Climate Change Impacts on Crop
Yields
Group 1
1. Ratu Kinley
2. Ugyen Tenzin
3. Ugyen Wangchuk
4. Nidup Dorji
5. Samten Dema
6. Kezang Wangmo
7. Rinzin Dema
8. Sonam Wangdi
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
PRESENTATION OUTLINE MATERIALS & METHODS
RESULTS & DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
Meeting Future Food Demand Amidst
Climate Change.
1. INTRODUCTION
•Climate change is a
major Increased Projected increase in
global food demand by
challenge/production Food 30–62% by 2050,
Demand compared with 2010
constraint for global food levels.
security. Higher Meeting demand
requires increased
•Key cereal crops studied: Crop crop
Yields Yields. Limited crop
wheat, rice, maize, Climate Change
are.
Climate change
intensifies drought
millet, sorghum. Impact Stress, Elevated CO2
•Focus: Effects of etc…
Regional Yield Some regions may see
temperature, CO₂, and Variations yield increases.
water availability on
Complex
yields. Interaction
Interactions are
specific
s to crop and region.
Importance of adaptation (region- & crop-specific) strategies
2. Objectives
Understand how climate ● Temperature
01 change drivers affect
yields.
●
●
Elevated CO2
Drought stress
● Tropical climate
02 Summarize impacts across
regions.
● Scenarios in different countries
● Region specific
03 Explore possible
adaptation strategies.
● Crop specific
4
3. Materials & Methods
• Review Article : Literature Review & Meta-analysis; synthesis of
field experiments and modeling studies.
• Experimental Platforms: Free-Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE), open-
top chambers, rainout shelters, temperature-controlled tunnels.
• Process-based Crop Models: simulate yield under climate
scenarios (SSPs).
• Comparative Approach: analysis across crops, regions (Tropics
vs Temperate), and adaptation practices.
5
Factors Influencing Crop
Yields Warmer
Temperatures
Weeds
Increased heat affects plant
Unwanted plants growth and development
competing with crops
Pests and Elevated CO2
Crop Higher carbon dioxide levels
Diseases Yields Impacting photosynthesis
Organisms causing
damage to crops
Ground-Level Water
Ozone Availability
Ozone pollution affecting Changes in water supply
plant health leading to
drought or excess
4.Results & Discussion
Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields
Elevated CO2*: boosts C3 crops
Elevated CO₂ (wheat, rice), limited benefit for
C4 crops.
Temperature: higher heat
shortens growth period,
reduces biomass, and
extreme heat around *Water: drought delays
flowering cuts grain germination and reduces
numbers. photosynthesis; excess
water damages roots and
lowers yield.
Water availability
Temperature (drought &
extremes flooding) 7
Crop Responses to Individual Drivers
4.1 Yield Responses to CO2
Impact of Elevated CO2 on Crop Yields
⮚ Elevated CO₂: Has a compensatory effect
on C3 crops (wheat and rice) by
enhancing photosynthesis and inhibiting
photorespiration, but this effect can be
offset by heat and drought
⮚ Elevated CO₂: +17% yield in C3 crops
(wheat, rice).
⮚ C4 crops (maize, sorghum, millet): minor
CO₂ benefit, elevated CO₂ primarily
benefits them under drought stress
4.2 Drought driven Yield changes
1. Drought stress reduces leaf area production
and photosynthesis, accelerating development
and intensifying leaf senescence, leading to
yield penalties.
2. Wheat is more resilient to drought stress than
Maize and Rice, but less resilient than
Sorghum and Millet
3. Maize & Millet (C4) is more sensitive to
drought stress
4. All crops lose yields under drought (Bars
shows negative)
5. The small Graph tells us how crop yields
changes when water availability is reduced
10
4.3 Yield Response to Water stress
1. Waterlogging can also reduce yield by
hampering root growth and nutrient uptake,
leading to stomatal closure and reduced
light interception
2.All four crops shows yield loss from
waterlogging
3.Waterlogging → significant reductions
in (−42% in sorghum, −35% in maize).
4.Maize and wheat (with larger datasets)
show consistent ~30–35% yield loss.
5.Millet and sorghum appear more
sensitive (–45 to –50%), but with
fewer studies and greater variability
6.Maize and Millet are moderately
affected with yield losses greater than
Wheat but lesser than Sorghum.
4.4 Cardinal temperature range for crucial phenological
stage
- Crops have Minimum, Optimum
and Maximum temperature.
- Millet and Sorghum have the
highest maximum Temperature.
- Wheat has the lowest maximum
temperature.
- Crops like Wheat and Rice prefer
cooler optimum Temperature
while other prefers warmer
optimum temperature.
- For Wheat and Rice, the Anthesis
stage has significantly lower
maximum temperature than grain
filling stage, meaning they are
much more susceptible to high
temperature stress during
flowering.
4.5 Yield Vs Seasonal mean temperature
- This graph shows how
average seasonal
temperature affects yield.
- For Maize, As
Temperature rise, the
yield decrease sharply
whereas for Wheat the
yield decrease, but less
steeply.
Note: Higher Temperature
reduces yield for both crops.
