurring Revenue, discounted for GAAP gross margin, Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimated Gross Churn & an 11% assumed discount rate.
CAC is calculated as the amount of Sales & Marketing expense in a relevant period, divided by the gross new Annual Recurring Revenue added in the same period.
Goldman Sachs Investment Research LTV:CAC Estimate
34
Internet Trends
2019
Effective + Efficient Marketing =
Can Be Recommendations
10%
11%
12%
22%
22%
23%
0% 15% 30%
Flexibility to Cancel
Like Subscription Model
Like the Product
Financial Incentive
Try Something New
Reccomended by Someone
Recommended by Someone 23%
E-Commerce – Reasons for Trying New Subscription Box
Source: McKinsey Research on E-Commerce Consumers (2/18). Note: Based on online survey from November 8 to 12, 2017, with responses
from more than 5,093 participants in the United States. Of those, 4,057 (80 percent) were online shoppers, defined as people who had spent at
least $25 online in the past month. Of those, 607 (15 percent) had subscribed to at least one service over the past 12 months.
35
Internet Trends
2019
Happy Customers…
Stitch Fix = Recommendations Drive Growth
…Stitch Fix Active Clients
Data-Driven / Personalized Recommendations…
The better way to [sell clothing] is through
personalization – get to know product, get to know
people & generate really good recommendations…
What's really special about Stitch Fix is that
100% of what we sell is based on recommendations.
We have over 4,000 stylists…what makes them
successful is listening, empathy & delivering
what the client wants & doing that without
judgment…Our business is about helping
people feel their best, not necessarily
selling the big high-end fashion trends.
Katrina Lake – Founder / CEO, Stitch Fix, 6/18
Source: Katrina Lake interview @ JPMorgan Technology, Media & Communications Conference (6/18). Stitch Fix SEC Filings.
Note: Active Client refers to a client who has checked out at least 1 recommended ‘Fix’ in the past 12 months.
0
1.5MM
3.0MM
1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19
Stitch
Fix
Active
Clients
36
Internet Trends
2019
Advertising TBDs
TBD = To Be Determined
37
Internet Trends
2019
TBD = Impact on Ad Targeting…
Privacy Changes
…privacy [concerns] are a headwind for [Facebook] in 2019.
It's one of the factors that's contributing to our expected
deceleration of revenue growth throughout the year.
You've got regulatory – which was GDPR in 2018…
the regulatory arc will be longer-term in playing out…
Platforms like iOS are making bigger
pushes in privacy & that has the potential impact…
then changes that we're making ourselves…
we've elected to rollout GDPR-type controls globally…
later this year, we'll be launching Clear History,
which will also affect our ability to do third-party targeting.
David Wehner – CFO, Facebook, 2/19
Source: David Wehner speaking at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media, Telecom Conference, 2/26/2019.
TBD = To be Determined
38
Internet Trends
2019
TBD = Impact on Ad Targeting…
Digital TV-Based Ads (Aided by In-Hand Mobiles)
…Creating Opportunities for Better Ad Experiences
Multi-Platform Data Improves Relevancy…
Xandr Revenue vs. Growth Y/Y
Source: AT&T / Xandr Releases. Nielsen Q2:18 Total Audience Report (12/18). Note: Survey based on Nielsen National USA
Panel data. Note: 2018 USA Mid-term elections drove above-average television advertising spend on Xandr platform.
0%
30%
60%
$0
$300MM
$600MM
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019
Xandr
Revenue
(Blue
Bars)
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
Nielsen Audience Report (USA)
88% = Use a Second Digital Device
While Watching TV
71% = Look Up Content Related To
Content They Are Watching
41% = Message Friends / Family About
Content They Are Watching
39
Internet Trends
2019
INTERNET USAGE =
SOLID GROWTH…
DRIVEN BY INVESTMENT + INNOVATION
40
Internet Trends
2019
Usage
41
Internet Trends
2019
Digital Media Usage =
Accelerating +7% vs. +5% Y/Y
Source: eMarketer 9/14 (2008-2010), eMarketer 4/15 (2011-2013), eMarketer 4/17 (2014-2015), eMarketer 10/18 (2016-2018).
Note: Other connected devices include OTT & game consoles. Mobile includes smartphone & tablet. Usage includes both home &
work for consumers 18+. Non deduped defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking.
Daily Hours Spent with Digital Media per Adult User, USA
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.8
1.6
2.3 2.6
2.8 3.1
3.3
3.6
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.7
4.3
4.9
5.1
5.4
5.6
5.9
6.3
0
4
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Hours
Spent
per
Day,
USA
Other Connected Devices Desktop / Laptop Mobile
42
Internet Trends
2019
Usage Drivers
43
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet / Technology Businesses =
Investment Remains Robust
44
Internet Trends
2019
Global USA-Listed Technology IPO Issuance &
Global Technology Venture Capital Financing
Investment (Public + Private) Into Technology Companies =
High for Two Decades
Technology
IPO
&
Private
Financing,
Global
Source: Morgan Stanley Equity Capital Markets, *2019YTD figure as of 6/7/19, Thomson ONE. All global USA-listed technology IPOs
over $30MM, data per Dealogic, Bloomberg, & CapitalIQ. 2012: Facebook ($16B IPO) = 75% of 2012 IPO $ value. 2014: Alibaba ($25B
IPO) = 69% of 2014 IPO $ value. 2017: Snap ($4B IPO) = 34% of 2017 $ value. 2019: Uber ($8B IPO) = 56% of 2019YTD $ value.
NASDAQ
Composite
0
4,500
9,000
$0
$100B
$200B
1990 1996 2002 2008 2014**
Technology Private Financing Technology IPO NASDAQ
2019YTD*
45
Internet Trends
2019
Internet / Technology Businesses =
USA-Based
Innovation Remains Robust…
46
Internet Trends
2019
Device Time =
Mobile > TV
Television & Mobile Daily Time Spent (Non-Deduped), USA
Source: eMarketer (10/18). Usage includes both home & work for consumers 18+.
Non-deduped defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking. Updated from original 4/18 release in 10/18 by eMarketer
20
226
266
216
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
0
150
300
Mobile Television
Average
Daily
Time
Spent
(Minutes)
47
Internet Trends
2019
Online Platform Time =
YouTube + Instagram Gaining Most
31% 30%
14%
15%
13%
19%
3% 4%
4%
5%
1% 2%
9%
11%
25%
23%
23%
25%
22%
27%
0%
32%
Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18
YouTube
Facebook
Instagram
Facebook
Messenger
Twitter
WhatsApp
WeChat
Snapchat
Pinterest
Twitch
% Internet Users Using Select Platforms > 1x per Day, Global*
Source: Global Web Index Survey of 50K+ Global Internet users aged 16-64 (3/2017-12/2018). Note: WeChat is displayed as "Weixin" in China. *Countries surveyed include major Internet
populations – Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UK,
USA, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam. Toutiao estimate = ~4% of Internet users using Douyin in 2018….Not included owing to lack of trend data & regulatory action in period.
48
Internet Trends
2019
Video Time =
Digital +2x in Five Years @ 28% of Total (vs. TV)
7%
11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 25% 28%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
200
400
Digital Video Television
Video Watching Daily Minutes – Digital vs. TV, USA
Source: eMarketer (10/18). Usage includes both home & work for consumers 18+. Non de-duplicated defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking.
Average
Daily
Time
Spent
(Minutes),
USA
4%
4%
49
Internet Trends
2019
Video Time (Short-Form – Facebook Platform) =
1.5B DAUs + ~2x in One Year
Daily
Active
Users,
Global
Source: Facebook (8/18,12/18). Daily Active Users (DAU) = Users that interact with a Story daily.
Vertical segments of chart = owing to first reported DAU metric for each product. *Not de-duped across platforms.
Daily Active Users, Global*
0
0.8B
1.6B
4/17 10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19
Instagram Stories
Facebook / Messenger Stories
WhatsApp Status
Facebook Stories
50
Internet Trends
2019
Voice =
70MM Podcast Listener MAUs + ~2x in Four Years…
Podcast Listener MAUs, USA
22MM
70MM
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0
40MM
80MM
Millions
Source: The Infinite Dial 2019 by Edison Research & Triton (2/19). National survey of 1,500 people ages 12+. The estimated share of
USA respondents is the n multiplied by USA population over the age 13, per USA Census Bureau. Apple.
Podcasts – Most Downloaded
Apple Podcasts, 2018, USA
1) The Daily The New York Times
2) The Joe Rogan Experience Joe Rogan
3) Stuff You Should Know iHeartMedia
4) Fresh Air National Public Radio
5) The Dave Ramsey Show Dave Ramsey
6) My Favorite Murder Exactly Right
7) TED Talks Daily TED
8) Up First National Public Radio
9) The Ben Shapiro Show The Daily Wire
10) Pod Save America Crooked Media
Monthly
Podcast
Listeners,
USA
51
Internet Trends
2019
…Voice =
47MM Amazon Echo Base + ~2x in One Year
Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners LLC (Echo install base, 2/18), Various
media outlets including Geekwire, TechCrunch, & Wired (Echo skills, 4/19)
Amazon Echo Installed Base
0
30MM
60MM
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Installed
Base,
USA
0
50K
100K
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number
of
Skills
Amazon Echo Skills
2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
52
Internet Trends
2019
Wearables =
52MM Users + ~2x in Four Years
Wearable Users, USA
Source: eMarketer (11/18). Users = Monthly Active adults 18+ years old who wear accessories or clothing embedded
with electronics, software, or sensors that have the ability to connect to the Internet (via built-in connectivity or tethering),
which in turn collects & exchanges data with a manufacturer, operator, or other connected devices.
25MM
52MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
30MM
60MM
Wearable
Users,
USA
53
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand =
56MM Consumers + ~2x in Two Years
On-Demand Consumers, USA
Source: National Technology Readiness Survey (4/18). Note: authored by Rockbridge Associates, Inc. & A. Parasuraman, & is co-
sponsored by the Center for Excellence in Service, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. The study is conducted
online among a representative sample of consumers in a national panel, & represents the views of U.S. adults ages 18 & older. The
sample size was 1,032 in 2016 & 1,004 in 2017. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. 2018 figures are estimates.
On-Demand Products / Services –
Consumer Spend, 2017, USA
$0 $15B $30B
Other
Health & Beauty
Food Delivery
Housing
Transportation
Online Marketplaces
Consumer Spend, 2017, USA
25MM
56MM
0
30MM
60MM
2016 2017 2018
On-Demand
Consumers,
USA
54
Internet Trends
2019
Local =
236K Nextdoor Active Neighborhoods + ~2x in Two Years
0
125K
250K
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Active
Neighborhoods,
Global
Active Neighborhoods, Global
Local Business Recommendations =
29MM, +71% Y/Y
Source: Nextdoor (5/19). 29MM = Cumulative local business recommendations on the platform, up 71% Y/Y vs. 17MM in 5/18.
55
Internet Trends
2019
Underserved Population = Square Seller Base Growing…
28% Points Faster in Lowest vs. Highest Income MSAs, USA*
= Loans (2014-Q1:19)
= Women-Owned Businesses
= Minority-Owned Businesses
= Average Loan Size 0%
15%
30%
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Square (5/19). * Per Federal Reserve’s “Survey of Terms of Business Lending”, Aug 2017 Note: MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Active sellers are
defined as those who have accepted five or more payments within the last 12 months. Square Capital Loans only available to Active Square Sellers. Data sourced
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s 2017 report on “Annual Personal Income by Metropolitan Statistical Areas”. From 2014-2018, the adoption growth rate of
the bottom 25 MSAs was on average 1.22x that of the top, demonstrating the utility & relevance of payment technology in less traditional areas.
Growth in Number of Active Square Sellers
Difference Between 25 Lowest Income &
25 Highest Income USA MSAs*
Square Capital Data
%
Point
Difference
in
Growth
Rate
(~18x Smaller Than Average Small Business Administration Loans)*
$4.5B
58%
35%
$6K
56
Internet Trends
2019
…Internet / Technology Businesses =
Non-USA-Based
Innovation Remains Robust…
Data-Driven / Direct
Fulfillment
Growing Rapidly…
57
Internet Trends
2019
Source: Pinduoduo SEC filings (2018), Q4:18 Earnings Call (3/19) & Morgan Stanley.
Note: An active buyer is a buyer who has completed at least one transaction in the past 12 months.
Group Discovery / Buying
We call it consumer-to-manufacturer, where we
understand the users' needs first & enable upstream
providers, be it farmers, manufacturers, etc. to
produce appropriate products for our users.
This is different from how the current system works,
where upstream producers design, manufacture &
sell without necessarily being in tune with the
changing needs of their targeted users.
As we add more users to the network & also gain more data
points through their increasing interaction with our platform,
we can further refine our engine to deliver an even better user
experience that keeps up with our users' evolving preferences.
Pinduoduo – Q4:18 Earnings Call, 3/19
Pinduoduo
China (Pinduoduo) = Connecting Consumer Preferences & Manufacturers…
443MM Buyers + ~2x in Five Quarters
Active Buyers, China
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
0
250MM
500MM
Pinduoduo
Active
Buyers,
China
2017 2018 2019
58
Internet Trends
2019
Active Merchants, China
Source: Meituan Dianping Releases (2018-2019) Note: An active merchant is a merchant who has completed at least one transaction, purchased online marketing services,
processed a payment through Meituan Dianping’s service, or generated an order through Meituan Dianping’s ERP system.
Fulfillment
2015 2016 2017 2018
0
3MM
6MM
Thousands
Meituan
Dianping
Active
Merchants
Meituan Dianping
China (Meituan Dianping) = Connecting Consumers & Local Businesses…
~6MM Merchants + ~2x in Two Years
Traditionally, local merchants in China – mostly micro & small
businesses – have very few marketing channels available to
them. We have become the go-to platform for
local search & consumer service discovery.
Based on our data analytics, we leveraged user search
queries to connect them with high-quality local merchants
who match their preference. We are able to help merchants
reach a vast quantity of potential consumers with
a low upfront cost & high conversion rates.
Xing Wang – Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, Meituan Dianping, 3/19
59
Internet Trends
2019
Source: Rappi (6/19).
5/15 5/16 5/17 5/18 5/19
0
5MM
10MM
Millions
Monthly Orders, Latin America
Digital Delivery Platform
Rappi
Latin America (Rappi) = Digitizing Delivery…
8MM Orders + ~2x in Four Months
Monthly
Rappi
Orders,
Latin
America
Latin America has a great delivery culture.
Cities are chaotic, delivery was super manual &
not all stores offered it — there was plenty
of inefficiency & high costs.
We thought: what if we digitized this ecosystem
& started to deliver anything in under
30 minutes for less than a dollar?
Simon Borrero, Sebastian Meija, Felipe Villanmarin, Andres Bilbao, Guillermo Plaza –
Co-Founders, 6/19
60
Internet Trends
2019
Indonesia (Tokopedia) = Improving Product Delivery Across 17K Islands…
~6MM Merchants + ~2x in One Year
0
3MM
6MM
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0%
35%
70%
Merchants vs. Same / Next Day Deliveries, Indonesia
Source: Nikkei Asian Review (2/19). Tokopedia (4/19). *2019YTD = As of 4/19. Note: A registered
merchant defined as an enterprise with listing on Tokopedia. 2
Same-Day Delivery
Registered
Merchants,
Indonesia
(Blue
Bar)
Tokopedia
Same
/
Next
Day
Deliveries
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
2019YTD*
When we look at sales data...
people from [one island] sometimes don’t want to
buy products from sellers on [other islands].
We thought – what if we can [give] every business that
joins us…a warehouse everywhere in Indonesia –
every product bought on Tokopedia
[could] be delivered same-day.
William Tanuwijaya – Co-Founder & CEO, Tokopedia, 2/19
61
Internet Trends
2019
Gross Merchandise Value, Southeast Asia
Source: Sea Limited Q1:19 Earnings (2/19). Goldman Sachs Investment Research . Sea Limited operates commerce in Malaysia, Singapore, The Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia & Vietnam.
Mobile / Social Shopping
Shopee's ability to grow rapidly over a short period
of time is a testament to its focus on building a
mobile-centric, socially engaging marketplace
with emphasis on high margin products from a
highly diverse seller base.
…Shopee has combined its marketplace offering
with integrated payments, logistics infrastructure &
a comprehensive set of services.
Forrest Li – CEO, SEA Limited, 2/19
Sea Limited / Shopee
Southeast Asia (Shopee) = Mobile-First Social Commerce…
$10B in Gross Merchandise Value + ~2x in One Year
$0
$6B
$12B
2016 2017 2018
Gross
E-Commerce
Merchandise
Value
62
Internet Trends
2019
Wireless Subscribers + Offline Stores, India
0
6K
12K
FY17 FY18 FY19
0
250MM
500MM
Thousands
Source: Reliance Annual Report & Shareholder Meeting (7/18)
Connectivity + Retail
Jio
Wireless
Internet
Subscribers
(Blue
Bar)
Physical
Retail
Locations
(Red
Line)
FY = March
Reliance Jio
India (Reliance Jio) = Expanding Offline Access to E-Commerce…
307MM Subscribers + ~2x in One Year…
We are creating a hybrid, online-to-offline commerce platform by
integrating Reliance Retail's physical marketplace
with Jio's digital infrastructure & services.
This platform will bring together 350MM customer footfalls at
Reliance Retail stores, 307MM Jio connectivity customers &
30MM small merchants all over India who provide the
last-mile physical market connectivity.
Mukesh Ambani – Chairman, Reliance, 7/18
63
Internet Trends
2019
…India (Reliance Jio) = Broad Base of Jio Services for Consumers…
Data Usage + ~2x in One Year
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
0
9EB
18EB
Thousands
Data Usage, India
Annual
Data
Usage
of
Jio
Network
(Exabytes)
Source: Jio Releases & Morgan Stanley. Note: 1 petabyte = 1MM gigabytes. 1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes.
Full Suite Apps
Music…Movies…Television…News…
Chat…Finance…Fashion...Security…
Storage…Data Transfer
FY = March
Reliance Jio
64
Internet Trends
2019
…Internet / Technology Businesses =
Non-USA-Based
Innovation Remains Robust…
Data-Driven / Direct
Financial Services
Growing Rapidly
65
Internet Trends
2019
China (Alipay) = Broad Online / Offline Financial Services...
1B Users + ~2x in Two Years
2/16 2/17 2/18 2/19
0
600MM
1,200MM
Annual Active Users, Global
Alipay
Payment
Annual
Active
Users
Alipay
Source: Alibaba Releases. Alibaba Earnings Call transcript (2/18)
Payments / Financial Services
Alibaba has the most comprehensive ecosystem of
commerce platforms, logistics & payment to support the
digital transformation of the retail sector.
Ant Financial / Alipay is not only China's #1 mobile payments
platform, but it is also a provider of financial services such as
loans, wealth management & insurance products to hundreds of
millions of consumers & millions of small businesses on the
Alibaba platform.
Joe Tsai – Executive Vice Chairman, Alibaba, 2/18
66
Internet Trends
2019
Users, South Korea
Source: Toss. Korea JoongAng Daily Interview with SG Lee (3/19)
Payments / Financial Services
A persistent problem in Korea has been the lack
of mid-level interest-rate loans.
The reason for this is because there hasn’t been
adequate credit evaluation on filers with mid-level
credit scores or small business owners.
Data from the Toss mobile payment platform & its
partners will help make better credit judgments on
those filers when they are seeking loans.
SG Lee – Co-Founder & CEO, Toss, 3/19
Toss
0
6MM
12MM
2/17 8/17 2/18 8/18 2/19
Toss
Users,
South
Korea
South Korea (Toss) = Digital Payments / Financial Services…
~12MM Users + ~2x in One Year
67
Internet Trends
2019
Europe (Revolut) = Personalized Banking…
4MM Users + ~2x in Ten Months
10/15 4/16 10/16 4/17 10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19
0
2.5MM
5.0MM
Thousands
Users, Global
Source: Revolut Releases (2015-2019). Mobile Industry Eye Interview (7/18)
Money Transfer / Banking
Revolut
Revolut
Users,
Global
Personalization with the help of data / technology
will allow people to have all their [financial]
needs covered & what’s more – they will be
able to choose all those setting themselves.
We’re also heavily investing in data science &
engineering to automate, accelerate &
increase the quality of these decisions.
Nikolay Storonsky – Co-Founder & CEO, Revolut, 11/18
68
Internet Trends
2019
Brazil (Nubank) = Banking / Consumer Credit…
~9MM Unique Customers + ~2x in One Year
Total Unique Customers, Brazil
Banking / Credit
Nubank
0
5MM
10MM
4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19
Source: Nubank (5/19)
Nubank is the largest purely digital bank offering
financial services for Brazil, including no fee credit
cards, savings accounts (NuConta), P2P money
transfer, bill payment, debit cards, salary account
portability & a rewards program with real-time benefits.
Nubank also offers highly personalized loans at low
prices owing to Nubank’s data-driven direct
customer relationship.
Nubank – 5/19
Nubank
Unique
Customers,
Brazil
69
Internet Trends
2019
Annual Transactions, Latin America
Source: MercadoLibre (5/19), Goldman Sachs Investment Research.
Latin America (MercadoLibre) = E-Commerce-Driven Digital Payments…
389MM Transactions + ~2x in Two Years
0
200MM
400MM
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
MercadoPago
Transactions,
Latin
America
Marketplace / MercadoPago Payments
MercadoLibre
We continue to grow strongly & see tremendous potential
in MercadoPago. Off-marketplace transactions
already surpassed marketplace transactions.
This trend is compounded by our strong offline initiatives:
building out our mobile POS network &
MercadoPago’s wallet-enabled payments services.
Beyond payments, we are also seeing great adoption
of our Asset Management & Credits products.
These products facilitate access to financial
services to millions of Latin Americans
who are either unbanked or underbanked.
Pedro Arnt – CFO, MercadoLibre, 5/19
70
Internet Trends
2019
GrabPay Transaction Value, Southeast Asia
GrabPay
Only 27% of adults in Southeast Asia
have bank accounts.
Not having a banking history means that a consumer is
invisible to traditional financial institutions - no access to
capital to grow businesses or pay for houses.
By launching GrabPay on top of Grab’s ride-sharing
platform, Grab’s millions of users have access to
financial services that they could not access via
traditional banks & lenders.
Reuben Lai – Senior Managing Director, Grab Financial Group, 5/19
Grab
1.0x
2.5x
4.0x
Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
GrabPay
Transaction
Value
Indexed
to
Q1:18,
Southeast
Asia
Source: Grab Financial Group (3/18-5/19).
Southeast Asia (Grab) = Ride Share-Driven Digital Payments…
Transaction Value + ~4x in One Year
71
Internet Trends
2019
Usage =
Images…
Increasingly Relevant Way to Communicate
72
Internet Trends
2019
Images =
Oldest Form of Transportable Communication
40K Years Ago =
Oldest Known Image…
Painting, Indonesia
5K Years Ago =
Oldest Known Text…
Cuneiform, Mesopotamia
131 Years Ago =
Oldest Known Moving Image…
Video, United Kingdom
Source: Maxime Aubert, Griffith University, Wikimedia, National Science Museum, London.
73
Internet Trends
2019
For Centuries…
People Have Learned to
Write & Share Words…
Offline & One-to-One / Some…
74
Internet Trends
2019
Communication via Text (+ Numbers) =
Foundational
Source: Wikimedia Commons, Google For Education, Boston City Archives
Note: 1800s chosen as date of ’Modern Public Schools’ based on Byrk et al.’s ‘Catholic Schools in the Common Good.’ Though public funds had been previously used to fund primary
education, reforms in USA cities during the 1800s were the first to establish open, secular education, similar to contemporary ‘public schools’
Makes Ideas
Transportable…
Martin Luther’s
95 Theses
(1500s)
…Simplifies
Concepts…
Robert Recorde’s
invention of ‘=’
(1500s)
…Enables
Learning
Modern ‘Public’
Primary Schools
(1800s – Present)
75
Internet Trends
2019
…For Two Decades…
People Ramping
Image + Video Creation / Sharing…
Online & Often One-to-Many
76
Internet Trends
2019
Image Creation =
Foundations Continue to Ramp
4S
5
5S 6
6S
7
X
XS
Source: Smartphone Installed Base Per Morgan Stanley (3/19). iPhone Power / Storage Per. GeekBench Browser, Apple. Note: Geekbench is a multi-platform benchmarking tool intended
to compare the power of computer processors across generation, platform & workload. Maximum storage refers to largest storage capacity offered, as advertised. WiFi Data = WiGLE.net
as of 5/29/18. Note: WiGLE.net is a submission-based catalog of wireless networks that has collected >6B data points since launch in 2001. Submissions are not paired with actual people,
rather name / password identities which people use to associate their data. Ericsson Q4:18 Mobility Report.
0
2B
4B
2010 2014 2018
Smartphone
Install
Base,
Global
Active Smartphones
0
300GB
600GB
0
3,000
6,000
2010 2014 2018
Flagship iPhone Power / Storage
GeekBench
Processing
Power
Benchmark
Maximum
Storage
0
300MM
600MM
2000 2009 2018
WiFi
Networks,
Global
WiFi Networks
0
15EB
30EB
2014 2016 2018
Cellular Data Traffic
Monthly
Uplink
+
Downlink
Traffic,
Global,
Per
Ericsson
Smartphone / Camera Base… …Smartphone Power…
…WiFi Reach
…Cellular Data Use…
Processing Power Storage
77
Internet Trends
2019
Image Sharing =
Foundations Continue to Ramp
Source: Photo Creation Per InfoTrends Digital Imaging Reporter’s State of the Industry 2018. Instagram releases.
Image Creation Image Sharing
0
0.7T
1.4T
2013 2015 2017
Photos
Taken,
Global
Instagram Monthly Active Users, Global
0
0.5B
1.0B
2010 2014 2018
Annual New Photos Taken, Global
MAUs,
Global
78
Internet Trends
2019
Image Creation + Sharing =
Engagement Continues to Ramp…
Source: Twitter. Note: Other media includes GIFs, Audio & other non image / video media types
Twitter (2006) = Text-Only
Twitter (2019) = Text + Images + Video
>50% of Tweet Impressions =
Images / Video / Other Media
79
Internet Trends
2019
…Image Creation + Sharing =
Platform Functionality + Usage Continues to Ramp…
Commerce
2019
Source: Instagram Releases (2011 / 2015 / 2016 / 2019)
Instagram Image Sharing Enhancement Evolution
Image Editing /
Sharing
2011
Data-Driven
Discovery
2015
Image + Video
Stories
2016
80
Internet Trends
2019
…Image Creation + Sharing =
Platform Functionality + Usage Continues to Ramp
Source: Pinterest Releases (2011 / 2012 / 2015 / 2019)
Pinterest Image Sharing Enhancement Evolution
Image-Driven
Discovery /
Commerce
2019
Image
Organization /
Sharing
2011
Video
Organization /
Sharing
2012
Image-
Powered
Search
2015
81
Internet Trends
2019
Image-Based Communication =
Enabled by Computer Vision + Artificial Intelligence
Google Lens + AR Image Analysis / Communication Evolution
Real-Time
Visual Text
Translation
2019
Visual Text
Identification /
Processing
2017
Image
Identification /
Context
2017
Contextual
Augmented
Reality
2018
Source: Google (2017-2019)
82
Internet Trends
2019
People =
Increasingly Telling Stories via
Edited Images / Videos
83
Internet Trends
2019
Edited Images =
Growing Rapidly
0
20B
40B
12/17 3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 3/19
Snap Lens Studio
User Generated / Custom Augmented Reality
Views
of
User
Generated
Lenses
Snap Community Lens Views
Source: Snap Inc. Q4:17 Earnings Call (2/18), Snapchat Blog Post (7/18), Adweek (11/18), Engadget (2/19)
84
Internet Trends
2019
Image-Based Design Fluency + Story-Telling =
Increasingly Self-Taught + Collaborative…
Still Early Innings
85
Internet Trends
2019
Design Fluency + Story-Telling (Canva) =
Simple / Collaborative / Feedback-Driven Design
Choose Template
Customize Design
Collaborate in Teams
Publish Anywhere
Source: Canva (6/19)
86
Internet Trends
2019
People have always been visual – our brains are
wired for images. Writing was a hack, a detour.
Pictorial languages are how we all started to
communicate – we are coming full circle.
We are reverting to what is most natural.
Instagram has always been a
communication platform, not an image sharing tool.
Instagram challenges the notion that beauty
comes in a traditional, artsy form…
it’s not about beauty, it’s about the story you tell.
Instagram’s inherent feedback systems help users
continuously improve communication skills.
Kevin Systrom – Instagram Co-Founder, 5/19
87
Internet Trends
2019
Picture or 1,000 Words?
Source: Photo Credit = Beth A Keiser, AP
Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common &
recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes)
where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for
food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake,
sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of
an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching,
ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the
nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the
water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern
Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates,
fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—
rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring
around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near
the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for
food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the
mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle
Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time
near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or
surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and
graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown
breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called
ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for
less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a
neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are
the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes,
streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by
tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard
duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are
waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than
a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called
a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a
running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in
the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants,
invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and
tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a
white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a
gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and
forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close
88
Internet Trends
2019
Usage =
Interactive Gaming…
Increasingly Relevant Way to Communicate
89
Internet Trends
2019
Interactive Gaming Players =
Accelerating @ 2.4B +6% vs. +5% Y/Y
Interactive Game Players, Global
Source: Newzoo Global Games Market Reports (2016-2018).
Interactive Game Players = People who have played a game across console / PC / mobile platforms in the past year.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
1.5B
3.0B
Interactive
Game
Players,
Global
90
Internet Trends
2019
Interactive Gaming Innovation =
Rising…Across Platforms
0
50
100
9/17 7/18 5/19
~1 Major Update
per Week
...Frequent Major Updates To Fortnite
Named
/
Numbered
Updates
to
Fortnite
Source: Epic Games. (11/18). Note: Major update = named / numbered update to Fortnite.
Game Engine Innovation…
Unreal Engine 4.21 continues our relentless pursuit
of greater efficiency, performance & stability
for every project on any platform.
We made it easier to create faster…
We are always looking for ways to streamline everyday
tasks so developers can focus on creating meaningful,
exciting & engaging experiences...Iterate faster
thanks to optimizations, run automated tests to
find issues using the new Gauntlet automation framework,
& speed up your day-to-day workflows...
Jeff Wilson – Unreal Engine Release Notes, Epic Games, 11/18
91
Internet Trends
2019
Interactive Gaming =
Real-Time
Play + Talk / Text + Watch…
Social in Nearly All Ways
92
Internet Trends
2019
0
150MM
300MM
10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19
Epic Fortnite Cross-Platform Evolution vs. Registered Users
Source: Epic Games (9/17-3/19)
Registered
Users,
Global
1
September 2017
Fortnite Battle Royale
Launches on PC /
Mac / PS4 / Xbox One
With Limited Cross
Platform Support
2
March 2018
V3.4 Patch is
Released Allowing
Users to Send &
Receive Squad
Invites Cross-Platform
April 2018
Fortnite Launches to
Public in iOS App
Store, Allowing Cross-
Platform Mobile Play
3
October 2018
Fortnite for Android
Launches to Public
5
June 2018
Fortnite Launches on
Nintendo Switch…
Available on All Major
Current Generation
Consoles
4
1 2 3 5
4
Interactive Gaming (Play) =
Fortnite @ 250MM+ Users + ~2x Y/Y Across Seven Platforms
93
Internet Trends
2019
Interactive Gaming (Text / Talk) =
Discord @ 250MM Users + ~2x Y/Y
0
150MM
300MM
5/17 5/18 5/19
Discord Registered Users
Source: Discord (5/17-4/19).
Registered
Users,
Global
Discord Text / Voice Chat
94
Internet Trends
2019
Interactive Gaming (Watch) =
Twitch…Time + Viewers + ~2x in Two Years
0%
40%
80%
0
2.1MM
4.2MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
Average
Broadcasters
at
Year-End,
Global
(Blue
Bar)
Active Broadcasters*
Source: TwitchTracker (4/19). Note: *Active broadcasters at year end refers to the number of broadcasters who have streamed in the month of
December for a given year. **Average concurrent users refers to the average daily peak of users viewing content on Twitch across a year.
0%
60%
120%
0
15MM
30MM
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
Average
Daily
Streaming
Hours,
Global
(Blue
Bar)
Daily Streaming Hours
0%
40%
80%
0
0.6MM
1.2MM
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
Average
Peak
Concurrent
Daily
Users,
Global
(Blue
Bar)
Peak Concurrent Viewers**
Twitch
95
Internet Trends
2019
Fortnite = Battle Royale…
Game Environment Capped @ 100 Person Groups…
Multiplayer / Cross-Platform Battle Royale
100 Players in Shared World
Players Win via Discovering Items & Outlasting Others
Consoles – Multiplayer Subscribers*
26%
51%
0%
30%
60%
0
50MM
100MM
2014 2015 2016 2017
Xbox
/
Playstation
Online
Multiplayer
Subscribers
(Blue
Bar)
Subscribers
Share
of
Total
Console
Install
Base
(Red
Line)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research (10/18) Brian Nowak / IDC. Note: *For game consoles only (i.e. Xbox Live & Playstation Plus).
Subscription required to play online multiplayer Fortnite games on Xbox platform, but not Playstation (Fortnite is available even to non-subscribers).
96
Internet Trends
2019
…Fortnite = Events…
Shared Experiences Capped @ 100 Person Groups…
In-Game Events / Experiences
Source: Fortnite. Common Sense Media / SurveyMonkey Survey of 766 USA Teens (13-19) who play Fortnite.
Survey conducted online via SurveyMonkey Survey portal (10/18).
Marshmello Concert (2/19)
11MM Player-Viewers
Cube Opening (11/18)
8MM Player-Viewers
50% = Learn Teamwork Skills
44% = Make a Friend Online
40% = Improve Communication Skills
39% = Bond with Siblings
Has Fortnite Helped You _______?
SurveyMonkey / Common Sense Media
Teen Fortnite Player Survey
97
Internet Trends
2019
…Fortnite = Voice Chat…
Collaborative Communication Capped @ 16 Squadmates
Strategize / Bond With Team in
Pre-Game Lobby via Voice
Real-Time In-Game Collaboration With
Team via Voice
To truly see the future of collaborative gameplay & social experiences,
you need a large-scale community to help that happen.
We work really, really hard on Fortnite to maintain a safe experience online –
for example, there's only chat between you & your squadmates.
There's no proximity-based chat, so it's not possible for
one person to grief another person they don't know.
Kim Libreri – CTO, Epic Games, 3/19
Source: Wired (3/19). Epic Games.
98
Internet Trends
2019
Interactive Gaming…
Shared Environments
With Collective Purpose / Goals =
The New Social / Friend Networks?
Recreating Reality Around
Play + Problem Solving
99
Internet Trends
2019
FREEMIUM BUSINESS MODELS =
GROWING & SCALING…
STILL EARLY DAYS IN ENTERPRISE / CONSUMER
’Freemium’ coined by Fred Wilson (Union Square Ventures) & Jarid Lukin in 2006
100
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Businesses =
Free User Experience Enables
More Usage / Engagement /
Social Sharing / Network Effects…
…Premium User Experience Drives
Monetization / Product Innovation
101
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Business Model Evolution =
Gaming → Enterprise → Consumer
102
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Gaming (2001) =
Runescape…
I launched [Runescape] in 2001.
The basic plan was to run it for free, but to pay for my
hobby through advertising. However, when the dot
com bubble began to collapse, advertising dried up &
there was no way to pay for the game's server.
This is how the member [subscription] came about...
once we had people paying, we were able to reinvest
back into the game.
The more we invested, the faster it grew.
Andrew Gower – Runescape / Jagex, Creator, 5/07 0
0.8MM
1.6MM
2003 2005 2007
0%
6%
12%
Millions
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Source: Jagex releases, as compiled by The Guardian (12/03), Gameindustry.biz (2/05),
Runescape Blog (5/07) & GigaOM (6/07). Andrew Gower Interview first appeared on gamasutra.com (5/07).
Note: Users refer to monthly active users. Total Users refers to active users (free + paid) in relevant period.
Paid Users + Share of Total
Premium
…Improve User Experience
Free
Play With Others…
103
Internet Trends
2019
…Freemium Gaming (2017) =
Epic Fortnite
Premium
…Improve User Experience
Free
Play With Others…
Source: Epic Games Releases (2017-2019) The Hollywood Reporter (3/19). Nielsen Superdata (6/18 +1/19)
Note: *Revenue growth estimate based on Superdata’s 3rd party estimate of ~$150MM in Epic Fortnite Revenue in
2017 & $2.4B in 2018 revenue. Fortnite launched in September 2017.
I think it’s a very positive trend that people are
spending time in social experiences. That’s the thing you have
to appreciate with Fortnite. Most people are playing together in
squads with their friends, they’re on voice chat.
They’re playing a video game, but what they’re really doing
is spending time with their friends & chatting all night.
It can last as long as the developers can
keep games fresh & fun – we’re at that point where we’re
able to do it & there’s a business model with free-to-play.
Tim Sweeney - Epic Games, Founder / CEO, 3/19
Epic Fortnite Revenue Growth, per Nielsen Superdata*
0
10x
20x
2017 2018
Revenue
Growth
(2017
=
1x)
104
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Gaming =
Social / Often Mobile / Can Be Transient
Source: Nexon = Annual Company Filings. HearthStone = Activision Blizzard Filings + Morgan Stanley estimates. Zynga = Zynga Annual Filings.
Rovio = Rovio Annual Reporting. Note Paid users refers to users who upgrade to unlock premium features such as ad-free game play.
Paid Users % of Total = share of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period.
0
1MM
2MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
0.0%
1.5%
3.0%
0%
10%
20%
2015 2016 2017 2018
0
5MM
10MM
Nexon
0
3MM
6MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
15%
30%
HearthStone
Zynga
0
0.5MM
1.0MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
1%
2%
Paid Users Paid % of Total Users
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Rovio
105
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Business Model Evolution =
Gaming → Enterprise → Consumer
106
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Enterprise (2006) =
Google G Suite…
Premium
…Enterprise User Experience
Free
Communicate With Others…
Google’s many successful products deliver magical
user experiences [for free] & when I joined Google,
I was inspired to bring that same magic to the
workplace with G Suite...
Building [free] products that are loved by billions of
users has driven a discipline in the G Suite team for
simplicity of design & we are bringing that billion-
user experience to the workplace…you’re actually
seeing that workplace users are demanding it.
Prabhakar Raghavan – Google, SVP of Engineering, 7/18
Source: Google Cloud Disclosures (2019) for G Suite Users. Google Next Conference for quote (7/18). Note: *Customers
refers to the number of paying businesses using G Suite, not the number of paid users (e.g., one company with 10K
employees would be counted as one customer. Google does not disclose the average G Suite customer size.)
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
0
3MM
6MM
G
Suite
Customers
*
Paid Customers*
107
Internet Trends
2019
…Freemium Enterprise (2013) =
Zoom
Paid
…Enterprise User Experience
Free
Communicate With Others…
Our rapid adoption is driven by a virtuous cycle of
positive user experiences.
Individuals typically begin using our platform
when a colleague or associate invites them to a
Zoom meeting.
When attendees experience our platform & realize the
benefits, they often become paying customers to
unlock additional functionality.
Zoom – S-1 Filing, 3/19
Source: Zoom. Note: *Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimate of Zoom Customers with 1-10 employees plus Zoom annual disclosure of customers with 11+ employees (5/19).
Paid Customers*
FQ1 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1
0
150K
300K
Paid
Customers*
FY18 FY19
FY = January 31
FY20
108
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Enterprise =
Collaborative / Business-Critical / Annuity-Like
Source: Dropbox = Public releases & Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimates. Slack = Public press release (05/18), SurveyMonkey =
Company releases. Wix = Company presentation (3/19). Wix total users represent those with an account. Note: Paid users refers to subscribers to
premium products. Paid user % of total = share of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period.
0
0.4MM
0.8MM
2016 2017 2018
0%
2%
4%
SurveyMonkey
0
2MM
4MM
2015 2016 2017
0%
25%
50%
Slack
Paid Users Paid % of Total Users
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
0%
1.5%
3.0%
0
9MM
18MM
2016 2017 2018
Dropbox
0
2MM
4MM
2016 2017 2018
0%
2%
4%
Wix
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
109
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Business Model Evolution =
Gaming → Enterprise → Consumer
110
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Consumer (2008) =
Spotify…
Paid
…Premium User Experience
Free
Share Music / Playlists With Others…
[Spotify] worked because we recognized…
fans wanted all the world's music for free, immediately.
Our users share with their friends the
joy of exploring music through Spotify,
which creates incredible word-of-mouth for our business.
…Our free product drives premium subscription growth,
that leads to better personalization & drives use among
younger demographics with greater potential lifetime value.
Daniel Ek – Spotify, Founder / CEO, 3/18
Source: Spotify Analyst Day Presentation (3/18). Spotify.
0
50MM
100MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
25%
50%
Paid Users + Share of Total
Paid
User
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
111
Internet Trends
2019
…Freemium Consumer (2015) =
Canva
Paid
…Premium User Experience
Free
Design With Others…
Source: Canva (6/19).
We want everyone in the world to be able to design, whether you are
in marketing, sales, a teacher or student - design has become a
critical part of most professions to communicate ideas.
Rather than being stuck with complicated desktop based tools, we
want everyone in the world to be able to create incredible designs
that look professional and make them proud.
Giving people legitimate value before asking them to pay can be a
really useful strategy for any company wanting widespread adoption.
Melanie Perkins – Canva, Co-Founder / CEO, 6/19 0
60MM
120MM
5/16 5/17 5/18 5/19
0
10MM
20MM
Millions
Monthly
Active
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Monthly
Designs
Created
(Red
Line)
Monthly Active Users + Designs Created
112
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Consumer =
Personalized / Efficient / Often Social / Annuity-Like
Source: Amazon Prime = Morgan Stanley estimates. Twitch = Morgan Stanley estimates. Chegg = Goldman Sachs Investment Research
estimates. Cash App = Square public disclosures. Note: Paying users = subscribers for Amazon Prime / Twitch / Chegg. For Cash App, stored
funds represent aggregate customer balances in the app as of the last day of the quarter. For all except Cash App, paid user % of total = share
of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period. Active users for Amazon = Active Paid accounts per MS estimates.
0
2MM
4MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
20%
40%
Twitch
Paid % of Total Users
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
Paid
Users
(Blue
Bar)
0
70MM
140MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
20%
40%
Amazon Prime
0%
15%
30%
2016 2017 2018
0
2MM
4MM
Chegg Paying
User
%
of
Total
(
Red
Line)
Paying
User
%
of
Total
(
Red
Line)
Paid Users Paid % of Total Users
Stored Funds Annualized Card Spend
Cash App
$0
$200MM
$400MM
Q4:16 Q2:17 Q4:17 Q2:18 Q4:18
$0
$2B
$4B
Stored
Funds
in
Cash
App
(Blue
Bar)
Annualized
Cash
Card
Spend
(Red
Line)
Paid Users
113
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Business Evolution =
Started in Gaming
Evolving / Emerging in
Enterprise + Consumer…
All In…Just Getting Started
114
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Business Models =
All In…Just Getting Started
*Excluding China companies where Freemium business models are more mature owing to higher maturity of digital payments, particularly microtransactions / Excludes diversified
companies (such as Apple / Amazon / Microsoft ) owing to significant revenue contribution from non-freemium businesses / Includes private company Epic owing to scale.
**Epic = Midpoint of 23-31MM estimate for Battle Pass subscribers per Timothy O’Shea @ Jeffries (3/19)…not confirmed by Epic Games. Source: CapitalIQ (including currency
conversion) = Nexon / King (2018 Revenue as part of Activision) / Pandora / Mixi / Match Group / Dropbox / Netmarble. Spotify = Wall Street Journal / Company reports. Supercell =
Venture Beat.
Gaming Epic Games 27MM**
Enterprise Dropbox 13MM**
Consumer Spotify 100MM**
Select Publicly Traded Pure-Play Freemium Businesses*
>10MM Paid Subscribers (3/19) >$1B Annual Revenue (2018)
Gaming Nexon 2011
Paid Items / Ads /
Subscriptions
King Digital 2013
Paid Items / Ads /
Subscriptions
Supercell 2014
Paid Items /
Subscriptions
Mixi 2015 Paid Items
Netmarble 2016 Paid Items
Epic Games 2018
Paid Items /
Subscriptions
Enterprise Dropbox 2017 Subscriptions
Consumer Spotify 2014
Subscription /
Ads
Pandora 2015
Subscription /
Ads
Match Group 2016
Subscription /
Ads
$1B+
Revenue
1st Year
Primary
Monetization
Drivers
(Private Company)
(Private Company)
115
Internet Trends
2019
Freemium Business Model
Enabler =
Cloud Deployment…
116
Internet Trends
2019
Cloud Deployment =
Revenue +58% Y/Y…
0%
50%
100%
$0
$7B
$14B
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Amazon AWS Microsoft Azure Google Cloud
Global
Revenue
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
2015
Cloud Service Revenue – Amazon + Microsoft + Google
Source: Amazon AWS = Company filings, Microsoft Azure = Keith Weiss @ Morgan Stanley (4/18), Google Cloud = Brian Nowak @
Morgan Stanley (5/18). Note: Google Cloud revenue based on MS annual estimate, applied to quarters using the seasonality trends
on 2018. Google only included in 2019 growth rates owing to lack of estimates before 2018.
2016 2017 2018 2019
117
Internet Trends
2019
…Cloud Deployment =
22% of Workloads +2x vs. Five Years Ago
22%
0%
50%
100%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Cloud (% of Workloads) Laptop (% of PC Sales)
Smartphone (% of Handset Sales) Online Music (% of Total Sales)
Cloud (% of Enterprise Workloads)
Technology Adoption Rates, Global per Morgan Stanley
Source: Morgan Stanley (5/18-3/19). Note: Estimate of Cloud workload
penetration based on Morgan Stanley CIO survey in Q4 of each year.
Technology
Penetration
/
Adoption
(%)
118
Internet Trends
2019
…Cloud Deployment =
Interest Continues to Rise
27%
39%
37%
49%
0%
25%
50%
PaaS Iaas
Infrastructure as a Service
(IaaS)
Platform as a Service
(PaaS)
Source: Morgan Stanley Q1:19 CIO Survey. N= 100 USA / EU CIOs of major companies. Infrastructure as a service defined as
cloud computing that uses virtualized resources in the cloud (i.e. processing, storage, etc.), but not software or other value add
services. Platform as a service defined as cloud based hardware / software platforms, such as managed middleware.
Cloud Usage – CIO Survey, USA / EU per Morgan Stanley
Q1:18 Q1:19
%
Respondents
119
Internet Trends
2019
…Freemium / Subscription Business Model
Enabler =
Efficient Digital Payments
120
Internet Trends
2019
Digital Payments =
>50% of Day-to-Day Transactions
2%
2%
2%
5%
4%
7%
7%
8%
9%
14%
41%
Other
Wearables / Contactless
Smart Home Device
QR Codes
Other In-App Payments
Mobile Messenger Apps
P2P Transfer
Other Mobile Payments
Buy Buttons
Other Online
In-Store
0% 25% 50%
% of Global Responses (6/18)
Transactions by Payment Channel
Thinking of your past 10 everyday transactions, how many were made in each of the following ways?
Source: Visa Global Commerce Unbound 2018 (2/19). Note: Full question was ‘Please think about the payments you make for everyday transactions (excluding rent,
mortgage, or other larger, infrequent payments). Thinking of your past 10 everyday transactions, how many were made in each of the following ways?’, GfK Research
conducted the survey with n = 8,127 across 20 countries (USA, Canada, UK, France, Poland, Germany, Sweden, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Australia, China,
India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, UAE, Kenya), between 5/31/18 – 6/29/18. All respondents do not work in Financial Services, Marketing, Marketing Research,
Advertising, or Public Relations, own & currently use a smartphone, have a savings or checking account; own/use a computer or tablet, & own a credit or debit card.
59% =
Digital
In-Store
121
Internet Trends
2019
DATA GROWTH =
CHANGING WAYS THINGS WORK…
RAPIDLY & GLOBALLY
122
Internet Trends
2019
Data
Collection + Analysis + Utilization =
Evolving From
Humans to Humans / Computers
123
Internet Trends
2019
Pre-1995
Winning Businesses =
Use Human Data / Insights
To Improve Customer Experiences…
124
Internet Trends
2019
Product Development (1890s-1950s)…
IBM = Feet-on-Street Customer Input
$0
$1B
$2B
1910 1935 1960
IBM
Annual Revenue
Revenue
IBM developed a sales force that became deeply
knowledgeable about their customers’ operations & could
explain benefits specific to each organization.
Customers became highly engaged with IBM
employees to explain what product innovations they
needed to better use these [tabulation machines] that had
become so essential to their operations.
Research & development at IBM depended on this
interaction between engineers & customers.
James Cortada – Change & Continuity at IBM, 3/18
Source: IBM Revenue per IBM Online History Archives (Collected 2019). James W. Cortada’s ‘Change & Continuity’ at IBM: Key Themes in Histories of
IBM (Cambridge Press, Spring 2018 edition). Cimarron City Library Digital Archives. Note: Image contains a mixture of IBM sales people, engineers &
customers gathered @ IBM Corporation School for collaborative working sessions. Photo taken 1951.
Sales Force + Customers
125
Internet Trends
2019
Product Development (1970s)…
Nike = Employee / User Input
Nike
Annual Revenue
All our employees were runners,
we understood the consumer very well…
We & the consumer were one & the same.
We got to know the players at the top of the game & did
everything we could to understand what they needed,
both from a technological & a design perspective.
Our engineers & designers spent a lot of time
talking to the athletes about what they needed
both functionally & aesthetically.
Phil Knight – Nike, Founder, 7/92
Source: Nike revenue from 1981 Nike Annual Report Quote: High-Performance Marketing: An Interview with Nike’s Phil Knight (HBR July/August 1992 issue)
Image: Nike. Note: Image Depicts Oregon Track Coach / Trainer Using Nike Shoes in Training & Improving New Models Using His Learnings.
$0
$250MM
$500MM
1977 1979 1981
Employee / User
Revenue
126
Internet Trends
2019
Product Development (1980s)…
Chrysler = Focus Group Research
$0
$14B
$28B
1981 1984 1987
1984: Chrysler
Launches Dodge
Caravan & Plymouth
Voyager Minivans
Chrysler
Annual Revenue
1978 clinics in Atlanta, Denver & San Diego
showed that customers wanted –
The ability to park in a standard garage,
a side door opening at least 30 inches wide…
seating for 3 people across, a flat interior floor,
removable seats & the ability to
walk from one end of the van to another.
David Zatz – Hemmings Magazine / ‘Mopar Minivans,’ 2/19
Source: Chrysler revenue as reported in The New York Times in each year. Data does not include pro-forma revenue from
acquisition of American Motors Corp. Quote: David Zatz’s ‘Mopar Minivans: Creating the first 20 years of Dodge, Chrysler, &
Plymouth “magic wagons’ as excerpted in Hemming’s Magazine (2019) Image: New York Times Digital Archives (1984)
Focus Groups
Revenue
127
Internet Trends
2019
Product Development (1980s)…
Intuit = All-In Focus on Customer Testing
$0
$150MM
$300MM
1984 1989 1994
We recruited people off the streets & timed their
Kwik-Chek (Quicken) usage with a stopwatch.
After every test, programmers worked
to improve the program.
We did usability testing in 1984, five years before
anyone else, there’s a big difference between doing
it & having marketing people doing it as part of their
design…a very big difference between doing it &
having it be the core of what engineers focus on.
Scott Cook – Intuit, Co-Founder, 9/03
Source: Inside Intuit, Suzanne Taylor, 2003 Photo courtesy of Virginia Boyd as presented by Inside Intuit. Revenue as reported in ‘Inside
Intuit’ for 1988-1990 & as reported to the SEC for 1993/1994. Intuit released its first revenue-generating product, Kwik-Chek in 1984.
User / Usability Testing Intuit
Annual Revenue
Revenue
Kwik-Chek User Testing @ Palo Alto Junior League
(Inside Intuit, Taken 1984)
128
Internet Trends
2019
…1990s-2000s…
Internet + Mobile Devices + Cloud
Netscape Web Browser – 1994
Amazon Web Services (AWS) – 2006
Apple iPhone – 2007
Apple App Store – 2008
129
Internet Trends
2019
…Post-1995
Winning Businesses =
Use Digital Data / Insights
To Improve Customer Experiences…
130
Internet Trends
2019
Marketing Optimization (Post-1995)…
Capital One = Customer Data
$0
$2B
$4B
1991 1994 1997 2000
Capital One
Annual Revenue
…the technology & information revolution had
transformed the credit card business into an
information business…allowing the capture of
information on every customer
interaction & transaction.
With this information, we can conduct scientific tests;
build actuarially-based models of consumer behavior &
tailor products, pricing, credit lines & account management
to meet the individual needs & wants of each customer.
By exploiting this insight, we have transformed the
one-size-fits-all credit card industry & created
one of the fastest growing companies in America.
Capital One Annual Report – 1996
Source: Capital One Revenue From CapitalIQ (Collected 2019) Quote: 1996 Capital One Annual Report Image: 1998 Capital One Annual Report
Digital Information Capture
Revenue
131
Internet Trends
2019
User Experience + Sales Optimization (Post-1995)…
Amazon = Customer Data
This is Day 1 for The Internet –
& if we execute well – for Amazon.com.
Today, online commerce saves customers money &
precious time. Tomorrow, through personalization, online
commerce will accelerate the very process of discovery.
Amazon.com uses the Internet to create
real value for its customers &, by doing so,
hopes to create an enduring franchise.
This year, we maintained a dogged focus on improving the
shopping experience…we now offer...vastly more reviews,
content, browsing options & recommendation features.
Amazon Annual Report – 1997
Source: Amazon Revenue from CapitalIQ (Collected 2019) Quote: 1997 Amazon Annual Report Image: Amazon.com (2019)
Real-Time
Digital Information Capture
$0
$125B
$250B
1994 2006 2018
Amazon
Annual Revenue
Revenue
132
Internet Trends
2019
…2000s
Winning Businesses =
Build / Use
Data Plumbing Tools
To Use Digital Data / Insights
To Improve Customer Experiences
133
Internet Trends
2019
Data Plumbing Tools =
Helping Businesses Real-Time…
Collect Data…
Understand Customer Wants & Improve Business Processes
Increase Customer Input / Improve Products
Manage Direct Customer / Subscriber Relationships
Improve Consumer Decision Making
…Manage Connections…
Organize Internal + External Communication
Communicate with Customers via Multiple Channels
Organize Customer Data Across IT Systems
…Optimize Data
Improve Analytics / Recommendations / Personalization
Respond To Customer Events at Scale
Discover Business Insights + Optimize Fulfillment
Manage Data Growth & Eliminate Inefficiencies
134
Internet Trends
2019
Qualtrics + FabFitFun = Collect Data to…
Understand Customer Wants & Improve Business Processes
Every organization in the world needs to collect
experience data to close the massive gaps between the
experiences they think they are delivering & what is really
happening, both internally & externally.
Collecting experience data through Qualtrics allows
companies to make adjustments in real time & adapt
to fast-paced, changing circumstances. This allows
those companies to quickly close experience gaps
with their customers & enables employees to work
more efficiently to serve those customers.
Ryan Smith – Qualtrics, Co-Founder, 6/19
Source: Qualtrics S-1 Filing (10/18). Morgan Stanley Estimate of 2018 Revenue (as part of SAP). FabFitFun (6/19)
Qualtrics = Experience Management Qualtrics
Revenue
Revenue
FabFitFun = Community Input FabFitFun
Subscribers
We’re constantly tapping our members for real-
time feedback to better understand the products &
trends they like, the ingredients & formulations that
get them excited, & the categories that connect
them back to the FabFitFun brand & community.
We’ve aggregated millions of data points about
consumer product & brand preferences allowing us to
precisely forecast satisfaction with personalized
curations & enable a flywheel between deeper
understanding & an improved member experience.
Daniel Broukhim– FabFitFun, Co-Founder / Co-CEO, 6/19
$0
$250MM
$500MM
2016 2017 2018
0
0.7MM
1.4MM
2016 2017 2018
Subscribers
135
Internet Trends
2019
Salesforce + Adidas = Collect Data to…
Increase Customer Input / Improve Products
…as every company transforms their relationships
with their customers…they're fundamentally
changing how they sell & how they service,
how they market & innovate.
They're connecting with their customers in a
whole new way. They're building incredible new
intelligent 360-degree views of their customers, &
they're using extraordinary new tools to get
faster, more informed decisions & at the heart of
all this transformation is Salesforce.
Marc Benioff – Salesforce, Co-Founder / Co-CEO, 8/18
Source: Salesforce SEC Filing. Goldman Sachs Investment Research. Marc Benioff @ FQ2:19 Salesforce.com Earnings
Call (8/18). Salesforce Connections 2018 Keynote Address, Adidas Annual Report (2018)
Salesforce
Annual Revenue
Salesforce = Customer Engagement
$0
$8B
$16B
FY2001 FY2010 FY2019
Revenue
FY = January
We need to be able to respond to consumer
expectations immediately. The relationship
between Adidas & Salesforce allows us to be
proactive in our designs – our ability to roll out
new products & influence trends is amazing...
Our direct connection with customers through
Salesforce basically makes it happen overnight.
Kasper Rorsted – Adidas, CEO, 6/18
Adidas
E-Commerce Sales
€0
€1B
€2B
2014 2016 2018
E-Commerce
Sales
Adidas = Customer Co-Creation
136
Internet Trends
2019
Stripe + Slack = Collect Data to…
Manage Direct Customer / Subscriber Relationships
…the most innovative companies are establishing
recurring relationships with their customers.
As these businesses iterate to find the best pricing &
sales strategy, they’re often unnecessarily constrained by
what their billing system allows.
[Customers] needed to do more than just simple
subscription management. Based on feedback from many
of our customers & others, we built Stripe Billing to
provide fast-growing businesses the tools to move quickly
& design billing around customer experience.
Noah Pepper – Stripe, Engineering & Product Management, 4/18
Source: Stripe blog post (4/18). Stripe (6/19). Slack public disclosures (2015-2018). Stewart Butterfield Interview with SaaStr (7/15).
Stripe = Transaction Management
Slack = Effective Billing of Users Slack
Paying Share of Total Users
Slack recently launched Fair Billing Policy & it
makes our customers say 'Wow, that's amazing.‘
They'll tweet about it, tell their friends about it.
They'll be very happy with us. They'll be much more
likely to renew. They have a positive impression.
That positive impression, obviously,
makes a huge difference.
Stewart Butterfield – Founder / CEO, Slack, 7/15
Paying
Share
of
Total
Users
2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
25%
50%
Stripe
Stripe Billing
1.0x
3.5x
6.0x
2016 2017 2018 2019YTD
137
Internet Trends
2019
Plaid + Betterment = Collect Data to…
Improve Consumer Decision Making
Source: Plaid (6/19). Betterment disclosures and press releases (3/16-6/19).
Bank accounts connected refers to accounts connected to 3rd party services via Plaid.
Betterment
Assets Under Management
Betterment = Automated Financial Management
Emotions drive human behavior, especially when it
comes to money – people often engage in sub-optimal
behaviors like trying to time the market.
Delivering high quality automated financial advice
in real-time at scale requires access to consumers’
financial data. We’re able to use data from Plaid
and other sources to deliver personalized, low-cost
financial advice to more than 450,000 customers.
Jon Stein – Betterment, CEO, 6/19
Assets
Under
Management
Plaid
Bank Accounts Connected
Plaid = Financial Data Access
0
90MM
180MM
