APEX INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & ENGINEERING
Artificial Intelligence (22CSH-387)
Faculty: Ankur Sharma(E13693)
Lecture – 3.3.4,3.3.5
Predictive Analytics DISCOVER . LEARN . EMPOWER
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Artificial Intelligence : Course Objectives
COURSE OBJECTIVES
(AI) is a research field that studies how to realize the intelligent human
behaviors on a computer. The ultimate goal of AI is to make a computer that
can learn, plan, and solve problems autonomously. Although AI has been studied
for more than half a century, we still cannot make a computer that is as
intelligent as a human in all aspects, The main research topics in AI include:
problem solving, reasoning, planning, natural language understanding, computer
vision, automatic programming, machine learning, and so on. Of course, these
topics are closely related with each other. In this course, we will study the
most fundamental knowledge for understanding AI. We will introduce some basic
search algorithms for problem solving; knowledge representation and reasoning;
pattern recognition; fuzzy logic; and neural networks
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COURSE OUTCOMES
On completion of this course, the students shall be able to:
CO1 Understand the basics of the theory and practice of Artificial Intelligence as a discipline and
about intelligent agents capable of problem formulation
CO2 Evaluation of different uninformed search algorithms on well formulate problems along with
stating valid conclusions that the evaluation supports.
CO3 Design and Analysis of informed search algorithms on well formulated problems.
CO4 Formulate and solve given problem using Propositional and First order logic.
CO5 Understanding and Implementation of Expert Systems and different Gaming playing
approaches for different types of AI applications
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Unit-3 Syllabus
Ch1.Exper Expert systems: - Introduction, basic concepts,
t systems structure of expert systems, the human element in
expert systems how expert systems works, problem
areas addressed by expert systems, expert systems
success factors, types of expert systems.
Ch2.Game Game playing Min-Max Search, Alpha-Beta Pruning
playing
Ch3. AI application in IoT(Internet of Things ), decision
Applicatio making , predictive analysis and adaptive analytics
n in IoT
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SUGGESTIVE READINGS
• TEXT BOOKS
T1. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig. Prentice-Hall, 2003
(2ndEdition).
T2. Elaine Riche, Kevin Knight and Shivashankar B. Nair, “Artificial Intelligence”, Third Edition, TMH
Educations Pvt. Ltd., 2008
• REFERENCE BOOKS
R1 Nils J. Nilsson, “The Quest for Artificial Intelligence”, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press,
2009
R2 Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems – Dan W. Patterson, Prentice Hall of India
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Predictive Analytics
Predictive Analytics is the use of mathematical and
statistical methods, including artificial intelligence and
machine learning, to predict the value or status of
something of interest. Predictive analytics can be used to
answer a vast array of questions such as:
•Which asset will fail within the next 75 days?
•How many units of product X will be sold next month?
•How much energy will a specific customer require in the
next 15 minutes?
•Which customers will likely churn in the next 30 days?
•Is this transaction fraudulent?
•Is this image a car? Source https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.r3TNTIjUQtYg2Ku_lxmdcwHaFj?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain
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Why is Predictive Analytics Important?
Predictive analytics is a core function of enterprise AI. The foundational purpose of enterprise AI applications is to serve
as “prediction engines,” providing insights to drive actions that improve business operations and performance. In the case
of AI-powered predictive maintenance, for example, these applications can alert equipment and facilities operators in
advance of critical failures, so that assets can be serviced or replaced before the failure – resulting in less unscheduled
maintenance, fewer production and revenue interruptions, and increased asset life and utilization.
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Predictive modelling
Predictive analytics models are designed to assess historical data, discover patterns,
observe trends, and use that information to predict future trends. Popular predictive
analytics models include classification, clustering, and time series models.
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Predictive analytics
Classification models
Classification models fall under the branch of supervised machine learning models. These models categorize data
based on historical data, describing relationships within a given dataset. For example, this model can be used to
classify customers or prospects into groups for segmentation purposes. Alternatively, it can also be used to answer
questions with binary outputs, such answering yes or no or true and false; popular use cases for this are fraud
detection and credit risk evaluation. Types of classification models include logistic regression, decision trees,
random forest, neural networks, and Naïve Bayes.
Clustering models
Clustering models fall under unsupervised learning. They group data based on similar attributes. For example, an
e-commerce site can use the model to separate customers into similar groups based on common features and
develop marketing strategies for each group. Common clustering algorithms include k-means clustering, mean-
shift clustering, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), expectation-maximization
(EM) clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), and hierarchical clustering.