How crops responds to CO2, Water and Temperature
Main take away
- Cheap methods:
Flexible, Simple
but less realistics
- Expensive
methods: Very
accurate and
realistic but costly
and complex
- The line from
Rainout shelter to
FACE indicates
that it can be
combined with
FACE to study
combined effects
Process based modeling for climate change impact assessment
● Scientist feed data
on Soil, Climate,
Crop Genetics and
Farming practices
into computer
model.
● These model then
predicts future
crop yield around
the world under
different climate
change scenario.
● The result shows
where food
production might
increase, decrease
or stay stable.
● Tropical crops are more
vulnerable to rising temperature
than temperate crops
● Maize, Millet and Sorghum
shows strong yield losses as
temperature rise.
● Hotter Climate reduces yields,
Tropical crops are at higher risk
from climate change
Global Production Decline: Unveiling the Hidden Factors
How future climate change will affect the yields
The Diagram compares the projected change in Wheat
yields for various countries under Sustainable and
Fossil-fueled future.
India is shown to be highly vulnerable, High-emission
SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a much larger yield loss than
low-emission SSP1-2.6 scenario, suggesting that India's
wheat production is sensitive to high-warming future.
How future climate change will affect the yields
Maize yields are projected to decrease
under future climate scenario, (High-
emission SSP5-8.5, significant yield loss
compared to Low-emission SSP1-2.6
scenario)
How future climate change will affect the yields
Countries like China, India and Bangladesh face
projected decrease in yield across both scenarios,
highlighting their high vulnerability to climate
change.
How future climate change will affect the yields
While Millet ia a climet-resilient crops, its ability
to thrive is highly dependent on global climate
path. A low-emission (SSP1-2.6) could enable
significant gains, whereas a high-emission (SSP5-
8.5) would reduce grains and cause significant
losses.
How future climate change will affect the yields
Both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario project a negative yield change for
sorghum in both India and West Africa, with the most significant potential losses
occurring in West Africa.
Adaptation Practices
-Management like Sowing
date with new cultivar, and
irrigation (medium and
weak) the yields are roughly
flat
-With strong adaption
(Dynamic Irrigation with
nutrient management),
Yields improve a lot in
higher latitude
-Benefit most in cooler
climates
Adaptation Practices
-With minimal adaptation Maize yields
drops significantly, especially tropics
- With adaptation, losses is reduced
but gains are limited compared to
Wheat
- Maize are highly vulnerable to heat
stress especially in warm, tropical
regions where even strong adaptation
practices like dynamic irrigation with
nutrient management only manages
to limit yield losses. In contrast, these
same advanced practices are more
effective in cooler climates.
Adaptation Practices
-With minimal adaptation yield fall
across most region, particularly in
tropics.
-Adaptation improves yields,
especially in tropics, but not as
strongly as Wheat. While the strong
adaptation line for rice shows
positive gains, they are more modest
and less across latitude compared to
wheat.
-Rice remains vulnerable, but its
yield can be stabilized with
adaptation
Results: Combined Effects
⮚ Elevated CO₂ offsets
drought partly, not heat
extremes.
⮚ Tropics most vulnerable (C4
crops, near heat
thresholds).
⮚ Temperate regions may
benefit from CO₂
fertilization.
⮚ IRRIGATION & NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT:
MOST EFFECTIVE (+40% WHEAT YIELD
Adaptation RECOVERY).
⮚ OTHER OPTIONS: EARLY SOWING, STRESS-
Potential TOLERANT CULTIVARS, DIVERSIFICATION.
⮚ CHALLENGES: WATER SCARCITY, COSTS,
REGIONAL FEASIBILITY.
Conclusion
⮚ Projected global yield loss: 7–23% by
2050 without adaptation.
⮚ Wheat: most adaptable (benefits from
CO₂ + adaptation).
⮚ Maize, millet, sorghum: highly
vulnerable in tropics.
⮚ No universal solution – region- & crop-
specific strategies needed.
⮚ Need integrated research &
socioeconomic considerations.
Future Research
Pathways
CO2
Compensatory
Investigating CO2's role
Potential in
yield enhancement.
Integrated
Impact Data Availability
Combining models
Assessments and
for Enhancing data quality
Quality
and
comprehensive
impact availability in key
assessments. regions.
Multifacto Biotic
r Stress
Conducting experiments
Experime Creating models to
Modeling
to predict
nts
understand complex biotic stress impacts on
yield crops.
interactions.
Climate change in agriculture
(conclusion)
Pro Con
s s
Crop- Complex
specific
1 1 challenge
strategies
Tailored strategies s
Climate change
enhance resilience poses
and significant hurdles to
productivity in global crop
diverse production.
agricultural regions.
Improved Variable
models
Advanced models
2 2 impacts
Impacts vary
improve prediction widely,
accuracy for complicating
better uniform
adaptation mitigation efforts.
planning.
Knowledge No
advanceme
3 3 universal
nt
Filling knowledge solution
Lack of a single
gaps solution
aids in developing necessitates localized,
effective climate crop-specific
change approaches.
mitigation strategies.
Thank You