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
In the past, financial services were organized
geographically – a bank would serve a local population
& offer whatever services it thought that area needed –
which often meant many consumers were underserved.
Today, a new class of user-centric financial services
companies are emerging that use data to tailor their
services to the specific needs of individual consumers.
Our goal at Plaid is to build the infrastructure that
enables consumers to easily & securely share their
financial data with any financial services app that
helps them live healthier financial lives.
Zach Perret – Plaid, Co-Founder / CEO, 6/19
Bank
Accounts
Connected
with
Plaid
$0
$10B
$20B
12/15 9/16 6/17 3/18 12/18
138
Internet Trends
2019
Slack + HelloFresh = Manage Connections to…
Organize Internal + External Communication
What Google is doing for the web,
we’re trying to structure by channel.
Team-first, organization-first approach to
messages as opposed to individual first.
As individual productivity increases, it's the handoff
between people that gets more complicated.
The talking to other people is the actual work.
Stewart Butterfield – Slack, Founder / CEO, 5/18
Source: Slack Public Press Releases, Stewart Butterfield Interview With Inc. (5/18). Slack Public Case Study, Twitter (4/19) Hello Fresh Annual Reports.
Slack
Daily Active Users
Slack = Communication Channels
HelloFresh
Annual Orders
HelloFresh = Feedback Mentoring
HelloFresh uses Slack bots to
monitor social media.
Whenever someone mentions HelloFresh,
the bot pushes these notices into a Slack
channel. They’re similarly alerted whenever
they get a review of their app on the
Apple Store or Google Play.
HelloFresh – 9/17
Annual
Orders
Daily
Active
Users,
End
of
Year
0
6MM
12MM
2014 2016 2018
0
15MM
30MM
2016 2017 2018
139
Internet Trends
2019
Twilio + Shopify = Manage Connections to…
Communicate with Customers via Multiple Channels
15 years ago, talking to customers meant you
had a phone number & customers could call it.
Now, you’ve got text messaging, chat,
mobile apps with push notifications, WeChat,
WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger.
We want to provide one system that allows
companies to keep up with this rapidly changing
landscape & constantly iterating on those customer
experiences with easy to use tools & infrastructure
that they don’t have to worry about scaling.
Jeff Lawson – Twilio, Founder / CEO. 11/17
Twilio
Customers
Twilio = Customer Communication
Shopify
Active Merchants
Shopify = Multi-Channel Dialog
We want to create an easy experience for our
customers…we want to establish trust &
form a human relationship with our customers
[merchants] when they reach out for
support on our platform.
It is essential to give our team the tools to cultivate
those relationships from anywhere in the world on
the channels that our customers want to use.
Chris Wilson – Shopify, Merchant Operations, 11/18
0
40K
80K
2014 2016 2018
2014 2016 2018
0
450K
900K
Source: Twilio Releases / Case Study (11/18). Jeff Lawson interview with BlogGeek.me (11/17).
Shopify active merchants per Brian Essex @ Morgan Stanley.
Active
Merchants,
Global
Customers,
End
of
Year
140
Internet Trends
2019
Segment + Meredith = Manage Connections to…
Organize Customer Data Across IT Systems
Source: Segment, Peter Reinhardt Blog Post (9/18). Segment Release (2018) Meredith Annual Reports (2012-2018). Note: Meredith digital advertising reflects National Media segment.
Segment
Annual Recurring Revenue
Segment = Customer Data Infrastructure
Meredith
Digital Advertising Share of Total
Meredith = Content Recommendation
Digital
Advertising
Revenue
(%
of
Total)
0%
20%
40%
2012 2015 2018
Today’s customers expect highly relevant,
contextualized experiences wherever they interact with
a business. However, this is an extremely difficult
technology problem to solve.
Businesses are interacting with customers across
dozens of digital channels, leading to a tangled mess
of data that is siloed throughout their organization.
Customer Data Infrastructure solves this problem.
It allows companies to collect, manage & easily
route their first-party data to whichever application
requires it, ensuring customer experiences are
consistent and relevant.
Peter Reinhardt – Segment, Co-Founder / CEO, 6/19
Segment has enabled us to streamline
the customer data capture process,
while maintaining flexibility to customize
for each of our 36+ magazine brands as needed.
Before adopting Segment, we were spending far too
much money on disjointed analytics & we had
no way to look at the entire network at scale…
We now look across the entire organization to make sure
we’re best serving all of these groups.
Grace Preyapongpisan & Kerry-Anne Doyle –
Meredith, Business Intelligence, 1/18
141
Internet Trends
2019
Snowflake + Instacart = Optimize Data to…
Improve Analytics / Recommendations / Personalization
There's a lot of value in business data, but most
companies struggle to extract that value.
The issue is with existing technology. The list of
challenges we hear from our customers is consistent:
Data is segregated into separate silos,
significant energy goes into managing
infrastructure, concurrency & resource
limitations get in the way of business needs &
overall the tools are hard to work with.
Snowflake's unique architecture solves these problems
being built from the ground up to leverage the scale,
performance & elasticity of the cloud.
Frank Slootman – Snowflake, CEO, 6/19
Source: Snowflake (5/19). Instacart (12/18).
Snowflake
Monthly Active Customers
Snowflake = Broad Data Access
Instacart
Households Covered
Instacart = Product Replacements
Every time an Instacart shopper scans an item into
their cart or marks an item as “not found,” we get
information that helps us make granular predictions of
an item’s in-store availability. This helps us
recommend appropriate replacements for
items likely to be out-of-stock.
Among other improvements, performing
complicated feature engineering in our
Snowflake data warehouse instead of python,
this new [item replacement] tool, which scores
15x more items than previous tools, was built
with 1/5 of the resources in 1/4 of the time.
Instacart – 12/18
<20MM
100MM+
2016 2017 2018
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
~2,000
142
Internet Trends
2019
Confluent + Accor = Optimize Data to…
Respond to Customer Events at Scale
Companies are still running on tech from batch-process
era, yet their customers expect experiences with
real-time, contextual information.
Companies are now re-architecting their businesses
around real-time data with a new kind of data
infrastructure called event streaming platforms.
With Confluent, companies can connect all of their
systems & power applications with live data sources.
Now, they can engage their customers
based on real-time events.
Jay Kreps – Confluent, CEO, 6/19
Source: Confluent (6/19), Accor (6/19)
Confluent
Annual Bookings
Confluent = Data / Event / Response
Accor
Monthly Requests for Lodging Availability
Accor = Availability Request Processing
Accor’s augmented hospitality offerings include 4,800
hotels, resorts, & residences across 100 countries.
As part of a shift to a more connected, real-time
future, Confluent is helping simplify & transform
the booking lifecycle, connecting the data & event
streams that are triggered the second a customer
clicks ‘book,’ from processing the payment & fraud
detection to adding dietary requirements & room
preferences from previous bookings.
Julien Ramakichenin – VP Distributed & Intelligent Systems, Accor, 6/19
0x
3x
6x
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19
0
3B
6B
143
Internet Trends
2019
Looker + FarFetch = Optimize Data to…
Discover Business Insights + Optimize Fulfillment
Looker helps companies better understand
all the data they have & I think this has
been a holy grail for a long time.
Companies want to be data-driven. They want
their employees to be able to ask questions
& get factual answers.
When we started out, companies didn’t understand
the lifetime value of their customers
completely, & there was this chaos going –
we wanted to bring data into the reach of any
company so it could use it more effectively.
Frank Bien – Looker, President & CEO, 8/18
Source: Looker (6/19) San Jose Mercury News (8/18). Farfetch release (3/19).
Looker
Customers
Looker = Business Intelligence
FarFetch
Annual Net Orders
FarFetch = Optimize Order Fulfillment
0
2MM
4MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual
Orders
(Net
Cancellations)
In luxury fashion, there is often a mismatch between
supply & demand...Emerging brands typically have
no route to the global market & their distribution is limited.
Farfetch has more supply / demand data than
anyone else in the luxury fashion industry & is now
supplementing it with even more market data.
Over time, Farfetch will turn that data into strategic
commercial insights to form the basis of advisory for the
fashion industry (starting with the luxury brands) through
the development of a disruptive insights platform.
Farfetch – 3/19
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
144
Internet Trends
2019
UiPath + Sumitomo Mitsui = Optimize Data to…
Manage Data Growth & Eliminate Inefficiencies
…[Robotic Process Automation’s (RPA)] benefits
compound as employees are freed from the
burden of routine, monotonous manual work,
enabling them to focus on high-value tasks such
as improving customer service, enabling front-line
staff to retrieve more data at a faster rate &
enhancing every aspect, from the booking
experience to customer service support.
This leads to greater employee satisfaction &
more productive staff who deliver better customer
service experience & positive feedback from
customers.
Daniel Dines – UiPath, Founder / CEO, 4/18
Source: UiPath. Daniel Dines interview with Aviation & Defense Universe (4/18). Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation press release (11/17) & 2017
annual report (5/18). Digital penetration defined as share of customers using any digital channel to conduct banking operations.
Customers,
End
Of
Year
UiPath Computer
Vision Training
UiPath
Customers
UiPath = Data-Driven Process Automation
Sumitomo Mitsui
Digital Customer Penetration*
Sumitomo Mitsui = Increase Support Capacity
Our key areas of RPA implementation include –
information gathering processes used to enhance
sales & planning capabilities (customer transaction /
industry data) & supporting branch operations
(customer performance reports / mortgage loan
brochures).
The anticipated 3MM person-hours of productivity
to be generated over the next 3 years [by using
RPA] will be used to expand value-add operations,
like enhancement of sales capacity through
improved customer proposals.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
Share
of
Customers
Using
Digital
Services
0%
15%
30%
2016 2017 2018
0
1.5K
3.0K
2016 2017 2018
145
Internet Trends
2019
…Data Plumbing Tools =
Helping Businesses Real-Time
Collect Data…
Understand Customer Wants & Improve Business Processes
Increase Customer Input / Improve Products
Manage Direct Customer / Subscriber Relationships
Improve Consumer Decision Making
…Manage Connections…
Organize Internal + External Communication
Communicate with Customers via Multiple Channels
Organize Customer Data Across IT Systems
…Optimize Data
Improve Analytics / Recommendations / Personalization
Respond To Customer Events at Scale
Discover Business Insights + Optimize Fulfillment
Manage Data Growth & Eliminate Inefficiencies
146
Internet Trends
2019
Data is now fundamental to how people work &
the most successful companies have intelligently
integrated it into everyone's daily workflow…
Data is the new application.
Frank Bien – CEO & President, Looker, 6/19
147
Internet Trends
2019
Data / Artificial Intelligence
– Used Properly –
Can Improve Customer Satisfaction
148
Internet Trends
2019
Retail Customer Satisfaction =
Can Rise With Data + Personalization
Source: *Accenture survey of 8,000 consumers in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, The UK, & USA (2018).
Note: Passively sharing data includes things like purchase history, etc. Active sharing data would include brand preference, favorite fabrics, etc.
91%
Prefer Brands that Provide
Personalized Offers / Recommendations
83%
Willing to Passively Share Data in
Exchange for Personalized Experiences
74%
Willing to Actively Share Data in
Exchange for Personalized Experiences
Survey of Retail Customers
Accenture (Global*)
149
Internet Trends
2019
People around the world have called for comprehensive
privacy regulation in line with the European Union’s
General Data Protection Regulation, & I agree…
…[New Regulation] should protect your right
to choose how your information is used —
while enabling companies to use information for
safety purposes & to provide services.
Mark Zuckerberg – Co-Founder / CEO, Facebook, 3/19
150
Internet Trends
2019
Data Volume + Utilization =
Evolving Rapidly / Broadly
151
Internet Trends
2019
Data Volume = Extraordinary Growth…
~13% Structured / Tagged & Rising Rapidly
0ZB
100ZB
200ZB
2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E
Source: IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere. Note:
1 petabyte = 1MM gigabytes, 1 zeta byte = 1MM petabytes of new data created / captured each year. The grey area in the graph represents
data generated, not stored. Structured data indicates data that has been organized so that it is easily searchable & includes metadata &
machine-to-machine (M2M) data. Replicated data = data that is a copy of the original..
9% Structured
10%
16%
32%
13%
New Data Captured / Created / Replicated, per IDC
2018
Data
Volume,
Annual,
Global
(ZB)
Original
Data
Replicated
Data
152
Internet Trends
2019
Data Propagation = Expanding…
Endpoints ⇋ Edge ⇋ Core
Source: Adapted from Graphics presented in IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere.
People
Connected
Processes
Branch Offices
Large
Datacenters,
Including Public &
Private Cloud
ENDPOINT
EDGE
CORE
153
Internet Trends
2019
0%
35%
70%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Consumer Enterprise Cloud
Data Stewardship = Evolving…
Enterprise Surpassed Consumer…Cloud Overtaking Both
Data Stored by Manager, per IDC
Source: IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere.
Note: Consumer refers to devices owned by end users, such as smartphones, computers, external hard drives, etc. Enterprise refers to data
stored by businesses, often in on-premise data centers. Public cloud refers to services such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure,
Google Cloud, etc. Note: 2018 = last full year before release of report. 2019-2025 are estimated from current trends.
Share
of
Total,
Global
(%)
2018
154
Internet Trends
2019
Data Volume Share = EMEA Leads…
Followed by Fast Rising China…USA Falling
0%
20%
40%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
New Data Captured / Created / Replicated by Region, per IDC
Source: IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere. IDC estimates
that China’s Data captured / created / replicated will grow 30% annually for next 7 years owing to more Internet users creating more data in China &
China’s above average usage of video surveillance – video is by far the most data-intensive type of data commonly captured / created / replicated today.
EMEA’s datasphere is the largest in the world today owing, in part, to their mature use of video surveillance technology. Note: EMEA = Europe, Middle
East & Africa. ROW = Rest of World. Note: 2018 = last full year before release of report. 2019-2025 are estimated from current trends.
2018
Share
of
Total,
Global
(%)
China
EMEA USA Asia (Ex-China) ROW
155
Internet Trends
2019
The data-driven world will be always on, always tracking, always monitoring,
always listening & always watching – because it will be always learning.
What we perceive to be randomness will be bounded into
patterns of normality by sophisticated artificial intelligence algorithms
that will deliver the future in new & personalized ways.
Artificial intelligence will drive even more automation into businesses & feed
processes & engagements that will deliver new levels of efficiency & products
that are tailored to business outcomes & individual customer preferences.
Today, companies are leveraging data to improve customer experiences,
open new markets, make employees & processes more productive &
create new sources of competitive advantage…
Traditional paradigms will be redefined (like vehicle or white goods ownership)
& ethical, moral & societal norms will be challenged…
David Reinsel / John Gantz / John Rydning – IDC, The Digitization of the World – From Edge to Core, 11/18
156
Internet Trends
2019
Data Volume + Utilization…
Technology Change > Human Adaptability
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Rate
of
Change
Time
Technology
Human
Adaptability
Source: Adapted from quotes originally appearing in ‘Thank you For Being Late’ by Thomas Friedman, 2016. Updated in June 2019 by Astro Teller.
We Are
Here
Humans’ ability to adapt to
technological change is increasing,
but it is not keeping pace with the speed
of scientific & technological innovation.
To overcome the resulting friction,
humans can adapt by developing
skills that enable faster learning &
quicker iteration & experimentation.
Developing these skills is particularly important
for policy makers & regulators who are looking
to protect the public interest. They need to be
ready to try new approaches, iterate &
change with the times so tech progress
goes hand in hand with public benefit.
Astro Teller – X, The Moonshot Factory
Adapted from Thomas Friedman’s Thank You For Being Late, 2016
Potential Human
Adaptability Acceleration
Owing to Faster Learning &
Smarter Regulation
157
Internet Trends
2019
Consumers + Businesses + Regulators =
Increasingly Drinking from Data Firehose
Source: The Canadian Press
158
Internet Trends
2019
…INTERNET USAGE =
THERE ARE CONCERNS…THERE IS GOODNESS
159
Internet Trends
2019
Usage Concern =
Overload…
160
Internet Trends
2019
8%
17%
36%
39%
6%
12%
28%
36%
0% 25% 50%
65+
50-64
30-49
18-29
Adults ‘Almost Constantly’ Online =
26% vs. 21% Three Years Ago
Source: Pew Research (7/15 + 1/18)
% of Respondents in Pew Survey, USA
2015
2018
% of Adults Online ‘Almost Constantly’
21%
26%
0%
15%
30%
All Adults
%
of
Respondents,
USA
By Age Group
Overall
2015 2018
Pew Survey (USA)
161
Internet Trends
2019
Social Media =
Positive & Negative
Sleep Quality / Amount
Fear of Missing Out
Bullying
Body Image
Anxiety
Depression
Average
Loneliness
Real-World Relationships
Access To Health Info
Awareness of Others
Emotional Support
Community Building
Self-Identity
Self-Expression
Worse /
Negative
Better /
Positive
More Positive
More Negative
Do Social Media Platforms You Use Make These
Health-Related Factors Better or Worse?
Source: Royal Society For Public Health Survey of 1,479 British teens in ‘early-2017’ Each teen was asked to rate 5 of the most popular social
networks (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat & Instagram) on each dimension. Data presented = average of scores for each social network.
.
162
Internet Trends
2019
Digital Media =
Users Taking Action to Reduce Usage
39%
16%
52%
57%
0%
30%
60%
Used Parental Controls For
Websites
Used Parental Controls For
Phone Use
2015 2018
Source: Deloitte Mobile Consumer Survey, US (11/18) Pew Research (7/15 + 1/18)
Parent Actions to Regulate Children’s
Internet / Phone Usage
47%
63%
0%
35%
70%
2017 2018
%
of
Respondents,
USA
% of Adults Trying to Limit Personal
Smartphone Use, USA
Used Digital
Parental Controls
for Phone Use
Used Digital
Parental Controls
for Websites
%
of
Parent
Respondents,
USA
Pew Survey (USA)
163
Internet Trends
2019
Digital Media =
Businesses Taking Action to Help Users Monitor Usage
2018
Major Platforms Launched Wellness / Time Tracking Features
Apple
Screen Time
Google
Digital Wellbeing
Facebook
Your Time on Facebook
YouTube
Time Watched
Source: Apple, YouTube, Google, Facebook
164
Internet Trends
2019
Social Media Usage = Decelerating…
+1% vs. 6% Y/Y
0%
8%
16%
1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19
0
1.2
2.4
Daily Time Spent on Social Media, Global
Source: Hootsuite & WeAreSocial Digital 2019 report (1/19). Note: 2019 Estimate owing to the fact that users were surveyed in January 2019, before they have completed the year 2019.
Daily
Hours
Spent
(Blue
Bar)
Growth,
Y/Y
(Red
Line)
165
Internet Trends
2019
…Usage Concern =
Privacy…
166
Internet Trends
2019
Digital Media =
Privacy Concerns High But Moderating
People More Concerned About Internet Privacy vs. One Year Ago, Global
64%
52%
0%
40%
80%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: CIGI-IPSOS Global Survey on Internet Security & Trust 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018. 2018 =
24,750 Internet users from 12/29/17-3/5/18. 2017 = 24,225, 2016 = 24,143, 2014 = 23,376.
%
of
Respondents
2018 – The New York Times reveals
Cambridge Analytica improperly
accesses 87MM Facebook profiles
2017 – Equifax reveals the personal
financial records of
over 145MM Americans owing to an
unsecured web portal
2016 – Yahoo! reveals that 3B
Customer records, including names,
address & encrypted passwords were
breached
2015 – Anthem Health announces that
80MM personal health
records were stolen in a
‘sophisticated attack’
2014 – The New York Times reports on
NSA documents showcasing government
tracking of USA smartphone use
167
Internet Trends
2019
Regulators / Businesses =
Improving Consumer Privacy Control
Businesses Improving
Privacy Management
Source: Facebook (5/18). Google (4/18). EU – (3/18) State of California (6/18)
Facebook Google
2018 2019
Regulators Mandating
Privacy Rules / Policies
EU - GDPR
Passed – 2016
Effective – 2018
California State
Passed – 2018
Effective – 2020
168
Internet Trends
2019
Digital Media =
Encrypted Messaging / Traffic Rising Rapidly
Source: Google, Tencent, Twitter, Facebook, Apple, Telegram releases & Morgan Stanley estimates. Note: *iMessage2 MAUs calculated by install base of Apple iPhones, as
estimated by Credit Suisse (2014-2017). WhatsApp employs end-to-end encryption by default. Facebook Messenger has end-to-end encryption capabilities but users have to
manually enable them. Instagram does not have end-to-end encryption but Facebook is planning to add that feature & make Facebook Messenger encrypted by default (1/19). All
Gmail messages are encrypted at rest and in transit. Fortinet Q3:18 Quarterly Threat Landscape Report (11/18). HTTPS = Hyper Text Transfer Protocol Secure is the secure
53%
87%
Q1:16 Q3:16 Q1:17 Q3:17 Q1:18 Q3:18 Q1:19
0%
50%
100%
% of Web Traffic Encrypted
%
of
Web
Traffic,
Global
Select Messenger MAUs
0
4B
8B
2014 2015 2016 2017
Default End-to-End Encryption
Optional / Announced End-to-End Encryption
No End-to-End Encryption
Monthly
Active
Users
169
Internet Trends
2019
…Usage Concern =
Problematic Content / Activity
170
Internet Trends
2019
More Than Half of Humanity (& Rising) =
Online
24%
51%
0%
30%
60%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Internet
Penetration,
Global Internet Penetration, 2018
Source: CIA World Factbook, United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Internet user data is as of mid-year.
Internet user data: Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / InternetWorldStats
/ Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII / GlobalWebIndex (Indonesia).
171
Internet Trends
2019
Source: The Journal of Media Economics (11/14) & The International Journal of Press / Politics (12/15).
Media Maxim =
People Prefer Negative News (2014)…
We use a lab experiment to capture participants’
news selection biases, alongside a survey
capturing their stated news preferences…
regardless of what participants say, they
exhibit a preference for negative news content.
Marc Trussler & Stuart Soroka – Consumer Demand for Cynical & Negative News Frames, 3/14
172
Internet Trends
2019
No one attempting to derive an estimate of the
present conditions in New York from the
front page contents of our many newspapers
could be blamed for concluding that society
is on the verge of deplorable anarchy.
James E. Rogers – University of Chicago Press, Quoting The Evening Post in The American Newspaper, 1909
…Media Maxim =
People Prefer Negative News (1909)
173
Internet Trends
2019
Problematic Content on Internet =
Can Be Less Filtered + More Amplified
174
Internet Trends
2019
Then
News via Edited Text
Images / Streaming =
Can Be More Powerful Than Text
Source: The Library of Congress, The New York Times, Pixabay, Ring
Now
News via Live Images
175
Internet Trends
2019
Google Apple Twitter Toutiao Reddit
Search
History
Algorithms =
Can Amplify Users Own Patterns
Reading
History
Followed
Accounts
App
Interactions
Followed
Interests
Newsfeeds Curated Using…
Source: Google, Apple, Twitter, ByteDance, Reddit
176
Internet Trends
2019
Social Media =
Can Amplify Trending Topics
43%
21%
12%
0%
25%
50%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Facebook
YouTube
Twitter
Source: Pew Research (9/18). Note Survey = 4,581 respondents interviewed between 7/30/18 & 8/12/18 vs. historical data from 2016 & 2013.
Note: Instagram / LinkedIn / Reddit / Snapchat / WhatsApp / Tumblr not shown owing to less than 10% of respondents using them to get news in 2018.
Do You Ever Get News or News Headlines from ____ ?
Share
of
Respondents
(%)
Pew Survey (USA)
177
Internet Trends
2019
Traditional Media Platforms =
Can Amplify Social Media Trending Topics
0%
3%
6%
2010 2012 2014 2016
% Articles Citing Content Originally
Posted To Facebook / Twitter (Leading Newspapers*)
The topics for which
Facebook & Twitter are most commonly
sourced [in newspaper articles] are
similar across all countries –
among them are soft news topics as
well as hard news topics such as
domestic & international politics,
breaking-news events or reporting
on movements, the last of which
highlights the relative advantages of
social media as a
source for journalists.
Gerret von Nordheim et al. – Sourcing the Sources, 6/18
Source: Sourcing the Sources – Bournemouth University. *An analysis of the use of Twitter & Facebook as a journalistic source over 10 years in The New York Times, The Guardian,
& Süddeutsche Zeitung (leading newspapers in USA / UK / Germany). Analysis conducted by collecting articles from 2006-2016 across all 3 newspapers & running natural language
processing models on the text to identify articles that mention Facebook or Twitter as sources
%
Articles
Citing
Facebook
/
Twitter
178
Internet Trends
2019
Social Media =
Can Amplify Bad Behavior
I Have Experienced _____ Online
Source: Pew Research (9/18). Note: survey = 731 respondents age 13-17 interviewed between 3/7/18 & 4/10/18
42% = Offensive Name-Calling
32% = Spreading of False Rumors
16% = Physical Threats
Pew Survey (USA Teens)
179
Internet Trends
2019
Motivated Bad Actors =
Can Amplify Ideologies
The main terrorist problem in the
United States today is one of individuals
radicalized by a diverse array of
ideologies absorbed from the Internet.
Peter Bergen & David Sterman – The Real Terrorist Threat in America - Foreign Affairs, 10/18
180
Internet Trends
2019
Unintended Bad Actors =
Can Amplify Misinformation
The Internet plays a role in fostering distinct & polarized
online communities among conspiracy theory believers...
Believers share their opinions & ‘evidence’
with other believers but are less willing to
share with people who are critical
of conspiracy theories –
with the Internet, conspiracy groups
become more homogeneous & their
beliefs become stronger over time.
Karen Douglas – Professor of Social Psychology, The University of Kent Writing for The Conversation, 6/18
181
Internet Trends
2019
Polarization has been abetted by many factors. Americans are sorting themselves out
geographically, living in increasingly politically homogeneous neighborhoods.
Social media & the proliferation of media channels via the Internet & TV has played
a role, allowing people to communicate exclusively with people like themselves.
Identity & the growth of identity politics have also played a role – People have gravitated
toward groups that feel they are in a zero-sum competition against one another.
Francis Fukuyama – Stanford University, Professor of Political Science, 12/18
Extreme Views =
Can Amplify Polarization
Distribution of Democrats & Republicans
On 10-item Scale of Political Values, per Pew Research, USA
Note: Ideological consistency based on a scale of 10 political values questions (see methodology).The blue area in this chart represents the
ideological distribution of Democrats & Democratic-leaning independents; the red area of Republicans & Republican-leaning independents. The
overlap of these two distributions is shaded purple. Source: Pew Surveys conducted 1994-2017. Stanford release.
Pew Survey (USA)
182
Internet Trends
2019
Internet Platforms =
Driving Efforts to Reduce Problematic Content
0%
40%
80%
0
5MM
10MM
Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
Facebook
0%
40%
80%
0
45MM
90MM
Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19
YouTube
Pieces
of
Content
Removed,
Excluding
Spam
(Blue
Bar)
%
Hate
Speech
Removed
Before
User
Reporting
(Red
Line
)
Content Items Removed vs.
% Hate Speech Identified / Removed Before User Report
Videos
Removed
Owing
To
Community
Guideline
Violations
Videos Removed for Community Guideline Violations vs.
Share Flagged / Removed Before First View
%
Videos
Removed
Before
First
View
(Red
Line
)
Source: Facebook Community Standards Enforcement Report (5/19). Pieces of content include posts, photos, videos or comments that were taken down due to violation of
community guidelines. Taking action could include removing a piece of content from Facebook, covering photos or videos that may be disturbing to some audiences with a
warning, or disabling accounts. Spam not included due to the scale (Billions of pieces of content removed quarterly. YouTube Community Guidelines enforcement Report (5/19).
YouTube Community Guideline Violations can include sexual content, graphic / violent content, harassment, etc.
183
Internet Trends
2019
Consumers + Businesses =
Driving Efforts to Moderate Problematic Content
0
100
200
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Global Independent Fact-Checking Organizations
The number of media outlets focused
on fact-checking & political
accountability reporting has grown
rapidly. Bolstered by new partnerships
& technology, more fact-checking took
place during the 2016 election
than in previous elections.
Media organizations including NPR
& The Washington Post report
record-breaking readership
of their fact-checking work.
Alan Greenblatt – The American Press Institute, 4/17
Source: Duke Reporter’s Lab Research (8/18). The Future of Fact-Checking: Moving Ahead in Political
Accountability Journalism, published by the American Press Institute (4/17)
Independent
Fact
Checking
Organizations,
Global
184
Internet Trends
2019
The Department of Homeland Security has engaged with major
social media companies to encourage them to continue to police their websites…
We do see that those efforts are bearing some fruit –
I think we have a long way to go & we look forward to continue
to engage with social media companies in that environment.
Brian Murphy – Principal Deputy Undersecretary, Department of Homeland Security, Testimony to USA Congress, 5/19
We can definitely continue to improve how we manage the YouTube platform…
I see how much improvement we've already made…If you look back 2 years,
there were a lot of articles about how we handled violent extremism…
if you talk to experts in this field today, you can see we've made tremendous progress.
We are an information company - we committed last year to having >10,000 people moderating content…
I see how much progress we've already made. We just made changes to our
recommendation algorithms for borderline content & we've announced we've seen a
50% reduction in the views coming from recommendations on that content.
If you combine much better policies with technology to do that at scale,
I think you can be at a much better place.
Susan Wojcicki – CEO, YouTube, Interview @ Code Conference, 6/19
185
Internet Trends
2019
Perception of Internet (USA) =
Largely Positive for Individuals + Society
When You Add Up Internet Advantages & Disadvantages of
The Internet, It Has Been _____ for Me / Society
70%
88%
76%
90%
0%
50%
100%
Share
of
Respondents
For Me =
Mostly Good
For Society =
Mostly Good
Source: Pew Research. Poll of 1,785 USA Internet users from 1/3/18-1/10/18 & 2015, released on 4/30/18.
2014 2018
Pew Survey (USA)
186
Internet Trends
2019
Age-Old Challenge of
Amplifying Good + Minimizing Bad =
Taking Rapid Twists & Turns
187
Internet Trends
2019
Global Relationships
Related to
Information + Data =
Evolving Differently / Rapidly
188
Internet Trends
2019
We need a new generation of laws
to govern a new generation of tech.
Brad Smith – President & Chief Legal Officer, Microsoft, 2/18
There’s a paradigm shift going on…
Governments are moving from a position of
non-interference to a realization that
if we want to keep a cross-border Internet going,
then we [need] a new system of governance.
Paul Fehlinger – Co-Founder, Internet & Jurisdiction Policy Network, 2/18
Note: ‘Splinternet’ originated by Clyde Wayne Crews Jr. writing for the Cato Institute in 2001.
In a sense, the World Wide Web as we know it is over…
in its place is something altogether different:
a Balkanized ‘splinternet’…where your experience
online is determined by local regulation.
Mark Scott – Chief Technology Correspondent, Politico, 12/17 & 2/18
189
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet Freedom…
Partly-Free = Rising…Free / Not-Free = Falling
24%
29%
35%
20%
33%
34%
0%
20%
40%
Free Partly-Free Not-Free
2016 2018
Internet Population ‘Internet Freedom Status’
Share
of
Population,
Global
(%)
Source: Freedom on The Net Reports 2016 + 2018. Note: Freedom on the Net measures the level of Internet & digital media freedom in 65 countries. Each country receives a numerical score from 0 (the most free) to 100
(the least free), which serves as the basis for an Internet freedom status designation of FREE (0-30 points), PARTLY FREE (31-60 points), or NOT FREE (61-100 points). Ratings are determined through an examination of
three broad categories – Access (Assesses infrastructural & economic barriers to access). Content Limits (Examines filtering & blocking of websites) & User Rights (Measures legal protections & restrictions on online
activity; surveillance; privacy; & repercussions for online activity, such as legal prosecution, imprisonment, physical attacks, or other forms of harassment. Scores do not add to 100 owing to non-analyzed countries.
55%
Political, social, or religious content
is censored / blocked
47%
Government Internet surveillance
powers have increased over past year
47%
Access to certain social media /
messaging platforms have been blocked
42%
Government has disconnected Internet /
mobile networks often for political reasons
Internet Users Live in a Country Where ______
Freedom House – Freedom on the Net (Global, 2018)
190
Internet Trends
2019
Global Internet Freedom Framework (Freedom House)
Freedom House Freedom on The Net Index
Measures a country’s level of Internet / digital media freedom, using questions
derived from Article 19 of UN’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights:
Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion & expression; this right
includes freedom to hold opinions without interference & to seek, receive &
impart information & ideas through any media regardless of frontiers.
Countries are given points for: 1) Obstacles to Access; 2) Limits on Content; 3) Violations of User Rights
Free
Countries with low economic / infrastructural / regulatory barriers to Internet access…
minimal blocking / filtering of content / information…strong privacy protections
Partly-Free
Countries with some barriers to Internet access (like state-owned providers handicapping competition)…
some blocking of content / information (like news sites or temporary blocks on social media)…
some privacy violations (like data collection requirements with weak judicial oversight)
Not-Free
Countries with strong barriers to Internet access (like cutting off the internet to certain regions)
…strong blocking of content (news sites, opposition figures, permanent blocks on social media)…
rampant privacy violations (like data localization requirements with low judicial independence, unchecked surveillance)
Source: Freedom House’s Freedom on The Net Reports 2016-2018. Note: Freedom on the Net is a collaborative effort between a small team of Freedom House staff & an
extensive network of local researchers & advisors in 65 countries. Freedom on the Net’s in-country researchers have diverse backgrounds—academia, blogging, traditional
journalism, & tech— & track developments from their country of expertise. In the most repressive environments, Freedom House takes care to ensure researchers’
anonymity or, in exceptional cases, works with foreign nationals living outside their home country.
191
Internet Trends
2019
World Wide Web =
Webs of Worlds Driven by Local Regulation…
Internet Regulation
Low High
USA India China
• Diverse regulatory
bodies with varied /
distinct powers
• Privately-owned
telecom infrastructure
accessible to nearly all
residents
Internet
Access
Content
Regulation
User
Regulation
• Virtually no content
filtering & strong free
speech protections
• No political censorship,
strong protection for
hosts of user-generated
content
• Some legal privacy
protections related to
government collection
of user data
• Limited regulation on
encryption / secure
communication
• Diverse regulatory
bodies, many with power
to regulate access
• Government initiative to
increase Internet access
& usage as a
‘public good’
• Event-driven content
filtering often without
direct public input with
some speech protection
• Some censorship,
generally to remove
‘insulting content’
7 Largest EU
Economies*
• Diverse regulatory
bodies with varied /
distinct powers
• Privately-owned
telecom infrastructure
accessible to nearly all
residents
• Limited content
filtering & free speech
protections
• Limited political
censorship, some
liability for hosts of
user-generated content
• Some legal privacy
protections related to
government collection of
user data
• Required government
approval for encryption /
secure communication
• Strong legal privacy
protections related to
any collection of user
data
• Limited regulation on
encryption / secure
communication
Note: *Based on analysis of Germany / UK / France / Italy / Spain / The Netherlands / Sweden – 7 largest economies in The European Union, representing >70% of The EU GDP in 2018 & a majority
of votes in the EU Parliament…Individual policies vary across The EU, in particular, some eastern European Union countries (e.g., Hungary) significantly limit Internet freedom in stark contrast to
more open EU nations. Analysis also takes into account EU-wide directives, such as GDPR. Source: Adapted from Freedom House 2018 Freedom on the Net Report. Global Internet User % as of
2018 per CIA World Factbook, United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Internet user data is as of mid-year. Internet user data: Pew Research (USA), China
Internet Network Information Center (China), estimates based on IAMAI data (India).
Global Internet User % 8% 12% 21%
8%*
Limited Regulation Moderate Regulation Strong Regulation
Legend
• Central government
bodies with strong
regulatory power
• High government
ownership / control of
network infrastructure with
ability to regulate access
• Strong content regulation
& no expectation of
speech protection
• Regulation to ‘create a
more harmonious
digital society’
• Ability to collect user
data for regulatory
purposes
• Required government
approval for encryption /
secure communication
192
Internet Trends
2019
…World Wide Web =
Webs of Worlds Driven by Local Regulation
When a service provider sends an authentication request to
Aadhaar (India’s National Identity System), the purpose of the
authentication is not revealed; all the government knows is when
someone uses his Aadhaar number, not where or why.
[Aadahaar shows] India’s approach to the Internet
is simple – empower users with the technical &
legal tools required to take back control of their data.
Nandan Nilekani – Founding Chair of Unique Identification Authority of India
The GDPR has…created a blueprint that other states &
organizations will study closely as they, too, seek to properly
balance individuals’ rights to data protection with their other
rights & with the legitimate interests of business & government.
The law’s main innovation is to establish a bedrock principle of
accountability. It places responsibility for properly collecting &
processing personal data squarely on organizations &
extends to individuals the right to prevent their data from
being collected or processed. The GDPR also gives
individuals the right to insist that their data be deleted.
Helen Dixon – Data Protection Commissioner, Ireland
In 1997, USA negotiated an agreement through the World Trade
Organization that committed 67 signatory countries to
‘procompetitive regulatory telecommunications principles’…
As the Internet grew more centralized & as its role expanded,
policymakers failed to keep up. When it came to updating
regulations for online activities…the Internet was treated as a
special realm that did not need regulation & the bad guys took notice.
Karen Kornbluh – Senior Fellow for Digital Policy, Council on Foreign Relations
USA European Union
India
Global Internet Regulatory Observations per Foreign Affairs (9/18)
Source: ’World War Web,’ Foreign Affairs, September / October Edition 2018
Chinese leaders want to ensure a harmonious Internet – one that
guides public opinion, supports good governance & fosters
economic growth but also is tightly controlled…
China has promoted ‘cyber-sovereignty’ as an organizing
principle of Internet governance…China envisions
a world of national Internets, with government control
justified by the sovereign rights of states.
Adam Segal – Chair, Emerging Technologies & National Security, Council on Foreign Relations
China
193
Internet Trends
2019
Open Internet =
Can Benefit All Constituents
194
Internet Trends
2019
Consumers
Want to Get What They Want Efficiently & Inexpensively
Businesses
Want to Sell Products & Services Profitably
Regulators
Want to Protect Consumers / Businesses / Social Institutions
Open Internet =
Core Constituent Motivations
195
Internet Trends
2019
Open Internet =
Online Reviews Can Boost Multi-Sided Accountability…
25%
30%
33%
46%
45%
41%
0% 25% 50%
Make Consumers Feel Confident About Purchases
Make Companies Accountable to Consumers
Ensure Safety of Products / Services
Consumer Reviews Government Oversight
Make Consumers Feel
Confident About Purchases
Make Companies
Accountable to Consumers
Ensure Safety of
Products & Services
Do Online Consumer Reviews / Government
Oversight Help ‘A Lot’ to _________
Source: Pew Research Survey (12/15). N = 4,787 USA Consumers.
Pew Survey (USA)
196
Internet Trends
2019
0
45MM
90MM
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total
Host
Account
&
Booking
Guest
Reviews
Airbnb
Total Host / Guest Reviews on Airbnb
Safety is our number one principle at
Airbnb, the whole thing only works if
you feel safe – we have a few hundred
people on our Trust & Safety Team
who really work with the
Airbnb community to facilitate that.
70% of guests – when they stay on
Airbnb – leave a review, which
means we’ve built a system that
allows the community to review
properties on Airbnb & build trust.
Brian Chesky – CEO, Airbnb, 4/19
Source: Total host / guest reviews per Airbnb (6/19). Each booked trip taken on Airbnb can have 0-2 reviews depending on if the host account and/or booking guest writes a review.
Brian Chesky quote per interview on CBS News (4/19)
…Open Internet =
Online Reviews Can Boost Multi-Sided Accountability
197
Internet Trends
2019
Reveals / Actions / Reactions
Amplified on Internet =
Can Drive Transparency + Rapid Change for
Consumers / Businesses / Regulators
198
Internet Trends
2019
Reveal / Action / Reaction…
Twitter = Communication Tool for Citizens…
Humanitarian Concerns
JJ Watt Hurricane
Harvey Relief
Blood
Donors India
Emergency
Rescue
$42MM Raised…
1 Year
(2017)
…11K Donations…
1 Year
(2017)
…Accident -> Safety
<3 Hours
(2010)
Source: Twitter (7/10-8/17)
199
Internet Trends
2019
…Reveal / Action / Reaction…
Twitter = Communication Tool for Consumers + Businesses
Consumer / Business Concerns
Glossier Under Armour
…New Packaging…
<1 Day
(2019)
…New Steph Curry Shoe Sizes
<1 Week
(2018)
Source: Twitter (4/18-4/19) Note: Under Armour included ‘Curry 5’ shoes in the ‘Girl’s Shoes’ section of their website & updated sizing nomenclature to “Grade School” rather than ‘Boys.’
Starbucks
Starbucks Security Policy…
<2 Days
(2018)
200
Internet Trends
2019
Reveal / Action / Reaction…
Social Media = Communication Tool for Citizens + Regulators
Social Media is Important For _________
Source: Pew Survey of 4,594 USA adults (6/18). Note: Percentages = respondents who responded ‘very important’ or ‘somewhat important’
69%
Getting Government Officials to Pay Attention to Issues
67%
Creating Sustained Movements for Social Change
58%
Influencing Government Policy Decisions
Pew Survey (USA)
201
Internet Trends
2019
Open Internet =
Can Be Messy, But Effective…
Consumer / Business / Regulators =
Key to Work Together to
Amplify Good + Minimize Bad
202
Internet Trends
2019
During the first two-decades of the Internet’s growth,
too much faith was put in the technology itself.
Not enough was done to address challenges
such as the spread of surveillance technologies,
abuse of online platforms & the general undermining of trust.
…[governments] should work to establish better baselines &
metrics to assess the Internet’s true impact, as well as the
kinds of actions that enable the good & mitigate the bad.
Advocates for the open Internet should acknowledge that regulation
can help, while remaining vigilant to unintended consequences.
…all of these stakeholders should continue to forge coalitions
that work across borders in support of flexible, focused &
rights-compliant efforts to improve freedom online.
Jason Pielemeier – Policy Director, The Global Network Initiative, Council on Foreign Relations Blog, 7/18
203
Internet Trends
2019
1) Transparency
2) Explanation
3) Consent
4) Freedom from Bias
5) Feedback Mechanisms
6) Data Portability
7) Redress
8) Algorithmic Literacy
9) Independent Oversight
10) Federal / Global Governance
Crowdsourced Algorithmic Bill of Rights, per Sigal Samuel @ Vox
Source: In early 2019, Vox reached out to 10 experts (including Kartik Hosanagar – original proposer of an Algorithmic Bill of Rights) at the
forefront of investigating how Artificial Intelligence risk is creeping into multiple aspects of life. Vox reporter Sigal Samuel asked them each to
name a protection the public needs enshrined in law, resulting in a crowdsourced, proposed Algorithmic Bill of Rights.
Full detail available - https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/5/22/18273284/ai-algorithmic-bill-of-rights-accountability-transparency-consent-bias
First Step in Long Journey =
An Algorithmic Bill of Rights?
204
Internet Trends
2019
Highly Regulated Internet =
Can Favor State Control
205
Internet Trends
2019
I urge improving the governance capacity in cyberspace & developing
a governing network led by the [Communist Party of China].
Internet media should spread positive information, uphold the correct
political direction & guide public opinion & values towards the right direction.
Internet service providers should take responsibility to prevent cyberspace
from degrading into a platform full of harmful, false & provocative information.
Xi Jinping – President of The People’s Republic of China, As Translated by Xinhua, 4/2018
Source: USA Supreme Court (6/17). As translated to English by official China State media (Xinhua, 4/18)
A fundamental First Amendment principle is that all persons have access to places
where they can speak & listen & then, after reflection, speak & listen once more.
Today, one of the most important places to exchange views is cyberspace, particularly social
media, which offers relatively unlimited, low-cost capacity for communication of all kinds.
Anthony Kennedy – Former USA Supreme Court Justice – Majority Opinion, Packingham v. North Carolina, 6/2017
If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood & fallacies,
to avert the evil by the processes of education,
the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence.
Louis Brandeis – Former USA Supreme Court Justice – Concurring Opinion, Whitney v. California, 5/1927
206
Internet Trends
2019
Cyber Attacks =
Sophistication + Scope Continue to Rise
207
Internet Trends
2019
1) State-Sponsored Actor Attacks = Rising
USA / UK / The Netherlands / Germany Have Publicly Indicted State-Actors
2) Large-Scale Data Provider Attacks = Rising
Cloud Providers / Telecoms / Data Brokers Seeing Elevated Attack Activity
3) Monetary Extortion Cases = Rising
Non-Attributable Currencies (e.g., Crypto) Enabling Anonymous Ransom Payments
4) Attack-to-Detection Dwell Time = Continues To Fall
Average Days = 78 (2018)…101 (2017)…416 (2011)
Cyber Attacks =
Evolving Sponsors / Targets / Asks / Detection
Source: FireEye M-Trends Report 2019
208
Internet Trends
2019
Cyber Attacks =
Opportunities Created by Online System Weaknesses
25%
31%
0%
20%
40%
2017 2018
Data Center Operators –
Downtime Experienced in Past Year
per Uptime Institute
Share
of
Respondents
(%)
Source: Uptime Institute 2018 Report. FireEye Note: Uptime Institute is a professional services organization best known for its data center tier standards for data
center uptime. Each year, it conducts a survey of 900 data center operators on a variety of topics, including data center outages.
A financial services firm engaged a Mandiant Red
Team to evaluate the effectiveness of its information
security team’s detection, prevention & response
capabilities. The team was able to obtain full
administrative control of the company domain &
compromise all critical business applications without
any software or operating system exploits.
Instead, the team focused on identifying
system misconfigurations, conducting social
engineering attacks & using the client’s
internal tools & documentation.
FireEye Threat Research, 4/19
209
Internet Trends
2019
2-Factor Authentication =
Incomplete Adoption Limits Effectiveness
54%
52%
0%
30%
60%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% Sites Supporting 2-Factor Authentication, Global*
Source: Elie Bursztein (Security & Anti-Abuse Lead @ Google). analysis of dongleauth.info database data (12/18). FireEye (4/19)
Security experts have seen a significant uptick in the
number of clients securing their VPN or remote access
infrastructure with multi-factor authentication.
However, there is frequently a lack of multi-factor
authentication for applications being accessed
from within the internal corporate network.
FireEye Threat Research, 4/19
210
Internet Trends
2019
Cyber Attacks =
Increasingly Focused on Sensitive Data
178MM
37MM
198MM
447MM
0
250MM
500MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Identity Theft Resource Center (2014-2018). MalwareBytes 2019 State of Malware Report. Note: Trojan malware = malware specifically designed to evade detection by security software.
Observed volume calculated as an average of monthly observations for a quarter. A sensitive record defined as personal information that could be used to commit a crime against a victim exposed
due to an online security breach (e.g., bank credentials being accessed illicitly). Variation in number of records often driven by large individual breaches. In 2015, Anthem Health revealed 78MM
personal records via breach. In 2017 Equifax exposed ~150MM personal records via breach. In 2018, Marriott International exposed ~383MM records via breach.
Sensitive Records Exposed in Security Breaches
Annual
Records
Exposed
in
Security
Breaches,
Global
As more & more customers move to
software as a service & cloud,
attackers are following data.
Attacks against cloud providers,
telecoms & other organizations
with access to large
amounts of data…
increased in 2018.
FireEye M-Trends Report 2018
211
Internet Trends
2019
States are using the tools of cyberwarfare
to undermine the very foundation of the Internet: trust.
They are hacking into banks, meddling in elections, stealing
intellectual property & bringing private companies to a standstill.
The result is that an arena that the world relies on for
economic & informational exchange has turned into an active battlefield.
Cyber-operations are emblematic of a new style of competition…
In operation after operation, many of them hardly registered
by the wider world, states are weaponizing the Internet.
All these incidents occurred in a gray zone of conflict –
below the threshold of outright war
but above that of purely peacetime behavior.
Michèle Flournoy & Michael Sulmeyer – Co-Founders, WestExec Advisors, Foreign Affairs, 9/18
Cyber Attacks =
Effects Amplified by State Sponsorship
212
Internet Trends
2019
WORK =
STRONG ECONOMIC INDICATORS…
INTERNET-ENABLED SERVICES / JOBS HELPING
213
Internet Trends
2019
Global Relative GDP (Current $) =
China + USA + India Rising…Europe Falling
Global GDP Contribution (Current $)
Source: World Bank (GDP in current $). Other countries account for ~30% of global GDP.
0%
20%
40%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%
of
Global
GDP
USA Europe China India Latin America
26%
22%
4%
15%
40%
25%
3%
7%
3%
6%
2017
214
Internet Trends
2019
Cross-Border Trade = 29% of Global GDP…
Foundational to Global Economy
0%
20%
40%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trade as % of Global GDP
%
of
Global
GDP
2017
Source: World Bank. Note: ‘World Trade’ refers to the average of Imports & Exports (to account for goods in-transit between years) for all nations.
215
Internet Trends
2019
Global Relative Unemployment Concern = High…
USA = Low…
Are unemployment & jobs among top three worries for your home country?
Ipsos / Reuters Surveys
%
Respondents
Answering
Positively
Source: Ipsos Survey Data of ~20K global respondents. Ipsos conducts this survey on a monthly basis, asking the same questions of a statistically representative sample of >1K
people in 28 representative countries. February 2017 included owing to lack of published March 2017 report. World average reflects average of Germany, Israel, UK, USA, Belgium,
Japan, Poland, Sweden, China, Hungary, Peru, Turkey, India, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, France, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Italy & Spain.
38%
24%
34%
17%
33%
11%
0%
20%
40%
2/17 3/18 3/19 2/17 3/18 3/19
World Average USA
216
Internet Trends
2019
…Global Relative Unemployment Concern…
USA = Materially Below Other Countries…
Source: Ipsos Survey Data of ~20K global respondents. Ipsos conducts this survey on a monthly basis, asking the same questions of a statistically representative
sample of >1K people in USA & other countries. Note: Percentages do not add to 100% because respondents were allowed to pick 3 choices. . .’
Rank Country Share
1 Italy 69%
2 South Korea 66%
3 Spain 61%
4 South Africa 57%
5 Argentina 49%
6 India 44%
7 Turkey 44%
8 Mexico 38%
9 Brazil 35%
10 Saudi Arabia 34%
11 Russia 33%
12 France 32%
13 Australia 30%
Are unemployment & jobs among top three worries for your home country?
Ipsos / Reuters Survey (3/19)
Rank Country Share
14 China 29%
15 Canada 27%
16 Belgium 24%
17 Peru 22%
18 Japan 19%
19 Israel 18%
20 Hungary 17%
21 Sweden 15%
22 Poland 15%
23 UK 14%
24 Germany 11%
25 USA 11%
217
Internet Trends
2019
…USA Relative Unemployment Concern =
Low & Falling
Rank Concern Share
1 Healthcare 39%
2 Financial/Political Corruption 28%
3 Immigration 28%
4 Moral Decline 26%
5 Crime & Violence 22%
6 Poverty & Social Inequality 21%
7 Climate Change 21%
8 Extremism 19%
9 Terrorism 18%
10 Education 15%
11 Taxes 15%
12 Unemployment & Jobs 11%
13 Environmental Threats 10%
14 Inflation 6%
15 Maintaining Social Programs 6%
16 Childhood Obesity 4%
17 Access To Credit 0%
Rank Concern Share
1 Crime & Violence 35%
2 Healthcare 33%
3 Terrorism 29%
4 Financial/Political Corruption 23%
5 Immigration 23%
6 Moral Decline 23%
7 Poverty & Social Inequality 19%
8 Unemployment & Jobs 17%
9 Extremism 15%
10 Education 15%
11 Taxes 14%
12 Climate Change 12%
13 Environmental Threats 10%
14 Inflation 7%
15 Maintaining Social Programs 5%
16 Childhood Obesity 2%
17 Access To Credit 2%
Rank Concern Share
1 Healthcare 36%
2 Crime & Violence 33%
3 Terrorism 31%
4 Unemployment & Jobs 24%
5 Financial/Political Corruption 22%
6 Immigration 21%
7 Moral Decline 20%
8 Poverty & Social Inequality 19%
9 Taxes 17%
10 Education 16%
11 Climate Change 13%
12 Extremism 12%
13 Environmental Threats 9%
14 Maintaining Social Programs 7%
15 Inflation 6%
16 Childhood Obesity 3%
17 Access To Credit 2%
Which of following are top three worries for your home country (USA)?
Ipsos / Reuters Surveys
February 2017 March 2018 March 2019
Source: Ipsos Survey Data of ~20K global respondents. Ipsos conducts this survey on a monthly basis, asking the same questions of a statistically representative sample of >1K
people in USA. Note: Percentages do not add to 100% because respondents were allowed to pick 3 choices.
218
Internet Trends
2019
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database. Note: Indexed to Q1:66 = 100. Consumer Confidence Index (Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index) is a
broad measure of American consumer sentiment, as measured through a 50-question telephone survey of at least 500 USA residents each month.
0
60
120
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
CCI
(Indexed
to
1966),
USA
Consumer Confidence Index (USA) = High & Rising…
@ 97 vs. 88 Sixty-Five Year Average
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
88 =
65-Year Average
219
Internet Trends
2019
Economy / Employment (USA) = Unemployment @ 19 Year Low…
Job Openings @ All-Time High…Wages Rising
0%
15%
30%
$0
$12T
$24T
1928 1958 1988 2018
Unemployment
Rate
Real
GDP
Real GDP vs.
Unemployment Rate, USA
0
5MM
10MM
2000 2006 2012 2018
Job
Openings*
Job Openings, USA
$320
$340
$360
2000 2006 2012 2018
Median Real Weekly Earnings,
All Workers Over 16, USA
Civilian Unemployment
Real GDP
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database, Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS. Note: Real GDP based on chained 2012 dollars. Unemployment rate = annual average. *A job opening
is defined as a non-farm specific position of employment to be filled at an establishment. Conditions include the following: there is work available for that position, the job could start within 30
days & the employer is actively recruiting for the position. Wages refers to usual weekly earnings of wage & salary workers. Usual weekly earnings represent earnings before taxes & other
deductions & include any overtime pay, commissions, or tips usually received (at the main job in the case of multiple jobholders). Usual definition per discretion of interviewee.
Median
Usual
Weekly
Wage
220
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Work =
Creating Internet-Enabled
Opportunities + Efficiencies
221
Internet Trends
2019
Small Business Enabling Payment Processors =
Strong Growth
Stripe Connect – Marketplace Volume Impact*
Per Forrester
Source: Square SEC filings. Forrester Total Economic Impact Survey on Stripe Connect (Stripe’s Marketplace Product) (7/18). Note: A Total Economic Impact Study is a framework to identify the cost, benefit, flexibility &
risk factors for an investment decision. Forrester took a multistep approach to evaluate the impact that Stripe Connect can have on an organization, including stakeholder interviews, customer interviews, the development of a
composite organization based on the characteristics of interviewed Stripe customers & a financial model that incorporates the effects / risks of Stripe Connect, as identified by Stripe’s customers. Based on interview feedback,
Forrester determined that a composite organizations would likely have $475MM in annual transaction volume prior to using Stripe Connect & that Stripe Connect’s features (e.g., improved seller settlement) would result in
increased volume of $47.7MM in Year 1, $66.1MM in Year 2 & $90.6MM in Year 3.
+6.7%
$0
$50B
$100B
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Square Gross Payment Volume, Global
Square
Gross
Payment
Volume
100%
110%
120%
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
222
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Services =
Growing Rapidly…Benefitting Local Merchants
~5% of [USA] restaurant business’s $800B in annual sales is delivered –
we’re still in the very early innings of
the development of on-demand delivery & services.
We started DoorDash to help local businesses…
‘local’ has long been the promise of E-Commerce but no one has found a way
to help local merchants thrive online – that is the space we focus on.
We do this by enabling local merchants to participate in selling convenience.
There are a lot of merchants who are ready to make the transition from selling
experiences to also selling convenience, which can often reduce their costs.
I think this is the biggest business model change in commerce.
Tony Xu – Founder / CEO, DoorDash, 6/19
223
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Consumers =
56MM + ~2x in Two Years
On-Demand Consumers, USA
Source: National Technology Readiness Survey (4/18). Note: authored by Rockbridge Associates, Inc. & A. Parasuraman & is co-
sponsored by the Center for Excellence in Service, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. The study is
conducted online among a representative sample of consumers in a national panel & represents the views of U.S. adults ages 18 &
older. The sample size was 1,032 in 2016 & 1,004 in 2017. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. 2018 figures are estimates.
On-Demand Products / Services –
Consumer Spend, 2017, USA
25MM
56MM
0
30MM
60MM
2016 2017 2018
On-Demand
Consumers
$0 $15B $30B
Other
Health & Beauty
Food Delivery
Housing
Transportation
Online Marketplaces
Consumer Spend, 2017, USA
224
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Workers =
~7MM +22% Y/Y
On-Demand Platform Workers, USA
Source: Emergent Research (2015-2018) + Intuit (2017). Note: On-demand workers defined as online marketplace workers including transportation and/or