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Predictive Analytics
Time series models
Time series models use various data inputs at a specific time frequency, such as daily, weekly, monthly, et cetera. It is
common to plot the dependent variable over time to assess the data for seasonality, trends, and cyclical behavior, which
may indicate the need for specific transformations and model types. Autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA),
ARMA, and ARIMA models are all frequently used time series models. As an example, a call center can use a time series
model to forecast how many calls it will receive per hour at different times of day.
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Predictive analytics industry use cases
Predictive analytics can be deployed in across various industries for different business problems
Human resources (HR): HR teams use predictive analytics and employee survey metrics to match prospective job
applicants, reduce employee turnover and increase employee engagement
Banking: Financial services use machine learning and quantitative tools to predict credit risk and detect fraud
Healthcare: Predictive analytics in health care is used to detect and manage the care of chronically ill patients, as well as to
track specific infections such as sepsis
Supply chain: Businesses commonly use predictive analytics to manage product inventory and set pricing strategies. This
type of predictive analysis helps companies meet customer demand without overstocking warehouses
Marketing and sales: While marketing and sales teams are very familiar with business intelligence reports to understand
historical sales performance, predictive analytics enables companies to be more proactive in the way that they engage
with their clients across the customer lifecycle
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Benefits and advantages of predictive analytics
•Risk management and fraud detection: Predictive models are integral to identifying potential risks.
Financial institutions, for example, rely on predictive analytics to detect fraudulent activities or assess
creditworthiness, enhancing security and compliance.
•Revenue growth: With accurate forecasts of demand, sales trends, and market dynamics,
organizations can strategically plan for growth. Predictive insights help optimize pricing, inventory,
and marketing campaigns to maximize profitability.
•Support for innovation: Predictive analytics enables organizations to explore new opportunities.
Insights derived from data can reveal emerging trends, helping businesses adapt and innovate.
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Benefits and advantages of predictive analytics
•Risk management and fraud detection: Predictive models are integral to identifying potential risks.
Financial institutions, for example, rely on predictive analytics to detect fraudulent activities or assess
creditworthiness, enhancing security and compliance.
•Revenue growth: With accurate forecasts of demand, sales trends, and market dynamics,
organizations can strategically plan for growth. Predictive insights help optimize pricing, inventory,
and marketing campaigns to maximize profitability.
•Support for innovation: Predictive analytics enables organizations to explore new opportunities.
Insights derived from data can reveal emerging trends, helping businesses adapt and innovate.
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Adaptive Analytics
Adaptive Analytics represents a transformative approach to data interpretation. This method allows
organizations to make informed decisions by analyzing real-time data. The ability to adapt to new
information quickly sets Adaptive Analytics apart from traditional methods.
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Adaptive Analytics
Key Characteristics
Adaptive Analytics exhibits several key characteristics. Real-time data processing enables immediate insights.
Machine learning algorithms enhance predictive capabilities. These features of adaptive analytics ensure that
models continuously learn and improve. Businesses can follow trends and adapt strategies swiftly.
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Adaptive Analytics
Machine Learning Integration
Machine learning plays a crucial role in the Adaptive Analytics system. Algorithms analyze vast amounts of data to
provide accurate predictions. Businesses use these insights to make informed decisions quickly.
Role of Algorithms
Algorithms drive the power of adaptive analytics. These tools process real-time data to identify patterns and trends.
Companies benefit from this analysis that uses machine learning to enhance decision-making capabilities.
Continuous Learning
Continuous learning is vital for adaptive analytics. Models update themselves with new data. This process ensures that
predictions remain accurate and relevant. Businesses can adapt strategies based on current information.
Case Studies:
Adaptive Learning in Business: Institutions have used adaptive learning to improve success rates. This approach benefits
underrepresented students by tailoring educational experiences.
Unique Aspects: Adaptive models adjust to individual learning needs, similar to how businesses tailor customer
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Discussion
Describe a project where predictive analytics significantly impacted business outcomes.
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References
Text Books:
T1. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig. Prentice-Hall, 2003
(2ndEdition).
T2. Elaine Riche, Kevin Knight and Shivashankar B. Nair, “Artificial Intelligence”, Third Edition,
TMH Educations Pvt. Ltd.
Reference Books:
R1 Nils J. Nilsson, “The Quest for Artificial Intelligence”, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press,
2009
R2 Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems – Dan W. Patterson, Prentice Hall of India
Web References
1 https://eicta.iitk.ac.in/knowledge-hub/data-analytics/what-is-predictive-analytics/
2. https://www.techtarget.com/searchbusinessanalytics/tip/5-step-predictive-analytics-process-cycle
Videos References :
• 1. https://youtu.be/qV76VwCG1Cs
• 2. https://youtu.be/lxCaYg1G9fE
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THANK YOU
For queries
Email: [email protected]
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