logistics for people or products, online talent marketplaces, renting out space. Providing other miscellaneous consumer & business services (e.g. TaskRabbit,
Gigwalk, Wonolo, etc.). Workers defined as ‘active’ employees that have done ’significant’ on-demand work within the preceding 6 months.
2.4MM
3.9MM
5.4MM
6.6MM
0
4MM
8MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
On-Demand
Workers
225
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Workers =
>20MM Applicants on Checkr Platform Since 2015, USA
Source: Checkr (2019)
0
5MM
10MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
As the on-demand economy continues to
evolve & transform the world around us,
we're seeing a rapid increase in new &
supplemental job creation.
Increasingly, this type of work has
become a key driver of economic growth.
Checkr has a front row seat in the on-demand
economy, not only to watch the changes unfold,
but also to provide solutions that shape &
strengthen it. Our technology is designed to
give employers the information they need to
make informed decisions about their candidates,
while helping them scale & grow their business.
Daniel Yanisse – Co-Founder / CEO, Checkr, 6/19
Checkr On-Demand Platform Applicants, USA
Annual
Checkr
Applicants,
USA
226
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Work =
Creating Internet-Enabled Benefits
On-Demand Work – Motivations, USA
14%
18%
22%
24%
27%
29%
47%
0% 25% 50%
Take Care of Parents
Want to Work with Others
Additional Income
Flexible Work Hours
Previously Underemployed
Learn New Skills
Previously Unemployed
% of Respondents
Source: Wonolo (7/18). N = 1,400 survey respondents
227
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Platforms =
Big Numbers + High Growth
Real-Time
Platforms
Internet-Enabled
Marketplaces
0
3MM
6MM
$0
$30B
$60B
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Driver-Partners,
Global
Gross
Bookings,
Global
Gross Bookings Driver-Partners
Uber @ 4MM Driver-Partners
0
0.7MM
1.4MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lifetime
Dashers,
Global
Lifetime Dashers
DoorDash @ 1.3MM Dashers
0
125K
250K
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Onboarded
Workers,
Global
Onboarded Workers
Wonolo @ 230K Workers
0
2MM
4MM
$0
$2B
$4B
2012 2014 2016 2018
Sellers,
Global
Gross
Merchandise
Sales
(GMS),
Global
GMS Sellers
Etsy @ 2MM Sellers
0
3MM
6MM
0
125MM
250MM
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Active
Listings,
Global
Guest
Arrivals,
Global
Guest Arrivals Active Listings
Airbnb @ 6MM Listings
Uber Source: Uber DoorDash Source: DoorDash. Note: Lifetime Dashers defined as the total number of people that have dashed on the platform through the end of each
year. 2019 figures are as of 5/19. Etsy Source: Etsy. Airbnb Source: Airbnb, Note: Airbnb 2017 & 2018 Guest arrivals based on estimates from total guest arrivals disclosures
in 2018 & 2019. 500MM guest arrivals have occurred via Airbnb as of 2019. VIPKid Source: Company Press Releases (3/19). Wonolo Source: Wonolo.
VIPKid @ 70K Teachers
0
450K
900K
2017 2018 2019
0
55K
110K
Teachers Students
Students,
Global
Teachers,
Global
228
Internet Trends
2019
Remote Work =
Creating Internet-Enabled Work
Opportunities + Efficiencies
229
Internet Trends
2019
Remote Workers = Rising…
~5% of Americans vs. ~3% in 2000
3%
5%
0%
3%
6%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% Total – Remote Workers
Source: USA census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) (2000-2017). Note: The US Census releases the ACS survey results in
September for the previous year. ACS = Survey of ~3.5MM Americans over the course of a year.
%
Workers
Working
Remotely,
USA
230
Internet Trends
2019
Remote Workers =
Enabled by Online Collaboration Tools
At Zapier, we’ve found that by using a stack of
collaboration tools that work well together,
our 100% remote team is able to work more
efficiently, regardless of where they’re located.
It’s important for us to have the ability to
instantly access a folder, collaborate on a
shared document, or chat in real time.
With well-connected tools & processes,
any remote employee can feel more focused,
productive & in control of their time.
Wade Foster – Co-Founder / CEO, Zapier, 6/19
Remote Workforce (Zapier)
1) Slack
2) Google Sheets
3) Airtable
4) Help Scout
+42%
+59%
+37%
+101%
Highest-Use Apps on Zapier
By Remote Teams
Y/Y Growth
1/18-1/19
Source: Zapier (6/19). Note Y/Y growth refers to growth in engagement with productivity tools from
January 2018 to January 2019 specifically at remote teams who use Zapier for automation.
231
Internet Trends
2019
Remote Work =
Creating Internet-Enabled Benefits
Remote Work – Benefits
3%
13%
14%
30%
47%
0% 25% 50%
Other
Able to Work from Home
More Time with Family
Ability to Travel
Flexible Work Hours
% of Respondents
Source: Buffer in partnership with Doist, Hubstaff, Remote-How, RemoteYear, Trello, Workfrom &
We Work Remotely, State of Remote Work 2019. N = 2,471 respondents globally.
232
Internet Trends
2019
Zoom by Day…Fortnite by Night?
Work (via Zoom)… …Play (via Fortnite)
Source: Canva (Pixabay). Nintendo.
233
Internet Trends
2019
ONLINE EDUCATION =
BIG NUMBERS + BIG GROWTH
234
Internet Trends
2019
Education Costs (USA)
235
Internet Trends
2019
Education Costs =
Rising
Annual
Undergraduate
Tuition
&
Fees,
USA
Undergraduate Tuition & Fees
0
$20K
$40K
1973 1982 1991 2000 2009 2018
Source: Tuition & Fees = College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment data. Average tuition & fee prices reflect in-district charges for public two-year
institutions & in-state charges for public four-year institutions. All figures in 2018 dollars. Debt = College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment data.
Average tuition & fee prices reflect in-district charges for public two-year institutions & in-state charges for public four-year institutions. All figures in 2018 dollars.
Private Non-Profit 4-Year Public 4-Year
Student Loan Debt
0
$1T
$2T
2003 2008 2013 2018
Student
Loan
Debt,
USA
236
Internet Trends
2019
Post-Secondary Education Enrollment (USA)
237
Internet Trends
2019
Offline Education Enrollment =
Slowing
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (3/18). 2017-2018 are estimates supplied by Chegg. *Note: Decline in Post-Secondary Students only taking offline courses partly driven by student
demographics (e.g., an older student base more likely to be employed while at school). Data through 1995 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for degree-granting institutions.
Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees & participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. The degree-granting classification is very similar to the earlier higher education
classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges & excludes a few higher education institutions that did not grant degrees. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
Undergraduate
Enrollments,
USA
Post-Secondary Education – Enrollments* Post-Secondary Students – % in Only Offline Courses
74%
67%
0%
50%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year = School Year Beginning in Fall
0
13MM
26MM
1970 1986 2002 2018
2 Year Undergraduate 4 Year Undergraduate
Any Graduate
%
Students
Taking
Only
Offline
Courses,
USA
238
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education / Learning =
Offline Institutions Expanding Reach
239
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education Enrollment =
High Across Diverse Base of Universities
Source: Babson Survey Research Group Grade Increase: Tracking Distance Education in the United States (2018)
Institution Enrollment
University of Phoenix – Arizona 129K
Grand Canyon University 69
Walden University 53
American Public University System 49
Ashford University 41
Capella University 38
Kaplan University – Davenport 37
Colorado Technical University 25
Chamberlain College of Nursing 24
Columbia Southern University 23
Full Sail University 21
DeVry University-Illinois 19
Total Enrollment 528K
Institution Enrollment
University of Maryland 51K
University of Central Florida 36
Ivy Tech Community College 35
Arizona State University 31
University of Florida 31
Florida International University 30
Lone Star College System 23
University of South Florida 22
University of Texas Arlington 21
Houston Community College 19
Valencia College 18
California State – Northridge 17
St Petersburg College 16
Texas Tech University 16
Penn State University – Main 16
College of Southern Nevada 15
Kent State University 15
Florida State University 15
University of Houston 15
University of Cincinnati 14
University of Illinois at U-C 14
Ohio State University – Main 14
Penn State University – World 13
University of North Texas 13
Utah State University 13
N. Virginia Community College 13
University of Arizona 13
Northern Arizona University 13
California State – Fullerton 13
Total Enrollment 576K
Institution Enrollment
Western Governors University 84K
Liberty University 68
Southern New Hampshire U. 64
Excelsior College 42
Brigham Young University 36
Ultimate Medical Academy 16
Embry-Riddle 13
National University California 13
Total Enrollment 336K
Top 50 USA Post-Secondary Online Enrollment Leaders (2017)
Public Private – For Profit Private – Not For Profit
240
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education Courses =
Top Offline Institutions Ramping Online Offerings
2016 2017 2018 2019
Degree Programs @ Top Institutions Moving Online via Coursera
University of Illinois
Master of Business Administration
Master of Computer Science
HEC Paris
MSc of Innovation &
Entrepreneurship
Arizona State University
Master of Computer Science
University of Pennsylvania
Master of Computer
Information & Technology
University of Illinois
Master of Science in Accountancy
University of London
Bachelor of Science in
Computer Science
Macquarie University
Global MBA
University of Michigan
Master of Public Health
Master of Applied Data Science
Imperial College London
Master of Public Health
Master of Applied Data Science
Source: Coursera (6/19). Note: Data reflects first year of program offering of active programs on Coursera.
University of Colorado Boulder
Master of Science in
Electrical Engineering
241
Internet Trends
2019
…Online Education / Learning Platforms =
Scaling…Different Shapes & Sizes
242
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education Program Managers =
2U
Cumulative Classes Broadcast
Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research (5/18). Christopher Paucek Interview with Code (11/18).
0
300K
600K
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thousands
Online Graduate Programs
Live
/
Real-Time
University
Classes
Broadcast
on
2U
Why should you pick up your life, quit your job & move to
attend school if you can get everything you would receive
normally from that experience over the Internet…
but not sacrifice either quality or the level of relationships –
between students & faculty or students & fellow students.
[You can] become a full member of that community,
getting the same degree & the same level of access.
Christopher Paucek – Co-Founder & CEO 2U, 11/18
2U – Post-Secondary (USA)
243
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education Marketplaces =
Coursera…
Source: Coursera. Note: Course popularity based on average daily enrollments. Graph shows learners as of 12/18.
Machine Learning Stanford
Learning How to Learn: Powerful Mental Tools to
Help You Master Tough Subjects UC San Diego
The Science of Well-Being Yale
Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Technologies Princeton
Algorithms, Part I Princeton
English for Career Development University of Pennsylvania
Financial Markets Yale
Introduction to Psychology University of Toronto
Cómo Hacer una Tesis Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Chinese for Beginners Peking University
Top Courses, 2018 Learners
0
20MM
40MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Registered
Learners
30% 28% 20% 11% 5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
North America Asia Europe South America Africa
Learners by Geography
Coursera – Post-Secondary (Global)
244
Internet Trends
2019
…Online Education Marketplaces =
Udemy
Instructors + Students
Source: Udemy (5/19).
0
25K
50K
0
16MM
32MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
Students
(Blue
Bar)
Instructors
(Red
Line)
Udemy – Continuing Education (Global)
From day one, we wanted to create a destination
where anyone could learn skills to improve their
life at an affordable price.
Since most of our students learn in order to advance
at work, we have also focused on building an
enterprise solution with over 3,000 curated courses
that focus on business-relevant skills. This has been
one of the fastest-growing portions of our business,
with customers growing +13x since 2015.
Eren Bali – Co-Founder, Udemy, 5/19
Education Marketplace
200MM+ Enrollments in 100K+ Courses
245
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education (Post-Graduation Income Sharing) =
Lambda School
0
1K
2K
1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19
Active
Lambda
School
Students
Students
Lambda School – Post-Secondary (Global)
Income Share Agreements
Source: Lambda School (6/19).
The traditional higher education model downloads the
financial risks to the students. Universities aren’t
incentivized to help students succeed because tuition
is paid up front. Not at Lambda School.
We only succeed when our students do – with our ISA model,
students pay no tuition until they have landed a job earning
$50K or more. By aligning the incentives of Lambda School
with those of the student, we eliminate the financial risk.
Ultimately, we help people with raw talent refine their skills &
match them with great, high-paying careers they love.
Austen Allred – Co-Founder & CEO, Lambda School, 6/19
246
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education Learning Tools =
Chegg…
0
2MM
4MM
2015 2016 2017 2018
Services
Subscribers
Source: Chegg, Dan Rosensweig presenting @ Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, Telecom Conference (2/19).
Services Subscribers
Chegg – Post-Secondary (USA)
Subscription Education Support
If you learn better by just walking through the steps,
if you learn better by asking questions, if you learn better
by watching videos, we teach you that way.
We are constantly expanding the way we can
teach you & the subjects that we're available for,
the speed in which we can get you the answer back,
the format in which you can consume it.
Dan Rosensweig – CEO, Chegg, 2/19
247
Internet Trends
2019
…Online Education Learning Tools =
Quizlet…
0
30MM
60MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Monthly
Active
Users
Source: Quizlet eCampus News Interview (4/19).
Monthly Active Users
Quizlet – Consumer Learning (Global)
Customizable Learning Tools
We recognize that technological innovation will continue to
evolve jobs of the future. Educators have the power to equip
students with evergreen skills that will always be necessary in
a career, like learning how to learn & fostering a sense of
curiosity to take throughout life. Students can really benefit
from teachers setting a precedent that ongoing learning is
normal & healthy so that incoming employees are
agile & able to take on whatever comes their way.
Matthew Glotzbach – CEO, Quizlet, 4/19
248
Internet Trends
2019
…Online Education Learning Tools =
Remind
Source: Remind (6/19). Peak total monthly active users. Consists primarily of USA + Canada users.
Teacher-Student-Parent Communication Monthly Active Users
0
20MM
40MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Monthly
Active
Users
Remind – K-12 + Post-Secondary (North America)
249
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education (Remote Video Chat) =
VIPKid
Source: VIPKid (3/19).
Students + Teachers
30K
70K
200K
600K
0
350K
700K
2017 2018 2019
VIPKid
Students
&
Teachers
VIPKid – Students Age 4-15 (China) + Teachers (North America)
Students
Teachers
Remote Language Instruction
250
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education (Virtual Classrooms) =
Byju’s
Source: Byju’s (5/19).
Paying Students
0
1MM
2MM
3/16 3/17 3/18 3/19
Paying
Students
Byju’s – Students Age 9-17 (India)
Video-Based Classes
251
Internet Trends
2019
Online Learning (Broad-Based Video) =
YouTube Educational Content
Selected Education Channel Subscribers
9MM
5MM
0
5MM
10MM
Crash
Course
TED-
Ed
Asap
SCIENCE
Smarter
Every
Day
Khan
Academy
Subscribers
2013 2019
Source: Google / YouTube (5/19), Pearson / The Harris Poll Beyond Millennials: the Next Generation of Learners survey (8/18). Survey includes
2,587 USA respondents ages 14-40 years old. Note: Hours of ‘How-To’ videos are for the year 2017 and represent videos with ‘How-To’ in the
title. Booktubers are content creators that share book reviews & discussion groups on YouTube. Views are cumulative.
4.5B
Annual Hours of ‘How-To’ Video Viewership
200MM+
Views on Booktuber Content
59%
Gen Z Users Cite YouTube as
Preferred Learning Tool
YouTube
252
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education (Job-Relevant Skills)…
Google = Certifications for In-Demand Jobs...
$49
Monthly Cost of Coursera Program Courses
8 Months
Average Time Needed to Complete Program
10K+
Learners Who Have Received
Financial Support from Google
0
60K
120K
3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 3/19
Coursera = Cumulative Program Enrollments
‘Grow With Google’ IT Support Professional Certificate
Source: Coursera (6/19).
253
Internet Trends
2019
…Online Education (Job-Relevant Skills)…
Coursera = ~80% Revenue…Business / Tech / Data Science…
Data Science
31%
Technology
25%
Business
23%
Other
21%
Job-Relevant Skills, per Coursera*
Coursera
Consumer Learner Revenue by Course Domain, 2018
Top Specializations, 2018
Source: Coursera (6/19)
254
Internet Trends
2019
…Online Education (Job-Relevant Skills)…
Skill Building = Increasingly Offered by Employers
0
1K
2K
3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 3/19
Source: Coursera (6/19). Note: a Coursera enterprise partner is a company engaged with Coursera to provide employee skillbuilding programs based on Coursera content
Coursera Enterprise Partners
Coursera
Enterprise
Partners
255
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education =
High Interest…
Retention / Completion Rates Vary
256
Internet Trends
2019
Online Learning (Massive Open Online Courses – MOOCs) =
Strong Growth…Completion / Retention Rates Vary
Source: Coursera (6/19). Note: Completion rate refers to the number of students that finish a course vs. the number that began the course.
4%
50%
0%
50%
100%
Free Paid
44%
0%
50%
100%
Paid
89%
0%
50%
100%
Paid
Enterprise
Non-Degree Consumer Degree Consumer
Coursera – Course Completion Rate, 2018
Unpaid
Learners
Paid
Learners
Enterprise
Learners
Paid Degree
Learners
257
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education =
More Growth + More Users + More Choice…
Lower Cost for Consumers
258
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education Costs =
Can Be Lower vs. Offline
$55K
$145K
$55K
$65K
$0
$80K
$160K
Undergraduate Degree Tuition / Fees (4 Years)
Arizona
Resident
Non-
Resident
Offline
The key to lowering cost is the introduction of technology
& new methods that help student success.
The key to stimulating [this] innovation is to change the focus
of the culture at a university from the faculty to the students.
If you change the focus from faculty‐centric to student‐centric,
you realize you need more tools to achieve certain objectives.
At Arizona State, we need tools for active learning,
adaptive learning (advising tools, artificial
intelligence‐based simulation tools & gaming tools)
all in addition to the faculty & advisors that we have.
Innovation is absolutely essential when you start
thinking about the success of every student.
Michael Crow – President, Arizona State University, 6/16
Source: Arizona State University (5/19). Wiley Online Library Interview (6/16)
Online Education Programs / Tool
Arizona State University
Arizona
Resident
Non-
Resident
Online
259
Internet Trends
2019
IMMIGRATION =
IMPORTANT TO USA TECHNOLOGY LEADERSHIP
260
Internet Trends
2019
USA = 60% of Most Highly Valued Tech Companies Founded By…
1st or 2nd Generation Americans…1.9MM Employees, 2018
Immigrant Founders / Co-Founders of Top 25 USA Valued Public Tech
Companies, Ranked by Market Capitalization
Source: CapIQ as of 6/7/19. *While Andy Grove (from Hungary) is not a co-founder of Intel, he joined as COO on the day it was incorporated. **Francisco D’Souza is a
person of Indian origin born in Kenya. ***Max Levchin / Luke Nosek / Peter Thiel’s startup Confinity merged with Elon Musk’s startup X.com to form PayPal in 3/00.
Rank Company
Mkt Cap
($B)
LTM Rev
($B)
Employees
(K)
Founder / Co-Founder
(1st or 2nd Gen Immigrant)
Generation
1 Microsoft $1,007B $122B 131K -- --
2 Amazon 888 242 648 Jeff Bezos 2nd, Cuba
3 Apple 875 258 132 Steve Jobs 2nd, Syria
4 Alphabet / Google 741 142 99 Sergey Brin 1st, Russia
5 Facebook 495 59 36 Eduardo Saverin 1st, Brazil
6 Cisco 239 51 74 -- --
7 Intel 206 71 107 --* --
8 Oracle 182 40 137
Larry Ellison /
Bob Miner
2nd, Russia /
2nd, Iran
9 Netflix 158 17 7 -- --
10 Adobe 136 10 21 -- --
11 PayPal 134 16 22
Max Levchin /
Luke Nosek /
Peter Thiel /
Elon Musk***
1st, Ukraine /
1st, Poland /
1st, Germany /
1st, South Africa
12 Salesforce 125 14 35 -- --
13 IBM 118 79 351 Herman Hollerith 2nd, Germany
14 Texas Instruments 104 16 30
Cecil Green /
J. Erik Jonsson
1st, UK /
2nd, Sweden
15 NVIDIA 89 11 13 Jensen Huang 1st, Taiwan
16 Qualcomm 84 21 35 Andrew Viterbi 1st, Italy
17 Booking.com 77 14 25 -- --
18 Uber 75 12 22 Garrett Camp 1st, Canada
19 Automatic Data Processing 73 14 57 Henry Taub 2nd, Poland
20 VMware 69 9 23 Edouard Bugnion 1st, Switzerland
21 Intuit 67 7 9 -- --
22 ServiceNow 51 3 8 -- --
23 Workday 48 3 11 Aneel Bhusri 2nd, India
24 Micron 38 30 36 -- --
25 Cognizant 36 16 282
Francisco D'Souza /
Kumar Mahadeva
1st, India** /
1st, Sri Lanka
261
Internet Trends
2019
USA = Many Highly Valued Private Tech Companies Founded By…
1st Generation Immigrants
Source for Valuation & Founders Backgrounds: Based on analysis by Pitchbook, Wall Street Journal, CB Insights, Forbes, Business Insider, &
the National Foundation for American Policy. *UiPath is headquartered in New York, NY but was originally founded in Romania.
Company
Founder / Country of
Origin
Valuation
Co-Founder ($B)
WeWork Adam Neumann Israel $47B
SpaceX Elon Musk South Africa 31
Stripe
John Collison
Ireland 23
Patrick Collison
Palantir Peter Thiel Germany 21
Epic Games Mark Rein Canada 15
DoorDash Tony Xu China 13
Wish
Peter Szulczewski
Canada 9
Danny Zhang
Instacart Apoorva Mehta India 8
Slack
Stewart Butterfield Canada
7
Serguei Mourachov Russia
Cal Henderson UK
UiPath*
Daniel Dines
Romania 7
Marius Tirca
Tanium David Hindawi Iraq 7
Unity Technologies
David Helgason Iceland
6
Nicholas Francis Denmark
Joachim Ante Germany
Robinhood
Baiju Bhatt India
6
Vlad Tenev Bulgaria
Compass Ori Allon Israel 4
Credit Karma Kenneth Lin China 4
Houzz
Adi Tatarko
Israel 4
Alon Cohen
Snowflake
Marcin Zukowski Netherlands
4
Benoit Dageville France
Thierry Cruanes France
Rubrik
Bipul Sinha India
3
Arvind Nithrakashyap India
Arvind Jain India
Soham Mazumdar India
Zoox Tim Kentley-Klay Australia 3
Oscar Health Mario Schlosser Germany 3
Company
Founder / Country of
Origin
Valuation
Co-Founder ($B)
Crowdstrike Dmitri Alperovitch Russia $3B
Affirm Max Levchin Ukraine 3
Databricks
Ali Ghodsi Sweden
3
Matei Zaharia Romania
Ion Stoica Romania
Nuro
Jiajun Zhu China
3
Dave Ferguson New Zealand
Automation Anywhere
Ankur Kothari India
3
Mihir Shukla India
Neeti Metha Shukia India
Rushabh Parm India
Confluent
Jun Rao China
3
Neha Narkhede India
Roblox David Baszucki Canada 2
Medallia Borge Hald Norway 2
Lime
Toby Sun
China 2
Brad Bao
Zume Pizza Alex Garden Canada 2
Gusto Tomer London Israel 2
Lemonade
Shai Wininger
Israel 2
Daniel Schreiber
LegalZoom Brian Lee South Korea 2
Avant
Al Goldstein Uzbekistan
2
John Sun China
Paul Zhang China
Apttus Krik Krappe UK 2
Postmates Bastian Lehmann Germany 2
Sprinklr Ragy Thomas India 2
Cloudflare Michelle Zatlyn Canada 2
Carta Manu Kumar India 2
ZocDoc Oliver Kharraz Germany 2
Warby Parker Dave Gilboa Sweden 2
Carbon3D Alex Ermoshkin Russia 2
Pony.ai
James Peng
China 2
Tiancheng Lo
ServiceTitan
Ara Mahdessian Iran
2
Vahe Kuzoyan Armenia
Segment Ilya Volodarsky Russia 2
Quanergy Tianyue Yu China 2
262
Internet Trends
2019
USA = 14% of Population Foreign-Born & Rising…
Near All-Time High (1910) @ 15%
Source: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) tabulation of data from U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2017 American Community Surveys (ACS) & 1970, 1990 & 2000 Decennial Census. All other data are from Campbell J. Gibson &
Emily Lennon, "Historical Census Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States: 1850 to 1990" (Working Paper no. 29., U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 1999). Note: The term "immigrants" (also
known as the foreign born) refers to people residing in the United States who were not U.S. citizens at birth. This population includes naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents (LPRs), certain legal nonimmigrants
(e.g., persons on student or work visas), those admitted under refugee or asylee status & persons illegally residing in the United States. Population growth figures from St. Louis FRED database.
0%
8%
16%
0
180MM
360MM
1907 1929 1951 1973 1995 2017
Foreign-Born Population USA-Born Population Foreign % Total
USA
Population
(Blue
+
Grey
Area)
Foreign-Born
%
of
Total
(Red
Line)
USA Population vs. Foreign-Born % of Total Population
263
Internet Trends
2019
USA INC.* =
WHERE YOUR TAX DOLLARS GO
*USA, Inc. Full Report – bondcap.com/report/usa/
264
Internet Trends
2019
USA Income Statement =
-18% Average Net Margin Over 30 Years
USA Income Statement
Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget. *Individual & corporate income
taxes include capital gains taxes. Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September. Non-defense discretionary
includes federal spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions.
F1988 F1993 F1998 F2003 F2008 F2013 F2018 Comments
Revenue ($B) $909 $1,154 $1,722 $1,782 $2,524 $2,775 $3,330
Y/Y Growth 6% 6% 9% (4%) (2%) 13% 0% +5% Y/Y average, 1988-2018
Individual Income Taxes* $401 $510 $829 $794 $1,146 $1,316 $1,684 Largest driver of revenue
% of Revenue 44% 44% 48% 45% 45% 47% 51%
Social Insurance Taxes $334 $428 $572 $713 $900 $948 $1,171 Social Security & Medicare payroll tax
% of Revenue 37% 37% 33% 40% 36% 34% 35%
Corporate Income Taxes* $95 $118 $189 $132 $304 $274 $205 Fluctuates with economic conditions
% of Revenue 10% 10% 11% 7% 12% 10% 6%
Other $79 $99 $133 $144 $174 $237 $271 Estate & gift taxes, duties / fees…
% of Revenue 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8%
Expense ($B) $1,064 $1,409 $1,652 $2,160 $2,983 $3,455 $4,109
Y/Y Growth 6% 2% 3% 7% 9% (2%) 3%
Entitlement / Mandatory $448 $671 $859 $1,182 $1,595 $2,032 $2,522 Risen owing to rising healthcare costs +
% of Expense 42% 48% 52% 55% 53% 59% 61% aging population
Non-Defense Discretionary $174 $247 $282 $419 $522 $577 $639 Education / law enforcement /
% of Expense 16% 18% 17% 19% 18% 17% 16% transportation / general government…
Defense $291 $292 $270 $405 $612 $626 $623 2008 increase driven by War on Terror
% of Expense 27% 21% 16% 19% 21% 18% 15%
Net Interest on Public Debt $152 $199 $241 $153 $253 $221 $325 Recent benefit of historic low interest rates
% of Expense 14% 14% 15% 7% 8% 6% 8%
Surplus / Deficit ($B) ($155) ($255) $69 ($378) ($459) ($680) ($779) -18% average net margin, 1988-2018
Net Margin (%) (17%) (22%) 4% (21%) (18%) (24%) (23%)
265
Internet Trends
2019
…USA Income Statement =
Net Loses in 45 of 50 Years
USA Annual Profits & Losses
-$1,500B
-$1,000B
-$500B
$0
$500B
1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011 2018
USA
Annual
Net
Profit
/
Loss
Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget. Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September.
$0
266
Internet Trends
2019
USA Entitlements =
Medicare + Medicaid Driving Most Spending Growth…
Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget. *1988 Income Security programs
defined as Food Stamps + SSI + Family Support + Child Nutrition + Earned Income Tax Credit + Other. 2018 Income
Security defined as Earned Income Tax Credit + SNAP + SSI + Unemployment + Family Support + Child Nutrition. In
2018, there was an additional ~$302B in mandatory spending, including Veterans’ pensions & ~$81B in 1988.
20%
7%
3%
4%
24%
14%
9%
7%
0%
15%
30%
Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security
USA
Mandatory
Entitlements
Medicare Medicaid
1988 2018
USA Entitlements by Category
1988 Entitlements* =
$367B / 34% of Expenses
2018 Entitlements* =
$2.2T / 54% of Expenses
1988 2018
1988 2018
267
Internet Trends
2019
42%
61%
27%
15%
16%
16%
14%
8%
0%
50%
100%
1988 2018
USA
Expenses
Entitlements / Mandatory Defense
Non-Defense Discretionary Net Interest Cost
…USA Entitlements =
61% vs. 42% of Government Spending Thirty Years Ago
USA Expenses by Category
$1.1T $4.1T
10%
5%
0%
USA
10Y
Treasury
Yield
1988 → 2018
Change
Debt*
+$14T (+668%)
Entitlements
+$2.1T (+463%)
Non-Defense
Discretionary
+$465B (+268%)
Defense
+$332B (+114%)
Net Interest Cost:
+$173B (+114%)
10 Year Treasury Yield
Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget, USA Treasury
*Debt reflects net debt (i.e. excludes debt issued by The Treasury & owned by other Government accounts)
Note: Yellow line represents yield on 10-year USA Treasury bill from 12/31/87 to 12/31/18.
268
Internet Trends
2019
2017…
$61K =
Median USA Household Income
$17K =
Average Entitlement Payout per Household from Federal Government…
Scale = Equivalent to 28% of Household Income
…1987
$26K =
Median USA Household Income
$4K =
Average Entitlement Payout per Household from Federal Government…
Scale = Equivalent to 15% of Household Income
USA Entitlements Growth Over 30 Years =
Looking @ Numbers…Closer to Home
Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget, US Census Bureau
269
Internet Trends
2019
HEALTHCARE (USA) =
DIGITAL IMPACT EXPANDING ACROSS ECOSYSTEM
CREATED BY NOAH KNAUF @ BOND
270
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Cost =
High + Rising for Government / Consumers
0% 10% 20%
USA
SWITZERLAND
FRANCE
GERMANY
SWEDEN
JAPAN
CANADA
AUSTRIA
THE NETHERLANDS
BELGIUM
GREAT BRITAIN
FINLAND
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
ITALY
SPAIN
GREECE
CHILE
KOREA
ISRAEL
HUNGARY
IRELAND
CZECH REPUBLIC
POLAND
MEXICO
TURKEY
USA
Government / Compulsory Voluntary
Health Expenditures –
% of GDP, 2017, per OECD
Health
Spend
(%
of
GDP)
0%
15%
30%
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
Health Expenditures –
% of Government Total, USA
Federal Government State / Local Government
Total USA Government
Health
Expenditure
(%
of
Total
Expenditure)
Source: USA Federal + State & Local Healthcare expenditures per the Center for Medicare / Medicaid Studies. Total USA Government
expenditures per USA Bureau of Economic Analysis Data. Total Health expenditure per OECD data includes all public / private healthcare
spend for the year 2017 (some data subject to future revision per OECD).
271
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Insurance Coverage =
Increasingly from Government vs. Employer
0
180MM
360MM
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% of Health-Insured Population, USA
Enrollees
/
Beneficiaries,
USA
Government
Employer
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of Census Bureau's American Community Survey (2008-2017). Note: Government = Those
covered by Medicare, Medicaid, or Military / Veteran Coverage. Employer = those covered through a current or former employer or union.
Out of Pocket = Those covered by a policy purchased directly from an insurance company, either as policyholder or as dependent.
Out of Pocket
63%
30%
7%
54%
39%
7%
272
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Preventable Deaths / Efficiency =
USA Worse vs. Peers
Source: Commonwealth Fund Analysis (2017). Preventable deaths defined as deaths due to illnesses that are considered non-fatal with timely formal healthcare treatment, such as
hepatitis, renal failure, thyroid disorder & other chronic illnesses. Administrative spend defined as non-care giving roles, such as billings & collections.
Administrative Healthcare Spend % Total, 2016
0 80 160
Switzerland
France
Australia
Norway
Sweden
Netherlands
Canada
Germany
UK
New Zealand
USA
Preventable Deaths per 100K People
USA
2004
2014
0% 3% 6% 9%
USA
Germany
Switzerland
Netherlands
Australia
Canada
Sweden
UK
Denmark
France
Japan
USA
273
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare =
Steadily Digitizing…Driven by Consumers
Source: Rock Health Digital Health Consumer Adoption Survey. 2018: n = 4,000, 2015: n = 4,017 Americans ages 18+.
0% 40% 80%
Live Video Telemedicine
Wearables
Mobile Tracking
Online Provider Reviews
Online Health Information
Consumer Adoption of Digital Health Tools, USA
2018
2015
% of Respondents, USA
274
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare (USA) =
Strong Digital Usage / Adoption
275
Internet Trends
2019
Data Pools =
Unlocking Deeper Research Insights
Patient engagement in decision-making has
been associated with increased patient
satisfaction & improved health outcomes
The study analyzed cross-sectional data from
1,945 participants of the [USA] National
Health & Aging Trends Study
Internet use was found to be associated with
active decision-making preference in older
adults. Similarly, health-related Internet use
was positively associated with decision-
making involvement in older adults.
Cajita, Whitehouse, et al.
Association Between Internet Use & Decision-Making
Preference in Older Adults (2/17) 0
7MM
14MM
2012 2014 2016 2018
Annual Consumer Genomics Tests
Conducted on Illumina Equipment, Global
Source: Illumina @ JPMorgan Healthcare conference (1/18). National Center for Biotechnology Information (USA, 2/17)
Internet Research = Increasing Access
to Data / Decision-Making Tools
Genomic Testing = Growing Base
of Personal Genetic Data
Genomic
Tests
276
Internet Trends
2019
Electronic Health Records (EHR) =
Organizing Patient Data
EHR Adoption, USA
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
%
Using
E.H.R.
System
Source: Office for National Coordination of Health Information Technology. Stanford / Harris poll of 521 Primary Care physicians in USA (Family
Practice, General Practice, or Internal Medicine) recruited through the American Medical Association. All have been using EHR for at least 1 month
Note: Adoption of EHR refers to any EHR system being used by Office-based physicians or hospitals, does not imply all records are kept electronically.
…EHR Usage = Still Early Innings EHR Adoption = Nearing 100%…
Physician’s Offices
Hospitals
Top Physician ‘Wants’ for Future EHR
Development, per Stanford / Harris Poll, 9/18
67%
43%
32%
0% 40% 80%
Interoperability
Predictive
Analytics
Financial / Cost
Data Integration
277
Internet Trends
2019
Health Networks =
Aligning Provider Teams Across Organizations
0
0.7MM
1.4MM
0
30MM
60MM
Collective
Acute
Visits,
USA
(Blue
Bar)
Source: Collective Medical Technologies Inc. (6/19). *2019E represents annualized data as of 6/19. Note: Acute Visits =
Patient-Provider interactions (ED visit, IP stay). Insights = Unique provider-provider actions taken to optimize patient care
Collective Medical =
Real-Time Collaborative Health Network
Aligned Care Teams =
Improving Outcomes @ Lower Cost
We strive to empower a distributed care team
to act with aligned purpose, aware of what
each individual member is doing –
even if representing differing organizations –
all united by their shared stewardship
for the patient.
You can either throw a tremendous number
of expensive, scarce bodies at the problem
– which isn’t scalable – or you can use
technology. I’m not talking about mere
notifications that an encounter has
occurred, which we also do, but a deeper
level of collaboration.
Chris Klomp – CEO, Collective Medical, 6/19
Network Growth + Patient Impact
Collective
Insights,
USA
(Red
Line)
Insights
Acute Visits
278
Internet Trends
2019
Online Discovery =
Improving Accessibility + Availability of Care
Source: Zocdoc (6/17, 6/19)
Zocdoc =
Digital Healthcare Marketplace
0
4MM
8MM
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Zocdoc
Monthly
Patients,
USA
Optimizing Perishable Inventory =
Accelerating Access to Care
Zocdoc Monthly Patients, USA
Healthcare providers partner with
Zocdoc to fill their 20-30% unused,
perishable inventory.
This dramatically accelerates access to
care for patients.
While patients who call wait an average of 24
days to get in to see a doctor, when booking
online via Zocdoc, the typical appointment
happens within 24-72 hours.
Because of this win/win, in our first market
NYC, one in five new patient-doctor
relationships is established via Zocdoc.
Our other markets are following
the same trajectory.
Oliver Kharraz M.D. – CEO / Founder, Zocdoc, 6/19
279
Internet Trends
2019
On-Demand Urgent Care =
Reducing Time to Receive Treatment
0
80MM
160MM
2017 2018 2019
Solv
Cumulative
Medical
Billings
Saved,
USA
Source: Solv (6/19, 6/17-5/19). Note: Medical Bills Saved = Online appointments scheduled through Solv multiplied by 14% (Proportion of patient reported would have gone to the
ER multiplied by $800 net savings…ER $1,000 vs urgent care $200). Savings could either be out of pocket for consumers or split between the consumer and insurance company.
Solv =
Convenient Care Marketplace
On-Demand Access =
Combining Convenience + Speed
No longer are patients okay with waiting
as many as 24 days to see a doctor.
Solv is putting patients in front of a
provider who can treat their
symptoms in as little as 15 minutes.
The benefit this provides
consumers is real.
We’ve already given ~20 years back to
consumers who typically spend 2 hours
between booking an appointment & getting
their issue resolved.
Heather Fernandez – CEO / Co-Founder, Solv, 6/19
Cumulative Medical Billings Saved, USA
280
Internet Trends
2019
Telehealth / Telemedicine =
Strengthening Patient <> Practitioner Relationships
0%
40%
80%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
of
Hospitals
with
Telehealth
Systems,
USA
Source: American Hospital Association Fact Sheet: Telehealth (2/19), Teladoc SEC Filings.
Telehealth Systems =
Increasing Hospital Implementation
Teladoc =
Remote Medical Care
0
1.5MM
3.0MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Telehealth
Visits,
Global
Telehealth System Adoption, USA Teladoc Visits, Global
281
Internet Trends
2019
Prescription Delivery =
Improving Convenience + Affordability
0
150K
300K
2016 2017 2018 2019
Nurx
Medical
Interactions,
USA
Nurx =
On-Demand Drug Delivery
Prescription Drug Expenditures =
Rapidly Rising
$0
$200B
$400B
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Prescription
Drug
Expenditures,
USA
2018
Prescription Drug Expenditures, USA Nurx Monthly Medical Interactions, USA
Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) National Health Expenditures
(5/19), Nurx (5/19). Note: Medical Interactions = medical questions & ongoing fulfillment
282
Internet Trends
2019
Communication / Professional Community =
Extending Knowledge Base to Practitioners
0
0.6MM
1.2MM
2011 2013 2015 2017
Doximity
Registered
Members,
Global
Source: Doximity (5/19), Thrive Global (12/17). Members include physicians, physician assistants, nurse practitioners & medical students.
Doximity =
Physician Social Network
Communication = Increasing Ability
to Address Unique Cases
[A patient] was bitten by a Macaque
monkey & as a result, came down with a
rare form of encephalitis. A potentially fatal
brain inflammation. His physician used
Doximity to find one of the rare specialist
who could treat this condition.
There are only about 20 doctors in the
entire U.S. that are expert in this area.
The patient was referred & treated
successfully.
Most people don’t realize that referring
patients to the appropriate specialist isn’t
always easy for physicians & our network
makes that process seamless,
even in the toughest cases.
Jeff Tangney – CEO / Co-Founder, Doximity, 12/17
Doximity Registered Members
283
Internet Trends
2019
Health Insurance Management =
Simplifying + Centralizing User Experience
Oscar
Memberships,
USA
Source: Oscar Health, Mario Schlosser Interview with Wired (8/18). Note: Oscar data as of the first month of each year based on enrollments timing.
Oscar =
Digital Health Management
0
150K
300K
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Oscar Memberships, USA
Modernized Management =
Re-Imagining Legacy Systems
We have our own claims system we’ve
been building, we have our own clinical
management system, we built our
networks ourselves – pretty much
everything that we do internally to manage
people’s healthcare was reinvented &
rebuilt from a technology perspective & so
that’s what we can now go faster toward.
We can hire more engineers, we can hire
more data scientists, more product designers,
more smart clinicians who can think about
health care a different way.
Mario Schlosser – CEO / Co-Founder, Oscar Health, 8/18
284
Internet Trends
2019
Health Incentive Tools =
Driving Positive Choices via Savings + Personalized Rewards
Source: Rally Health / UnitedHealth Group (6/19)
Rewards = Building + Reinforcing
Positive Habits
$0
$0.8B
$1.6B
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Rally Health Cumulative Incentives
Rally Health =
Incentivizing Healthy Living
Rally
Health
Cumulative
Incentives,
USA
285
Internet Trends
2019
Medicare Plan Management =
Personalizing Coverage + Costs
Medicare
Advantage
Enrollment,
USA
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS Medicare Advantage enrollment files (2008-2018) & MPR numbers (1999-2007) from March of
the respective year, with the exception of 2006, which is from April (11/18). Clover Health (3/19). Note: Enrollment includes cost plans & Medicare
Advantage Plans. Approximately 61MM people are enrolled in Medicare in 2018.
Medicare Advantage Enrollments =
On the Rise
0
11MM
22MM
1999 2004 2009 2014 2018
Medicare Advantage Enrollment, USA
Medicare
Advantage
Members,
USA
Clover Health =
Matching Plans with Members’ Needs
0
20K
40K
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Clover Health Members, USA
286
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Innovation =
Internet Leaders Building Capabilities
287
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Innovation =
Internet Leaders Poised to Capture Data
Source: Rock Health Digital Health Consumer Adoption Survey. 2018: n = 4,000. *Note this question was only asked to the 11% of total
respondents that answered ‘yes’ to the question asking whether they’d be willing to share their health data with a tech company.
34%
40%
46%
49%
51%
53%
60%
0% 45% 90%
IBM
Facebook
Samsung
Apple
Microsoft
Amazon
Google
Internet Leaders = Increasingly Trusted with Healthcare Data
With which tech company would you share your health data?*
% of Respondents, USA, 2018
288
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Innovation = Apple…
Hardware + App Store Leveraging Research For Consumers
Apple = Democratization of Healthcare
If you zoom out into the future & you
look back, & you ask the question,
‘What was Apple’s greatest
contribution to mankind,’
it will be about health.
Because our business has always been about
enriching people’s lives. We’ve gotten into healthcare
more & more through the Watch, other features
created with ResearchKit & CareKit & including
medical records on the iPhone. This a huge deal.
[Healthcare] is very important for people.
We are democratizing it. We are taking what
has been with the institution & empowering
the individual to manage their health.
We’re just at the front end of this.
Tim Cook – CEO, Apple, 1/19
Source: Apple. Tim Cook Interview with CNBC (1/19). Morgan Stanley estimates that 70MM Apple Watch units have been sold from 4/15-3/19.
Apple ResearchKit = Medical Research
Technology for Consumers
289
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Innovation = Google / Alphabet…
Artificial Intelligence Unlocking Insights for Practitioners
Google =
AI Enabled Healthcare
If AI can shape healthcare, it has
to work through the regulations of
healthcare. In fact I see that as
one of the biggest areas where the
benefits will play out for
the next 10-20 years.
We had recently done work on diabetic
retinopathy, it's a cause for blindness,
but using AI machine learning we can
detect it much better than humans can.
Sundar Pichai – CEO, Google, 10/17
Source: DeepMind (11/18), Google. Sundar Pichai Interview with NDTV (10/17).
DeepMind Streams =
AI Assistant for Doctors + Nurses
290
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Innovation = Microsoft Healthcare…
Enabling Healthcare’s Move to the Cloud with AI Solutions
Microsoft =
Intelligent Healthcare
The healthcare industry has made great strides
over the last decade in helping digitize healthcare
& so the next ten will be about turning those
assets into better health insights, experiences &
outcomes. This is where we can make a big
contribution. Cloud, AI & research capabilities will
play a fundamental role towards the future.
At Microsoft, we’re continuing to learn & grow
every day from the extensive set of partnerships
that we have had in healthcare: over 168,000
healthcare organizations in 140 countries.
Health & wellbeing are central to our
daily lives. New inventions developed
with our partners using Microsoft AI &
machine learning can create a better
future & make healthcare delivery more
personal, affordable & accessible.
Peter Lee – CVP, Microsoft Healthcare, 4/19
Source: Microsoft Industry Blog (4/19)
Microsoft Health Bot =
Troubleshooting Health Issues
291
Internet Trends
2019
38%
24%
37%
0% 30% 60%
Do not take
perscription medicine
>4 prescription drugs
1-3 prescription drugs
Healthcare Innovation = Amazon / PillPack…
Consumer-Centric Approach to Medication Management
PillPack = Consumable Healthcare
PillPack is meaningfully improving its
customers’ lives & we want to help them
continue making it easy for people to save
time, simplify their lives, & feel healthier.
We’re excited to see what we can do
together on behalf of customers over time.
Jeff Wilke – CEO, Amazon Worldwide Consumer, 7/18
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (2/19). Survey of 1,400 USA adults over the age of 18, including 606
over the age of 65, conducted from 2/14-2/19/19. Respondents were asked the question: ‘Do you currently take any
prescription medicine or not? IF YES: How many different prescription drugs do you take?’. PillPack press release (7/18).
Prescription Medicine Usage =
Increasingly Common
% of Respondents, USA
Do not take prescription
medicine
62% Take
Prescription
Drugs
Prescription Medicine Usage, 2019, USA
292
Internet Trends
2019
Healthcare Cost =
High + Rising for Government / Consumers
0% 10% 20%
USA
SWITZERLAND
FRANCE
GERMANY
SWEDEN
JAPAN
CANADA
AUSTRIA
THE NETHERLANDS
BELGIUM
GREAT BRITAIN
FINLAND
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
ITALY
SPAIN
GREECE
CHILE
KOREA
ISRAEL
HUNGARY
IRELAND
CZECH REPUBLIC
POLAND
MEXICO
TURKEY
USA
Government / Compulsory Voluntary
Health Expenditures,
% of GDP, 2017, per OECD
Health
Spend
(%
of
GDP)
0%
15%
30%
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
Health Expenditures
% of Government Total, USA
Federal Government State / Local Government
Total USA Government
Health
Expenditure
(%
of
Total
Expenditure)
Source: USA Federal + State & Local Healthcare expenditures per the Center for Medicare / Medicaid Studies. Total USA Government
expenditures per USA Bureau of Economic Analysis Data. Total Health expenditure per OECD data includes all public / private healthcare
spend for the year 2017 (some data subject to future revision per OECD).
293
Internet Trends
2019
CHINA INTERNET =
INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS + BUSINESSES
CONTINUE TO IMPRESS
Disclaimer – The information provided in the following 39 slides is for informational & illustrative purposes only. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given & no responsibility or
liability is accepted by any person with respect to the accuracy, reliability, correctness or completeness of this Information or its contents or any oral or written communication in connection with
it. Hillhouse Capital may hold equity stakes in companies mentioned in this section. A business relationship, arrangement, or contract by or among any of the businesses described herein may
not exist at all & should not be implied or assumed from the information provided. The information provided herein by Hillhouse Capital does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an
offer to buy, & may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of, any security or interest offered, sponsored, or managed by Hillhouse Capital or its affiliates.
PREPARED BY HILLHOUSE CAPITAL
294
Internet Trends
2019
China Macro Trends
295
Internet Trends
2019
Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
China PMI Business Index + Enterprise Confidence Index (%)
PMI:
Production
&
Business
Expectation
%
PBOC
Industrial
Survey
%
China Near-Term Business Confidence =
Fluctuating…
40
60
80
47
55
63
2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PMI: Production and Business Expectation (LS) PBOC Industrial Survey: Enterprise Confidence (RS)
296
Internet Trends
2019
Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research.
*A z-score measures how many standard deviations above or below the historical average a data point is.
China Consumer Confidence Proxy
Based on Average Z-Score* of Household Loans, Consumer Confidence Index, Passenger Car Sales,
Air Passenger Traffic & Catering Consumption
Consumer
Confidence
Proxy,
China
…China Near-Term Consumer Confidence =
Fluctuating
-3
0
3
12/11 6/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/14 12/14 6/15 12/15 6/16 12/16 6/17 12/17 6/18 12/18
297
Internet Trends
2019
China Service Sector =
Continues to Drive Economic Growth
China Service Sector Output as % of Nominal GDP
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Morgan Stanley Research
Note: Service sector defined as all industries outside of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industries (except support
services to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industries), mining (except auxiliary activities of mining), manufacturing
(except repairs for metal products, machinery & equipment), production & supply of electricity, steam, gas, water, & construction.
0%
30%
60%
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
%
of
GDP,
China
298
Internet Trends
2019
Source: CEIC, UN, Morgan Stanley Research
0%
50%
100%
1950 1967 1984 2001 2018
%
of
Total
Population
USA Japan Korea India China
China Urbanization =
Rising Rapidly…Room to Grow
Urban Population – % Total Population
299
Internet Trends
2019
China Urban Disposable Income Per Capita =
Solid +8% Y/Y
Source: CEIC, assumes constant exchange rate of 1USD = 6.9RMB.
0%
13%
26%
$0
$3,000
$6,000
Urban Disposable Income per Capita Y/Y Growth
Urban
Disposable
Income
per
Capita
($,
Blue
Bar)
Y/Y
Growth
(Red
Line)
China Urban Disposable Income per Capita + Y/Y Growth
300
Internet Trends
2019
Source: SAFE, Morgan Stanley Research
China Current Account Balance
%
of
GDP,
China
China Trade Balance = Current Account Surplus Narrowing…
Rising Outbound Tourism Offsetting Decreasing Net Exports
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Income & Transfer Service Balance Goods Balance Current Account Balance
301
Internet Trends
2019
Source: Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research
China Share of World Exports =
Declining Since 2016 Due to Rising Wages + Aging Labor Force
Share
of
World
Exports
%,
China
China Share of World Exports (%)
0%
8%
16%
2000 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018
12M Trailing Sum 3M Trailing Sum
302
Internet Trends
2019
China Internet User / Usage Trends =
Robust Usage Growth
Primarily Driven by Short-Form Video
303
Internet Trends
2019
China Mobile Internet Users vs. Y/Y Growth
Source: China Internet Network Information Center
Note: Mobile Internet User Data is as of Year-End.
0%
40%
80%
0
500MM
1000MM
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Growth,
Y/Y
Mobile
Internet
Users,
China
China Mobile Internet Users Y/Y Growth
China Mobile Internet Users =
817MM…+9% vs. +8% Y/Y
304
Internet Trends
2019
China Mobile Internet Usage (Data) =
Continues to Accelerate +189% vs. +162% Y/Y
China Cellular Internet Data Usage & Growth Y/Y
0%
120%
240%
0
40EB
80EB
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Growth,
Y/Y
Mobile
Data
Usage,
China
(EB
=
Exabyte)
China Mobile Data Consumption Y/Y Growth
Source: China Ministry of Industry & Information Technology.
Note: Cellular Internet Refers to 3G/4G Network data.
305
Internet Trends
2019
China Short-Form Video =
Leading User + Usage Growth Across All App Categories
0
300MM
600MM
2017-04 2018-04 2019-04
China Short-Form Video – Daily Time Spent
Daily
Mobile
Hours
Spent
Source: QuestMobile (4/19). Note: Short-Form Form Videos are typically <5 Minute in Length &
include companies such as Kuaishou, Douyin, Baidu Haokan,etc
Daily
Active
Users
Leading Short-Form Video Platforms – DAUs
0
125MM
250MM
2017-04 2018-04 2019-04
Douyin Kuaishou Haokan
4/17 4/18 4/19 4/17 4/18 4/19
306
Internet Trends
2019
China Short-Form Video =
Driving Incremental Mobile Time Spent Growth
Source: QuestMobile (4/19)
0
75
150
Hours
per
User
per
Month
Average Smartphone Time Spent per MAU per Month
Mobile Short Form Video
Other
Finance
Reading
Music
Shopping
News
Games
Online Video
Browser, Input Method, App Store
Communication & Social Networking
307
Internet Trends
2019
China Innovation =
Games Driving Transformation of…
Payments / E-Commerce / Retail / Education
308
Internet Trends
2019
QR Code
Public Transit
48MM+ MAUs
Tiao yi tiao (Jump Jump)
First Mini-Program Game
100MM+ DAUs in two weeks
Source: WeChat Open Class PRO 2019(01/19), Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Summit(05/19), MAU per QuestMobile Mini-Programs 4/19.
Uniqlo
Brand
~3x Conversion vs. Industry
Pinduoduo
eCommerce
89MM+ MAUs
Tongcheng-Elong
Travel Booking
169MM+ MAUs
WeSing
Entertainment
73MM+ MAUs
Xiaoniangao
Photos
214MM+ MAUs
WeChat Jump Jump =
Simple Game Helped Create Ecosystem of Mini-Programs
309
Internet Trends
2019
Alipay Ant Forest =
Gamified Philanthropy Can Drive Consumer Engagement
Ant Forest
Accumulate green energy points by
completing tasks that reduce
carbon emission or paper waste
(walking / biking / public transit /
online & offline payment /
recycling / used goods…)
100MM
Real Trees Planted*
Source: *Ant Financial as of 4/19, **QuestMobile as of 4/19.
~4x
Average Alipay
Sessions per User per
Day**
Protect your virtual tree
green energy points or
‘collect’ friends’ points by
waking up early &
checking in often
Ant Financial & other charity
partners turn virtual tree
green energy points into
real trees to combat
deforestation
500MM
Cumulative Users of Ant
Forest* within Alipay
310
Internet Trends
2019
Pinduoduo = Group Buying…
Social Shopping + Gamified Discounts Drive Growth
Get Cheaper Price by
Sharing with Friends
Friends Can Play Game &
Help Reduce Prices
Trailing 12-Month GMV
0
$50B
$100B
Q1:17 Q3:17 Q1:18 Q3:18 Q1:19
GMV
($B)
Note: Assume FX 1USD=6.9RMB.
Pinduoduo
311
Internet Trends
2019
Belle / TopSports =
Digitization + Gamification Can Drive Same-Store-Sales Lift
Store Managers
Real-time Sales by
Category & SKU
Employee KPIs &
Peer Rankings
Store Associates
Gamified Rewards to
Complete KPIs
Competitive Sales
Games vs. Peer Stores
Source: Belle.
Belle / TopSports
312
Internet Trends
2019
Online Education =
Structured Fun Games Drive Learning
Coding Cat
Games of Codes
TAL (XRS) Online
Turning Math Learning Into Games
Cartoon + Students PK
Enhanced Learning Experience
313
Internet Trends
2019
China Innovation =
Internet-Based
Products + Business Models
314
Internet Trends
2019
China Chat =
Enabler of Transactions & Services
315
Internet Trends
2019
WeChat Innovation =
Evolution from Chat to Mini-Programs / Payments
1 2 3 4
WeChat
Public Account
Following
WeChat
Mini-Programs
Placing Order
WeChat
Mini-Programs
Browsing Items
WeChat
Integrated Payment
Finishing Payment
316
Internet Trends
2019
Global Rollouts =
Kakao / Line / Facebook Incorporate Transaction Features
Kakao
Chat / Music / Payment /
Games / Transportation…
Instagram / WhatsApp
Chat / Shopping /
Money Transfer…
Line
Chat / Payment /
Food / Coupons…
317
Internet Trends
2019
China Local Services =
Becoming ‘Super Apps’
318
Internet Trends
2019
Meituan = From Group Buying to Super App…
30+ Services…412MM Annual Transacting Users, +26% Y/Y…
Source: Company Material.
Meituan Mobile App Functions vs. Relevant US Peers
319
Internet Trends
2019
…Meituan Super App…
Growing Consumer Engagement + Transaction Frequency
Source: Meituan IPO prospectus
Meituan # of Transactions per User per Year by Cohort
320
Internet Trends
2019
Alipay = From Payments to Super App…
200K+ Mini-Programs…1B+ Users…70% Use 3+ Financial Services*
0
150MM
300MM
2017-04 2018-04 2019-04
Alipay
DAUs,
China
Source: China DAU per QuestMobile (4/19),* Categories of financial services provided by
Ant Financial include payment, wealth management, financing, insurance & credit system.
Daily Active Users, China
4/17 4/18 4/19
321
Internet Trends
2019
Global Rollouts =
Grab / Rappi / Uber Incorporate ‘Super App’ Features
Grab
Transport / Food /
Payment / Logistics…
Uber
Transport + Food +
e-Bikes + Freight…
Rappi
Food / Grocery /
More…
322
Internet Trends
2019
China Retail =
Online / Offline / Omni-Channel
323
Internet Trends
2019
Live-Streaming + E-Commerce = Can Increase…
Transparency + Interactivity + Influencer Engagement
Taobao Live
$14B+ Live-Streaming GMV
in 2018
Kuaishou
Live-Streaming
Shopping
MOGU
Live-Streaming = 24% of GMV
4x Repeat Purchase Rate
Source: Alibaba, MOGU.
Note: MOGU GMV for the year ended March 31, 2019
324
Internet Trends
2019
Various Online Grocery Retail Formats =
Competing For Consumer Wallet Share
• Order in app or groupbuy
in WeChat mini-programs
• Next day delivery to
neighborhood sorting
station + self pick up
• Franchised community
partner owner
• Order in app
• 30min delivery to home
• Owned & operated
inventory + fulfillment
Miss Fresh /
Dingdong Maicai /
Pupu Shengxian…
Xingsheng Youxuan /
Songshu Pinpin /
Dailuobo…
• Order in app
• 30min delivery to home
• Fulfilled by partner stores,
delivered by Meituan /
Ele.me / Taoxianda /JD
Meituan /
Ele.me / Taoxianda /
JD Daojia…
• Owned & operated stores
• Pick-up or delivery
• Freshippo – 135+ stores
Freshippo (Hema) /
7Fresh …
325
Internet Trends
2019
Alibaba ‘New Retail’ Strategy =
Digitizing Various Offline Retail Verticals
Intime
Fashion &
Department Stores
Freshippo / Hema
135+
Grocery Stores
Source: Company Materials
Eleme & Koubei
On-demand Delivery for
2,100+ Starbucks Stores
Suning JV
Consumer
Electronics
Sun Art
470 Supermarkets
Digitized
Easy Home
Home
Improvement
Tmall Store
Rural
Omni-Channel Stores
LingShouTong
1MM+ Mom-&-Pop
Stores Digitized
326
Internet Trends
2019
WeChat Groups & Mini-Programs =
Improving Customer Relationship Management (CRM) for Retail
Scan QR Code in
Store to Join
WeChat Group
Receive Latest
Product Info via
Sales Associates
Receive Latest
Brand Info via
Public Accounts
Purchase + Checkout
via WeChat
Mini Programs
Source: Belle.
Belle / TopSports WeChat Groups & Mini-Programs
327
Internet Trends
2019
Yonghui Superstores =
Creating Digital Grocery Experience @ Offline Stores
Home Delivery =
~15% of Sales
in Pilot Stores
50% of Home Delivery
Ordered via
WeChat Mini-Program
Red Packets Shared
in Group Chats
to Drive Engagement
Source: Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Summit (05/19)
Yonghui Superstores
328
Internet Trends
2019
China Education =
Spreading from Offline to Online
329
Internet Trends
2019
China K-12 Education =
Online Augmenting Offline Learning Experience
Xueersi Online (TAL)
K-12 Live-streaming
Group Courses
Zuoyebang
K-12 Homework Help
(take photos to get answer help)
+ Live-streaming Group Courses
Xueersi Shuangshi (TAL)
Online Lecturer +
Offline Tutor /
Teaching Assistant
330
Internet Trends
2019
China Kids (Ages 3-10) Education =
Increasing Online Platform Usage Outside of School Hours
VIPKid
English 1-on-1 &
Small Group Live-Streaming
Online Courses
Code Mao
Coding Live-streaming
Courses
Hetao Coding
Coding Recorded
Courses
331
Internet Trends
2019
China Government Services =
Online Access Rising
332
Internet Trends
2019
WeChat / AliPay = Digitizing Government Services…
500MM+ Consumers
YueShengShi WeChat Mini Program
10MM+ Verified Users in Guangdong Province
500+ Government Services
AliPay Public Services
~500MM Cumulative Consumers
Served Across 300+ Cities
Service
Covered
Cities
Wait Time
Before
Wait Time
After
Utility Bill Pay 300+ ~1 Hour ~1 Minute
Social Security
Application
240+ ~1 Hour ~1 Minute
Traffic Violation 200+ ~30 Min ~1 Minute
Hospital
Appointment
250+ --
50%
Reduction
Source: Tencent as of 4/19. Ant Financial.
333
Internet Trends
2019
Bond is a global technology investment firm that supports visionary founders throughout their life
cycle of innovation & growth. Bond’s founding partners have backed industry pioneers such as
DocuSign, Peloton, Spotify, Square & Uber.
This presentation, including the information contained herein, has been compiled for informational
purposes only & does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any
security. Any such offer or solicitation shall only be made pursuant to the final offering documents
related to such security.
The presentation relies on data + insights from a wide range of sources, including public + private
companies, market research firms + government agencies. We cite specific sources where data
are public; the presentation is also informed by non-public information + insights. We disclaim any
+ all warranties, express or implied, with respect to the presentation. No presentation content
should be construed as professional advice of any kind (including legal or investment advice).
We publish the Internet Trends®
report on an annual basis, but on occasion will highlight new
insights. We may post updates, revisions, or clarifications on Bond’s website (www.bondcap.com).
Bond owns significant equity positions in certain of the companies referenced in this presentation.
Disclaimer

More Related Content

Similar to internet trends 2019 presentation from KP (20)

Internet trends report June 2018
Internet trends report June 2018Internet trends report June 2018
Internet trends report June 2018
Peter Cockcroft
 
Internet trends report 2018
Internet trends report 2018Internet trends report 2018
Internet trends report 2018
Nguyễn Quang Huy
 
TechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends Report
TechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends ReportTechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends Report
TechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends Report
Josh Constine
 
Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018
Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018
Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018
WesleyMann2
 
Интернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends Report
Интернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends ReportИнтернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends Report
Интернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends Report
Victor Gridnev
 
Internet trends 2015_v3
Internet trends 2015_v3Internet trends 2015_v3
Internet trends 2015_v3
ani2208
 
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Lizzie Burton
 
Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015
Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015
Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015
Robin Ng
 
2015 Internet Trends Report
2015 Internet Trends Report2015 Internet Trends Report
2015 Internet Trends Report
IQbal KHan
 
[Report] Internet Trends 2015
[Report] Internet Trends 2015[Report] Internet Trends 2015
[Report] Internet Trends 2015
Hiệp Hội PR Việt Nam PRSVN
 
Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends
Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends
Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends
Mohamed Mahdy
 
Internet trends
Internet trends Internet trends
Internet trends
Honza Beranek
 
Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015
Taylor Greason
 
Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015
Dmytro Lysiuk
 
Internet Trends 2015, May
Internet Trends 2015, MayInternet Trends 2015, May
Internet Trends 2015, May
Евгений Храмов
 
Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015
Marc Costafreda
 
Internet Trends 2015
Internet Trends 2015Internet Trends 2015
Internet Trends 2015
OptimediaSpain
 
Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015
Marc Costafreda
 
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Benjamin Crucq
 
Internet trends 2015 code conference
Internet trends 2015   code conferenceInternet trends 2015   code conference
Internet trends 2015 code conference
Dung Do
 
Internet trends report June 2018
Internet trends report June 2018Internet trends report June 2018
Internet trends report June 2018
Peter Cockcroft
 
TechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends Report
TechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends ReportTechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends Report
TechCrunch - Mary Meeker 2018 Internet Trends Report
Josh Constine
 
Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018
Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018
Mary Meeker Internet trends report_2018
WesleyMann2
 
Интернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends Report
Интернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends ReportИнтернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends Report
Интернет тренды - 2015 Internet Trends Report
Victor Gridnev
 
Internet trends 2015_v3
Internet trends 2015_v3Internet trends 2015_v3
Internet trends 2015_v3
ani2208
 
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Lizzie Burton
 
Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015
Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015
Mary Meeker - Internet Trends Report 2015
Robin Ng
 
2015 Internet Trends Report
2015 Internet Trends Report2015 Internet Trends Report
2015 Internet Trends Report
IQbal KHan
 
Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends
Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends
Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends
Mohamed Mahdy
 
Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015
Internet trends 2015.05.27 | KPCB Internet trends 2015
Dmytro Lysiuk
 
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Internettrendsv1 150526193103-lva1-app6892
Benjamin Crucq
 
Internet trends 2015 code conference
Internet trends 2015   code conferenceInternet trends 2015   code conference
Internet trends 2015 code conference
Dung Do
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Authentically Social Win Reno by Corey Perlman
Authentically Social Win Reno by Corey PerlmanAuthentically Social Win Reno by Corey Perlman
Authentically Social Win Reno by Corey Perlman
Corey Perlman, Social Media Speaker and Consultant
 
Hinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and Philanthropy
Hinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and PhilanthropyHinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and Philanthropy
Hinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and Philanthropy
shiveshmani09
 
The APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 Edition
The APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 EditionThe APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 Edition
The APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 Edition
APCO
 
Bradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity Kit
Bradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity KitBradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity Kit
Bradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity Kit
JABradley1
 
Bruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational Wealth
Bruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational WealthBruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational Wealth
Bruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational Wealth
Bruce Lee Keebeck
 
Strategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptx
Strategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptxStrategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptx
Strategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptx
KumarSubrato2
 
catalog. for freight forwarding business
catalog. for freight forwarding businesscatalog. for freight forwarding business
catalog. for freight forwarding business
ILHAM GROUP INTERNATIONAL
 
Charles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment Executive
Charles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment ExecutiveCharles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment Executive
Charles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment Executive
Charles Nabit
 
The Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptx
The Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptxThe Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptx
The Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptx
Charles Cotter, PhD
 
2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx
2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx
2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx
jeronambayec5
 
McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....
McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....
McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....
SnowBall49
 
Windows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptx
Windows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptxWindows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptx
Windows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptx
WroffyTechnologies
 
Company Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdf
Company Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdfCompany Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdf
Company Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdf
RobertPhillips265023
 
NPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptx
NPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptxNPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptx
NPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptx
Nugurusaichandan
 
Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...
Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...
Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...
EkoInnovationCentre
 
The Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docx
The Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docxThe Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docx
The Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docx
Insolation Energy
 
The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...
The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...
The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...
home
 
Securiport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And Integrity
Securiport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And IntegritySecuriport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And Integrity
Securiport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And Integrity
Securiport Arouna Toure
 
Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025
Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025
Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025
SoluLab1231
 
Investment Opportunities in Semiconductor and Advanced Electronics Industries
Investment Opportunities in Semiconductor and Advanced Electronics IndustriesInvestment Opportunities in Semiconductor and Advanced Electronics Industries
Investment Opportunities in Semiconductor and Advanced Electronics Industries
Thailand Board of Investment North America
 
Hinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and Philanthropy
Hinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and PhilanthropyHinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and Philanthropy
Hinduja Brothers - Pioneers of Global Business and Philanthropy
shiveshmani09
 
The APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 Edition
The APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 EditionThe APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 Edition
The APCO Geopolitical Radar Q2 2025 Edition
APCO
 
Bradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity Kit
Bradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity KitBradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity Kit
Bradley_Jamelia_BSEB_PB1_2025-03 Personal Brand Identity Kit
JABradley1
 
Bruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational Wealth
Bruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational WealthBruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational Wealth
Bruce Lee Keebeck - Specializes In Multi-Generational Wealth
Bruce Lee Keebeck
 
Strategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptx
Strategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptxStrategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptx
Strategic_MANAGEMENT_OF_WALMART[1][1].pptx
KumarSubrato2
 
Charles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment Executive
Charles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment ExecutiveCharles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment Executive
Charles (Chuck) Nabit - Investment Executive
Charles Nabit
 
The Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptx
The Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptxThe Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptx
The Role of Data Analytics in Shaping Leadership Trends_ARL_27 March 2025.pptx
Charles Cotter, PhD
 
2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx
2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx
2.-Global-and-Philippine-Development.pptx
jeronambayec5
 
McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....
McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....
McDonalds-India-Preparing-to-Rule-the-Land-of-Maharajas_20250223_150202_0000....
SnowBall49
 
Windows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptx
Windows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptxWindows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptx
Windows Server 2025 known issues and notifications.pptx
WroffyTechnologies
 
Company Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdf
Company Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdfCompany Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdf
Company Profile & SWOT Analysis List.pdf
RobertPhillips265023
 
NPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptx
NPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptxNPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptx
NPA in Agricultural Loan -Agri Finance(1).pptx
Nugurusaichandan
 
Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...
Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...
Future-Proofing Businesses - How to Lead Digital Transformation in the Age of...
EkoInnovationCentre
 
The Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docx
The Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docxThe Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docx
The Rising Influence of Decentralized Energy Networks.docx
Insolation Energy
 
The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...
The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...
The Fastest Way to a Flourishing Community: Start growing your Skool communit...
home
 
Securiport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And Integrity
Securiport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And IntegritySecuriport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And Integrity
Securiport Arouna Toure - A Commitment To Transparency And Integrity
Securiport Arouna Toure
 
Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025
Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025
Top 10 Software Development Companies in USA 2025
SoluLab1231
 

internet trends 2019 presentation from KP

  • 2. INTERNET TRENDS 2019 Mary Meeker June 11 @ Code 2019 bondcap.com/report/it19
  • 3. 2 Internet Trends 2019 Internet Trends 2019 1) Users 2) E-Commerce + Advertising 3) Usage… 4) Freemium Business Models 5) Data Growth 6) …Usage 7) Work 8) Education 9) Immigration + USA Inc. 10) Healthcare 11) China (Provided by Hillhouse Capital)
  • 4. 3 Internet Trends 2019 Thanks Bond Partners Michael Brogan & Ansel Parikh helped steer ideas & did a lot of heavy lifting. Noah Knauf, Collin Ebert, Jesse Ellingworth, Everett Randle, Nancy Xiao, Daegwon Chae, Paul Vronsky & Juliet de Baubigny also dug in & were more than on call with help. Hillhouse Capital Liang Wu & colleagues’ contribution of the China section provides an overview of the world’s largest market of Internet users. Participants in Evolution of Internet Connectivity From creators to consumers who keep us on our toes 24x7 & the people who directly help us prepare the report. And, Kara & team, thanks for continuing to do what you do so well.
  • 5. 4 Internet Trends 2019 Context… We use data to tell stories of business-related trends we focus on. We hope others take the ideas, build on them & make them better. At 3.8B, the number of Internet users comprises more than half the world’s population. When markets reach mainstream, new growth is harder to find as evinced by declining new smartphone shipments in 2018. While E-Commerce continues to gain share vs. physical retail, growth rates are slowing. While Internet advertising growth is solid & innovation is healthy, there are areas where customer acquisition costs may be rising to unsustainable levels. While Internet user growth is slowing, global innovation & competition continue to drive product improvements, new types of usage & monetization – especially in areas of digital video, voice, wearables, on-demand + local services & traditionally underserved markets. Outside of USA, we focus on especially high growth & innovation in data-driven / direct fulfillment & financial services. We highlight massive global usage changes related to the evolution of images & interactive gaming as communications tools & the broad emergence of freemium businesses at scale. The rapid rise of gathered / analyzed digital data is often core to the holistic success of the fastest growing & most successful companies of our time around the world. Context-rich data can help businesses provide consumers with increasingly personalized products & services that can often be obtained at lower prices & delivered more efficiently. This, in turn, can drive higher customer satisfaction. Better data-driven tools can improve the ability for consumers to communicate directly & indirectly with businesses & regulators. Core constituents (consumers / businesses / regulators) are increasingly drinking from a data firehose & management challenges continue to rise for all parties. Broad awareness of challenges (& related vigorous / heated debates) can be the first step in driving change.
  • 6. 5 Internet Trends 2019 …Context Consumers are aware of concerns about Internet usage overload & are taking steps to reduce usage – leading USA-based Internet platforms have rolled out tools to help monitor usage & social media usage growth appears to be decelerating following a period of strong growth. Privacy & problematic content concerns are also top-of-mind & are following similar patterns. Owing to social media amplification, reveals / actions / reactions about events can occur quickly – resulting in both good & bad outcomes. In markets where online real-time rating systems exist, accountability can be improved vs. offline options as consumers & businesses interact directly while regulators can also benefit. Rapidly expanding connectivity has helped amplify voices of good & bad actors. This has brought new focus to an age-old challenge for regulators around the world – finding the most effective ways to amplify good & minimize bad, often resulting in different regional interpretations & strategies. As Internet systems become increasingly sophisticated, data-rich & mission critical, so has the opportunity for cyber attacks. We are in a new era of cyber security where technology issues are increasingly intermixed with international diplomacy & defense. We focus on the impact of the Internet on work (via on-demand services & remote options), education & healthcare – the materiality of current trends imply inflections are occurring. We update USA trending around government finances & the importance of immigration to the technology sector. The Hillhouse Capital team provides insights into China – the largest market of Internet users & a leader in innovation / scale.
  • 7. 6 Internet Trends 2019 INTERNET USERS = @ >50% GLOBAL PENETRATION… NEW GROWTH REMAINS HARDER TO FIND
  • 8. 7 Internet Trends 2019 Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia). Global Internet User Growth = Solid But Slowing +6% vs. +7% Y/Y 0% 9% 18% 0 2B 4B 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y/Y Growth (Red Line) Internet Users, Global (Blue Bar) Internet Users vs. Y/Y Growth
  • 9. 8 Internet Trends 2019 Global New Smartphone Unit Shipments = Declining -4% vs. 0% Y/Y Source: Katy Huberty @ Morgan Stanley (3/19), IDC. New Smartphone Unit Shipments vs. Y/Y Growth -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 0 0.4B 0.8B 1.2B 1.6B 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y/Y Growth (Red Line) New Smartphone Shipments, Global Android iOS Other 0%
  • 10. 9 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet Users = 3.8B >50% of Population 24% 51% 0% 35% 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Internet Penetration, Global Internet Penetration, 2018 Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
  • 11. 10 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet Users = Asia Pacific Leads in Users + Potential 89% 62% 32% 78% 48% 0 3B 6B North America South America & Carribean Africa & Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Population Internet Users Non-Internet Users Internet Users by Region, 2018 Asia Pacific (15%) Europe Africa & Middle East Latin America & Caribbean North America 53% of Global Internet Users 48% Internet User Penetration in Region 15% 78% 13% 32% 10% 62% 9% 89% Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
  • 12. 11 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet Users = China @ 21% of Total...India @ 12%...USA @ 8% 0 0.8B 1.6B Turkey France Nigeria Iran (I.R.) United Kingdom The Philippines Germany Mexico Russia Japan Brazil Indonesia United States India China Internet Users Non-Internet Users Internet Users – Top Countries, 2018 Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
  • 13. 12 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet Market Capitalization Leaders = USA Stable @ 18 of 30…China Stable @ 7 of 30 USA stable at 18 of 30 refers to the fact that 19 USA companies were in the top 30 using same parameters in 2018. China in 2018 = 8 of 30. Source: CapitaIIQ data collected 6/7/19. Note: % change only applies to companies that were publicly traded on 6/7/16, private valuations not taken into account. Reflects a global list of publicly traded companies, some companies (e.g., Meituan Dianping) derive the majority of their revenue from one country. Companies selected are considered to be ‘pureplay’ Internet companies that do not derive a significant portion of revenues / profits from other business lines. Example companies that would be included otherwise = Reliance Industries (Refining), AT&T (Telecom), & Naspers (Television). Rank 2019 Company Region Market Cap Value ($B) % Change 6/7/19B 6/7/16B 1 Microsoft USA $1,007B $410B +146% 2 Amazon USA 888 343 +159% 3 Apple USA 875 540 +62% 4 Alphabet USA 741 497 +49% 5 Facebook USA 495 340 +46% 6 Alibaba China 402 195 +106% 7 Tencent China 398 206 +93% 8 Netflix USA 158 43 +266% 9 Adobe USA 136 50 +174% 10 PayPal USA 134 46 +190% 11 Salesforce USA 125 56 +123% 12 Booking.com USA 77 67 +15% 13 Uber USA 75 -- -- 14 Recruit Holdings Japan 52 20 +167% 15 ServiceNow USA 51 12 +316% 16 Workday USA 48 16 +197% 17 Meituan Dianping China 44 -- -- 18 JD.com China 39 32 +22% 19 Baidu China 38 60 (36%) 20 Activision Blizzard USA 35 28 +25% 21 Shopify Canada 34 2 +1,297% 22 NetEase China 33 23 +44% 23 eBay USA 33 28 +19% 24 Atlassian Australia 32 5 +509% 25 MercadoLibre Argentina 30 6 +388% 26 Twitter USA 29 11 +173% 27 Square USA 29 3 +808% 28 Electronic Arts USA 29 23 +25% 29 Xiaomi China 28 -- -- 30 Spotify Sweden 25 -- -- Total $6,119 $3,064
  • 14. 13 Internet Trends 2019 Global Market Capitalization Leaders = USA Stable @ 23 of 30…Technology Stable @ 9 of 30 USA stable at 23 of 30 refers to the fact that 21 USA companies were in the top 30 using same parameters in 2018. Technology in 2018 = 10 of 30. Source: CapitaIIQ data collected 6/7/19. Reflects a global list of publicly traded companies, some companies (e.g., ICBC) derive the majority of their revenue from one country. Rank 2019 Company Sector Region Market Cap Value ($B) % Change 6/7/19B 6/7/16B 1 Microsoft Technology USA $1,007B $410B +146% 2 Amazon Technology USA 888 343 +159% 3 Apple Technology USA 875 540 +62% 4 Alphabet Technology USA 741 497 +49% 5 Berkshire Hathaway Financial Services USA 505 350 +44% 6 Facebook Technology USA 495 340 +46% 7 Alibaba Technology China 402 195 +106% 8 Tencent Technology China 398 206 +93% 9 Visa Financial Services USA 372 192 +94% 10 Johnson & Johnson Healthcare USA 368 318 +16% 11 JPMorgan Financial Services USA 354 239 +48% 12 Exxon Mobil Energy USA 316 371 (15%) 13 Nestlé Food / Beverages Switzerland 306 230 +33% 14 Walmart Retail USA 303 221 +37% 15 ICBC Financial Services China 285 224 +27% 16 Procter & Gamble Home Goods USA 273 220 +24% 17 Mastercard Financial Services USA 271 106 +156% 18 Bank of America Financial Services USA 262 149 +76% 19 Royal Dutch Shell Energy Netherlands 259 198 +31% 20 Samsung Technology South Korea 249 166 +50% 21 Disney Media USA 248 160 +55% 22 Cisco Technology USA 239 146 +64% 23 Pfizer Pharmaceuticals USA 238 212 +12% 24 AT&T Telecom USA 237 242 (2%) 25 Verizon Telecom USA 237 207 +15% 26 UnitedHealth Healthcare USA 235 131 +79% 27 Roche Healthcare Switzerland 233 224 +4% 28 Chevron Energy USA 231 191 +21% 29 Coca-Cola Food / Beverages USA 220 196 +12% 30 Home Depot Retail USA 217 161 +35% Total $11,264 $7,385
  • 15. 14 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet Market Capitalization Leader Revenue Growth = Slowing +11% vs. +13% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4) 0% 15% 30% $0 $200B $400B Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Global Internet Leaders – Revenue vs. Y/Y Growth Source: CapitaIIQ. Revenue from Microsoft / Amazon / Apple / Alphabet / Facebook / Tencent / Alibaba / Netflix / Adobe / PayPal / Salesforce.com / Booking.com / Recruit Holdings / ServiceNow / Workday / JD.com / Baidu / Activision Blizzard / Shopify / NetEase / eBay / Atlassian / MercadoLibre / Electronic Arts / Twitter / Square. Note: *Uber, Meituan Dianping, Xiaomi and Spotify which had recent IPOs that did not provide detailed financials from Q1:15-Q4:16 that are necessary to illustrate the Y/Y growth rate & are therefore excluded. Due to their revenue scale relative to the cumulative group, they have minimal impact on overall growth rate. Revenue (Blue Bar) Y/Y Growth (Red Line)
  • 16. 15 Internet Trends 2019 Global Market Capitalization Leader Revenue Growth = Slowing +2% vs. +7% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4) -16% 0% 16% $0 $600B $1,200B Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Global Leaders – Revenue vs. Y/Y Growth Source: CapitaIIQ. Revenue from Microsoft / Amazon / Apple / Alphabet / Berkshire Hathaway / Facebook / Tencent / Alibaba / Visa / Johnson & Johnson / JPMorgan / Exxon Mobil / Walmart / ICBC / Procter & Gamble / Bank of America / Samsung / Disney / Cisco / Pfizer / AT&T / Verizon / UnitedHealth / MasterCard / Chevron / Coca-Cola / Home Depot. Nestle & Royal Dutch Shell quarterly revenue excluded due to bi-annual earnings releases. Revenue (Blue Bar) Y/Y Growth (Red Line) 0%
  • 17. 16 Internet Trends 2019 E-COMMERCE + ONLINE ADVERTISING = SOLID… BUT SLOWING GROWTH
  • 19. 18 Internet Trends 2019 E-Commerce Growth = Solid +12.4% vs. +12.1% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4) E-Commerce Sales vs. Y/Y Growth, USA Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database. Note: Historic data (Pre-2016) adjusted / back-casted in 2017 by USA Census Bureau to better align with Annual Retail Trade + Monthly Retail Trade Survey data. Seasonally adjusted. 0% 10% 20% $0 $70B $140B Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 E-Commerce Sales (Blue Bar) Y/Y Growth (Red Line) 2010 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2018 2019
  • 20. 19 Internet Trends 2019 -10% 0% 10% $0 $400B $800B Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Physical Retail Growth = Solid +2.0% vs. +1.6% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4) Physical Retail Sales vs. Y/Y Growth, USA Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database. Note: Physical Retail includes all retail sales excluding food services, motor vehicles / auto parts & fuel. 0% Physical Retail Sales, USA (Blue Bar) Y/Y Growth (Red Line) 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 2019
  • 21. 20 Internet Trends 2019 E-Commerce Share = Gains Continue @ 15% of Retail vs. 14% Y/Y E-Commerce as % of Retail Sales, USA 0% 8% 16% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 E-Commerce Share Source: USA Census Bureau, St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database. Note: 15% = Annualized share. Penetration calculated by dividing E-Commerce sales by “Core” Retail Sales (excluding food services, motor vehicles / auto parts, gas stations & fuel). All figures are seasonally adjusted. Per US Census Bureau, E-Commerce is ~10% of total retails sales in Q1:19, including out-of-scope channels such as gas stations, fuel dealers, etc. 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 2019
  • 23. 22 Internet Trends 2019 8% 16% 43% 25% 8% 27% 11% 43% 0% 25% 50% Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile % of Time Spent in Media / Advertising Spending, 2010, USA 0.5% Media Time vs. Advertising Spending = Mobile @ Equilibrium (2018)…Desktop (2015) Source: Internet & Mobile advertising spend based on IAB & PwC data for full year 2018 & 2010. Print advertising spend based on Magna Global estimates for full year 2018 & 2010. Print includes newspaper & magazine. Time spent share data based on eMarketer (10/18). Excludes out-of-home, video game & cinema advertising. % Time Spent in Media vs. % Advertising Spending 2010 3% 12% 34% 18% 33% 7% 8% 34% 0% 25% 50% Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile Print Radio TV Desktop Mobile 2018 19% 18% 33% % of Time Spent in Media / Advertising Spending, 2018, USA Ad Spend Time Spent
  • 24. 23 Internet Trends 2019 Internet Ad Spending (Annual)= Accelerated +22% vs. +21% Y/Y Source: IAB / PWC Internet 2018 Advertising Report (5/19). Internet Advertising Spend 0% 15% 30% 0 $60B $120B 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y/Y Growth (Red Line) Internet Advertising Spend, USA (Bars) Desktop Advertising Mobile Advertising Y/Y Growth
  • 25. 24 Internet Trends 2019 Internet Ad Revenue (Quarterly – Leading USA Platforms) = Decelerating +20% vs. +29% (Y/Y – Q1 vs. Q4) Leading USA-Based Online Ad Platform Revenue, Global Source: Company public releases & Morgan Stanley estimates. Note: Includes Google / Facebook / Twitter / Amazon / Snapchat / Pinterest. 0% 20% 40% $0 $30B $60B Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Revenue (Blue Bar) Y/Y Growth (Red Line)
  • 26. 25 Internet Trends 2019 Internet Ad Platforms = Google + Facebook Lead But Others Gaining Share Select USA-Based Advertising Platform Revenue, Global Source: Company public releases & Morgan Stanley estimates. $0 $20B $40B Google +1.4x Facebook +1.9x Amazon / Twitter / Snap / Pinterest +2.6x
  • 27. 26 Internet Trends 2019 Internet Ad Buying = Programmatic Gains vs. Direct Continue… Negatively Impacting Pricing 10% 62% 0% 40% 80% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Programmatic Buying – % Digital Display Advertising, Global Source: Publicis / Zenith 2018 Programmatic Marketing Forecast. Note: Programmatic refers to ads bought both via real-time bidding & non real-time algorithmically-driven ad purchases. Does not include non-display advertising (e.g., Search) % Display Advertising Spend Programmatic, Global
  • 28. 27 Internet Trends 2019 Ad Share Gain Drivers = Better Targeting + New Creative + Commerce + High-Relevance Facebook Targeting Audience Customization YouTube Machine Learning Automatically Time-Edited Clips Twitter High-Relevance Promoted Tweets Pinterest Commerce Shoppable Catalogs Source: Facebook / Google / Pinterest / Twitter
  • 29. 28 Internet Trends 2019 Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) = Rising in Highly Competitive / Capitalized Sectors $0 $30 $60 1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 Cost Per User Activation – Mobile Finance Apps, Global per Liftoff Source: Liftoff’s 2019 / 2018 Mobile Finance App Report. Note: Report draws from internal Liftoff Data from 2/1/17 to 3/31/19, spanning 19B+ ad impressions across 5MM+ App installs, 270MM+ clicks & 3MM activations / registrations. Data focused on North America, Europe, Middle East, Africa & Asia Pacific. Note: Activation = Adding & depositing funds to an account, activating a spending card, opening an equities position or starting a paid subscription. Average Cost per User Activation, Global
  • 30. 29 Internet Trends 2019 Reality = CAC Can’t Exceed LTV for Very Long CAC = Customer Acquisition Cost. LTV = Lifetime Value.
  • 31. 30 Internet Trends 2019 Effective + Efficient Marketing = One’s Own Product + Happy Customers + Recommendations
  • 32. 31 Internet Trends 2019 Effective + Efficient Marketing = Can Be Free Trial / Tier 26% 29% 38% 42% 0% 25% 50% Good User Experience Access to Exclusive Content Content Library Free Trial Free Trial / Tier 42% Online Streaming – Reasons For Trying New Service Source: 2BrightCove / YouGov survey of 10,502 adults in USA, UK, France, Australia, Germany, Canada & UAE, 9/18.
  • 33. 32 Internet Trends 2019 Happy Customers… Spotify = Free User Conversion to Paid Subscribers… Source: Spotify releases & Morgan Stanley estimates of LTV & SAC. Barry McCarthy @ Spotify Investor Day (3/18). Note: Morgan Stanley estimates LTV by calculating the value of a subscriber (including advertising revenue they generate before they upgrade to a paid user) accounting for gross margin & churn. Subscriber acquisition cost calculated by dividing sales & marketing spend in a relevant period by the number of new subscribers in the same period. …Rising LTV / Subscriber Acquisition Cost Ratio Free Ad-Supported Product… 1.5x 3.0x 0x 2x 4x 2015 2016 2017 2018 Lifetime Value of Premium Subscribers (Adjusted for Advertising Revenue from Free Users) / Subscriber Acquisition Cost Our freemium model accounts for ~60% of our gross added premium subscribers... the ad-supported service is a subsidy program that offsets costs of new subscriber acquisition. Developing a better user experience produces by far the most viral effect & impact when investing in growth. Engagement drives conversion from free consumption to paid subscription. Barry McCarthy – CFO, Spotify, 3/18 Morgan Stanley LTV:CAC Estimate
  • 34. 33 Internet Trends 2019 …Happy Customers… Zoom = Free User Conversion to Paid Subscribers …High LTV / CAC Ratio* Free to Join, When Paid User Hosts… 3.7x 3.7x 0x 3x 6x FQ1:19 FQ2:19 FQ3:19 FQ4:19 FQ1:20 Lifetime Value to Customer Acquisition Cost Ratio FY = January ..we really want to get customers to test our product… It’s really hard to get customers to try Zoom without a freemium product... We make our freemium product work so well… If they like our product, very soon they are going to pay for the subscription. The most important thing is to make sure the existing customer [is] happy rather than chasing after new prospects. Our NPS is in the 67-69 range vs. our peers in the 20’s… We do not want to spend money on [the] marketing side to generate leads. Eric Yuan – Founder / CEO, Zoom, 8/17 Source: Interview with SaaStr (8/17). Zoom S-1. Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimates of LTV & CAC. Note: *Goldman Sachs Investment Research calculated LTV as the value of $1 of Annual Recurring Revenue, discounted for GAAP gross margin, Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimated Gross Churn & an 11% assumed discount rate. CAC is calculated as the amount of Sales & Marketing expense in a relevant period, divided by the gross new Annual Recurring Revenue added in the same period. Goldman Sachs Investment Research LTV:CAC Estimate
  • 35. 34 Internet Trends 2019 Effective + Efficient Marketing = Can Be Recommendations 10% 11% 12% 22% 22% 23% 0% 15% 30% Flexibility to Cancel Like Subscription Model Like the Product Financial Incentive Try Something New Reccomended by Someone Recommended by Someone 23% E-Commerce – Reasons for Trying New Subscription Box Source: McKinsey Research on E-Commerce Consumers (2/18). Note: Based on online survey from November 8 to 12, 2017, with responses from more than 5,093 participants in the United States. Of those, 4,057 (80 percent) were online shoppers, defined as people who had spent at least $25 online in the past month. Of those, 607 (15 percent) had subscribed to at least one service over the past 12 months.
  • 36. 35 Internet Trends 2019 Happy Customers… Stitch Fix = Recommendations Drive Growth …Stitch Fix Active Clients Data-Driven / Personalized Recommendations… The better way to [sell clothing] is through personalization – get to know product, get to know people & generate really good recommendations… What's really special about Stitch Fix is that 100% of what we sell is based on recommendations. We have over 4,000 stylists…what makes them successful is listening, empathy & delivering what the client wants & doing that without judgment…Our business is about helping people feel their best, not necessarily selling the big high-end fashion trends. Katrina Lake – Founder / CEO, Stitch Fix, 6/18 Source: Katrina Lake interview @ JPMorgan Technology, Media & Communications Conference (6/18). Stitch Fix SEC Filings. Note: Active Client refers to a client who has checked out at least 1 recommended ‘Fix’ in the past 12 months. 0 1.5MM 3.0MM 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 Stitch Fix Active Clients
  • 38. 37 Internet Trends 2019 TBD = Impact on Ad Targeting… Privacy Changes …privacy [concerns] are a headwind for [Facebook] in 2019. It's one of the factors that's contributing to our expected deceleration of revenue growth throughout the year. You've got regulatory – which was GDPR in 2018… the regulatory arc will be longer-term in playing out… Platforms like iOS are making bigger pushes in privacy & that has the potential impact… then changes that we're making ourselves… we've elected to rollout GDPR-type controls globally… later this year, we'll be launching Clear History, which will also affect our ability to do third-party targeting. David Wehner – CFO, Facebook, 2/19 Source: David Wehner speaking at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media, Telecom Conference, 2/26/2019. TBD = To be Determined
  • 39. 38 Internet Trends 2019 TBD = Impact on Ad Targeting… Digital TV-Based Ads (Aided by In-Hand Mobiles) …Creating Opportunities for Better Ad Experiences Multi-Platform Data Improves Relevancy… Xandr Revenue vs. Growth Y/Y Source: AT&T / Xandr Releases. Nielsen Q2:18 Total Audience Report (12/18). Note: Survey based on Nielsen National USA Panel data. Note: 2018 USA Mid-term elections drove above-average television advertising spend on Xandr platform. 0% 30% 60% $0 $300MM $600MM Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 Xandr Revenue (Blue Bars) Y/Y Growth (Red Line) Nielsen Audience Report (USA) 88% = Use a Second Digital Device While Watching TV 71% = Look Up Content Related To Content They Are Watching 41% = Message Friends / Family About Content They Are Watching
  • 40. 39 Internet Trends 2019 INTERNET USAGE = SOLID GROWTH… DRIVEN BY INVESTMENT + INNOVATION
  • 42. 41 Internet Trends 2019 Digital Media Usage = Accelerating +7% vs. +5% Y/Y Source: eMarketer 9/14 (2008-2010), eMarketer 4/15 (2011-2013), eMarketer 4/17 (2014-2015), eMarketer 10/18 (2016-2018). Note: Other connected devices include OTT & game consoles. Mobile includes smartphone & tablet. Usage includes both home & work for consumers 18+. Non deduped defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking. Daily Hours Spent with Digital Media per Adult User, USA 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.3 0 4 8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Hours Spent per Day, USA Other Connected Devices Desktop / Laptop Mobile
  • 44. 43 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet / Technology Businesses = Investment Remains Robust
  • 45. 44 Internet Trends 2019 Global USA-Listed Technology IPO Issuance & Global Technology Venture Capital Financing Investment (Public + Private) Into Technology Companies = High for Two Decades Technology IPO & Private Financing, Global Source: Morgan Stanley Equity Capital Markets, *2019YTD figure as of 6/7/19, Thomson ONE. All global USA-listed technology IPOs over $30MM, data per Dealogic, Bloomberg, & CapitalIQ. 2012: Facebook ($16B IPO) = 75% of 2012 IPO $ value. 2014: Alibaba ($25B IPO) = 69% of 2014 IPO $ value. 2017: Snap ($4B IPO) = 34% of 2017 $ value. 2019: Uber ($8B IPO) = 56% of 2019YTD $ value. NASDAQ Composite 0 4,500 9,000 $0 $100B $200B 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014** Technology Private Financing Technology IPO NASDAQ 2019YTD*
  • 46. 45 Internet Trends 2019 Internet / Technology Businesses = USA-Based Innovation Remains Robust…
  • 47. 46 Internet Trends 2019 Device Time = Mobile > TV Television & Mobile Daily Time Spent (Non-Deduped), USA Source: eMarketer (10/18). Usage includes both home & work for consumers 18+. Non-deduped defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking. Updated from original 4/18 release in 10/18 by eMarketer 20 226 266 216 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 0 150 300 Mobile Television Average Daily Time Spent (Minutes)
  • 48. 47 Internet Trends 2019 Online Platform Time = YouTube + Instagram Gaining Most 31% 30% 14% 15% 13% 19% 3% 4% 4% 5% 1% 2% 9% 11% 25% 23% 23% 25% 22% 27% 0% 32% Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 YouTube Facebook Instagram Facebook Messenger Twitter WhatsApp WeChat Snapchat Pinterest Twitch % Internet Users Using Select Platforms > 1x per Day, Global* Source: Global Web Index Survey of 50K+ Global Internet users aged 16-64 (3/2017-12/2018). Note: WeChat is displayed as "Weixin" in China. *Countries surveyed include major Internet populations – Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UK, USA, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam. Toutiao estimate = ~4% of Internet users using Douyin in 2018….Not included owing to lack of trend data & regulatory action in period.
  • 49. 48 Internet Trends 2019 Video Time = Digital +2x in Five Years @ 28% of Total (vs. TV) 7% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 25% 28% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 200 400 Digital Video Television Video Watching Daily Minutes – Digital vs. TV, USA Source: eMarketer (10/18). Usage includes both home & work for consumers 18+. Non de-duplicated defined as time spent with each medium individually, regardless of multitasking. Average Daily Time Spent (Minutes), USA 4% 4%
  • 50. 49 Internet Trends 2019 Video Time (Short-Form – Facebook Platform) = 1.5B DAUs + ~2x in One Year Daily Active Users, Global Source: Facebook (8/18,12/18). Daily Active Users (DAU) = Users that interact with a Story daily. Vertical segments of chart = owing to first reported DAU metric for each product. *Not de-duped across platforms. Daily Active Users, Global* 0 0.8B 1.6B 4/17 10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19 Instagram Stories Facebook / Messenger Stories WhatsApp Status Facebook Stories
  • 51. 50 Internet Trends 2019 Voice = 70MM Podcast Listener MAUs + ~2x in Four Years… Podcast Listener MAUs, USA 22MM 70MM 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 0 40MM 80MM Millions Source: The Infinite Dial 2019 by Edison Research & Triton (2/19). National survey of 1,500 people ages 12+. The estimated share of USA respondents is the n multiplied by USA population over the age 13, per USA Census Bureau. Apple. Podcasts – Most Downloaded Apple Podcasts, 2018, USA 1) The Daily The New York Times 2) The Joe Rogan Experience Joe Rogan 3) Stuff You Should Know iHeartMedia 4) Fresh Air National Public Radio 5) The Dave Ramsey Show Dave Ramsey 6) My Favorite Murder Exactly Right 7) TED Talks Daily TED 8) Up First National Public Radio 9) The Ben Shapiro Show The Daily Wire 10) Pod Save America Crooked Media Monthly Podcast Listeners, USA
  • 52. 51 Internet Trends 2019 …Voice = 47MM Amazon Echo Base + ~2x in One Year Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners LLC (Echo install base, 2/18), Various media outlets including Geekwire, TechCrunch, & Wired (Echo skills, 4/19) Amazon Echo Installed Base 0 30MM 60MM Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Installed Base, USA 0 50K 100K 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Number of Skills Amazon Echo Skills 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
  • 53. 52 Internet Trends 2019 Wearables = 52MM Users + ~2x in Four Years Wearable Users, USA Source: eMarketer (11/18). Users = Monthly Active adults 18+ years old who wear accessories or clothing embedded with electronics, software, or sensors that have the ability to connect to the Internet (via built-in connectivity or tethering), which in turn collects & exchanges data with a manufacturer, operator, or other connected devices. 25MM 52MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 30MM 60MM Wearable Users, USA
  • 54. 53 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand = 56MM Consumers + ~2x in Two Years On-Demand Consumers, USA Source: National Technology Readiness Survey (4/18). Note: authored by Rockbridge Associates, Inc. & A. Parasuraman, & is co- sponsored by the Center for Excellence in Service, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. The study is conducted online among a representative sample of consumers in a national panel, & represents the views of U.S. adults ages 18 & older. The sample size was 1,032 in 2016 & 1,004 in 2017. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. 2018 figures are estimates. On-Demand Products / Services – Consumer Spend, 2017, USA $0 $15B $30B Other Health & Beauty Food Delivery Housing Transportation Online Marketplaces Consumer Spend, 2017, USA 25MM 56MM 0 30MM 60MM 2016 2017 2018 On-Demand Consumers, USA
  • 55. 54 Internet Trends 2019 Local = 236K Nextdoor Active Neighborhoods + ~2x in Two Years 0 125K 250K 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Active Neighborhoods, Global Active Neighborhoods, Global Local Business Recommendations = 29MM, +71% Y/Y Source: Nextdoor (5/19). 29MM = Cumulative local business recommendations on the platform, up 71% Y/Y vs. 17MM in 5/18.
  • 56. 55 Internet Trends 2019 Underserved Population = Square Seller Base Growing… 28% Points Faster in Lowest vs. Highest Income MSAs, USA* = Loans (2014-Q1:19) = Women-Owned Businesses = Minority-Owned Businesses = Average Loan Size 0% 15% 30% 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Square (5/19). * Per Federal Reserve’s “Survey of Terms of Business Lending”, Aug 2017 Note: MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Active sellers are defined as those who have accepted five or more payments within the last 12 months. Square Capital Loans only available to Active Square Sellers. Data sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s 2017 report on “Annual Personal Income by Metropolitan Statistical Areas”. From 2014-2018, the adoption growth rate of the bottom 25 MSAs was on average 1.22x that of the top, demonstrating the utility & relevance of payment technology in less traditional areas. Growth in Number of Active Square Sellers Difference Between 25 Lowest Income & 25 Highest Income USA MSAs* Square Capital Data % Point Difference in Growth Rate (~18x Smaller Than Average Small Business Administration Loans)* $4.5B 58% 35% $6K
  • 57. 56 Internet Trends 2019 …Internet / Technology Businesses = Non-USA-Based Innovation Remains Robust… Data-Driven / Direct Fulfillment Growing Rapidly…
  • 58. 57 Internet Trends 2019 Source: Pinduoduo SEC filings (2018), Q4:18 Earnings Call (3/19) & Morgan Stanley. Note: An active buyer is a buyer who has completed at least one transaction in the past 12 months. Group Discovery / Buying We call it consumer-to-manufacturer, where we understand the users' needs first & enable upstream providers, be it farmers, manufacturers, etc. to produce appropriate products for our users. This is different from how the current system works, where upstream producers design, manufacture & sell without necessarily being in tune with the changing needs of their targeted users. As we add more users to the network & also gain more data points through their increasing interaction with our platform, we can further refine our engine to deliver an even better user experience that keeps up with our users' evolving preferences. Pinduoduo – Q4:18 Earnings Call, 3/19 Pinduoduo China (Pinduoduo) = Connecting Consumer Preferences & Manufacturers… 443MM Buyers + ~2x in Five Quarters Active Buyers, China Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 0 250MM 500MM Pinduoduo Active Buyers, China 2017 2018 2019
  • 59. 58 Internet Trends 2019 Active Merchants, China Source: Meituan Dianping Releases (2018-2019) Note: An active merchant is a merchant who has completed at least one transaction, purchased online marketing services, processed a payment through Meituan Dianping’s service, or generated an order through Meituan Dianping’s ERP system. Fulfillment 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 3MM 6MM Thousands Meituan Dianping Active Merchants Meituan Dianping China (Meituan Dianping) = Connecting Consumers & Local Businesses… ~6MM Merchants + ~2x in Two Years Traditionally, local merchants in China – mostly micro & small businesses – have very few marketing channels available to them. We have become the go-to platform for local search & consumer service discovery. Based on our data analytics, we leveraged user search queries to connect them with high-quality local merchants who match their preference. We are able to help merchants reach a vast quantity of potential consumers with a low upfront cost & high conversion rates. Xing Wang – Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, Meituan Dianping, 3/19
  • 60. 59 Internet Trends 2019 Source: Rappi (6/19). 5/15 5/16 5/17 5/18 5/19 0 5MM 10MM Millions Monthly Orders, Latin America Digital Delivery Platform Rappi Latin America (Rappi) = Digitizing Delivery… 8MM Orders + ~2x in Four Months Monthly Rappi Orders, Latin America Latin America has a great delivery culture. Cities are chaotic, delivery was super manual & not all stores offered it — there was plenty of inefficiency & high costs. We thought: what if we digitized this ecosystem & started to deliver anything in under 30 minutes for less than a dollar? Simon Borrero, Sebastian Meija, Felipe Villanmarin, Andres Bilbao, Guillermo Plaza – Co-Founders, 6/19
  • 61. 60 Internet Trends 2019 Indonesia (Tokopedia) = Improving Product Delivery Across 17K Islands… ~6MM Merchants + ~2x in One Year 0 3MM 6MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 35% 70% Merchants vs. Same / Next Day Deliveries, Indonesia Source: Nikkei Asian Review (2/19). Tokopedia (4/19). *2019YTD = As of 4/19. Note: A registered merchant defined as an enterprise with listing on Tokopedia. 2 Same-Day Delivery Registered Merchants, Indonesia (Blue Bar) Tokopedia Same / Next Day Deliveries % of Total (Red Line) 2019YTD* When we look at sales data... people from [one island] sometimes don’t want to buy products from sellers on [other islands]. We thought – what if we can [give] every business that joins us…a warehouse everywhere in Indonesia – every product bought on Tokopedia [could] be delivered same-day. William Tanuwijaya – Co-Founder & CEO, Tokopedia, 2/19
  • 62. 61 Internet Trends 2019 Gross Merchandise Value, Southeast Asia Source: Sea Limited Q1:19 Earnings (2/19). Goldman Sachs Investment Research . Sea Limited operates commerce in Malaysia, Singapore, The Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia & Vietnam. Mobile / Social Shopping Shopee's ability to grow rapidly over a short period of time is a testament to its focus on building a mobile-centric, socially engaging marketplace with emphasis on high margin products from a highly diverse seller base. …Shopee has combined its marketplace offering with integrated payments, logistics infrastructure & a comprehensive set of services. Forrest Li – CEO, SEA Limited, 2/19 Sea Limited / Shopee Southeast Asia (Shopee) = Mobile-First Social Commerce… $10B in Gross Merchandise Value + ~2x in One Year $0 $6B $12B 2016 2017 2018 Gross E-Commerce Merchandise Value
  • 63. 62 Internet Trends 2019 Wireless Subscribers + Offline Stores, India 0 6K 12K FY17 FY18 FY19 0 250MM 500MM Thousands Source: Reliance Annual Report & Shareholder Meeting (7/18) Connectivity + Retail Jio Wireless Internet Subscribers (Blue Bar) Physical Retail Locations (Red Line) FY = March Reliance Jio India (Reliance Jio) = Expanding Offline Access to E-Commerce… 307MM Subscribers + ~2x in One Year… We are creating a hybrid, online-to-offline commerce platform by integrating Reliance Retail's physical marketplace with Jio's digital infrastructure & services. This platform will bring together 350MM customer footfalls at Reliance Retail stores, 307MM Jio connectivity customers & 30MM small merchants all over India who provide the last-mile physical market connectivity. Mukesh Ambani – Chairman, Reliance, 7/18
  • 64. 63 Internet Trends 2019 …India (Reliance Jio) = Broad Base of Jio Services for Consumers… Data Usage + ~2x in One Year FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 0 9EB 18EB Thousands Data Usage, India Annual Data Usage of Jio Network (Exabytes) Source: Jio Releases & Morgan Stanley. Note: 1 petabyte = 1MM gigabytes. 1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes. Full Suite Apps Music…Movies…Television…News… Chat…Finance…Fashion...Security… Storage…Data Transfer FY = March Reliance Jio
  • 65. 64 Internet Trends 2019 …Internet / Technology Businesses = Non-USA-Based Innovation Remains Robust… Data-Driven / Direct Financial Services Growing Rapidly
  • 66. 65 Internet Trends 2019 China (Alipay) = Broad Online / Offline Financial Services... 1B Users + ~2x in Two Years 2/16 2/17 2/18 2/19 0 600MM 1,200MM Annual Active Users, Global Alipay Payment Annual Active Users Alipay Source: Alibaba Releases. Alibaba Earnings Call transcript (2/18) Payments / Financial Services Alibaba has the most comprehensive ecosystem of commerce platforms, logistics & payment to support the digital transformation of the retail sector. Ant Financial / Alipay is not only China's #1 mobile payments platform, but it is also a provider of financial services such as loans, wealth management & insurance products to hundreds of millions of consumers & millions of small businesses on the Alibaba platform. Joe Tsai – Executive Vice Chairman, Alibaba, 2/18
  • 67. 66 Internet Trends 2019 Users, South Korea Source: Toss. Korea JoongAng Daily Interview with SG Lee (3/19) Payments / Financial Services A persistent problem in Korea has been the lack of mid-level interest-rate loans. The reason for this is because there hasn’t been adequate credit evaluation on filers with mid-level credit scores or small business owners. Data from the Toss mobile payment platform & its partners will help make better credit judgments on those filers when they are seeking loans. SG Lee – Co-Founder & CEO, Toss, 3/19 Toss 0 6MM 12MM 2/17 8/17 2/18 8/18 2/19 Toss Users, South Korea South Korea (Toss) = Digital Payments / Financial Services… ~12MM Users + ~2x in One Year
  • 68. 67 Internet Trends 2019 Europe (Revolut) = Personalized Banking… 4MM Users + ~2x in Ten Months 10/15 4/16 10/16 4/17 10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19 0 2.5MM 5.0MM Thousands Users, Global Source: Revolut Releases (2015-2019). Mobile Industry Eye Interview (7/18) Money Transfer / Banking Revolut Revolut Users, Global Personalization with the help of data / technology will allow people to have all their [financial] needs covered & what’s more – they will be able to choose all those setting themselves. We’re also heavily investing in data science & engineering to automate, accelerate & increase the quality of these decisions. Nikolay Storonsky – Co-Founder & CEO, Revolut, 11/18
  • 69. 68 Internet Trends 2019 Brazil (Nubank) = Banking / Consumer Credit… ~9MM Unique Customers + ~2x in One Year Total Unique Customers, Brazil Banking / Credit Nubank 0 5MM 10MM 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 Source: Nubank (5/19) Nubank is the largest purely digital bank offering financial services for Brazil, including no fee credit cards, savings accounts (NuConta), P2P money transfer, bill payment, debit cards, salary account portability & a rewards program with real-time benefits. Nubank also offers highly personalized loans at low prices owing to Nubank’s data-driven direct customer relationship. Nubank – 5/19 Nubank Unique Customers, Brazil
  • 70. 69 Internet Trends 2019 Annual Transactions, Latin America Source: MercadoLibre (5/19), Goldman Sachs Investment Research. Latin America (MercadoLibre) = E-Commerce-Driven Digital Payments… 389MM Transactions + ~2x in Two Years 0 200MM 400MM 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 MercadoPago Transactions, Latin America Marketplace / MercadoPago Payments MercadoLibre We continue to grow strongly & see tremendous potential in MercadoPago. Off-marketplace transactions already surpassed marketplace transactions. This trend is compounded by our strong offline initiatives: building out our mobile POS network & MercadoPago’s wallet-enabled payments services. Beyond payments, we are also seeing great adoption of our Asset Management & Credits products. These products facilitate access to financial services to millions of Latin Americans who are either unbanked or underbanked. Pedro Arnt – CFO, MercadoLibre, 5/19
  • 71. 70 Internet Trends 2019 GrabPay Transaction Value, Southeast Asia GrabPay Only 27% of adults in Southeast Asia have bank accounts. Not having a banking history means that a consumer is invisible to traditional financial institutions - no access to capital to grow businesses or pay for houses. By launching GrabPay on top of Grab’s ride-sharing platform, Grab’s millions of users have access to financial services that they could not access via traditional banks & lenders. Reuben Lai – Senior Managing Director, Grab Financial Group, 5/19 Grab 1.0x 2.5x 4.0x Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 GrabPay Transaction Value Indexed to Q1:18, Southeast Asia Source: Grab Financial Group (3/18-5/19). Southeast Asia (Grab) = Ride Share-Driven Digital Payments… Transaction Value + ~4x in One Year
  • 73. 72 Internet Trends 2019 Images = Oldest Form of Transportable Communication 40K Years Ago = Oldest Known Image… Painting, Indonesia 5K Years Ago = Oldest Known Text… Cuneiform, Mesopotamia 131 Years Ago = Oldest Known Moving Image… Video, United Kingdom Source: Maxime Aubert, Griffith University, Wikimedia, National Science Museum, London.
  • 74. 73 Internet Trends 2019 For Centuries… People Have Learned to Write & Share Words… Offline & One-to-One / Some…
  • 75. 74 Internet Trends 2019 Communication via Text (+ Numbers) = Foundational Source: Wikimedia Commons, Google For Education, Boston City Archives Note: 1800s chosen as date of ’Modern Public Schools’ based on Byrk et al.’s ‘Catholic Schools in the Common Good.’ Though public funds had been previously used to fund primary education, reforms in USA cities during the 1800s were the first to establish open, secular education, similar to contemporary ‘public schools’ Makes Ideas Transportable… Martin Luther’s 95 Theses (1500s) …Simplifies Concepts… Robert Recorde’s invention of ‘=’ (1500s) …Enables Learning Modern ‘Public’ Primary Schools (1800s – Present)
  • 76. 75 Internet Trends 2019 …For Two Decades… People Ramping Image + Video Creation / Sharing… Online & Often One-to-Many
  • 77. 76 Internet Trends 2019 Image Creation = Foundations Continue to Ramp 4S 5 5S 6 6S 7 X XS Source: Smartphone Installed Base Per Morgan Stanley (3/19). iPhone Power / Storage Per. GeekBench Browser, Apple. Note: Geekbench is a multi-platform benchmarking tool intended to compare the power of computer processors across generation, platform & workload. Maximum storage refers to largest storage capacity offered, as advertised. WiFi Data = WiGLE.net as of 5/29/18. Note: WiGLE.net is a submission-based catalog of wireless networks that has collected >6B data points since launch in 2001. Submissions are not paired with actual people, rather name / password identities which people use to associate their data. Ericsson Q4:18 Mobility Report. 0 2B 4B 2010 2014 2018 Smartphone Install Base, Global Active Smartphones 0 300GB 600GB 0 3,000 6,000 2010 2014 2018 Flagship iPhone Power / Storage GeekBench Processing Power Benchmark Maximum Storage 0 300MM 600MM 2000 2009 2018 WiFi Networks, Global WiFi Networks 0 15EB 30EB 2014 2016 2018 Cellular Data Traffic Monthly Uplink + Downlink Traffic, Global, Per Ericsson Smartphone / Camera Base… …Smartphone Power… …WiFi Reach …Cellular Data Use… Processing Power Storage
  • 78. 77 Internet Trends 2019 Image Sharing = Foundations Continue to Ramp Source: Photo Creation Per InfoTrends Digital Imaging Reporter’s State of the Industry 2018. Instagram releases. Image Creation Image Sharing 0 0.7T 1.4T 2013 2015 2017 Photos Taken, Global Instagram Monthly Active Users, Global 0 0.5B 1.0B 2010 2014 2018 Annual New Photos Taken, Global MAUs, Global
  • 79. 78 Internet Trends 2019 Image Creation + Sharing = Engagement Continues to Ramp… Source: Twitter. Note: Other media includes GIFs, Audio & other non image / video media types Twitter (2006) = Text-Only Twitter (2019) = Text + Images + Video >50% of Tweet Impressions = Images / Video / Other Media
  • 80. 79 Internet Trends 2019 …Image Creation + Sharing = Platform Functionality + Usage Continues to Ramp… Commerce 2019 Source: Instagram Releases (2011 / 2015 / 2016 / 2019) Instagram Image Sharing Enhancement Evolution Image Editing / Sharing 2011 Data-Driven Discovery 2015 Image + Video Stories 2016
  • 81. 80 Internet Trends 2019 …Image Creation + Sharing = Platform Functionality + Usage Continues to Ramp Source: Pinterest Releases (2011 / 2012 / 2015 / 2019) Pinterest Image Sharing Enhancement Evolution Image-Driven Discovery / Commerce 2019 Image Organization / Sharing 2011 Video Organization / Sharing 2012 Image- Powered Search 2015
  • 82. 81 Internet Trends 2019 Image-Based Communication = Enabled by Computer Vision + Artificial Intelligence Google Lens + AR Image Analysis / Communication Evolution Real-Time Visual Text Translation 2019 Visual Text Identification / Processing 2017 Image Identification / Context 2017 Contextual Augmented Reality 2018 Source: Google (2017-2019)
  • 83. 82 Internet Trends 2019 People = Increasingly Telling Stories via Edited Images / Videos
  • 84. 83 Internet Trends 2019 Edited Images = Growing Rapidly 0 20B 40B 12/17 3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 3/19 Snap Lens Studio User Generated / Custom Augmented Reality Views of User Generated Lenses Snap Community Lens Views Source: Snap Inc. Q4:17 Earnings Call (2/18), Snapchat Blog Post (7/18), Adweek (11/18), Engadget (2/19)
  • 85. 84 Internet Trends 2019 Image-Based Design Fluency + Story-Telling = Increasingly Self-Taught + Collaborative… Still Early Innings
  • 86. 85 Internet Trends 2019 Design Fluency + Story-Telling (Canva) = Simple / Collaborative / Feedback-Driven Design Choose Template Customize Design Collaborate in Teams Publish Anywhere Source: Canva (6/19)
  • 87. 86 Internet Trends 2019 People have always been visual – our brains are wired for images. Writing was a hack, a detour. Pictorial languages are how we all started to communicate – we are coming full circle. We are reverting to what is most natural. Instagram has always been a communication platform, not an image sharing tool. Instagram challenges the notion that beauty comes in a traditional, artsy form… it’s not about beauty, it’s about the story you tell. Instagram’s inherent feedback systems help users continuously improve communication skills. Kevin Systrom – Instagram Co-Founder, 5/19
  • 88. 87 Internet Trends 2019 Picture or 1,000 Words? Source: Photo Credit = Beth A Keiser, AP Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air— rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close by the mother for safety, often following behind her in a neat, single-file line. Mallard Duckling making a running leap into the water from the rock ledge at Argyle Lake, Babylon, Long Island. Mallard ducks are the most common & recognizable wild ducks in the Northern Hemisphere. They spend most of their time near natural bodies of water (ponds, marshes, streams, & lakes) where they feed on plants, invertebrates, fish, and insects. Mallards are dabbling, or surface-feeding, ducks because they eat by tipping underwater for food—head down, feet and tail in the air—rather than diving. Mallards also forage and graze for food on land. The male mallard duck, called a drake, sports a glossy green head, a white ring around its neck and a rich, chestnut-brown breast. The mallard duck's outer feathers are waterproof, because of an oil that’s secreted from a gland near the tail. Soon after birth, baby ducks, called ducklings, open their eyes. A little more than a day after hatching, ducklings can run, swim, and forage for food on their own. They stay in the nest for less than a month. A group of ducklings is called a brood. Outside the nest, the brood sticks close
  • 89. 88 Internet Trends 2019 Usage = Interactive Gaming… Increasingly Relevant Way to Communicate
  • 90. 89 Internet Trends 2019 Interactive Gaming Players = Accelerating @ 2.4B +6% vs. +5% Y/Y Interactive Game Players, Global Source: Newzoo Global Games Market Reports (2016-2018). Interactive Game Players = People who have played a game across console / PC / mobile platforms in the past year. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 1.5B 3.0B Interactive Game Players, Global
  • 91. 90 Internet Trends 2019 Interactive Gaming Innovation = Rising…Across Platforms 0 50 100 9/17 7/18 5/19 ~1 Major Update per Week ...Frequent Major Updates To Fortnite Named / Numbered Updates to Fortnite Source: Epic Games. (11/18). Note: Major update = named / numbered update to Fortnite. Game Engine Innovation… Unreal Engine 4.21 continues our relentless pursuit of greater efficiency, performance & stability for every project on any platform. We made it easier to create faster… We are always looking for ways to streamline everyday tasks so developers can focus on creating meaningful, exciting & engaging experiences...Iterate faster thanks to optimizations, run automated tests to find issues using the new Gauntlet automation framework, & speed up your day-to-day workflows... Jeff Wilson – Unreal Engine Release Notes, Epic Games, 11/18
  • 92. 91 Internet Trends 2019 Interactive Gaming = Real-Time Play + Talk / Text + Watch… Social in Nearly All Ways
  • 93. 92 Internet Trends 2019 0 150MM 300MM 10/17 4/18 10/18 4/19 Epic Fortnite Cross-Platform Evolution vs. Registered Users Source: Epic Games (9/17-3/19) Registered Users, Global 1 September 2017 Fortnite Battle Royale Launches on PC / Mac / PS4 / Xbox One With Limited Cross Platform Support 2 March 2018 V3.4 Patch is Released Allowing Users to Send & Receive Squad Invites Cross-Platform April 2018 Fortnite Launches to Public in iOS App Store, Allowing Cross- Platform Mobile Play 3 October 2018 Fortnite for Android Launches to Public 5 June 2018 Fortnite Launches on Nintendo Switch… Available on All Major Current Generation Consoles 4 1 2 3 5 4 Interactive Gaming (Play) = Fortnite @ 250MM+ Users + ~2x Y/Y Across Seven Platforms
  • 94. 93 Internet Trends 2019 Interactive Gaming (Text / Talk) = Discord @ 250MM Users + ~2x Y/Y 0 150MM 300MM 5/17 5/18 5/19 Discord Registered Users Source: Discord (5/17-4/19). Registered Users, Global Discord Text / Voice Chat
  • 95. 94 Internet Trends 2019 Interactive Gaming (Watch) = Twitch…Time + Viewers + ~2x in Two Years 0% 40% 80% 0 2.1MM 4.2MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y/Y Growth (Red Line) Average Broadcasters at Year-End, Global (Blue Bar) Active Broadcasters* Source: TwitchTracker (4/19). Note: *Active broadcasters at year end refers to the number of broadcasters who have streamed in the month of December for a given year. **Average concurrent users refers to the average daily peak of users viewing content on Twitch across a year. 0% 60% 120% 0 15MM 30MM 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y/Y Growth (Red Line) Average Daily Streaming Hours, Global (Blue Bar) Daily Streaming Hours 0% 40% 80% 0 0.6MM 1.2MM 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y/Y Growth (Red Line) Average Peak Concurrent Daily Users, Global (Blue Bar) Peak Concurrent Viewers** Twitch
  • 96. 95 Internet Trends 2019 Fortnite = Battle Royale… Game Environment Capped @ 100 Person Groups… Multiplayer / Cross-Platform Battle Royale 100 Players in Shared World Players Win via Discovering Items & Outlasting Others Consoles – Multiplayer Subscribers* 26% 51% 0% 30% 60% 0 50MM 100MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 Xbox / Playstation Online Multiplayer Subscribers (Blue Bar) Subscribers Share of Total Console Install Base (Red Line) Source: Morgan Stanley Research (10/18) Brian Nowak / IDC. Note: *For game consoles only (i.e. Xbox Live & Playstation Plus). Subscription required to play online multiplayer Fortnite games on Xbox platform, but not Playstation (Fortnite is available even to non-subscribers).
  • 97. 96 Internet Trends 2019 …Fortnite = Events… Shared Experiences Capped @ 100 Person Groups… In-Game Events / Experiences Source: Fortnite. Common Sense Media / SurveyMonkey Survey of 766 USA Teens (13-19) who play Fortnite. Survey conducted online via SurveyMonkey Survey portal (10/18). Marshmello Concert (2/19) 11MM Player-Viewers Cube Opening (11/18) 8MM Player-Viewers 50% = Learn Teamwork Skills 44% = Make a Friend Online 40% = Improve Communication Skills 39% = Bond with Siblings Has Fortnite Helped You _______? SurveyMonkey / Common Sense Media Teen Fortnite Player Survey
  • 98. 97 Internet Trends 2019 …Fortnite = Voice Chat… Collaborative Communication Capped @ 16 Squadmates Strategize / Bond With Team in Pre-Game Lobby via Voice Real-Time In-Game Collaboration With Team via Voice To truly see the future of collaborative gameplay & social experiences, you need a large-scale community to help that happen. We work really, really hard on Fortnite to maintain a safe experience online – for example, there's only chat between you & your squadmates. There's no proximity-based chat, so it's not possible for one person to grief another person they don't know. Kim Libreri – CTO, Epic Games, 3/19 Source: Wired (3/19). Epic Games.
  • 99. 98 Internet Trends 2019 Interactive Gaming… Shared Environments With Collective Purpose / Goals = The New Social / Friend Networks? Recreating Reality Around Play + Problem Solving
  • 100. 99 Internet Trends 2019 FREEMIUM BUSINESS MODELS = GROWING & SCALING… STILL EARLY DAYS IN ENTERPRISE / CONSUMER ’Freemium’ coined by Fred Wilson (Union Square Ventures) & Jarid Lukin in 2006
  • 101. 100 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Businesses = Free User Experience Enables More Usage / Engagement / Social Sharing / Network Effects… …Premium User Experience Drives Monetization / Product Innovation
  • 102. 101 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Business Model Evolution = Gaming → Enterprise → Consumer
  • 103. 102 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Gaming (2001) = Runescape… I launched [Runescape] in 2001. The basic plan was to run it for free, but to pay for my hobby through advertising. However, when the dot com bubble began to collapse, advertising dried up & there was no way to pay for the game's server. This is how the member [subscription] came about... once we had people paying, we were able to reinvest back into the game. The more we invested, the faster it grew. Andrew Gower – Runescape / Jagex, Creator, 5/07 0 0.8MM 1.6MM 2003 2005 2007 0% 6% 12% Millions Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Source: Jagex releases, as compiled by The Guardian (12/03), Gameindustry.biz (2/05), Runescape Blog (5/07) & GigaOM (6/07). Andrew Gower Interview first appeared on gamasutra.com (5/07). Note: Users refer to monthly active users. Total Users refers to active users (free + paid) in relevant period. Paid Users + Share of Total Premium …Improve User Experience Free Play With Others…
  • 104. 103 Internet Trends 2019 …Freemium Gaming (2017) = Epic Fortnite Premium …Improve User Experience Free Play With Others… Source: Epic Games Releases (2017-2019) The Hollywood Reporter (3/19). Nielsen Superdata (6/18 +1/19) Note: *Revenue growth estimate based on Superdata’s 3rd party estimate of ~$150MM in Epic Fortnite Revenue in 2017 & $2.4B in 2018 revenue. Fortnite launched in September 2017. I think it’s a very positive trend that people are spending time in social experiences. That’s the thing you have to appreciate with Fortnite. Most people are playing together in squads with their friends, they’re on voice chat. They’re playing a video game, but what they’re really doing is spending time with their friends & chatting all night. It can last as long as the developers can keep games fresh & fun – we’re at that point where we’re able to do it & there’s a business model with free-to-play. Tim Sweeney - Epic Games, Founder / CEO, 3/19 Epic Fortnite Revenue Growth, per Nielsen Superdata* 0 10x 20x 2017 2018 Revenue Growth (2017 = 1x)
  • 105. 104 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Gaming = Social / Often Mobile / Can Be Transient Source: Nexon = Annual Company Filings. HearthStone = Activision Blizzard Filings + Morgan Stanley estimates. Zynga = Zynga Annual Filings. Rovio = Rovio Annual Reporting. Note Paid users refers to users who upgrade to unlock premium features such as ad-free game play. Paid Users % of Total = share of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period. 0 1MM 2MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% 0% 10% 20% 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 5MM 10MM Nexon 0 3MM 6MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 15% 30% HearthStone Zynga 0 0.5MM 1.0MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 1% 2% Paid Users Paid % of Total Users Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Rovio
  • 106. 105 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Business Model Evolution = Gaming → Enterprise → Consumer
  • 107. 106 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Enterprise (2006) = Google G Suite… Premium …Enterprise User Experience Free Communicate With Others… Google’s many successful products deliver magical user experiences [for free] & when I joined Google, I was inspired to bring that same magic to the workplace with G Suite... Building [free] products that are loved by billions of users has driven a discipline in the G Suite team for simplicity of design & we are bringing that billion- user experience to the workplace…you’re actually seeing that workplace users are demanding it. Prabhakar Raghavan – Google, SVP of Engineering, 7/18 Source: Google Cloud Disclosures (2019) for G Suite Users. Google Next Conference for quote (7/18). Note: *Customers refers to the number of paying businesses using G Suite, not the number of paid users (e.g., one company with 10K employees would be counted as one customer. Google does not disclose the average G Suite customer size.) 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 0 3MM 6MM G Suite Customers * Paid Customers*
  • 108. 107 Internet Trends 2019 …Freemium Enterprise (2013) = Zoom Paid …Enterprise User Experience Free Communicate With Others… Our rapid adoption is driven by a virtuous cycle of positive user experiences. Individuals typically begin using our platform when a colleague or associate invites them to a Zoom meeting. When attendees experience our platform & realize the benefits, they often become paying customers to unlock additional functionality. Zoom – S-1 Filing, 3/19 Source: Zoom. Note: *Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimate of Zoom Customers with 1-10 employees plus Zoom annual disclosure of customers with 11+ employees (5/19). Paid Customers* FQ1 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1 FQ2 FQ3 FQ4 FQ1 0 150K 300K Paid Customers* FY18 FY19 FY = January 31 FY20
  • 109. 108 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Enterprise = Collaborative / Business-Critical / Annuity-Like Source: Dropbox = Public releases & Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimates. Slack = Public press release (05/18), SurveyMonkey = Company releases. Wix = Company presentation (3/19). Wix total users represent those with an account. Note: Paid users refers to subscribers to premium products. Paid user % of total = share of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period. 0 0.4MM 0.8MM 2016 2017 2018 0% 2% 4% SurveyMonkey 0 2MM 4MM 2015 2016 2017 0% 25% 50% Slack Paid Users Paid % of Total Users Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar) 0% 1.5% 3.0% 0 9MM 18MM 2016 2017 2018 Dropbox 0 2MM 4MM 2016 2017 2018 0% 2% 4% Wix Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar)
  • 110. 109 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Business Model Evolution = Gaming → Enterprise → Consumer
  • 111. 110 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Consumer (2008) = Spotify… Paid …Premium User Experience Free Share Music / Playlists With Others… [Spotify] worked because we recognized… fans wanted all the world's music for free, immediately. Our users share with their friends the joy of exploring music through Spotify, which creates incredible word-of-mouth for our business. …Our free product drives premium subscription growth, that leads to better personalization & drives use among younger demographics with greater potential lifetime value. Daniel Ek – Spotify, Founder / CEO, 3/18 Source: Spotify Analyst Day Presentation (3/18). Spotify. 0 50MM 100MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 25% 50% Paid Users + Share of Total Paid User % of Total (Red Line) Paid Users (Blue Bar)
  • 112. 111 Internet Trends 2019 …Freemium Consumer (2015) = Canva Paid …Premium User Experience Free Design With Others… Source: Canva (6/19). We want everyone in the world to be able to design, whether you are in marketing, sales, a teacher or student - design has become a critical part of most professions to communicate ideas. Rather than being stuck with complicated desktop based tools, we want everyone in the world to be able to create incredible designs that look professional and make them proud. Giving people legitimate value before asking them to pay can be a really useful strategy for any company wanting widespread adoption. Melanie Perkins – Canva, Co-Founder / CEO, 6/19 0 60MM 120MM 5/16 5/17 5/18 5/19 0 10MM 20MM Millions Monthly Active Users (Blue Bar) Monthly Designs Created (Red Line) Monthly Active Users + Designs Created
  • 113. 112 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Consumer = Personalized / Efficient / Often Social / Annuity-Like Source: Amazon Prime = Morgan Stanley estimates. Twitch = Morgan Stanley estimates. Chegg = Goldman Sachs Investment Research estimates. Cash App = Square public disclosures. Note: Paying users = subscribers for Amazon Prime / Twitch / Chegg. For Cash App, stored funds represent aggregate customer balances in the app as of the last day of the quarter. For all except Cash App, paid user % of total = share of payers in a period divided by total active users in the same period. Active users for Amazon = Active Paid accounts per MS estimates. 0 2MM 4MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 20% 40% Twitch Paid % of Total Users Paid Users (Blue Bar) Paid Users (Blue Bar) Paid Users (Blue Bar) 0 70MM 140MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 20% 40% Amazon Prime 0% 15% 30% 2016 2017 2018 0 2MM 4MM Chegg Paying User % of Total ( Red Line) Paying User % of Total ( Red Line) Paid Users Paid % of Total Users Stored Funds Annualized Card Spend Cash App $0 $200MM $400MM Q4:16 Q2:17 Q4:17 Q2:18 Q4:18 $0 $2B $4B Stored Funds in Cash App (Blue Bar) Annualized Cash Card Spend (Red Line) Paid Users
  • 114. 113 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Business Evolution = Started in Gaming Evolving / Emerging in Enterprise + Consumer… All In…Just Getting Started
  • 115. 114 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Business Models = All In…Just Getting Started *Excluding China companies where Freemium business models are more mature owing to higher maturity of digital payments, particularly microtransactions / Excludes diversified companies (such as Apple / Amazon / Microsoft ) owing to significant revenue contribution from non-freemium businesses / Includes private company Epic owing to scale. **Epic = Midpoint of 23-31MM estimate for Battle Pass subscribers per Timothy O’Shea @ Jeffries (3/19)…not confirmed by Epic Games. Source: CapitalIQ (including currency conversion) = Nexon / King (2018 Revenue as part of Activision) / Pandora / Mixi / Match Group / Dropbox / Netmarble. Spotify = Wall Street Journal / Company reports. Supercell = Venture Beat. Gaming Epic Games 27MM** Enterprise Dropbox 13MM** Consumer Spotify 100MM** Select Publicly Traded Pure-Play Freemium Businesses* >10MM Paid Subscribers (3/19) >$1B Annual Revenue (2018) Gaming Nexon 2011 Paid Items / Ads / Subscriptions King Digital 2013 Paid Items / Ads / Subscriptions Supercell 2014 Paid Items / Subscriptions Mixi 2015 Paid Items Netmarble 2016 Paid Items Epic Games 2018 Paid Items / Subscriptions Enterprise Dropbox 2017 Subscriptions Consumer Spotify 2014 Subscription / Ads Pandora 2015 Subscription / Ads Match Group 2016 Subscription / Ads $1B+ Revenue 1st Year Primary Monetization Drivers (Private Company) (Private Company)
  • 116. 115 Internet Trends 2019 Freemium Business Model Enabler = Cloud Deployment…
  • 117. 116 Internet Trends 2019 Cloud Deployment = Revenue +58% Y/Y… 0% 50% 100% $0 $7B $14B Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Amazon AWS Microsoft Azure Google Cloud Global Revenue Y/Y Growth (Red Line) 2015 Cloud Service Revenue – Amazon + Microsoft + Google Source: Amazon AWS = Company filings, Microsoft Azure = Keith Weiss @ Morgan Stanley (4/18), Google Cloud = Brian Nowak @ Morgan Stanley (5/18). Note: Google Cloud revenue based on MS annual estimate, applied to quarters using the seasonality trends on 2018. Google only included in 2019 growth rates owing to lack of estimates before 2018. 2016 2017 2018 2019
  • 118. 117 Internet Trends 2019 …Cloud Deployment = 22% of Workloads +2x vs. Five Years Ago 22% 0% 50% 100% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Cloud (% of Workloads) Laptop (% of PC Sales) Smartphone (% of Handset Sales) Online Music (% of Total Sales) Cloud (% of Enterprise Workloads) Technology Adoption Rates, Global per Morgan Stanley Source: Morgan Stanley (5/18-3/19). Note: Estimate of Cloud workload penetration based on Morgan Stanley CIO survey in Q4 of each year. Technology Penetration / Adoption (%)
  • 119. 118 Internet Trends 2019 …Cloud Deployment = Interest Continues to Rise 27% 39% 37% 49% 0% 25% 50% PaaS Iaas Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Platform as a Service (PaaS) Source: Morgan Stanley Q1:19 CIO Survey. N= 100 USA / EU CIOs of major companies. Infrastructure as a service defined as cloud computing that uses virtualized resources in the cloud (i.e. processing, storage, etc.), but not software or other value add services. Platform as a service defined as cloud based hardware / software platforms, such as managed middleware. Cloud Usage – CIO Survey, USA / EU per Morgan Stanley Q1:18 Q1:19 % Respondents
  • 120. 119 Internet Trends 2019 …Freemium / Subscription Business Model Enabler = Efficient Digital Payments
  • 121. 120 Internet Trends 2019 Digital Payments = >50% of Day-to-Day Transactions 2% 2% 2% 5% 4% 7% 7% 8% 9% 14% 41% Other Wearables / Contactless Smart Home Device QR Codes Other In-App Payments Mobile Messenger Apps P2P Transfer Other Mobile Payments Buy Buttons Other Online In-Store 0% 25% 50% % of Global Responses (6/18) Transactions by Payment Channel Thinking of your past 10 everyday transactions, how many were made in each of the following ways? Source: Visa Global Commerce Unbound 2018 (2/19). Note: Full question was ‘Please think about the payments you make for everyday transactions (excluding rent, mortgage, or other larger, infrequent payments). Thinking of your past 10 everyday transactions, how many were made in each of the following ways?’, GfK Research conducted the survey with n = 8,127 across 20 countries (USA, Canada, UK, France, Poland, Germany, Sweden, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, UAE, Kenya), between 5/31/18 – 6/29/18. All respondents do not work in Financial Services, Marketing, Marketing Research, Advertising, or Public Relations, own & currently use a smartphone, have a savings or checking account; own/use a computer or tablet, & own a credit or debit card. 59% = Digital In-Store
  • 122. 121 Internet Trends 2019 DATA GROWTH = CHANGING WAYS THINGS WORK… RAPIDLY & GLOBALLY
  • 123. 122 Internet Trends 2019 Data Collection + Analysis + Utilization = Evolving From Humans to Humans / Computers
  • 124. 123 Internet Trends 2019 Pre-1995 Winning Businesses = Use Human Data / Insights To Improve Customer Experiences…
  • 125. 124 Internet Trends 2019 Product Development (1890s-1950s)… IBM = Feet-on-Street Customer Input $0 $1B $2B 1910 1935 1960 IBM Annual Revenue Revenue IBM developed a sales force that became deeply knowledgeable about their customers’ operations & could explain benefits specific to each organization. Customers became highly engaged with IBM employees to explain what product innovations they needed to better use these [tabulation machines] that had become so essential to their operations. Research & development at IBM depended on this interaction between engineers & customers. James Cortada – Change & Continuity at IBM, 3/18 Source: IBM Revenue per IBM Online History Archives (Collected 2019). James W. Cortada’s ‘Change & Continuity’ at IBM: Key Themes in Histories of IBM (Cambridge Press, Spring 2018 edition). Cimarron City Library Digital Archives. Note: Image contains a mixture of IBM sales people, engineers & customers gathered @ IBM Corporation School for collaborative working sessions. Photo taken 1951. Sales Force + Customers
  • 126. 125 Internet Trends 2019 Product Development (1970s)… Nike = Employee / User Input Nike Annual Revenue All our employees were runners, we understood the consumer very well… We & the consumer were one & the same. We got to know the players at the top of the game & did everything we could to understand what they needed, both from a technological & a design perspective. Our engineers & designers spent a lot of time talking to the athletes about what they needed both functionally & aesthetically. Phil Knight – Nike, Founder, 7/92 Source: Nike revenue from 1981 Nike Annual Report Quote: High-Performance Marketing: An Interview with Nike’s Phil Knight (HBR July/August 1992 issue) Image: Nike. Note: Image Depicts Oregon Track Coach / Trainer Using Nike Shoes in Training & Improving New Models Using His Learnings. $0 $250MM $500MM 1977 1979 1981 Employee / User Revenue
  • 127. 126 Internet Trends 2019 Product Development (1980s)… Chrysler = Focus Group Research $0 $14B $28B 1981 1984 1987 1984: Chrysler Launches Dodge Caravan & Plymouth Voyager Minivans Chrysler Annual Revenue 1978 clinics in Atlanta, Denver & San Diego showed that customers wanted – The ability to park in a standard garage, a side door opening at least 30 inches wide… seating for 3 people across, a flat interior floor, removable seats & the ability to walk from one end of the van to another. David Zatz – Hemmings Magazine / ‘Mopar Minivans,’ 2/19 Source: Chrysler revenue as reported in The New York Times in each year. Data does not include pro-forma revenue from acquisition of American Motors Corp. Quote: David Zatz’s ‘Mopar Minivans: Creating the first 20 years of Dodge, Chrysler, & Plymouth “magic wagons’ as excerpted in Hemming’s Magazine (2019) Image: New York Times Digital Archives (1984) Focus Groups Revenue
  • 128. 127 Internet Trends 2019 Product Development (1980s)… Intuit = All-In Focus on Customer Testing $0 $150MM $300MM 1984 1989 1994 We recruited people off the streets & timed their Kwik-Chek (Quicken) usage with a stopwatch. After every test, programmers worked to improve the program. We did usability testing in 1984, five years before anyone else, there’s a big difference between doing it & having marketing people doing it as part of their design…a very big difference between doing it & having it be the core of what engineers focus on. Scott Cook – Intuit, Co-Founder, 9/03 Source: Inside Intuit, Suzanne Taylor, 2003 Photo courtesy of Virginia Boyd as presented by Inside Intuit. Revenue as reported in ‘Inside Intuit’ for 1988-1990 & as reported to the SEC for 1993/1994. Intuit released its first revenue-generating product, Kwik-Chek in 1984. User / Usability Testing Intuit Annual Revenue Revenue Kwik-Chek User Testing @ Palo Alto Junior League (Inside Intuit, Taken 1984)
  • 129. 128 Internet Trends 2019 …1990s-2000s… Internet + Mobile Devices + Cloud Netscape Web Browser – 1994 Amazon Web Services (AWS) – 2006 Apple iPhone – 2007 Apple App Store – 2008
  • 130. 129 Internet Trends 2019 …Post-1995 Winning Businesses = Use Digital Data / Insights To Improve Customer Experiences…
  • 131. 130 Internet Trends 2019 Marketing Optimization (Post-1995)… Capital One = Customer Data $0 $2B $4B 1991 1994 1997 2000 Capital One Annual Revenue …the technology & information revolution had transformed the credit card business into an information business…allowing the capture of information on every customer interaction & transaction. With this information, we can conduct scientific tests; build actuarially-based models of consumer behavior & tailor products, pricing, credit lines & account management to meet the individual needs & wants of each customer. By exploiting this insight, we have transformed the one-size-fits-all credit card industry & created one of the fastest growing companies in America. Capital One Annual Report – 1996 Source: Capital One Revenue From CapitalIQ (Collected 2019) Quote: 1996 Capital One Annual Report Image: 1998 Capital One Annual Report Digital Information Capture Revenue
  • 132. 131 Internet Trends 2019 User Experience + Sales Optimization (Post-1995)… Amazon = Customer Data This is Day 1 for The Internet – & if we execute well – for Amazon.com. Today, online commerce saves customers money & precious time. Tomorrow, through personalization, online commerce will accelerate the very process of discovery. Amazon.com uses the Internet to create real value for its customers &, by doing so, hopes to create an enduring franchise. This year, we maintained a dogged focus on improving the shopping experience…we now offer...vastly more reviews, content, browsing options & recommendation features. Amazon Annual Report – 1997 Source: Amazon Revenue from CapitalIQ (Collected 2019) Quote: 1997 Amazon Annual Report Image: Amazon.com (2019) Real-Time Digital Information Capture $0 $125B $250B 1994 2006 2018 Amazon Annual Revenue Revenue
  • 133. 132 Internet Trends 2019 …2000s Winning Businesses = Build / Use Data Plumbing Tools To Use Digital Data / Insights To Improve Customer Experiences
  • 134. 133 Internet Trends 2019 Data Plumbing Tools = Helping Businesses Real-Time… Collect Data… Understand Customer Wants & Improve Business Processes Increase Customer Input / Improve Products Manage Direct Customer / Subscriber Relationships Improve Consumer Decision Making …Manage Connections… Organize Internal + External Communication Communicate with Customers via Multiple Channels Organize Customer Data Across IT Systems …Optimize Data Improve Analytics / Recommendations / Personalization Respond To Customer Events at Scale Discover Business Insights + Optimize Fulfillment Manage Data Growth & Eliminate Inefficiencies
  • 135. 134 Internet Trends 2019 Qualtrics + FabFitFun = Collect Data to… Understand Customer Wants & Improve Business Processes Every organization in the world needs to collect experience data to close the massive gaps between the experiences they think they are delivering & what is really happening, both internally & externally. Collecting experience data through Qualtrics allows companies to make adjustments in real time & adapt to fast-paced, changing circumstances. This allows those companies to quickly close experience gaps with their customers & enables employees to work more efficiently to serve those customers. Ryan Smith – Qualtrics, Co-Founder, 6/19 Source: Qualtrics S-1 Filing (10/18). Morgan Stanley Estimate of 2018 Revenue (as part of SAP). FabFitFun (6/19) Qualtrics = Experience Management Qualtrics Revenue Revenue FabFitFun = Community Input FabFitFun Subscribers We’re constantly tapping our members for real- time feedback to better understand the products & trends they like, the ingredients & formulations that get them excited, & the categories that connect them back to the FabFitFun brand & community. We’ve aggregated millions of data points about consumer product & brand preferences allowing us to precisely forecast satisfaction with personalized curations & enable a flywheel between deeper understanding & an improved member experience. Daniel Broukhim– FabFitFun, Co-Founder / Co-CEO, 6/19 $0 $250MM $500MM 2016 2017 2018 0 0.7MM 1.4MM 2016 2017 2018 Subscribers
  • 136. 135 Internet Trends 2019 Salesforce + Adidas = Collect Data to… Increase Customer Input / Improve Products …as every company transforms their relationships with their customers…they're fundamentally changing how they sell & how they service, how they market & innovate. They're connecting with their customers in a whole new way. They're building incredible new intelligent 360-degree views of their customers, & they're using extraordinary new tools to get faster, more informed decisions & at the heart of all this transformation is Salesforce. Marc Benioff – Salesforce, Co-Founder / Co-CEO, 8/18 Source: Salesforce SEC Filing. Goldman Sachs Investment Research. Marc Benioff @ FQ2:19 Salesforce.com Earnings Call (8/18). Salesforce Connections 2018 Keynote Address, Adidas Annual Report (2018) Salesforce Annual Revenue Salesforce = Customer Engagement $0 $8B $16B FY2001 FY2010 FY2019 Revenue FY = January We need to be able to respond to consumer expectations immediately. The relationship between Adidas & Salesforce allows us to be proactive in our designs – our ability to roll out new products & influence trends is amazing... Our direct connection with customers through Salesforce basically makes it happen overnight. Kasper Rorsted – Adidas, CEO, 6/18 Adidas E-Commerce Sales €0 €1B €2B 2014 2016 2018 E-Commerce Sales Adidas = Customer Co-Creation
  • 137. 136 Internet Trends 2019 Stripe + Slack = Collect Data to… Manage Direct Customer / Subscriber Relationships …the most innovative companies are establishing recurring relationships with their customers. As these businesses iterate to find the best pricing & sales strategy, they’re often unnecessarily constrained by what their billing system allows. [Customers] needed to do more than just simple subscription management. Based on feedback from many of our customers & others, we built Stripe Billing to provide fast-growing businesses the tools to move quickly & design billing around customer experience. Noah Pepper – Stripe, Engineering & Product Management, 4/18 Source: Stripe blog post (4/18). Stripe (6/19). Slack public disclosures (2015-2018). Stewart Butterfield Interview with SaaStr (7/15). Stripe = Transaction Management Slack = Effective Billing of Users Slack Paying Share of Total Users Slack recently launched Fair Billing Policy & it makes our customers say 'Wow, that's amazing.‘ They'll tweet about it, tell their friends about it. They'll be very happy with us. They'll be much more likely to renew. They have a positive impression. That positive impression, obviously, makes a huge difference. Stewart Butterfield – Founder / CEO, Slack, 7/15 Paying Share of Total Users 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 25% 50% Stripe Stripe Billing 1.0x 3.5x 6.0x 2016 2017 2018 2019YTD
  • 138. 137 Internet Trends 2019 Plaid + Betterment = Collect Data to… Improve Consumer Decision Making Source: Plaid (6/19). Betterment disclosures and press releases (3/16-6/19). Bank accounts connected refers to accounts connected to 3rd party services via Plaid. Betterment Assets Under Management Betterment = Automated Financial Management Emotions drive human behavior, especially when it comes to money – people often engage in sub-optimal behaviors like trying to time the market. Delivering high quality automated financial advice in real-time at scale requires access to consumers’ financial data. We’re able to use data from Plaid and other sources to deliver personalized, low-cost financial advice to more than 450,000 customers. Jon Stein – Betterment, CEO, 6/19 Assets Under Management Plaid Bank Accounts Connected Plaid = Financial Data Access 0 90MM 180MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 In the past, financial services were organized geographically – a bank would serve a local population & offer whatever services it thought that area needed – which often meant many consumers were underserved. Today, a new class of user-centric financial services companies are emerging that use data to tailor their services to the specific needs of individual consumers. Our goal at Plaid is to build the infrastructure that enables consumers to easily & securely share their financial data with any financial services app that helps them live healthier financial lives. Zach Perret – Plaid, Co-Founder / CEO, 6/19 Bank Accounts Connected with Plaid $0 $10B $20B 12/15 9/16 6/17 3/18 12/18
  • 139. 138 Internet Trends 2019 Slack + HelloFresh = Manage Connections to… Organize Internal + External Communication What Google is doing for the web, we’re trying to structure by channel. Team-first, organization-first approach to messages as opposed to individual first. As individual productivity increases, it's the handoff between people that gets more complicated. The talking to other people is the actual work. Stewart Butterfield – Slack, Founder / CEO, 5/18 Source: Slack Public Press Releases, Stewart Butterfield Interview With Inc. (5/18). Slack Public Case Study, Twitter (4/19) Hello Fresh Annual Reports. Slack Daily Active Users Slack = Communication Channels HelloFresh Annual Orders HelloFresh = Feedback Mentoring HelloFresh uses Slack bots to monitor social media. Whenever someone mentions HelloFresh, the bot pushes these notices into a Slack channel. They’re similarly alerted whenever they get a review of their app on the Apple Store or Google Play. HelloFresh – 9/17 Annual Orders Daily Active Users, End of Year 0 6MM 12MM 2014 2016 2018 0 15MM 30MM 2016 2017 2018
  • 140. 139 Internet Trends 2019 Twilio + Shopify = Manage Connections to… Communicate with Customers via Multiple Channels 15 years ago, talking to customers meant you had a phone number & customers could call it. Now, you’ve got text messaging, chat, mobile apps with push notifications, WeChat, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger. We want to provide one system that allows companies to keep up with this rapidly changing landscape & constantly iterating on those customer experiences with easy to use tools & infrastructure that they don’t have to worry about scaling. Jeff Lawson – Twilio, Founder / CEO. 11/17 Twilio Customers Twilio = Customer Communication Shopify Active Merchants Shopify = Multi-Channel Dialog We want to create an easy experience for our customers…we want to establish trust & form a human relationship with our customers [merchants] when they reach out for support on our platform. It is essential to give our team the tools to cultivate those relationships from anywhere in the world on the channels that our customers want to use. Chris Wilson – Shopify, Merchant Operations, 11/18 0 40K 80K 2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018 0 450K 900K Source: Twilio Releases / Case Study (11/18). Jeff Lawson interview with BlogGeek.me (11/17). Shopify active merchants per Brian Essex @ Morgan Stanley. Active Merchants, Global Customers, End of Year
  • 141. 140 Internet Trends 2019 Segment + Meredith = Manage Connections to… Organize Customer Data Across IT Systems Source: Segment, Peter Reinhardt Blog Post (9/18). Segment Release (2018) Meredith Annual Reports (2012-2018). Note: Meredith digital advertising reflects National Media segment. Segment Annual Recurring Revenue Segment = Customer Data Infrastructure Meredith Digital Advertising Share of Total Meredith = Content Recommendation Digital Advertising Revenue (% of Total) 0% 20% 40% 2012 2015 2018 Today’s customers expect highly relevant, contextualized experiences wherever they interact with a business. However, this is an extremely difficult technology problem to solve. Businesses are interacting with customers across dozens of digital channels, leading to a tangled mess of data that is siloed throughout their organization. Customer Data Infrastructure solves this problem. It allows companies to collect, manage & easily route their first-party data to whichever application requires it, ensuring customer experiences are consistent and relevant. Peter Reinhardt – Segment, Co-Founder / CEO, 6/19 Segment has enabled us to streamline the customer data capture process, while maintaining flexibility to customize for each of our 36+ magazine brands as needed. Before adopting Segment, we were spending far too much money on disjointed analytics & we had no way to look at the entire network at scale… We now look across the entire organization to make sure we’re best serving all of these groups. Grace Preyapongpisan & Kerry-Anne Doyle – Meredith, Business Intelligence, 1/18
  • 142. 141 Internet Trends 2019 Snowflake + Instacart = Optimize Data to… Improve Analytics / Recommendations / Personalization There's a lot of value in business data, but most companies struggle to extract that value. The issue is with existing technology. The list of challenges we hear from our customers is consistent: Data is segregated into separate silos, significant energy goes into managing infrastructure, concurrency & resource limitations get in the way of business needs & overall the tools are hard to work with. Snowflake's unique architecture solves these problems being built from the ground up to leverage the scale, performance & elasticity of the cloud. Frank Slootman – Snowflake, CEO, 6/19 Source: Snowflake (5/19). Instacart (12/18). Snowflake Monthly Active Customers Snowflake = Broad Data Access Instacart Households Covered Instacart = Product Replacements Every time an Instacart shopper scans an item into their cart or marks an item as “not found,” we get information that helps us make granular predictions of an item’s in-store availability. This helps us recommend appropriate replacements for items likely to be out-of-stock. Among other improvements, performing complicated feature engineering in our Snowflake data warehouse instead of python, this new [item replacement] tool, which scores 15x more items than previous tools, was built with 1/5 of the resources in 1/4 of the time. Instacart – 12/18 <20MM 100MM+ 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ~2,000
  • 143. 142 Internet Trends 2019 Confluent + Accor = Optimize Data to… Respond to Customer Events at Scale Companies are still running on tech from batch-process era, yet their customers expect experiences with real-time, contextual information. Companies are now re-architecting their businesses around real-time data with a new kind of data infrastructure called event streaming platforms. With Confluent, companies can connect all of their systems & power applications with live data sources. Now, they can engage their customers based on real-time events. Jay Kreps – Confluent, CEO, 6/19 Source: Confluent (6/19), Accor (6/19) Confluent Annual Bookings Confluent = Data / Event / Response Accor Monthly Requests for Lodging Availability Accor = Availability Request Processing Accor’s augmented hospitality offerings include 4,800 hotels, resorts, & residences across 100 countries. As part of a shift to a more connected, real-time future, Confluent is helping simplify & transform the booking lifecycle, connecting the data & event streams that are triggered the second a customer clicks ‘book,’ from processing the payment & fraud detection to adding dietary requirements & room preferences from previous bookings. Julien Ramakichenin – VP Distributed & Intelligent Systems, Accor, 6/19 0x 3x 6x 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 0 3B 6B
  • 144. 143 Internet Trends 2019 Looker + FarFetch = Optimize Data to… Discover Business Insights + Optimize Fulfillment Looker helps companies better understand all the data they have & I think this has been a holy grail for a long time. Companies want to be data-driven. They want their employees to be able to ask questions & get factual answers. When we started out, companies didn’t understand the lifetime value of their customers completely, & there was this chaos going – we wanted to bring data into the reach of any company so it could use it more effectively. Frank Bien – Looker, President & CEO, 8/18 Source: Looker (6/19) San Jose Mercury News (8/18). Farfetch release (3/19). Looker Customers Looker = Business Intelligence FarFetch Annual Net Orders FarFetch = Optimize Order Fulfillment 0 2MM 4MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual Orders (Net Cancellations) In luxury fashion, there is often a mismatch between supply & demand...Emerging brands typically have no route to the global market & their distribution is limited. Farfetch has more supply / demand data than anyone else in the luxury fashion industry & is now supplementing it with even more market data. Over time, Farfetch will turn that data into strategic commercial insights to form the basis of advisory for the fashion industry (starting with the luxury brands) through the development of a disruptive insights platform. Farfetch – 3/19 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  • 145. 144 Internet Trends 2019 UiPath + Sumitomo Mitsui = Optimize Data to… Manage Data Growth & Eliminate Inefficiencies …[Robotic Process Automation’s (RPA)] benefits compound as employees are freed from the burden of routine, monotonous manual work, enabling them to focus on high-value tasks such as improving customer service, enabling front-line staff to retrieve more data at a faster rate & enhancing every aspect, from the booking experience to customer service support. This leads to greater employee satisfaction & more productive staff who deliver better customer service experience & positive feedback from customers. Daniel Dines – UiPath, Founder / CEO, 4/18 Source: UiPath. Daniel Dines interview with Aviation & Defense Universe (4/18). Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation press release (11/17) & 2017 annual report (5/18). Digital penetration defined as share of customers using any digital channel to conduct banking operations. Customers, End Of Year UiPath Computer Vision Training UiPath Customers UiPath = Data-Driven Process Automation Sumitomo Mitsui Digital Customer Penetration* Sumitomo Mitsui = Increase Support Capacity Our key areas of RPA implementation include – information gathering processes used to enhance sales & planning capabilities (customer transaction / industry data) & supporting branch operations (customer performance reports / mortgage loan brochures). The anticipated 3MM person-hours of productivity to be generated over the next 3 years [by using RPA] will be used to expand value-add operations, like enhancement of sales capacity through improved customer proposals. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Share of Customers Using Digital Services 0% 15% 30% 2016 2017 2018 0 1.5K 3.0K 2016 2017 2018
  • 146. 145 Internet Trends 2019 …Data Plumbing Tools = Helping Businesses Real-Time Collect Data… Understand Customer Wants & Improve Business Processes Increase Customer Input / Improve Products Manage Direct Customer / Subscriber Relationships Improve Consumer Decision Making …Manage Connections… Organize Internal + External Communication Communicate with Customers via Multiple Channels Organize Customer Data Across IT Systems …Optimize Data Improve Analytics / Recommendations / Personalization Respond To Customer Events at Scale Discover Business Insights + Optimize Fulfillment Manage Data Growth & Eliminate Inefficiencies
  • 147. 146 Internet Trends 2019 Data is now fundamental to how people work & the most successful companies have intelligently integrated it into everyone's daily workflow… Data is the new application. Frank Bien – CEO & President, Looker, 6/19
  • 148. 147 Internet Trends 2019 Data / Artificial Intelligence – Used Properly – Can Improve Customer Satisfaction
  • 149. 148 Internet Trends 2019 Retail Customer Satisfaction = Can Rise With Data + Personalization Source: *Accenture survey of 8,000 consumers in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, The UK, & USA (2018). Note: Passively sharing data includes things like purchase history, etc. Active sharing data would include brand preference, favorite fabrics, etc. 91% Prefer Brands that Provide Personalized Offers / Recommendations 83% Willing to Passively Share Data in Exchange for Personalized Experiences 74% Willing to Actively Share Data in Exchange for Personalized Experiences Survey of Retail Customers Accenture (Global*)
  • 150. 149 Internet Trends 2019 People around the world have called for comprehensive privacy regulation in line with the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, & I agree… …[New Regulation] should protect your right to choose how your information is used — while enabling companies to use information for safety purposes & to provide services. Mark Zuckerberg – Co-Founder / CEO, Facebook, 3/19
  • 151. 150 Internet Trends 2019 Data Volume + Utilization = Evolving Rapidly / Broadly
  • 152. 151 Internet Trends 2019 Data Volume = Extraordinary Growth… ~13% Structured / Tagged & Rising Rapidly 0ZB 100ZB 200ZB 2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E Source: IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere. Note: 1 petabyte = 1MM gigabytes, 1 zeta byte = 1MM petabytes of new data created / captured each year. The grey area in the graph represents data generated, not stored. Structured data indicates data that has been organized so that it is easily searchable & includes metadata & machine-to-machine (M2M) data. Replicated data = data that is a copy of the original.. 9% Structured 10% 16% 32% 13% New Data Captured / Created / Replicated, per IDC 2018 Data Volume, Annual, Global (ZB) Original Data Replicated Data
  • 153. 152 Internet Trends 2019 Data Propagation = Expanding… Endpoints ⇋ Edge ⇋ Core Source: Adapted from Graphics presented in IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere. People Connected Processes Branch Offices Large Datacenters, Including Public & Private Cloud ENDPOINT EDGE CORE
  • 154. 153 Internet Trends 2019 0% 35% 70% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Consumer Enterprise Cloud Data Stewardship = Evolving… Enterprise Surpassed Consumer…Cloud Overtaking Both Data Stored by Manager, per IDC Source: IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere. Note: Consumer refers to devices owned by end users, such as smartphones, computers, external hard drives, etc. Enterprise refers to data stored by businesses, often in on-premise data centers. Public cloud refers to services such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, etc. Note: 2018 = last full year before release of report. 2019-2025 are estimated from current trends. Share of Total, Global (%) 2018
  • 155. 154 Internet Trends 2019 Data Volume Share = EMEA Leads… Followed by Fast Rising China…USA Falling 0% 20% 40% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 New Data Captured / Created / Replicated by Region, per IDC Source: IDC ‘Digitization of the World From Edge to Core White Paper’ developed in collaboration with Seagate (11/18), IDC DataSphere. IDC estimates that China’s Data captured / created / replicated will grow 30% annually for next 7 years owing to more Internet users creating more data in China & China’s above average usage of video surveillance – video is by far the most data-intensive type of data commonly captured / created / replicated today. EMEA’s datasphere is the largest in the world today owing, in part, to their mature use of video surveillance technology. Note: EMEA = Europe, Middle East & Africa. ROW = Rest of World. Note: 2018 = last full year before release of report. 2019-2025 are estimated from current trends. 2018 Share of Total, Global (%) China EMEA USA Asia (Ex-China) ROW
  • 156. 155 Internet Trends 2019 The data-driven world will be always on, always tracking, always monitoring, always listening & always watching – because it will be always learning. What we perceive to be randomness will be bounded into patterns of normality by sophisticated artificial intelligence algorithms that will deliver the future in new & personalized ways. Artificial intelligence will drive even more automation into businesses & feed processes & engagements that will deliver new levels of efficiency & products that are tailored to business outcomes & individual customer preferences. Today, companies are leveraging data to improve customer experiences, open new markets, make employees & processes more productive & create new sources of competitive advantage… Traditional paradigms will be redefined (like vehicle or white goods ownership) & ethical, moral & societal norms will be challenged… David Reinsel / John Gantz / John Rydning – IDC, The Digitization of the World – From Edge to Core, 11/18
  • 157. 156 Internet Trends 2019 Data Volume + Utilization… Technology Change > Human Adaptability 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Rate of Change Time Technology Human Adaptability Source: Adapted from quotes originally appearing in ‘Thank you For Being Late’ by Thomas Friedman, 2016. Updated in June 2019 by Astro Teller. We Are Here Humans’ ability to adapt to technological change is increasing, but it is not keeping pace with the speed of scientific & technological innovation. To overcome the resulting friction, humans can adapt by developing skills that enable faster learning & quicker iteration & experimentation. Developing these skills is particularly important for policy makers & regulators who are looking to protect the public interest. They need to be ready to try new approaches, iterate & change with the times so tech progress goes hand in hand with public benefit. Astro Teller – X, The Moonshot Factory Adapted from Thomas Friedman’s Thank You For Being Late, 2016 Potential Human Adaptability Acceleration Owing to Faster Learning & Smarter Regulation
  • 158. 157 Internet Trends 2019 Consumers + Businesses + Regulators = Increasingly Drinking from Data Firehose Source: The Canadian Press
  • 159. 158 Internet Trends 2019 …INTERNET USAGE = THERE ARE CONCERNS…THERE IS GOODNESS
  • 161. 160 Internet Trends 2019 8% 17% 36% 39% 6% 12% 28% 36% 0% 25% 50% 65+ 50-64 30-49 18-29 Adults ‘Almost Constantly’ Online = 26% vs. 21% Three Years Ago Source: Pew Research (7/15 + 1/18) % of Respondents in Pew Survey, USA 2015 2018 % of Adults Online ‘Almost Constantly’ 21% 26% 0% 15% 30% All Adults % of Respondents, USA By Age Group Overall 2015 2018 Pew Survey (USA)
  • 162. 161 Internet Trends 2019 Social Media = Positive & Negative Sleep Quality / Amount Fear of Missing Out Bullying Body Image Anxiety Depression Average Loneliness Real-World Relationships Access To Health Info Awareness of Others Emotional Support Community Building Self-Identity Self-Expression Worse / Negative Better / Positive More Positive More Negative Do Social Media Platforms You Use Make These Health-Related Factors Better or Worse? Source: Royal Society For Public Health Survey of 1,479 British teens in ‘early-2017’ Each teen was asked to rate 5 of the most popular social networks (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat & Instagram) on each dimension. Data presented = average of scores for each social network. .
  • 163. 162 Internet Trends 2019 Digital Media = Users Taking Action to Reduce Usage 39% 16% 52% 57% 0% 30% 60% Used Parental Controls For Websites Used Parental Controls For Phone Use 2015 2018 Source: Deloitte Mobile Consumer Survey, US (11/18) Pew Research (7/15 + 1/18) Parent Actions to Regulate Children’s Internet / Phone Usage 47% 63% 0% 35% 70% 2017 2018 % of Respondents, USA % of Adults Trying to Limit Personal Smartphone Use, USA Used Digital Parental Controls for Phone Use Used Digital Parental Controls for Websites % of Parent Respondents, USA Pew Survey (USA)
  • 164. 163 Internet Trends 2019 Digital Media = Businesses Taking Action to Help Users Monitor Usage 2018 Major Platforms Launched Wellness / Time Tracking Features Apple Screen Time Google Digital Wellbeing Facebook Your Time on Facebook YouTube Time Watched Source: Apple, YouTube, Google, Facebook
  • 165. 164 Internet Trends 2019 Social Media Usage = Decelerating… +1% vs. 6% Y/Y 0% 8% 16% 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 0 1.2 2.4 Daily Time Spent on Social Media, Global Source: Hootsuite & WeAreSocial Digital 2019 report (1/19). Note: 2019 Estimate owing to the fact that users were surveyed in January 2019, before they have completed the year 2019. Daily Hours Spent (Blue Bar) Growth, Y/Y (Red Line)
  • 167. 166 Internet Trends 2019 Digital Media = Privacy Concerns High But Moderating People More Concerned About Internet Privacy vs. One Year Ago, Global 64% 52% 0% 40% 80% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: CIGI-IPSOS Global Survey on Internet Security & Trust 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018. 2018 = 24,750 Internet users from 12/29/17-3/5/18. 2017 = 24,225, 2016 = 24,143, 2014 = 23,376. % of Respondents 2018 – The New York Times reveals Cambridge Analytica improperly accesses 87MM Facebook profiles 2017 – Equifax reveals the personal financial records of over 145MM Americans owing to an unsecured web portal 2016 – Yahoo! reveals that 3B Customer records, including names, address & encrypted passwords were breached 2015 – Anthem Health announces that 80MM personal health records were stolen in a ‘sophisticated attack’ 2014 – The New York Times reports on NSA documents showcasing government tracking of USA smartphone use
  • 168. 167 Internet Trends 2019 Regulators / Businesses = Improving Consumer Privacy Control Businesses Improving Privacy Management Source: Facebook (5/18). Google (4/18). EU – (3/18) State of California (6/18) Facebook Google 2018 2019 Regulators Mandating Privacy Rules / Policies EU - GDPR Passed – 2016 Effective – 2018 California State Passed – 2018 Effective – 2020
  • 169. 168 Internet Trends 2019 Digital Media = Encrypted Messaging / Traffic Rising Rapidly Source: Google, Tencent, Twitter, Facebook, Apple, Telegram releases & Morgan Stanley estimates. Note: *iMessage2 MAUs calculated by install base of Apple iPhones, as estimated by Credit Suisse (2014-2017). WhatsApp employs end-to-end encryption by default. Facebook Messenger has end-to-end encryption capabilities but users have to manually enable them. Instagram does not have end-to-end encryption but Facebook is planning to add that feature & make Facebook Messenger encrypted by default (1/19). All Gmail messages are encrypted at rest and in transit. Fortinet Q3:18 Quarterly Threat Landscape Report (11/18). HTTPS = Hyper Text Transfer Protocol Secure is the secure 53% 87% Q1:16 Q3:16 Q1:17 Q3:17 Q1:18 Q3:18 Q1:19 0% 50% 100% % of Web Traffic Encrypted % of Web Traffic, Global Select Messenger MAUs 0 4B 8B 2014 2015 2016 2017 Default End-to-End Encryption Optional / Announced End-to-End Encryption No End-to-End Encryption Monthly Active Users
  • 170. 169 Internet Trends 2019 …Usage Concern = Problematic Content / Activity
  • 171. 170 Internet Trends 2019 More Than Half of Humanity (& Rising) = Online 24% 51% 0% 30% 60% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Internet Penetration, Global Internet Penetration, 2018 Source: CIA World Factbook, United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Internet user data is as of mid-year. Internet user data: Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII / GlobalWebIndex (Indonesia).
  • 172. 171 Internet Trends 2019 Source: The Journal of Media Economics (11/14) & The International Journal of Press / Politics (12/15). Media Maxim = People Prefer Negative News (2014)… We use a lab experiment to capture participants’ news selection biases, alongside a survey capturing their stated news preferences… regardless of what participants say, they exhibit a preference for negative news content. Marc Trussler & Stuart Soroka – Consumer Demand for Cynical & Negative News Frames, 3/14
  • 173. 172 Internet Trends 2019 No one attempting to derive an estimate of the present conditions in New York from the front page contents of our many newspapers could be blamed for concluding that society is on the verge of deplorable anarchy. James E. Rogers – University of Chicago Press, Quoting The Evening Post in The American Newspaper, 1909 …Media Maxim = People Prefer Negative News (1909)
  • 174. 173 Internet Trends 2019 Problematic Content on Internet = Can Be Less Filtered + More Amplified
  • 175. 174 Internet Trends 2019 Then News via Edited Text Images / Streaming = Can Be More Powerful Than Text Source: The Library of Congress, The New York Times, Pixabay, Ring Now News via Live Images
  • 176. 175 Internet Trends 2019 Google Apple Twitter Toutiao Reddit Search History Algorithms = Can Amplify Users Own Patterns Reading History Followed Accounts App Interactions Followed Interests Newsfeeds Curated Using… Source: Google, Apple, Twitter, ByteDance, Reddit
  • 177. 176 Internet Trends 2019 Social Media = Can Amplify Trending Topics 43% 21% 12% 0% 25% 50% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Facebook YouTube Twitter Source: Pew Research (9/18). Note Survey = 4,581 respondents interviewed between 7/30/18 & 8/12/18 vs. historical data from 2016 & 2013. Note: Instagram / LinkedIn / Reddit / Snapchat / WhatsApp / Tumblr not shown owing to less than 10% of respondents using them to get news in 2018. Do You Ever Get News or News Headlines from ____ ? Share of Respondents (%) Pew Survey (USA)
  • 178. 177 Internet Trends 2019 Traditional Media Platforms = Can Amplify Social Media Trending Topics 0% 3% 6% 2010 2012 2014 2016 % Articles Citing Content Originally Posted To Facebook / Twitter (Leading Newspapers*) The topics for which Facebook & Twitter are most commonly sourced [in newspaper articles] are similar across all countries – among them are soft news topics as well as hard news topics such as domestic & international politics, breaking-news events or reporting on movements, the last of which highlights the relative advantages of social media as a source for journalists. Gerret von Nordheim et al. – Sourcing the Sources, 6/18 Source: Sourcing the Sources – Bournemouth University. *An analysis of the use of Twitter & Facebook as a journalistic source over 10 years in The New York Times, The Guardian, & Süddeutsche Zeitung (leading newspapers in USA / UK / Germany). Analysis conducted by collecting articles from 2006-2016 across all 3 newspapers & running natural language processing models on the text to identify articles that mention Facebook or Twitter as sources % Articles Citing Facebook / Twitter
  • 179. 178 Internet Trends 2019 Social Media = Can Amplify Bad Behavior I Have Experienced _____ Online Source: Pew Research (9/18). Note: survey = 731 respondents age 13-17 interviewed between 3/7/18 & 4/10/18 42% = Offensive Name-Calling 32% = Spreading of False Rumors 16% = Physical Threats Pew Survey (USA Teens)
  • 180. 179 Internet Trends 2019 Motivated Bad Actors = Can Amplify Ideologies The main terrorist problem in the United States today is one of individuals radicalized by a diverse array of ideologies absorbed from the Internet. Peter Bergen & David Sterman – The Real Terrorist Threat in America - Foreign Affairs, 10/18
  • 181. 180 Internet Trends 2019 Unintended Bad Actors = Can Amplify Misinformation The Internet plays a role in fostering distinct & polarized online communities among conspiracy theory believers... Believers share their opinions & ‘evidence’ with other believers but are less willing to share with people who are critical of conspiracy theories – with the Internet, conspiracy groups become more homogeneous & their beliefs become stronger over time. Karen Douglas – Professor of Social Psychology, The University of Kent Writing for The Conversation, 6/18
  • 182. 181 Internet Trends 2019 Polarization has been abetted by many factors. Americans are sorting themselves out geographically, living in increasingly politically homogeneous neighborhoods. Social media & the proliferation of media channels via the Internet & TV has played a role, allowing people to communicate exclusively with people like themselves. Identity & the growth of identity politics have also played a role – People have gravitated toward groups that feel they are in a zero-sum competition against one another. Francis Fukuyama – Stanford University, Professor of Political Science, 12/18 Extreme Views = Can Amplify Polarization Distribution of Democrats & Republicans On 10-item Scale of Political Values, per Pew Research, USA Note: Ideological consistency based on a scale of 10 political values questions (see methodology).The blue area in this chart represents the ideological distribution of Democrats & Democratic-leaning independents; the red area of Republicans & Republican-leaning independents. The overlap of these two distributions is shaded purple. Source: Pew Surveys conducted 1994-2017. Stanford release. Pew Survey (USA)
  • 183. 182 Internet Trends 2019 Internet Platforms = Driving Efforts to Reduce Problematic Content 0% 40% 80% 0 5MM 10MM Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Facebook 0% 40% 80% 0 45MM 90MM Q4:17 Q1:18 Q2:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 YouTube Pieces of Content Removed, Excluding Spam (Blue Bar) % Hate Speech Removed Before User Reporting (Red Line ) Content Items Removed vs. % Hate Speech Identified / Removed Before User Report Videos Removed Owing To Community Guideline Violations Videos Removed for Community Guideline Violations vs. Share Flagged / Removed Before First View % Videos Removed Before First View (Red Line ) Source: Facebook Community Standards Enforcement Report (5/19). Pieces of content include posts, photos, videos or comments that were taken down due to violation of community guidelines. Taking action could include removing a piece of content from Facebook, covering photos or videos that may be disturbing to some audiences with a warning, or disabling accounts. Spam not included due to the scale (Billions of pieces of content removed quarterly. YouTube Community Guidelines enforcement Report (5/19). YouTube Community Guideline Violations can include sexual content, graphic / violent content, harassment, etc.
  • 184. 183 Internet Trends 2019 Consumers + Businesses = Driving Efforts to Moderate Problematic Content 0 100 200 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Global Independent Fact-Checking Organizations The number of media outlets focused on fact-checking & political accountability reporting has grown rapidly. Bolstered by new partnerships & technology, more fact-checking took place during the 2016 election than in previous elections. Media organizations including NPR & The Washington Post report record-breaking readership of their fact-checking work. Alan Greenblatt – The American Press Institute, 4/17 Source: Duke Reporter’s Lab Research (8/18). The Future of Fact-Checking: Moving Ahead in Political Accountability Journalism, published by the American Press Institute (4/17) Independent Fact Checking Organizations, Global
  • 185. 184 Internet Trends 2019 The Department of Homeland Security has engaged with major social media companies to encourage them to continue to police their websites… We do see that those efforts are bearing some fruit – I think we have a long way to go & we look forward to continue to engage with social media companies in that environment. Brian Murphy – Principal Deputy Undersecretary, Department of Homeland Security, Testimony to USA Congress, 5/19 We can definitely continue to improve how we manage the YouTube platform… I see how much improvement we've already made…If you look back 2 years, there were a lot of articles about how we handled violent extremism… if you talk to experts in this field today, you can see we've made tremendous progress. We are an information company - we committed last year to having >10,000 people moderating content… I see how much progress we've already made. We just made changes to our recommendation algorithms for borderline content & we've announced we've seen a 50% reduction in the views coming from recommendations on that content. If you combine much better policies with technology to do that at scale, I think you can be at a much better place. Susan Wojcicki – CEO, YouTube, Interview @ Code Conference, 6/19
  • 186. 185 Internet Trends 2019 Perception of Internet (USA) = Largely Positive for Individuals + Society When You Add Up Internet Advantages & Disadvantages of The Internet, It Has Been _____ for Me / Society 70% 88% 76% 90% 0% 50% 100% Share of Respondents For Me = Mostly Good For Society = Mostly Good Source: Pew Research. Poll of 1,785 USA Internet users from 1/3/18-1/10/18 & 2015, released on 4/30/18. 2014 2018 Pew Survey (USA)
  • 187. 186 Internet Trends 2019 Age-Old Challenge of Amplifying Good + Minimizing Bad = Taking Rapid Twists & Turns
  • 188. 187 Internet Trends 2019 Global Relationships Related to Information + Data = Evolving Differently / Rapidly
  • 189. 188 Internet Trends 2019 We need a new generation of laws to govern a new generation of tech. Brad Smith – President & Chief Legal Officer, Microsoft, 2/18 There’s a paradigm shift going on… Governments are moving from a position of non-interference to a realization that if we want to keep a cross-border Internet going, then we [need] a new system of governance. Paul Fehlinger – Co-Founder, Internet & Jurisdiction Policy Network, 2/18 Note: ‘Splinternet’ originated by Clyde Wayne Crews Jr. writing for the Cato Institute in 2001. In a sense, the World Wide Web as we know it is over… in its place is something altogether different: a Balkanized ‘splinternet’…where your experience online is determined by local regulation. Mark Scott – Chief Technology Correspondent, Politico, 12/17 & 2/18
  • 190. 189 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet Freedom… Partly-Free = Rising…Free / Not-Free = Falling 24% 29% 35% 20% 33% 34% 0% 20% 40% Free Partly-Free Not-Free 2016 2018 Internet Population ‘Internet Freedom Status’ Share of Population, Global (%) Source: Freedom on The Net Reports 2016 + 2018. Note: Freedom on the Net measures the level of Internet & digital media freedom in 65 countries. Each country receives a numerical score from 0 (the most free) to 100 (the least free), which serves as the basis for an Internet freedom status designation of FREE (0-30 points), PARTLY FREE (31-60 points), or NOT FREE (61-100 points). Ratings are determined through an examination of three broad categories – Access (Assesses infrastructural & economic barriers to access). Content Limits (Examines filtering & blocking of websites) & User Rights (Measures legal protections & restrictions on online activity; surveillance; privacy; & repercussions for online activity, such as legal prosecution, imprisonment, physical attacks, or other forms of harassment. Scores do not add to 100 owing to non-analyzed countries. 55% Political, social, or religious content is censored / blocked 47% Government Internet surveillance powers have increased over past year 47% Access to certain social media / messaging platforms have been blocked 42% Government has disconnected Internet / mobile networks often for political reasons Internet Users Live in a Country Where ______ Freedom House – Freedom on the Net (Global, 2018)
  • 191. 190 Internet Trends 2019 Global Internet Freedom Framework (Freedom House) Freedom House Freedom on The Net Index Measures a country’s level of Internet / digital media freedom, using questions derived from Article 19 of UN’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion & expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference & to seek, receive & impart information & ideas through any media regardless of frontiers. Countries are given points for: 1) Obstacles to Access; 2) Limits on Content; 3) Violations of User Rights Free Countries with low economic / infrastructural / regulatory barriers to Internet access… minimal blocking / filtering of content / information…strong privacy protections Partly-Free Countries with some barriers to Internet access (like state-owned providers handicapping competition)… some blocking of content / information (like news sites or temporary blocks on social media)… some privacy violations (like data collection requirements with weak judicial oversight) Not-Free Countries with strong barriers to Internet access (like cutting off the internet to certain regions) …strong blocking of content (news sites, opposition figures, permanent blocks on social media)… rampant privacy violations (like data localization requirements with low judicial independence, unchecked surveillance) Source: Freedom House’s Freedom on The Net Reports 2016-2018. Note: Freedom on the Net is a collaborative effort between a small team of Freedom House staff & an extensive network of local researchers & advisors in 65 countries. Freedom on the Net’s in-country researchers have diverse backgrounds—academia, blogging, traditional journalism, & tech— & track developments from their country of expertise. In the most repressive environments, Freedom House takes care to ensure researchers’ anonymity or, in exceptional cases, works with foreign nationals living outside their home country.
  • 192. 191 Internet Trends 2019 World Wide Web = Webs of Worlds Driven by Local Regulation… Internet Regulation Low High USA India China • Diverse regulatory bodies with varied / distinct powers • Privately-owned telecom infrastructure accessible to nearly all residents Internet Access Content Regulation User Regulation • Virtually no content filtering & strong free speech protections • No political censorship, strong protection for hosts of user-generated content • Some legal privacy protections related to government collection of user data • Limited regulation on encryption / secure communication • Diverse regulatory bodies, many with power to regulate access • Government initiative to increase Internet access & usage as a ‘public good’ • Event-driven content filtering often without direct public input with some speech protection • Some censorship, generally to remove ‘insulting content’ 7 Largest EU Economies* • Diverse regulatory bodies with varied / distinct powers • Privately-owned telecom infrastructure accessible to nearly all residents • Limited content filtering & free speech protections • Limited political censorship, some liability for hosts of user-generated content • Some legal privacy protections related to government collection of user data • Required government approval for encryption / secure communication • Strong legal privacy protections related to any collection of user data • Limited regulation on encryption / secure communication Note: *Based on analysis of Germany / UK / France / Italy / Spain / The Netherlands / Sweden – 7 largest economies in The European Union, representing >70% of The EU GDP in 2018 & a majority of votes in the EU Parliament…Individual policies vary across The EU, in particular, some eastern European Union countries (e.g., Hungary) significantly limit Internet freedom in stark contrast to more open EU nations. Analysis also takes into account EU-wide directives, such as GDPR. Source: Adapted from Freedom House 2018 Freedom on the Net Report. Global Internet User % as of 2018 per CIA World Factbook, United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Internet user data is as of mid-year. Internet user data: Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), estimates based on IAMAI data (India). Global Internet User % 8% 12% 21% 8%* Limited Regulation Moderate Regulation Strong Regulation Legend • Central government bodies with strong regulatory power • High government ownership / control of network infrastructure with ability to regulate access • Strong content regulation & no expectation of speech protection • Regulation to ‘create a more harmonious digital society’ • Ability to collect user data for regulatory purposes • Required government approval for encryption / secure communication
  • 193. 192 Internet Trends 2019 …World Wide Web = Webs of Worlds Driven by Local Regulation When a service provider sends an authentication request to Aadhaar (India’s National Identity System), the purpose of the authentication is not revealed; all the government knows is when someone uses his Aadhaar number, not where or why. [Aadahaar shows] India’s approach to the Internet is simple – empower users with the technical & legal tools required to take back control of their data. Nandan Nilekani – Founding Chair of Unique Identification Authority of India The GDPR has…created a blueprint that other states & organizations will study closely as they, too, seek to properly balance individuals’ rights to data protection with their other rights & with the legitimate interests of business & government. The law’s main innovation is to establish a bedrock principle of accountability. It places responsibility for properly collecting & processing personal data squarely on organizations & extends to individuals the right to prevent their data from being collected or processed. The GDPR also gives individuals the right to insist that their data be deleted. Helen Dixon – Data Protection Commissioner, Ireland In 1997, USA negotiated an agreement through the World Trade Organization that committed 67 signatory countries to ‘procompetitive regulatory telecommunications principles’… As the Internet grew more centralized & as its role expanded, policymakers failed to keep up. When it came to updating regulations for online activities…the Internet was treated as a special realm that did not need regulation & the bad guys took notice. Karen Kornbluh – Senior Fellow for Digital Policy, Council on Foreign Relations USA European Union India Global Internet Regulatory Observations per Foreign Affairs (9/18) Source: ’World War Web,’ Foreign Affairs, September / October Edition 2018 Chinese leaders want to ensure a harmonious Internet – one that guides public opinion, supports good governance & fosters economic growth but also is tightly controlled… China has promoted ‘cyber-sovereignty’ as an organizing principle of Internet governance…China envisions a world of national Internets, with government control justified by the sovereign rights of states. Adam Segal – Chair, Emerging Technologies & National Security, Council on Foreign Relations China
  • 194. 193 Internet Trends 2019 Open Internet = Can Benefit All Constituents
  • 195. 194 Internet Trends 2019 Consumers Want to Get What They Want Efficiently & Inexpensively Businesses Want to Sell Products & Services Profitably Regulators Want to Protect Consumers / Businesses / Social Institutions Open Internet = Core Constituent Motivations
  • 196. 195 Internet Trends 2019 Open Internet = Online Reviews Can Boost Multi-Sided Accountability… 25% 30% 33% 46% 45% 41% 0% 25% 50% Make Consumers Feel Confident About Purchases Make Companies Accountable to Consumers Ensure Safety of Products / Services Consumer Reviews Government Oversight Make Consumers Feel Confident About Purchases Make Companies Accountable to Consumers Ensure Safety of Products & Services Do Online Consumer Reviews / Government Oversight Help ‘A Lot’ to _________ Source: Pew Research Survey (12/15). N = 4,787 USA Consumers. Pew Survey (USA)
  • 197. 196 Internet Trends 2019 0 45MM 90MM 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Host Account & Booking Guest Reviews Airbnb Total Host / Guest Reviews on Airbnb Safety is our number one principle at Airbnb, the whole thing only works if you feel safe – we have a few hundred people on our Trust & Safety Team who really work with the Airbnb community to facilitate that. 70% of guests – when they stay on Airbnb – leave a review, which means we’ve built a system that allows the community to review properties on Airbnb & build trust. Brian Chesky – CEO, Airbnb, 4/19 Source: Total host / guest reviews per Airbnb (6/19). Each booked trip taken on Airbnb can have 0-2 reviews depending on if the host account and/or booking guest writes a review. Brian Chesky quote per interview on CBS News (4/19) …Open Internet = Online Reviews Can Boost Multi-Sided Accountability
  • 198. 197 Internet Trends 2019 Reveals / Actions / Reactions Amplified on Internet = Can Drive Transparency + Rapid Change for Consumers / Businesses / Regulators
  • 199. 198 Internet Trends 2019 Reveal / Action / Reaction… Twitter = Communication Tool for Citizens… Humanitarian Concerns JJ Watt Hurricane Harvey Relief Blood Donors India Emergency Rescue $42MM Raised… 1 Year (2017) …11K Donations… 1 Year (2017) …Accident -> Safety <3 Hours (2010) Source: Twitter (7/10-8/17)
  • 200. 199 Internet Trends 2019 …Reveal / Action / Reaction… Twitter = Communication Tool for Consumers + Businesses Consumer / Business Concerns Glossier Under Armour …New Packaging… <1 Day (2019) …New Steph Curry Shoe Sizes <1 Week (2018) Source: Twitter (4/18-4/19) Note: Under Armour included ‘Curry 5’ shoes in the ‘Girl’s Shoes’ section of their website & updated sizing nomenclature to “Grade School” rather than ‘Boys.’ Starbucks Starbucks Security Policy… <2 Days (2018)
  • 201. 200 Internet Trends 2019 Reveal / Action / Reaction… Social Media = Communication Tool for Citizens + Regulators Social Media is Important For _________ Source: Pew Survey of 4,594 USA adults (6/18). Note: Percentages = respondents who responded ‘very important’ or ‘somewhat important’ 69% Getting Government Officials to Pay Attention to Issues 67% Creating Sustained Movements for Social Change 58% Influencing Government Policy Decisions Pew Survey (USA)
  • 202. 201 Internet Trends 2019 Open Internet = Can Be Messy, But Effective… Consumer / Business / Regulators = Key to Work Together to Amplify Good + Minimize Bad
  • 203. 202 Internet Trends 2019 During the first two-decades of the Internet’s growth, too much faith was put in the technology itself. Not enough was done to address challenges such as the spread of surveillance technologies, abuse of online platforms & the general undermining of trust. …[governments] should work to establish better baselines & metrics to assess the Internet’s true impact, as well as the kinds of actions that enable the good & mitigate the bad. Advocates for the open Internet should acknowledge that regulation can help, while remaining vigilant to unintended consequences. …all of these stakeholders should continue to forge coalitions that work across borders in support of flexible, focused & rights-compliant efforts to improve freedom online. Jason Pielemeier – Policy Director, The Global Network Initiative, Council on Foreign Relations Blog, 7/18
  • 204. 203 Internet Trends 2019 1) Transparency 2) Explanation 3) Consent 4) Freedom from Bias 5) Feedback Mechanisms 6) Data Portability 7) Redress 8) Algorithmic Literacy 9) Independent Oversight 10) Federal / Global Governance Crowdsourced Algorithmic Bill of Rights, per Sigal Samuel @ Vox Source: In early 2019, Vox reached out to 10 experts (including Kartik Hosanagar – original proposer of an Algorithmic Bill of Rights) at the forefront of investigating how Artificial Intelligence risk is creeping into multiple aspects of life. Vox reporter Sigal Samuel asked them each to name a protection the public needs enshrined in law, resulting in a crowdsourced, proposed Algorithmic Bill of Rights. Full detail available - https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/5/22/18273284/ai-algorithmic-bill-of-rights-accountability-transparency-consent-bias First Step in Long Journey = An Algorithmic Bill of Rights?
  • 205. 204 Internet Trends 2019 Highly Regulated Internet = Can Favor State Control
  • 206. 205 Internet Trends 2019 I urge improving the governance capacity in cyberspace & developing a governing network led by the [Communist Party of China]. Internet media should spread positive information, uphold the correct political direction & guide public opinion & values towards the right direction. Internet service providers should take responsibility to prevent cyberspace from degrading into a platform full of harmful, false & provocative information. Xi Jinping – President of The People’s Republic of China, As Translated by Xinhua, 4/2018 Source: USA Supreme Court (6/17). As translated to English by official China State media (Xinhua, 4/18) A fundamental First Amendment principle is that all persons have access to places where they can speak & listen & then, after reflection, speak & listen once more. Today, one of the most important places to exchange views is cyberspace, particularly social media, which offers relatively unlimited, low-cost capacity for communication of all kinds. Anthony Kennedy – Former USA Supreme Court Justice – Majority Opinion, Packingham v. North Carolina, 6/2017 If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood & fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence. Louis Brandeis – Former USA Supreme Court Justice – Concurring Opinion, Whitney v. California, 5/1927
  • 207. 206 Internet Trends 2019 Cyber Attacks = Sophistication + Scope Continue to Rise
  • 208. 207 Internet Trends 2019 1) State-Sponsored Actor Attacks = Rising USA / UK / The Netherlands / Germany Have Publicly Indicted State-Actors 2) Large-Scale Data Provider Attacks = Rising Cloud Providers / Telecoms / Data Brokers Seeing Elevated Attack Activity 3) Monetary Extortion Cases = Rising Non-Attributable Currencies (e.g., Crypto) Enabling Anonymous Ransom Payments 4) Attack-to-Detection Dwell Time = Continues To Fall Average Days = 78 (2018)…101 (2017)…416 (2011) Cyber Attacks = Evolving Sponsors / Targets / Asks / Detection Source: FireEye M-Trends Report 2019
  • 209. 208 Internet Trends 2019 Cyber Attacks = Opportunities Created by Online System Weaknesses 25% 31% 0% 20% 40% 2017 2018 Data Center Operators – Downtime Experienced in Past Year per Uptime Institute Share of Respondents (%) Source: Uptime Institute 2018 Report. FireEye Note: Uptime Institute is a professional services organization best known for its data center tier standards for data center uptime. Each year, it conducts a survey of 900 data center operators on a variety of topics, including data center outages. A financial services firm engaged a Mandiant Red Team to evaluate the effectiveness of its information security team’s detection, prevention & response capabilities. The team was able to obtain full administrative control of the company domain & compromise all critical business applications without any software or operating system exploits. Instead, the team focused on identifying system misconfigurations, conducting social engineering attacks & using the client’s internal tools & documentation. FireEye Threat Research, 4/19
  • 210. 209 Internet Trends 2019 2-Factor Authentication = Incomplete Adoption Limits Effectiveness 54% 52% 0% 30% 60% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % Sites Supporting 2-Factor Authentication, Global* Source: Elie Bursztein (Security & Anti-Abuse Lead @ Google). analysis of dongleauth.info database data (12/18). FireEye (4/19) Security experts have seen a significant uptick in the number of clients securing their VPN or remote access infrastructure with multi-factor authentication. However, there is frequently a lack of multi-factor authentication for applications being accessed from within the internal corporate network. FireEye Threat Research, 4/19
  • 211. 210 Internet Trends 2019 Cyber Attacks = Increasingly Focused on Sensitive Data 178MM 37MM 198MM 447MM 0 250MM 500MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Identity Theft Resource Center (2014-2018). MalwareBytes 2019 State of Malware Report. Note: Trojan malware = malware specifically designed to evade detection by security software. Observed volume calculated as an average of monthly observations for a quarter. A sensitive record defined as personal information that could be used to commit a crime against a victim exposed due to an online security breach (e.g., bank credentials being accessed illicitly). Variation in number of records often driven by large individual breaches. In 2015, Anthem Health revealed 78MM personal records via breach. In 2017 Equifax exposed ~150MM personal records via breach. In 2018, Marriott International exposed ~383MM records via breach. Sensitive Records Exposed in Security Breaches Annual Records Exposed in Security Breaches, Global As more & more customers move to software as a service & cloud, attackers are following data. Attacks against cloud providers, telecoms & other organizations with access to large amounts of data… increased in 2018. FireEye M-Trends Report 2018
  • 212. 211 Internet Trends 2019 States are using the tools of cyberwarfare to undermine the very foundation of the Internet: trust. They are hacking into banks, meddling in elections, stealing intellectual property & bringing private companies to a standstill. The result is that an arena that the world relies on for economic & informational exchange has turned into an active battlefield. Cyber-operations are emblematic of a new style of competition… In operation after operation, many of them hardly registered by the wider world, states are weaponizing the Internet. All these incidents occurred in a gray zone of conflict – below the threshold of outright war but above that of purely peacetime behavior. Michèle Flournoy & Michael Sulmeyer – Co-Founders, WestExec Advisors, Foreign Affairs, 9/18 Cyber Attacks = Effects Amplified by State Sponsorship
  • 213. 212 Internet Trends 2019 WORK = STRONG ECONOMIC INDICATORS… INTERNET-ENABLED SERVICES / JOBS HELPING
  • 214. 213 Internet Trends 2019 Global Relative GDP (Current $) = China + USA + India Rising…Europe Falling Global GDP Contribution (Current $) Source: World Bank (GDP in current $). Other countries account for ~30% of global GDP. 0% 20% 40% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 % of Global GDP USA Europe China India Latin America 26% 22% 4% 15% 40% 25% 3% 7% 3% 6% 2017
  • 215. 214 Internet Trends 2019 Cross-Border Trade = 29% of Global GDP… Foundational to Global Economy 0% 20% 40% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Trade as % of Global GDP % of Global GDP 2017 Source: World Bank. Note: ‘World Trade’ refers to the average of Imports & Exports (to account for goods in-transit between years) for all nations.
  • 216. 215 Internet Trends 2019 Global Relative Unemployment Concern = High… USA = Low… Are unemployment & jobs among top three worries for your home country? Ipsos / Reuters Surveys % Respondents Answering Positively Source: Ipsos Survey Data of ~20K global respondents. Ipsos conducts this survey on a monthly basis, asking the same questions of a statistically representative sample of >1K people in 28 representative countries. February 2017 included owing to lack of published March 2017 report. World average reflects average of Germany, Israel, UK, USA, Belgium, Japan, Poland, Sweden, China, Hungary, Peru, Turkey, India, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, France, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Italy & Spain. 38% 24% 34% 17% 33% 11% 0% 20% 40% 2/17 3/18 3/19 2/17 3/18 3/19 World Average USA
  • 217. 216 Internet Trends 2019 …Global Relative Unemployment Concern… USA = Materially Below Other Countries… Source: Ipsos Survey Data of ~20K global respondents. Ipsos conducts this survey on a monthly basis, asking the same questions of a statistically representative sample of >1K people in USA & other countries. Note: Percentages do not add to 100% because respondents were allowed to pick 3 choices. . .’ Rank Country Share 1 Italy 69% 2 South Korea 66% 3 Spain 61% 4 South Africa 57% 5 Argentina 49% 6 India 44% 7 Turkey 44% 8 Mexico 38% 9 Brazil 35% 10 Saudi Arabia 34% 11 Russia 33% 12 France 32% 13 Australia 30% Are unemployment & jobs among top three worries for your home country? Ipsos / Reuters Survey (3/19) Rank Country Share 14 China 29% 15 Canada 27% 16 Belgium 24% 17 Peru 22% 18 Japan 19% 19 Israel 18% 20 Hungary 17% 21 Sweden 15% 22 Poland 15% 23 UK 14% 24 Germany 11% 25 USA 11%
  • 218. 217 Internet Trends 2019 …USA Relative Unemployment Concern = Low & Falling Rank Concern Share 1 Healthcare 39% 2 Financial/Political Corruption 28% 3 Immigration 28% 4 Moral Decline 26% 5 Crime & Violence 22% 6 Poverty & Social Inequality 21% 7 Climate Change 21% 8 Extremism 19% 9 Terrorism 18% 10 Education 15% 11 Taxes 15% 12 Unemployment & Jobs 11% 13 Environmental Threats 10% 14 Inflation 6% 15 Maintaining Social Programs 6% 16 Childhood Obesity 4% 17 Access To Credit 0% Rank Concern Share 1 Crime & Violence 35% 2 Healthcare 33% 3 Terrorism 29% 4 Financial/Political Corruption 23% 5 Immigration 23% 6 Moral Decline 23% 7 Poverty & Social Inequality 19% 8 Unemployment & Jobs 17% 9 Extremism 15% 10 Education 15% 11 Taxes 14% 12 Climate Change 12% 13 Environmental Threats 10% 14 Inflation 7% 15 Maintaining Social Programs 5% 16 Childhood Obesity 2% 17 Access To Credit 2% Rank Concern Share 1 Healthcare 36% 2 Crime & Violence 33% 3 Terrorism 31% 4 Unemployment & Jobs 24% 5 Financial/Political Corruption 22% 6 Immigration 21% 7 Moral Decline 20% 8 Poverty & Social Inequality 19% 9 Taxes 17% 10 Education 16% 11 Climate Change 13% 12 Extremism 12% 13 Environmental Threats 9% 14 Maintaining Social Programs 7% 15 Inflation 6% 16 Childhood Obesity 3% 17 Access To Credit 2% Which of following are top three worries for your home country (USA)? Ipsos / Reuters Surveys February 2017 March 2018 March 2019 Source: Ipsos Survey Data of ~20K global respondents. Ipsos conducts this survey on a monthly basis, asking the same questions of a statistically representative sample of >1K people in USA. Note: Percentages do not add to 100% because respondents were allowed to pick 3 choices.
  • 219. 218 Internet Trends 2019 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database. Note: Indexed to Q1:66 = 100. Consumer Confidence Index (Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index) is a broad measure of American consumer sentiment, as measured through a 50-question telephone survey of at least 500 USA residents each month. 0 60 120 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 CCI (Indexed to 1966), USA Consumer Confidence Index (USA) = High & Rising… @ 97 vs. 88 Sixty-Five Year Average Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 88 = 65-Year Average
  • 220. 219 Internet Trends 2019 Economy / Employment (USA) = Unemployment @ 19 Year Low… Job Openings @ All-Time High…Wages Rising 0% 15% 30% $0 $12T $24T 1928 1958 1988 2018 Unemployment Rate Real GDP Real GDP vs. Unemployment Rate, USA 0 5MM 10MM 2000 2006 2012 2018 Job Openings* Job Openings, USA $320 $340 $360 2000 2006 2012 2018 Median Real Weekly Earnings, All Workers Over 16, USA Civilian Unemployment Real GDP Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database, Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS. Note: Real GDP based on chained 2012 dollars. Unemployment rate = annual average. *A job opening is defined as a non-farm specific position of employment to be filled at an establishment. Conditions include the following: there is work available for that position, the job could start within 30 days & the employer is actively recruiting for the position. Wages refers to usual weekly earnings of wage & salary workers. Usual weekly earnings represent earnings before taxes & other deductions & include any overtime pay, commissions, or tips usually received (at the main job in the case of multiple jobholders). Usual definition per discretion of interviewee. Median Usual Weekly Wage
  • 221. 220 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Work = Creating Internet-Enabled Opportunities + Efficiencies
  • 222. 221 Internet Trends 2019 Small Business Enabling Payment Processors = Strong Growth Stripe Connect – Marketplace Volume Impact* Per Forrester Source: Square SEC filings. Forrester Total Economic Impact Survey on Stripe Connect (Stripe’s Marketplace Product) (7/18). Note: A Total Economic Impact Study is a framework to identify the cost, benefit, flexibility & risk factors for an investment decision. Forrester took a multistep approach to evaluate the impact that Stripe Connect can have on an organization, including stakeholder interviews, customer interviews, the development of a composite organization based on the characteristics of interviewed Stripe customers & a financial model that incorporates the effects / risks of Stripe Connect, as identified by Stripe’s customers. Based on interview feedback, Forrester determined that a composite organizations would likely have $475MM in annual transaction volume prior to using Stripe Connect & that Stripe Connect’s features (e.g., improved seller settlement) would result in increased volume of $47.7MM in Year 1, $66.1MM in Year 2 & $90.6MM in Year 3. +6.7% $0 $50B $100B 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Square Gross Payment Volume, Global Square Gross Payment Volume 100% 110% 120% Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
  • 223. 222 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Services = Growing Rapidly…Benefitting Local Merchants ~5% of [USA] restaurant business’s $800B in annual sales is delivered – we’re still in the very early innings of the development of on-demand delivery & services. We started DoorDash to help local businesses… ‘local’ has long been the promise of E-Commerce but no one has found a way to help local merchants thrive online – that is the space we focus on. We do this by enabling local merchants to participate in selling convenience. There are a lot of merchants who are ready to make the transition from selling experiences to also selling convenience, which can often reduce their costs. I think this is the biggest business model change in commerce. Tony Xu – Founder / CEO, DoorDash, 6/19
  • 224. 223 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Consumers = 56MM + ~2x in Two Years On-Demand Consumers, USA Source: National Technology Readiness Survey (4/18). Note: authored by Rockbridge Associates, Inc. & A. Parasuraman & is co- sponsored by the Center for Excellence in Service, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. The study is conducted online among a representative sample of consumers in a national panel & represents the views of U.S. adults ages 18 & older. The sample size was 1,032 in 2016 & 1,004 in 2017. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. 2018 figures are estimates. On-Demand Products / Services – Consumer Spend, 2017, USA 25MM 56MM 0 30MM 60MM 2016 2017 2018 On-Demand Consumers $0 $15B $30B Other Health & Beauty Food Delivery Housing Transportation Online Marketplaces Consumer Spend, 2017, USA
  • 225. 224 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Workers = ~7MM +22% Y/Y On-Demand Platform Workers, USA Source: Emergent Research (2015-2018) + Intuit (2017). Note: On-demand workers defined as online marketplace workers including transportation and/or logistics for people or products, online talent marketplaces, renting out space. Providing other miscellaneous consumer & business services (e.g. TaskRabbit, Gigwalk, Wonolo, etc.). Workers defined as ‘active’ employees that have done ’significant’ on-demand work within the preceding 6 months. 2.4MM 3.9MM 5.4MM 6.6MM 0 4MM 8MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 On-Demand Workers
  • 226. 225 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Workers = >20MM Applicants on Checkr Platform Since 2015, USA Source: Checkr (2019) 0 5MM 10MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 As the on-demand economy continues to evolve & transform the world around us, we're seeing a rapid increase in new & supplemental job creation. Increasingly, this type of work has become a key driver of economic growth. Checkr has a front row seat in the on-demand economy, not only to watch the changes unfold, but also to provide solutions that shape & strengthen it. Our technology is designed to give employers the information they need to make informed decisions about their candidates, while helping them scale & grow their business. Daniel Yanisse – Co-Founder / CEO, Checkr, 6/19 Checkr On-Demand Platform Applicants, USA Annual Checkr Applicants, USA
  • 227. 226 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Work = Creating Internet-Enabled Benefits On-Demand Work – Motivations, USA 14% 18% 22% 24% 27% 29% 47% 0% 25% 50% Take Care of Parents Want to Work with Others Additional Income Flexible Work Hours Previously Underemployed Learn New Skills Previously Unemployed % of Respondents Source: Wonolo (7/18). N = 1,400 survey respondents
  • 228. 227 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Platforms = Big Numbers + High Growth Real-Time Platforms Internet-Enabled Marketplaces 0 3MM 6MM $0 $30B $60B 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Driver-Partners, Global Gross Bookings, Global Gross Bookings Driver-Partners Uber @ 4MM Driver-Partners 0 0.7MM 1.4MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Lifetime Dashers, Global Lifetime Dashers DoorDash @ 1.3MM Dashers 0 125K 250K 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Onboarded Workers, Global Onboarded Workers Wonolo @ 230K Workers 0 2MM 4MM $0 $2B $4B 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sellers, Global Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS), Global GMS Sellers Etsy @ 2MM Sellers 0 3MM 6MM 0 125MM 250MM 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Active Listings, Global Guest Arrivals, Global Guest Arrivals Active Listings Airbnb @ 6MM Listings Uber Source: Uber DoorDash Source: DoorDash. Note: Lifetime Dashers defined as the total number of people that have dashed on the platform through the end of each year. 2019 figures are as of 5/19. Etsy Source: Etsy. Airbnb Source: Airbnb, Note: Airbnb 2017 & 2018 Guest arrivals based on estimates from total guest arrivals disclosures in 2018 & 2019. 500MM guest arrivals have occurred via Airbnb as of 2019. VIPKid Source: Company Press Releases (3/19). Wonolo Source: Wonolo. VIPKid @ 70K Teachers 0 450K 900K 2017 2018 2019 0 55K 110K Teachers Students Students, Global Teachers, Global
  • 229. 228 Internet Trends 2019 Remote Work = Creating Internet-Enabled Work Opportunities + Efficiencies
  • 230. 229 Internet Trends 2019 Remote Workers = Rising… ~5% of Americans vs. ~3% in 2000 3% 5% 0% 3% 6% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 % Total – Remote Workers Source: USA census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) (2000-2017). Note: The US Census releases the ACS survey results in September for the previous year. ACS = Survey of ~3.5MM Americans over the course of a year. % Workers Working Remotely, USA
  • 231. 230 Internet Trends 2019 Remote Workers = Enabled by Online Collaboration Tools At Zapier, we’ve found that by using a stack of collaboration tools that work well together, our 100% remote team is able to work more efficiently, regardless of where they’re located. It’s important for us to have the ability to instantly access a folder, collaborate on a shared document, or chat in real time. With well-connected tools & processes, any remote employee can feel more focused, productive & in control of their time. Wade Foster – Co-Founder / CEO, Zapier, 6/19 Remote Workforce (Zapier) 1) Slack 2) Google Sheets 3) Airtable 4) Help Scout +42% +59% +37% +101% Highest-Use Apps on Zapier By Remote Teams Y/Y Growth 1/18-1/19 Source: Zapier (6/19). Note Y/Y growth refers to growth in engagement with productivity tools from January 2018 to January 2019 specifically at remote teams who use Zapier for automation.
  • 232. 231 Internet Trends 2019 Remote Work = Creating Internet-Enabled Benefits Remote Work – Benefits 3% 13% 14% 30% 47% 0% 25% 50% Other Able to Work from Home More Time with Family Ability to Travel Flexible Work Hours % of Respondents Source: Buffer in partnership with Doist, Hubstaff, Remote-How, RemoteYear, Trello, Workfrom & We Work Remotely, State of Remote Work 2019. N = 2,471 respondents globally.
  • 233. 232 Internet Trends 2019 Zoom by Day…Fortnite by Night? Work (via Zoom)… …Play (via Fortnite) Source: Canva (Pixabay). Nintendo.
  • 234. 233 Internet Trends 2019 ONLINE EDUCATION = BIG NUMBERS + BIG GROWTH
  • 236. 235 Internet Trends 2019 Education Costs = Rising Annual Undergraduate Tuition & Fees, USA Undergraduate Tuition & Fees 0 $20K $40K 1973 1982 1991 2000 2009 2018 Source: Tuition & Fees = College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment data. Average tuition & fee prices reflect in-district charges for public two-year institutions & in-state charges for public four-year institutions. All figures in 2018 dollars. Debt = College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment data. Average tuition & fee prices reflect in-district charges for public two-year institutions & in-state charges for public four-year institutions. All figures in 2018 dollars. Private Non-Profit 4-Year Public 4-Year Student Loan Debt 0 $1T $2T 2003 2008 2013 2018 Student Loan Debt, USA
  • 238. 237 Internet Trends 2019 Offline Education Enrollment = Slowing Source: National Center for Education Statistics (3/18). 2017-2018 are estimates supplied by Chegg. *Note: Decline in Post-Secondary Students only taking offline courses partly driven by student demographics (e.g., an older student base more likely to be employed while at school). Data through 1995 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees & participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. The degree-granting classification is very similar to the earlier higher education classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges & excludes a few higher education institutions that did not grant degrees. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Undergraduate Enrollments, USA Post-Secondary Education – Enrollments* Post-Secondary Students – % in Only Offline Courses 74% 67% 0% 50% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year = School Year Beginning in Fall 0 13MM 26MM 1970 1986 2002 2018 2 Year Undergraduate 4 Year Undergraduate Any Graduate % Students Taking Only Offline Courses, USA
  • 239. 238 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education / Learning = Offline Institutions Expanding Reach
  • 240. 239 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education Enrollment = High Across Diverse Base of Universities Source: Babson Survey Research Group Grade Increase: Tracking Distance Education in the United States (2018) Institution Enrollment University of Phoenix – Arizona 129K Grand Canyon University 69 Walden University 53 American Public University System 49 Ashford University 41 Capella University 38 Kaplan University – Davenport 37 Colorado Technical University 25 Chamberlain College of Nursing 24 Columbia Southern University 23 Full Sail University 21 DeVry University-Illinois 19 Total Enrollment 528K Institution Enrollment University of Maryland 51K University of Central Florida 36 Ivy Tech Community College 35 Arizona State University 31 University of Florida 31 Florida International University 30 Lone Star College System 23 University of South Florida 22 University of Texas Arlington 21 Houston Community College 19 Valencia College 18 California State – Northridge 17 St Petersburg College 16 Texas Tech University 16 Penn State University – Main 16 College of Southern Nevada 15 Kent State University 15 Florida State University 15 University of Houston 15 University of Cincinnati 14 University of Illinois at U-C 14 Ohio State University – Main 14 Penn State University – World 13 University of North Texas 13 Utah State University 13 N. Virginia Community College 13 University of Arizona 13 Northern Arizona University 13 California State – Fullerton 13 Total Enrollment 576K Institution Enrollment Western Governors University 84K Liberty University 68 Southern New Hampshire U. 64 Excelsior College 42 Brigham Young University 36 Ultimate Medical Academy 16 Embry-Riddle 13 National University California 13 Total Enrollment 336K Top 50 USA Post-Secondary Online Enrollment Leaders (2017) Public Private – For Profit Private – Not For Profit
  • 241. 240 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education Courses = Top Offline Institutions Ramping Online Offerings 2016 2017 2018 2019 Degree Programs @ Top Institutions Moving Online via Coursera University of Illinois Master of Business Administration Master of Computer Science HEC Paris MSc of Innovation & Entrepreneurship Arizona State University Master of Computer Science University of Pennsylvania Master of Computer Information & Technology University of Illinois Master of Science in Accountancy University of London Bachelor of Science in Computer Science Macquarie University Global MBA University of Michigan Master of Public Health Master of Applied Data Science Imperial College London Master of Public Health Master of Applied Data Science Source: Coursera (6/19). Note: Data reflects first year of program offering of active programs on Coursera. University of Colorado Boulder Master of Science in Electrical Engineering
  • 242. 241 Internet Trends 2019 …Online Education / Learning Platforms = Scaling…Different Shapes & Sizes
  • 243. 242 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education Program Managers = 2U Cumulative Classes Broadcast Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research (5/18). Christopher Paucek Interview with Code (11/18). 0 300K 600K 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Thousands Online Graduate Programs Live / Real-Time University Classes Broadcast on 2U Why should you pick up your life, quit your job & move to attend school if you can get everything you would receive normally from that experience over the Internet… but not sacrifice either quality or the level of relationships – between students & faculty or students & fellow students. [You can] become a full member of that community, getting the same degree & the same level of access. Christopher Paucek – Co-Founder & CEO 2U, 11/18 2U – Post-Secondary (USA)
  • 244. 243 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education Marketplaces = Coursera… Source: Coursera. Note: Course popularity based on average daily enrollments. Graph shows learners as of 12/18. Machine Learning Stanford Learning How to Learn: Powerful Mental Tools to Help You Master Tough Subjects UC San Diego The Science of Well-Being Yale Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Technologies Princeton Algorithms, Part I Princeton English for Career Development University of Pennsylvania Financial Markets Yale Introduction to Psychology University of Toronto Cómo Hacer una Tesis Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Chinese for Beginners Peking University Top Courses, 2018 Learners 0 20MM 40MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Registered Learners 30% 28% 20% 11% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% North America Asia Europe South America Africa Learners by Geography Coursera – Post-Secondary (Global)
  • 245. 244 Internet Trends 2019 …Online Education Marketplaces = Udemy Instructors + Students Source: Udemy (5/19). 0 25K 50K 0 16MM 32MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 Students (Blue Bar) Instructors (Red Line) Udemy – Continuing Education (Global) From day one, we wanted to create a destination where anyone could learn skills to improve their life at an affordable price. Since most of our students learn in order to advance at work, we have also focused on building an enterprise solution with over 3,000 curated courses that focus on business-relevant skills. This has been one of the fastest-growing portions of our business, with customers growing +13x since 2015. Eren Bali – Co-Founder, Udemy, 5/19 Education Marketplace 200MM+ Enrollments in 100K+ Courses
  • 246. 245 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education (Post-Graduation Income Sharing) = Lambda School 0 1K 2K 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19 Active Lambda School Students Students Lambda School – Post-Secondary (Global) Income Share Agreements Source: Lambda School (6/19). The traditional higher education model downloads the financial risks to the students. Universities aren’t incentivized to help students succeed because tuition is paid up front. Not at Lambda School. We only succeed when our students do – with our ISA model, students pay no tuition until they have landed a job earning $50K or more. By aligning the incentives of Lambda School with those of the student, we eliminate the financial risk. Ultimately, we help people with raw talent refine their skills & match them with great, high-paying careers they love. Austen Allred – Co-Founder & CEO, Lambda School, 6/19
  • 247. 246 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education Learning Tools = Chegg… 0 2MM 4MM 2015 2016 2017 2018 Services Subscribers Source: Chegg, Dan Rosensweig presenting @ Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, Telecom Conference (2/19). Services Subscribers Chegg – Post-Secondary (USA) Subscription Education Support If you learn better by just walking through the steps, if you learn better by asking questions, if you learn better by watching videos, we teach you that way. We are constantly expanding the way we can teach you & the subjects that we're available for, the speed in which we can get you the answer back, the format in which you can consume it. Dan Rosensweig – CEO, Chegg, 2/19
  • 248. 247 Internet Trends 2019 …Online Education Learning Tools = Quizlet… 0 30MM 60MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Monthly Active Users Source: Quizlet eCampus News Interview (4/19). Monthly Active Users Quizlet – Consumer Learning (Global) Customizable Learning Tools We recognize that technological innovation will continue to evolve jobs of the future. Educators have the power to equip students with evergreen skills that will always be necessary in a career, like learning how to learn & fostering a sense of curiosity to take throughout life. Students can really benefit from teachers setting a precedent that ongoing learning is normal & healthy so that incoming employees are agile & able to take on whatever comes their way. Matthew Glotzbach – CEO, Quizlet, 4/19
  • 249. 248 Internet Trends 2019 …Online Education Learning Tools = Remind Source: Remind (6/19). Peak total monthly active users. Consists primarily of USA + Canada users. Teacher-Student-Parent Communication Monthly Active Users 0 20MM 40MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Monthly Active Users Remind – K-12 + Post-Secondary (North America)
  • 250. 249 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education (Remote Video Chat) = VIPKid Source: VIPKid (3/19). Students + Teachers 30K 70K 200K 600K 0 350K 700K 2017 2018 2019 VIPKid Students & Teachers VIPKid – Students Age 4-15 (China) + Teachers (North America) Students Teachers Remote Language Instruction
  • 251. 250 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education (Virtual Classrooms) = Byju’s Source: Byju’s (5/19). Paying Students 0 1MM 2MM 3/16 3/17 3/18 3/19 Paying Students Byju’s – Students Age 9-17 (India) Video-Based Classes
  • 252. 251 Internet Trends 2019 Online Learning (Broad-Based Video) = YouTube Educational Content Selected Education Channel Subscribers 9MM 5MM 0 5MM 10MM Crash Course TED- Ed Asap SCIENCE Smarter Every Day Khan Academy Subscribers 2013 2019 Source: Google / YouTube (5/19), Pearson / The Harris Poll Beyond Millennials: the Next Generation of Learners survey (8/18). Survey includes 2,587 USA respondents ages 14-40 years old. Note: Hours of ‘How-To’ videos are for the year 2017 and represent videos with ‘How-To’ in the title. Booktubers are content creators that share book reviews & discussion groups on YouTube. Views are cumulative. 4.5B Annual Hours of ‘How-To’ Video Viewership 200MM+ Views on Booktuber Content 59% Gen Z Users Cite YouTube as Preferred Learning Tool YouTube
  • 253. 252 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education (Job-Relevant Skills)… Google = Certifications for In-Demand Jobs... $49 Monthly Cost of Coursera Program Courses 8 Months Average Time Needed to Complete Program 10K+ Learners Who Have Received Financial Support from Google 0 60K 120K 3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 3/19 Coursera = Cumulative Program Enrollments ‘Grow With Google’ IT Support Professional Certificate Source: Coursera (6/19).
  • 254. 253 Internet Trends 2019 …Online Education (Job-Relevant Skills)… Coursera = ~80% Revenue…Business / Tech / Data Science… Data Science 31% Technology 25% Business 23% Other 21% Job-Relevant Skills, per Coursera* Coursera Consumer Learner Revenue by Course Domain, 2018 Top Specializations, 2018 Source: Coursera (6/19)
  • 255. 254 Internet Trends 2019 …Online Education (Job-Relevant Skills)… Skill Building = Increasingly Offered by Employers 0 1K 2K 3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 3/19 Source: Coursera (6/19). Note: a Coursera enterprise partner is a company engaged with Coursera to provide employee skillbuilding programs based on Coursera content Coursera Enterprise Partners Coursera Enterprise Partners
  • 256. 255 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education = High Interest… Retention / Completion Rates Vary
  • 257. 256 Internet Trends 2019 Online Learning (Massive Open Online Courses – MOOCs) = Strong Growth…Completion / Retention Rates Vary Source: Coursera (6/19). Note: Completion rate refers to the number of students that finish a course vs. the number that began the course. 4% 50% 0% 50% 100% Free Paid 44% 0% 50% 100% Paid 89% 0% 50% 100% Paid Enterprise Non-Degree Consumer Degree Consumer Coursera – Course Completion Rate, 2018 Unpaid Learners Paid Learners Enterprise Learners Paid Degree Learners
  • 258. 257 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education = More Growth + More Users + More Choice… Lower Cost for Consumers
  • 259. 258 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education Costs = Can Be Lower vs. Offline $55K $145K $55K $65K $0 $80K $160K Undergraduate Degree Tuition / Fees (4 Years) Arizona Resident Non- Resident Offline The key to lowering cost is the introduction of technology & new methods that help student success. The key to stimulating [this] innovation is to change the focus of the culture at a university from the faculty to the students. If you change the focus from faculty‐centric to student‐centric, you realize you need more tools to achieve certain objectives. At Arizona State, we need tools for active learning, adaptive learning (advising tools, artificial intelligence‐based simulation tools & gaming tools) all in addition to the faculty & advisors that we have. Innovation is absolutely essential when you start thinking about the success of every student. Michael Crow – President, Arizona State University, 6/16 Source: Arizona State University (5/19). Wiley Online Library Interview (6/16) Online Education Programs / Tool Arizona State University Arizona Resident Non- Resident Online
  • 260. 259 Internet Trends 2019 IMMIGRATION = IMPORTANT TO USA TECHNOLOGY LEADERSHIP
  • 261. 260 Internet Trends 2019 USA = 60% of Most Highly Valued Tech Companies Founded By… 1st or 2nd Generation Americans…1.9MM Employees, 2018 Immigrant Founders / Co-Founders of Top 25 USA Valued Public Tech Companies, Ranked by Market Capitalization Source: CapIQ as of 6/7/19. *While Andy Grove (from Hungary) is not a co-founder of Intel, he joined as COO on the day it was incorporated. **Francisco D’Souza is a person of Indian origin born in Kenya. ***Max Levchin / Luke Nosek / Peter Thiel’s startup Confinity merged with Elon Musk’s startup X.com to form PayPal in 3/00. Rank Company Mkt Cap ($B) LTM Rev ($B) Employees (K) Founder / Co-Founder (1st or 2nd Gen Immigrant) Generation 1 Microsoft $1,007B $122B 131K -- -- 2 Amazon 888 242 648 Jeff Bezos 2nd, Cuba 3 Apple 875 258 132 Steve Jobs 2nd, Syria 4 Alphabet / Google 741 142 99 Sergey Brin 1st, Russia 5 Facebook 495 59 36 Eduardo Saverin 1st, Brazil 6 Cisco 239 51 74 -- -- 7 Intel 206 71 107 --* -- 8 Oracle 182 40 137 Larry Ellison / Bob Miner 2nd, Russia / 2nd, Iran 9 Netflix 158 17 7 -- -- 10 Adobe 136 10 21 -- -- 11 PayPal 134 16 22 Max Levchin / Luke Nosek / Peter Thiel / Elon Musk*** 1st, Ukraine / 1st, Poland / 1st, Germany / 1st, South Africa 12 Salesforce 125 14 35 -- -- 13 IBM 118 79 351 Herman Hollerith 2nd, Germany 14 Texas Instruments 104 16 30 Cecil Green / J. Erik Jonsson 1st, UK / 2nd, Sweden 15 NVIDIA 89 11 13 Jensen Huang 1st, Taiwan 16 Qualcomm 84 21 35 Andrew Viterbi 1st, Italy 17 Booking.com 77 14 25 -- -- 18 Uber 75 12 22 Garrett Camp 1st, Canada 19 Automatic Data Processing 73 14 57 Henry Taub 2nd, Poland 20 VMware 69 9 23 Edouard Bugnion 1st, Switzerland 21 Intuit 67 7 9 -- -- 22 ServiceNow 51 3 8 -- -- 23 Workday 48 3 11 Aneel Bhusri 2nd, India 24 Micron 38 30 36 -- -- 25 Cognizant 36 16 282 Francisco D'Souza / Kumar Mahadeva 1st, India** / 1st, Sri Lanka
  • 262. 261 Internet Trends 2019 USA = Many Highly Valued Private Tech Companies Founded By… 1st Generation Immigrants Source for Valuation & Founders Backgrounds: Based on analysis by Pitchbook, Wall Street Journal, CB Insights, Forbes, Business Insider, & the National Foundation for American Policy. *UiPath is headquartered in New York, NY but was originally founded in Romania. Company Founder / Country of Origin Valuation Co-Founder ($B) WeWork Adam Neumann Israel $47B SpaceX Elon Musk South Africa 31 Stripe John Collison Ireland 23 Patrick Collison Palantir Peter Thiel Germany 21 Epic Games Mark Rein Canada 15 DoorDash Tony Xu China 13 Wish Peter Szulczewski Canada 9 Danny Zhang Instacart Apoorva Mehta India 8 Slack Stewart Butterfield Canada 7 Serguei Mourachov Russia Cal Henderson UK UiPath* Daniel Dines Romania 7 Marius Tirca Tanium David Hindawi Iraq 7 Unity Technologies David Helgason Iceland 6 Nicholas Francis Denmark Joachim Ante Germany Robinhood Baiju Bhatt India 6 Vlad Tenev Bulgaria Compass Ori Allon Israel 4 Credit Karma Kenneth Lin China 4 Houzz Adi Tatarko Israel 4 Alon Cohen Snowflake Marcin Zukowski Netherlands 4 Benoit Dageville France Thierry Cruanes France Rubrik Bipul Sinha India 3 Arvind Nithrakashyap India Arvind Jain India Soham Mazumdar India Zoox Tim Kentley-Klay Australia 3 Oscar Health Mario Schlosser Germany 3 Company Founder / Country of Origin Valuation Co-Founder ($B) Crowdstrike Dmitri Alperovitch Russia $3B Affirm Max Levchin Ukraine 3 Databricks Ali Ghodsi Sweden 3 Matei Zaharia Romania Ion Stoica Romania Nuro Jiajun Zhu China 3 Dave Ferguson New Zealand Automation Anywhere Ankur Kothari India 3 Mihir Shukla India Neeti Metha Shukia India Rushabh Parm India Confluent Jun Rao China 3 Neha Narkhede India Roblox David Baszucki Canada 2 Medallia Borge Hald Norway 2 Lime Toby Sun China 2 Brad Bao Zume Pizza Alex Garden Canada 2 Gusto Tomer London Israel 2 Lemonade Shai Wininger Israel 2 Daniel Schreiber LegalZoom Brian Lee South Korea 2 Avant Al Goldstein Uzbekistan 2 John Sun China Paul Zhang China Apttus Krik Krappe UK 2 Postmates Bastian Lehmann Germany 2 Sprinklr Ragy Thomas India 2 Cloudflare Michelle Zatlyn Canada 2 Carta Manu Kumar India 2 ZocDoc Oliver Kharraz Germany 2 Warby Parker Dave Gilboa Sweden 2 Carbon3D Alex Ermoshkin Russia 2 Pony.ai James Peng China 2 Tiancheng Lo ServiceTitan Ara Mahdessian Iran 2 Vahe Kuzoyan Armenia Segment Ilya Volodarsky Russia 2 Quanergy Tianyue Yu China 2
  • 263. 262 Internet Trends 2019 USA = 14% of Population Foreign-Born & Rising… Near All-Time High (1910) @ 15% Source: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) tabulation of data from U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2017 American Community Surveys (ACS) & 1970, 1990 & 2000 Decennial Census. All other data are from Campbell J. Gibson & Emily Lennon, "Historical Census Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States: 1850 to 1990" (Working Paper no. 29., U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 1999). Note: The term "immigrants" (also known as the foreign born) refers to people residing in the United States who were not U.S. citizens at birth. This population includes naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents (LPRs), certain legal nonimmigrants (e.g., persons on student or work visas), those admitted under refugee or asylee status & persons illegally residing in the United States. Population growth figures from St. Louis FRED database. 0% 8% 16% 0 180MM 360MM 1907 1929 1951 1973 1995 2017 Foreign-Born Population USA-Born Population Foreign % Total USA Population (Blue + Grey Area) Foreign-Born % of Total (Red Line) USA Population vs. Foreign-Born % of Total Population
  • 264. 263 Internet Trends 2019 USA INC.* = WHERE YOUR TAX DOLLARS GO *USA, Inc. Full Report – bondcap.com/report/usa/
  • 265. 264 Internet Trends 2019 USA Income Statement = -18% Average Net Margin Over 30 Years USA Income Statement Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget. *Individual & corporate income taxes include capital gains taxes. Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September. Non-defense discretionary includes federal spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions. F1988 F1993 F1998 F2003 F2008 F2013 F2018 Comments Revenue ($B) $909 $1,154 $1,722 $1,782 $2,524 $2,775 $3,330 Y/Y Growth 6% 6% 9% (4%) (2%) 13% 0% +5% Y/Y average, 1988-2018 Individual Income Taxes* $401 $510 $829 $794 $1,146 $1,316 $1,684 Largest driver of revenue % of Revenue 44% 44% 48% 45% 45% 47% 51% Social Insurance Taxes $334 $428 $572 $713 $900 $948 $1,171 Social Security & Medicare payroll tax % of Revenue 37% 37% 33% 40% 36% 34% 35% Corporate Income Taxes* $95 $118 $189 $132 $304 $274 $205 Fluctuates with economic conditions % of Revenue 10% 10% 11% 7% 12% 10% 6% Other $79 $99 $133 $144 $174 $237 $271 Estate & gift taxes, duties / fees… % of Revenue 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% Expense ($B) $1,064 $1,409 $1,652 $2,160 $2,983 $3,455 $4,109 Y/Y Growth 6% 2% 3% 7% 9% (2%) 3% Entitlement / Mandatory $448 $671 $859 $1,182 $1,595 $2,032 $2,522 Risen owing to rising healthcare costs + % of Expense 42% 48% 52% 55% 53% 59% 61% aging population Non-Defense Discretionary $174 $247 $282 $419 $522 $577 $639 Education / law enforcement / % of Expense 16% 18% 17% 19% 18% 17% 16% transportation / general government… Defense $291 $292 $270 $405 $612 $626 $623 2008 increase driven by War on Terror % of Expense 27% 21% 16% 19% 21% 18% 15% Net Interest on Public Debt $152 $199 $241 $153 $253 $221 $325 Recent benefit of historic low interest rates % of Expense 14% 14% 15% 7% 8% 6% 8% Surplus / Deficit ($B) ($155) ($255) $69 ($378) ($459) ($680) ($779) -18% average net margin, 1988-2018 Net Margin (%) (17%) (22%) 4% (21%) (18%) (24%) (23%)
  • 266. 265 Internet Trends 2019 …USA Income Statement = Net Loses in 45 of 50 Years USA Annual Profits & Losses -$1,500B -$1,000B -$500B $0 $500B 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011 2018 USA Annual Net Profit / Loss Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget. Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September. $0
  • 267. 266 Internet Trends 2019 USA Entitlements = Medicare + Medicaid Driving Most Spending Growth… Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget. *1988 Income Security programs defined as Food Stamps + SSI + Family Support + Child Nutrition + Earned Income Tax Credit + Other. 2018 Income Security defined as Earned Income Tax Credit + SNAP + SSI + Unemployment + Family Support + Child Nutrition. In 2018, there was an additional ~$302B in mandatory spending, including Veterans’ pensions & ~$81B in 1988. 20% 7% 3% 4% 24% 14% 9% 7% 0% 15% 30% Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security USA Mandatory Entitlements Medicare Medicaid 1988 2018 USA Entitlements by Category 1988 Entitlements* = $367B / 34% of Expenses 2018 Entitlements* = $2.2T / 54% of Expenses 1988 2018 1988 2018
  • 268. 267 Internet Trends 2019 42% 61% 27% 15% 16% 16% 14% 8% 0% 50% 100% 1988 2018 USA Expenses Entitlements / Mandatory Defense Non-Defense Discretionary Net Interest Cost …USA Entitlements = 61% vs. 42% of Government Spending Thirty Years Ago USA Expenses by Category $1.1T $4.1T 10% 5% 0% USA 10Y Treasury Yield 1988 → 2018 Change Debt* +$14T (+668%) Entitlements +$2.1T (+463%) Non-Defense Discretionary +$465B (+268%) Defense +$332B (+114%) Net Interest Cost: +$173B (+114%) 10 Year Treasury Yield Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget, USA Treasury *Debt reflects net debt (i.e. excludes debt issued by The Treasury & owned by other Government accounts) Note: Yellow line represents yield on 10-year USA Treasury bill from 12/31/87 to 12/31/18.
  • 269. 268 Internet Trends 2019 2017… $61K = Median USA Household Income $17K = Average Entitlement Payout per Household from Federal Government… Scale = Equivalent to 28% of Household Income …1987 $26K = Median USA Household Income $4K = Average Entitlement Payout per Household from Federal Government… Scale = Equivalent to 15% of Household Income USA Entitlements Growth Over 30 Years = Looking @ Numbers…Closer to Home Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management & Budget, US Census Bureau
  • 270. 269 Internet Trends 2019 HEALTHCARE (USA) = DIGITAL IMPACT EXPANDING ACROSS ECOSYSTEM CREATED BY NOAH KNAUF @ BOND
  • 271. 270 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Cost = High + Rising for Government / Consumers 0% 10% 20% USA SWITZERLAND FRANCE GERMANY SWEDEN JAPAN CANADA AUSTRIA THE NETHERLANDS BELGIUM GREAT BRITAIN FINLAND AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ITALY SPAIN GREECE CHILE KOREA ISRAEL HUNGARY IRELAND CZECH REPUBLIC POLAND MEXICO TURKEY USA Government / Compulsory Voluntary Health Expenditures – % of GDP, 2017, per OECD Health Spend (% of GDP) 0% 15% 30% 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 Health Expenditures – % of Government Total, USA Federal Government State / Local Government Total USA Government Health Expenditure (% of Total Expenditure) Source: USA Federal + State & Local Healthcare expenditures per the Center for Medicare / Medicaid Studies. Total USA Government expenditures per USA Bureau of Economic Analysis Data. Total Health expenditure per OECD data includes all public / private healthcare spend for the year 2017 (some data subject to future revision per OECD).
  • 272. 271 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Insurance Coverage = Increasingly from Government vs. Employer 0 180MM 360MM 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % of Health-Insured Population, USA Enrollees / Beneficiaries, USA Government Employer Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of Census Bureau's American Community Survey (2008-2017). Note: Government = Those covered by Medicare, Medicaid, or Military / Veteran Coverage. Employer = those covered through a current or former employer or union. Out of Pocket = Those covered by a policy purchased directly from an insurance company, either as policyholder or as dependent. Out of Pocket 63% 30% 7% 54% 39% 7%
  • 273. 272 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Preventable Deaths / Efficiency = USA Worse vs. Peers Source: Commonwealth Fund Analysis (2017). Preventable deaths defined as deaths due to illnesses that are considered non-fatal with timely formal healthcare treatment, such as hepatitis, renal failure, thyroid disorder & other chronic illnesses. Administrative spend defined as non-care giving roles, such as billings & collections. Administrative Healthcare Spend % Total, 2016 0 80 160 Switzerland France Australia Norway Sweden Netherlands Canada Germany UK New Zealand USA Preventable Deaths per 100K People USA 2004 2014 0% 3% 6% 9% USA Germany Switzerland Netherlands Australia Canada Sweden UK Denmark France Japan USA
  • 274. 273 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare = Steadily Digitizing…Driven by Consumers Source: Rock Health Digital Health Consumer Adoption Survey. 2018: n = 4,000, 2015: n = 4,017 Americans ages 18+. 0% 40% 80% Live Video Telemedicine Wearables Mobile Tracking Online Provider Reviews Online Health Information Consumer Adoption of Digital Health Tools, USA 2018 2015 % of Respondents, USA
  • 275. 274 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare (USA) = Strong Digital Usage / Adoption
  • 276. 275 Internet Trends 2019 Data Pools = Unlocking Deeper Research Insights Patient engagement in decision-making has been associated with increased patient satisfaction & improved health outcomes The study analyzed cross-sectional data from 1,945 participants of the [USA] National Health & Aging Trends Study Internet use was found to be associated with active decision-making preference in older adults. Similarly, health-related Internet use was positively associated with decision- making involvement in older adults. Cajita, Whitehouse, et al. Association Between Internet Use & Decision-Making Preference in Older Adults (2/17) 0 7MM 14MM 2012 2014 2016 2018 Annual Consumer Genomics Tests Conducted on Illumina Equipment, Global Source: Illumina @ JPMorgan Healthcare conference (1/18). National Center for Biotechnology Information (USA, 2/17) Internet Research = Increasing Access to Data / Decision-Making Tools Genomic Testing = Growing Base of Personal Genetic Data Genomic Tests
  • 277. 276 Internet Trends 2019 Electronic Health Records (EHR) = Organizing Patient Data EHR Adoption, USA 0% 50% 100% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 % Using E.H.R. System Source: Office for National Coordination of Health Information Technology. Stanford / Harris poll of 521 Primary Care physicians in USA (Family Practice, General Practice, or Internal Medicine) recruited through the American Medical Association. All have been using EHR for at least 1 month Note: Adoption of EHR refers to any EHR system being used by Office-based physicians or hospitals, does not imply all records are kept electronically. …EHR Usage = Still Early Innings EHR Adoption = Nearing 100%… Physician’s Offices Hospitals Top Physician ‘Wants’ for Future EHR Development, per Stanford / Harris Poll, 9/18 67% 43% 32% 0% 40% 80% Interoperability Predictive Analytics Financial / Cost Data Integration
  • 278. 277 Internet Trends 2019 Health Networks = Aligning Provider Teams Across Organizations 0 0.7MM 1.4MM 0 30MM 60MM Collective Acute Visits, USA (Blue Bar) Source: Collective Medical Technologies Inc. (6/19). *2019E represents annualized data as of 6/19. Note: Acute Visits = Patient-Provider interactions (ED visit, IP stay). Insights = Unique provider-provider actions taken to optimize patient care Collective Medical = Real-Time Collaborative Health Network Aligned Care Teams = Improving Outcomes @ Lower Cost We strive to empower a distributed care team to act with aligned purpose, aware of what each individual member is doing – even if representing differing organizations – all united by their shared stewardship for the patient. You can either throw a tremendous number of expensive, scarce bodies at the problem – which isn’t scalable – or you can use technology. I’m not talking about mere notifications that an encounter has occurred, which we also do, but a deeper level of collaboration. Chris Klomp – CEO, Collective Medical, 6/19 Network Growth + Patient Impact Collective Insights, USA (Red Line) Insights Acute Visits
  • 279. 278 Internet Trends 2019 Online Discovery = Improving Accessibility + Availability of Care Source: Zocdoc (6/17, 6/19) Zocdoc = Digital Healthcare Marketplace 0 4MM 8MM 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Zocdoc Monthly Patients, USA Optimizing Perishable Inventory = Accelerating Access to Care Zocdoc Monthly Patients, USA Healthcare providers partner with Zocdoc to fill their 20-30% unused, perishable inventory. This dramatically accelerates access to care for patients. While patients who call wait an average of 24 days to get in to see a doctor, when booking online via Zocdoc, the typical appointment happens within 24-72 hours. Because of this win/win, in our first market NYC, one in five new patient-doctor relationships is established via Zocdoc. Our other markets are following the same trajectory. Oliver Kharraz M.D. – CEO / Founder, Zocdoc, 6/19
  • 280. 279 Internet Trends 2019 On-Demand Urgent Care = Reducing Time to Receive Treatment 0 80MM 160MM 2017 2018 2019 Solv Cumulative Medical Billings Saved, USA Source: Solv (6/19, 6/17-5/19). Note: Medical Bills Saved = Online appointments scheduled through Solv multiplied by 14% (Proportion of patient reported would have gone to the ER multiplied by $800 net savings…ER $1,000 vs urgent care $200). Savings could either be out of pocket for consumers or split between the consumer and insurance company. Solv = Convenient Care Marketplace On-Demand Access = Combining Convenience + Speed No longer are patients okay with waiting as many as 24 days to see a doctor. Solv is putting patients in front of a provider who can treat their symptoms in as little as 15 minutes. The benefit this provides consumers is real. We’ve already given ~20 years back to consumers who typically spend 2 hours between booking an appointment & getting their issue resolved. Heather Fernandez – CEO / Co-Founder, Solv, 6/19 Cumulative Medical Billings Saved, USA
  • 281. 280 Internet Trends 2019 Telehealth / Telemedicine = Strengthening Patient <> Practitioner Relationships 0% 40% 80% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % of Hospitals with Telehealth Systems, USA Source: American Hospital Association Fact Sheet: Telehealth (2/19), Teladoc SEC Filings. Telehealth Systems = Increasing Hospital Implementation Teladoc = Remote Medical Care 0 1.5MM 3.0MM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Telehealth Visits, Global Telehealth System Adoption, USA Teladoc Visits, Global
  • 282. 281 Internet Trends 2019 Prescription Delivery = Improving Convenience + Affordability 0 150K 300K 2016 2017 2018 2019 Nurx Medical Interactions, USA Nurx = On-Demand Drug Delivery Prescription Drug Expenditures = Rapidly Rising $0 $200B $400B 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Prescription Drug Expenditures, USA 2018 Prescription Drug Expenditures, USA Nurx Monthly Medical Interactions, USA Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) National Health Expenditures (5/19), Nurx (5/19). Note: Medical Interactions = medical questions & ongoing fulfillment
  • 283. 282 Internet Trends 2019 Communication / Professional Community = Extending Knowledge Base to Practitioners 0 0.6MM 1.2MM 2011 2013 2015 2017 Doximity Registered Members, Global Source: Doximity (5/19), Thrive Global (12/17). Members include physicians, physician assistants, nurse practitioners & medical students. Doximity = Physician Social Network Communication = Increasing Ability to Address Unique Cases [A patient] was bitten by a Macaque monkey & as a result, came down with a rare form of encephalitis. A potentially fatal brain inflammation. His physician used Doximity to find one of the rare specialist who could treat this condition. There are only about 20 doctors in the entire U.S. that are expert in this area. The patient was referred & treated successfully. Most people don’t realize that referring patients to the appropriate specialist isn’t always easy for physicians & our network makes that process seamless, even in the toughest cases. Jeff Tangney – CEO / Co-Founder, Doximity, 12/17 Doximity Registered Members
  • 284. 283 Internet Trends 2019 Health Insurance Management = Simplifying + Centralizing User Experience Oscar Memberships, USA Source: Oscar Health, Mario Schlosser Interview with Wired (8/18). Note: Oscar data as of the first month of each year based on enrollments timing. Oscar = Digital Health Management 0 150K 300K 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Oscar Memberships, USA Modernized Management = Re-Imagining Legacy Systems We have our own claims system we’ve been building, we have our own clinical management system, we built our networks ourselves – pretty much everything that we do internally to manage people’s healthcare was reinvented & rebuilt from a technology perspective & so that’s what we can now go faster toward. We can hire more engineers, we can hire more data scientists, more product designers, more smart clinicians who can think about health care a different way. Mario Schlosser – CEO / Co-Founder, Oscar Health, 8/18
  • 285. 284 Internet Trends 2019 Health Incentive Tools = Driving Positive Choices via Savings + Personalized Rewards Source: Rally Health / UnitedHealth Group (6/19) Rewards = Building + Reinforcing Positive Habits $0 $0.8B $1.6B 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Rally Health Cumulative Incentives Rally Health = Incentivizing Healthy Living Rally Health Cumulative Incentives, USA
  • 286. 285 Internet Trends 2019 Medicare Plan Management = Personalizing Coverage + Costs Medicare Advantage Enrollment, USA Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS Medicare Advantage enrollment files (2008-2018) & MPR numbers (1999-2007) from March of the respective year, with the exception of 2006, which is from April (11/18). Clover Health (3/19). Note: Enrollment includes cost plans & Medicare Advantage Plans. Approximately 61MM people are enrolled in Medicare in 2018. Medicare Advantage Enrollments = On the Rise 0 11MM 22MM 1999 2004 2009 2014 2018 Medicare Advantage Enrollment, USA Medicare Advantage Members, USA Clover Health = Matching Plans with Members’ Needs 0 20K 40K 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Clover Health Members, USA
  • 287. 286 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Innovation = Internet Leaders Building Capabilities
  • 288. 287 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Innovation = Internet Leaders Poised to Capture Data Source: Rock Health Digital Health Consumer Adoption Survey. 2018: n = 4,000. *Note this question was only asked to the 11% of total respondents that answered ‘yes’ to the question asking whether they’d be willing to share their health data with a tech company. 34% 40% 46% 49% 51% 53% 60% 0% 45% 90% IBM Facebook Samsung Apple Microsoft Amazon Google Internet Leaders = Increasingly Trusted with Healthcare Data With which tech company would you share your health data?* % of Respondents, USA, 2018
  • 289. 288 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Innovation = Apple… Hardware + App Store Leveraging Research For Consumers Apple = Democratization of Healthcare If you zoom out into the future & you look back, & you ask the question, ‘What was Apple’s greatest contribution to mankind,’ it will be about health. Because our business has always been about enriching people’s lives. We’ve gotten into healthcare more & more through the Watch, other features created with ResearchKit & CareKit & including medical records on the iPhone. This a huge deal. [Healthcare] is very important for people. We are democratizing it. We are taking what has been with the institution & empowering the individual to manage their health. We’re just at the front end of this. Tim Cook – CEO, Apple, 1/19 Source: Apple. Tim Cook Interview with CNBC (1/19). Morgan Stanley estimates that 70MM Apple Watch units have been sold from 4/15-3/19. Apple ResearchKit = Medical Research Technology for Consumers
  • 290. 289 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Innovation = Google / Alphabet… Artificial Intelligence Unlocking Insights for Practitioners Google = AI Enabled Healthcare If AI can shape healthcare, it has to work through the regulations of healthcare. In fact I see that as one of the biggest areas where the benefits will play out for the next 10-20 years. We had recently done work on diabetic retinopathy, it's a cause for blindness, but using AI machine learning we can detect it much better than humans can. Sundar Pichai – CEO, Google, 10/17 Source: DeepMind (11/18), Google. Sundar Pichai Interview with NDTV (10/17). DeepMind Streams = AI Assistant for Doctors + Nurses
  • 291. 290 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Innovation = Microsoft Healthcare… Enabling Healthcare’s Move to the Cloud with AI Solutions Microsoft = Intelligent Healthcare The healthcare industry has made great strides over the last decade in helping digitize healthcare & so the next ten will be about turning those assets into better health insights, experiences & outcomes. This is where we can make a big contribution. Cloud, AI & research capabilities will play a fundamental role towards the future. At Microsoft, we’re continuing to learn & grow every day from the extensive set of partnerships that we have had in healthcare: over 168,000 healthcare organizations in 140 countries. Health & wellbeing are central to our daily lives. New inventions developed with our partners using Microsoft AI & machine learning can create a better future & make healthcare delivery more personal, affordable & accessible. Peter Lee – CVP, Microsoft Healthcare, 4/19 Source: Microsoft Industry Blog (4/19) Microsoft Health Bot = Troubleshooting Health Issues
  • 292. 291 Internet Trends 2019 38% 24% 37% 0% 30% 60% Do not take perscription medicine >4 prescription drugs 1-3 prescription drugs Healthcare Innovation = Amazon / PillPack… Consumer-Centric Approach to Medication Management PillPack = Consumable Healthcare PillPack is meaningfully improving its customers’ lives & we want to help them continue making it easy for people to save time, simplify their lives, & feel healthier. We’re excited to see what we can do together on behalf of customers over time. Jeff Wilke – CEO, Amazon Worldwide Consumer, 7/18 Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (2/19). Survey of 1,400 USA adults over the age of 18, including 606 over the age of 65, conducted from 2/14-2/19/19. Respondents were asked the question: ‘Do you currently take any prescription medicine or not? IF YES: How many different prescription drugs do you take?’. PillPack press release (7/18). Prescription Medicine Usage = Increasingly Common % of Respondents, USA Do not take prescription medicine 62% Take Prescription Drugs Prescription Medicine Usage, 2019, USA
  • 293. 292 Internet Trends 2019 Healthcare Cost = High + Rising for Government / Consumers 0% 10% 20% USA SWITZERLAND FRANCE GERMANY SWEDEN JAPAN CANADA AUSTRIA THE NETHERLANDS BELGIUM GREAT BRITAIN FINLAND AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ITALY SPAIN GREECE CHILE KOREA ISRAEL HUNGARY IRELAND CZECH REPUBLIC POLAND MEXICO TURKEY USA Government / Compulsory Voluntary Health Expenditures, % of GDP, 2017, per OECD Health Spend (% of GDP) 0% 15% 30% 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 Health Expenditures % of Government Total, USA Federal Government State / Local Government Total USA Government Health Expenditure (% of Total Expenditure) Source: USA Federal + State & Local Healthcare expenditures per the Center for Medicare / Medicaid Studies. Total USA Government expenditures per USA Bureau of Economic Analysis Data. Total Health expenditure per OECD data includes all public / private healthcare spend for the year 2017 (some data subject to future revision per OECD).
  • 294. 293 Internet Trends 2019 CHINA INTERNET = INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS + BUSINESSES CONTINUE TO IMPRESS Disclaimer – The information provided in the following 39 slides is for informational & illustrative purposes only. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given & no responsibility or liability is accepted by any person with respect to the accuracy, reliability, correctness or completeness of this Information or its contents or any oral or written communication in connection with it. Hillhouse Capital may hold equity stakes in companies mentioned in this section. A business relationship, arrangement, or contract by or among any of the businesses described herein may not exist at all & should not be implied or assumed from the information provided. The information provided herein by Hillhouse Capital does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy, & may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of, any security or interest offered, sponsored, or managed by Hillhouse Capital or its affiliates. PREPARED BY HILLHOUSE CAPITAL
  • 296. 295 Internet Trends 2019 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research China PMI Business Index + Enterprise Confidence Index (%) PMI: Production & Business Expectation % PBOC Industrial Survey % China Near-Term Business Confidence = Fluctuating… 40 60 80 47 55 63 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PMI: Production and Business Expectation (LS) PBOC Industrial Survey: Enterprise Confidence (RS)
  • 297. 296 Internet Trends 2019 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. *A z-score measures how many standard deviations above or below the historical average a data point is. China Consumer Confidence Proxy Based on Average Z-Score* of Household Loans, Consumer Confidence Index, Passenger Car Sales, Air Passenger Traffic & Catering Consumption Consumer Confidence Proxy, China …China Near-Term Consumer Confidence = Fluctuating -3 0 3 12/11 6/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/14 12/14 6/15 12/15 6/16 12/16 6/17 12/17 6/18 12/18
  • 298. 297 Internet Trends 2019 China Service Sector = Continues to Drive Economic Growth China Service Sector Output as % of Nominal GDP Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Morgan Stanley Research Note: Service sector defined as all industries outside of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industries (except support services to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industries), mining (except auxiliary activities of mining), manufacturing (except repairs for metal products, machinery & equipment), production & supply of electricity, steam, gas, water, & construction. 0% 30% 60% 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 % of GDP, China
  • 299. 298 Internet Trends 2019 Source: CEIC, UN, Morgan Stanley Research 0% 50% 100% 1950 1967 1984 2001 2018 % of Total Population USA Japan Korea India China China Urbanization = Rising Rapidly…Room to Grow Urban Population – % Total Population
  • 300. 299 Internet Trends 2019 China Urban Disposable Income Per Capita = Solid +8% Y/Y Source: CEIC, assumes constant exchange rate of 1USD = 6.9RMB. 0% 13% 26% $0 $3,000 $6,000 Urban Disposable Income per Capita Y/Y Growth Urban Disposable Income per Capita ($, Blue Bar) Y/Y Growth (Red Line) China Urban Disposable Income per Capita + Y/Y Growth
  • 301. 300 Internet Trends 2019 Source: SAFE, Morgan Stanley Research China Current Account Balance % of GDP, China China Trade Balance = Current Account Surplus Narrowing… Rising Outbound Tourism Offsetting Decreasing Net Exports -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Income & Transfer Service Balance Goods Balance Current Account Balance
  • 302. 301 Internet Trends 2019 Source: Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research China Share of World Exports = Declining Since 2016 Due to Rising Wages + Aging Labor Force Share of World Exports %, China China Share of World Exports (%) 0% 8% 16% 2000 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 12M Trailing Sum 3M Trailing Sum
  • 303. 302 Internet Trends 2019 China Internet User / Usage Trends = Robust Usage Growth Primarily Driven by Short-Form Video
  • 304. 303 Internet Trends 2019 China Mobile Internet Users vs. Y/Y Growth Source: China Internet Network Information Center Note: Mobile Internet User Data is as of Year-End. 0% 40% 80% 0 500MM 1000MM 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Growth, Y/Y Mobile Internet Users, China China Mobile Internet Users Y/Y Growth China Mobile Internet Users = 817MM…+9% vs. +8% Y/Y
  • 305. 304 Internet Trends 2019 China Mobile Internet Usage (Data) = Continues to Accelerate +189% vs. +162% Y/Y China Cellular Internet Data Usage & Growth Y/Y 0% 120% 240% 0 40EB 80EB 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Growth, Y/Y Mobile Data Usage, China (EB = Exabyte) China Mobile Data Consumption Y/Y Growth Source: China Ministry of Industry & Information Technology. Note: Cellular Internet Refers to 3G/4G Network data.
  • 306. 305 Internet Trends 2019 China Short-Form Video = Leading User + Usage Growth Across All App Categories 0 300MM 600MM 2017-04 2018-04 2019-04 China Short-Form Video – Daily Time Spent Daily Mobile Hours Spent Source: QuestMobile (4/19). Note: Short-Form Form Videos are typically <5 Minute in Length & include companies such as Kuaishou, Douyin, Baidu Haokan,etc Daily Active Users Leading Short-Form Video Platforms – DAUs 0 125MM 250MM 2017-04 2018-04 2019-04 Douyin Kuaishou Haokan 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/17 4/18 4/19
  • 307. 306 Internet Trends 2019 China Short-Form Video = Driving Incremental Mobile Time Spent Growth Source: QuestMobile (4/19) 0 75 150 Hours per User per Month Average Smartphone Time Spent per MAU per Month Mobile Short Form Video Other Finance Reading Music Shopping News Games Online Video Browser, Input Method, App Store Communication & Social Networking
  • 308. 307 Internet Trends 2019 China Innovation = Games Driving Transformation of… Payments / E-Commerce / Retail / Education
  • 309. 308 Internet Trends 2019 QR Code Public Transit 48MM+ MAUs Tiao yi tiao (Jump Jump) First Mini-Program Game 100MM+ DAUs in two weeks Source: WeChat Open Class PRO 2019(01/19), Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Summit(05/19), MAU per QuestMobile Mini-Programs 4/19. Uniqlo Brand ~3x Conversion vs. Industry Pinduoduo eCommerce 89MM+ MAUs Tongcheng-Elong Travel Booking 169MM+ MAUs WeSing Entertainment 73MM+ MAUs Xiaoniangao Photos 214MM+ MAUs WeChat Jump Jump = Simple Game Helped Create Ecosystem of Mini-Programs
  • 310. 309 Internet Trends 2019 Alipay Ant Forest = Gamified Philanthropy Can Drive Consumer Engagement Ant Forest Accumulate green energy points by completing tasks that reduce carbon emission or paper waste (walking / biking / public transit / online & offline payment / recycling / used goods…) 100MM Real Trees Planted* Source: *Ant Financial as of 4/19, **QuestMobile as of 4/19. ~4x Average Alipay Sessions per User per Day** Protect your virtual tree green energy points or ‘collect’ friends’ points by waking up early & checking in often Ant Financial & other charity partners turn virtual tree green energy points into real trees to combat deforestation 500MM Cumulative Users of Ant Forest* within Alipay
  • 311. 310 Internet Trends 2019 Pinduoduo = Group Buying… Social Shopping + Gamified Discounts Drive Growth Get Cheaper Price by Sharing with Friends Friends Can Play Game & Help Reduce Prices Trailing 12-Month GMV 0 $50B $100B Q1:17 Q3:17 Q1:18 Q3:18 Q1:19 GMV ($B) Note: Assume FX 1USD=6.9RMB. Pinduoduo
  • 312. 311 Internet Trends 2019 Belle / TopSports = Digitization + Gamification Can Drive Same-Store-Sales Lift Store Managers Real-time Sales by Category & SKU Employee KPIs & Peer Rankings Store Associates Gamified Rewards to Complete KPIs Competitive Sales Games vs. Peer Stores Source: Belle. Belle / TopSports
  • 313. 312 Internet Trends 2019 Online Education = Structured Fun Games Drive Learning Coding Cat Games of Codes TAL (XRS) Online Turning Math Learning Into Games Cartoon + Students PK Enhanced Learning Experience
  • 314. 313 Internet Trends 2019 China Innovation = Internet-Based Products + Business Models
  • 315. 314 Internet Trends 2019 China Chat = Enabler of Transactions & Services
  • 316. 315 Internet Trends 2019 WeChat Innovation = Evolution from Chat to Mini-Programs / Payments 1 2 3 4 WeChat Public Account Following WeChat Mini-Programs Placing Order WeChat Mini-Programs Browsing Items WeChat Integrated Payment Finishing Payment
  • 317. 316 Internet Trends 2019 Global Rollouts = Kakao / Line / Facebook Incorporate Transaction Features Kakao Chat / Music / Payment / Games / Transportation… Instagram / WhatsApp Chat / Shopping / Money Transfer… Line Chat / Payment / Food / Coupons…
  • 318. 317 Internet Trends 2019 China Local Services = Becoming ‘Super Apps’
  • 319. 318 Internet Trends 2019 Meituan = From Group Buying to Super App… 30+ Services…412MM Annual Transacting Users, +26% Y/Y… Source: Company Material. Meituan Mobile App Functions vs. Relevant US Peers
  • 320. 319 Internet Trends 2019 …Meituan Super App… Growing Consumer Engagement + Transaction Frequency Source: Meituan IPO prospectus Meituan # of Transactions per User per Year by Cohort
  • 321. 320 Internet Trends 2019 Alipay = From Payments to Super App… 200K+ Mini-Programs…1B+ Users…70% Use 3+ Financial Services* 0 150MM 300MM 2017-04 2018-04 2019-04 Alipay DAUs, China Source: China DAU per QuestMobile (4/19),* Categories of financial services provided by Ant Financial include payment, wealth management, financing, insurance & credit system. Daily Active Users, China 4/17 4/18 4/19
  • 322. 321 Internet Trends 2019 Global Rollouts = Grab / Rappi / Uber Incorporate ‘Super App’ Features Grab Transport / Food / Payment / Logistics… Uber Transport + Food + e-Bikes + Freight… Rappi Food / Grocery / More…
  • 323. 322 Internet Trends 2019 China Retail = Online / Offline / Omni-Channel
  • 324. 323 Internet Trends 2019 Live-Streaming + E-Commerce = Can Increase… Transparency + Interactivity + Influencer Engagement Taobao Live $14B+ Live-Streaming GMV in 2018 Kuaishou Live-Streaming Shopping MOGU Live-Streaming = 24% of GMV 4x Repeat Purchase Rate Source: Alibaba, MOGU. Note: MOGU GMV for the year ended March 31, 2019
  • 325. 324 Internet Trends 2019 Various Online Grocery Retail Formats = Competing For Consumer Wallet Share • Order in app or groupbuy in WeChat mini-programs • Next day delivery to neighborhood sorting station + self pick up • Franchised community partner owner • Order in app • 30min delivery to home • Owned & operated inventory + fulfillment Miss Fresh / Dingdong Maicai / Pupu Shengxian… Xingsheng Youxuan / Songshu Pinpin / Dailuobo… • Order in app • 30min delivery to home • Fulfilled by partner stores, delivered by Meituan / Ele.me / Taoxianda /JD Meituan / Ele.me / Taoxianda / JD Daojia… • Owned & operated stores • Pick-up or delivery • Freshippo – 135+ stores Freshippo (Hema) / 7Fresh …
  • 326. 325 Internet Trends 2019 Alibaba ‘New Retail’ Strategy = Digitizing Various Offline Retail Verticals Intime Fashion & Department Stores Freshippo / Hema 135+ Grocery Stores Source: Company Materials Eleme & Koubei On-demand Delivery for 2,100+ Starbucks Stores Suning JV Consumer Electronics Sun Art 470 Supermarkets Digitized Easy Home Home Improvement Tmall Store Rural Omni-Channel Stores LingShouTong 1MM+ Mom-&-Pop Stores Digitized
  • 327. 326 Internet Trends 2019 WeChat Groups & Mini-Programs = Improving Customer Relationship Management (CRM) for Retail Scan QR Code in Store to Join WeChat Group Receive Latest Product Info via Sales Associates Receive Latest Brand Info via Public Accounts Purchase + Checkout via WeChat Mini Programs Source: Belle. Belle / TopSports WeChat Groups & Mini-Programs
  • 328. 327 Internet Trends 2019 Yonghui Superstores = Creating Digital Grocery Experience @ Offline Stores Home Delivery = ~15% of Sales in Pilot Stores 50% of Home Delivery Ordered via WeChat Mini-Program Red Packets Shared in Group Chats to Drive Engagement Source: Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Summit (05/19) Yonghui Superstores
  • 329. 328 Internet Trends 2019 China Education = Spreading from Offline to Online
  • 330. 329 Internet Trends 2019 China K-12 Education = Online Augmenting Offline Learning Experience Xueersi Online (TAL) K-12 Live-streaming Group Courses Zuoyebang K-12 Homework Help (take photos to get answer help) + Live-streaming Group Courses Xueersi Shuangshi (TAL) Online Lecturer + Offline Tutor / Teaching Assistant
  • 331. 330 Internet Trends 2019 China Kids (Ages 3-10) Education = Increasing Online Platform Usage Outside of School Hours VIPKid English 1-on-1 & Small Group Live-Streaming Online Courses Code Mao Coding Live-streaming Courses Hetao Coding Coding Recorded Courses
  • 332. 331 Internet Trends 2019 China Government Services = Online Access Rising
  • 333. 332 Internet Trends 2019 WeChat / AliPay = Digitizing Government Services… 500MM+ Consumers YueShengShi WeChat Mini Program 10MM+ Verified Users in Guangdong Province 500+ Government Services AliPay Public Services ~500MM Cumulative Consumers Served Across 300+ Cities Service Covered Cities Wait Time Before Wait Time After Utility Bill Pay 300+ ~1 Hour ~1 Minute Social Security Application 240+ ~1 Hour ~1 Minute Traffic Violation 200+ ~30 Min ~1 Minute Hospital Appointment 250+ -- 50% Reduction Source: Tencent as of 4/19. Ant Financial.
  • 334. 333 Internet Trends 2019 Bond is a global technology investment firm that supports visionary founders throughout their life cycle of innovation & growth. Bond’s founding partners have backed industry pioneers such as DocuSign, Peloton, Spotify, Square & Uber. This presentation, including the information contained herein, has been compiled for informational purposes only & does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security. Any such offer or solicitation shall only be made pursuant to the final offering documents related to such security. The presentation relies on data + insights from a wide range of sources, including public + private companies, market research firms + government agencies. We cite specific sources where data are public; the presentation is also informed by non-public information + insights. We disclaim any + all warranties, express or implied, with respect to the presentation. No presentation content should be construed as professional advice of any kind (including legal or investment advice). We publish the Internet Trends® report on an annual basis, but on occasion will highlight new insights. We may post updates, revisions, or clarifications on Bond’s website (www.bondcap.com). Bond owns significant equity positions in certain of the companies referenced in this presentation. Disclaimer