UNIT FOUR

HUMAN POPULATION
4.1 Concept and Facts about Human Population
 Human population is the number of people living in a definite area. It
is all of the people living in a specified area-such as a city, region,
country, or continent-at a given time.
 Population is one of the most critical factors that determine the socio-
economic and environmental conditions of every country in the
world.
 In geography, population geography is :-
 A branch of human geography that usually focuses on the spatial
patterns and variations of the various characteristics of human populations.
 Particularly emphasizes the spatial dimensions of population size,
structure, composition, distribution, settlement, density, migration, growth,
and other demographic processes and facts.
 Considers demographic facts in terms of their present contexts and
causes, characteristics and possible consequences to the geographical
Uses of Population Data
 Having accurate data of the population is essential for
effective socioeconomic development planning and
administration:
 Population studies in geography and other fields yield
knowledge essential for planning, especially by governments,
in fields such as health, education, housing, social security,
employment, food security, and environmental preservation.
 Moreover, the studies provide information needed in the
formulation of governments’ population policies, which seek to
modify the trends of population size, composition, and
distribution in order to achieve economic, social, and
environmental objectives.
4.1.2. Components of Population Change
 A change in the overall size of a population is the result of the
collective effects of changes in fertility, mortality and
migration.
 The three factors are collectively known as population-change
dynamics or determinants or components.
 Fertility and mortality are biological factors, while migration is
purely non-biological. The combined effect of the three factors
controls the changes in population size and composition.
Fertility:
 It is the actual occurrence of live births in a given population; it
is the beginning of life. Specifically, fertility refers to the actual
reproductive performance of a population.
 It refers to the number of live births women have.
 The study of human fertility occupies a central position in the
study of population because it is responsible for biological
replacement and maintenance of the population of the human
race.
 Fertility is affected by cultural, social, economic, and health
factors. Most of these factors operate through four other factors:
(1) the proportion of women in sexual unions;
(2) the percentage of women using contraception;
(3) the proportion of women who are currently not fecund
(primarily because of breastfeeding);
(4) the level of induced abortion.
Mortality:
 Mortality refers to the occurrence of death.
 Mortality rates, though decreasing worldwide, are higher in the
developing countries than in the developed ones.
 This difference is caused by variations in standards of living,
nutrition, medical services, personal hygiene and
environmental sanitation.
 While we all eventually die, the probability of dying during a
given time period is linked to many factors, such as age, sex,
race, occupation, and social class.
 The incidence of death can reveal much about a population’s
standard of living and health care.
Migration:
 Migration is the geographic movement of people across a
specified boundary for the purpose of establishing a new
permanent or semi-permanent residence.
 Along with fertility and mortality, migration is a component of
population change.
 The terms “immigration” and “emigration” are used to refer
to moves between countries (international migration). The
parallel terms “in-migration” and “outmigration” are used for
movement between areas within a country (internal
migration).
4.1.3. Spatial Distribution of Human Population
 Population distribution is the way that population is spread out
over a given area.
 That area can be anything from a small region to the earth as a
whole. For several reasons, human population is spread very
unevenly over the earth’s surface. This distribution of
population forms a pattern. While some areas are heavily
populated, others are sparsely populated.
 The availability of natural resources, the nature of
topography, the productivity of the soil, and many other
factors has resulted in an uneven distribution of people.
 There are densely, moderately and sparsely populated areas in
the world. The densely and sparsely populated regions of the
world are outlined below.
4.1.3.1. Densely Populated Regions:
 There are three main belts of high population density and
concentration in the world. These areas are also called
“Population Clusters’’ or ‘’Population Nodes’’.
 The three belts alone account for well over two-thirds of the total
world’s population. These regions are:
 Asiatic population belt: This belt is confined to the river basins
of Monsoon Asia. The region accounts for about 60 percent of
the world’s total population. The belt includes:
• East Asia - Japan and China are the most populous in the sub-region.
• South Asia - India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are densely populated.
 Peninsular Europe: Europe makes up 10.8 percent of the
world’s total population. It is the most developed cluster, in both
economic and demographic terms globally.
 Northeastern North America: This part of North America
(mainly the USA) is highly urbanized and industrialized. It
4.1.3.2. Sparsely Populated Regions
1. Tundra:- These areas support only a very few nomadic peoples.
2. Hot-dry lands:- Include many of the tropical desert lands.
Shortage of water and high temperature do not encourage
permanent settlement. However, in desert areas where water is
available, such as oasis and river basins, and mining sites, there are
settlements located right in the heart of hot deserts. Example: the
Sahara Desert.
3 Hot-wet lands:- Because of the unfavorable climate, there are
few people living in these areas.
4. High relief:- Includes regions of mountainous areas with high
altitude, rugged topography and cold temperature. These areas do
not encourage large settlements because the terrain makes
movement and interaction difficult.
5. Areas with poor soil:- Include very large areas of the world
which are covered by infertile soil. Such areas do not support
4.1.4 Population characteristics
 The most commonly used characteristics of population include
size, density, composition, and distribution.
Size: deals with aspects like how many people live in a given
population group, what changes are taking place in the size of the
group and how many people live in a given place at a given point
of time.
4.1.5. Sources of Population Data
 Population data refers to population information, such as
number, age, marital status, births and deaths, occupation,
religion, educational status, and other characteristics of the
human population.
 Such information is vital for studying the different aspects of
the human population.
 Population information is important for many reasons. The data
acquired through various methods is used for many purposes
that include the following.
 It provides statistical information for making decisions related
to social and economic affairs.
 It indicates future requirements of the population in terms of
social, health, education, employment and other socio-economic
needs.
 It helps policy makers to forecast the needs of the population and
to understand how to meet them.
Methods of Gathering Information about Population
I. Population Census
 Census is usually defined as “The total process of collecting,
analyzing, compiling and publishing demographic, economic
and social data of all persons in a country or delineated territory
at a specified time.”
 In other words, it is the official counting of all the people of a
certain geographical area with a well-defined boundary so as to
collect socioeconomic and demographic information about the
population.
 Census provides a wealth of demographic and socio-economic
data. The size, growth rate, fertility and mortality
characteristics, marital status, employment situations, religion,
ethnicity, income, educational status, housing conditions, sex
and age structures and much more information about the
population of a given area can be obtained through census.
The Main Features of Census
The following are the main features that distinguish census from
the rest of the sources of population data.
Government Sponsorship: It is the responsibility of the national
government to provide or seek the resources necessary to conduct
census. Obtaining them requires adequate legislative support or
legal authority.
Defined territory: census refers to specified geographical unit
such as state, country, or province. The unit needs to have its own
demarcation or boundaries.
Universality: Enumeration must include every person within the
scope of the territory without omission or duplication. Census of
population usually try to count every one in the country as of a
fixed day, often known as Census Day.
Simultaneity: The census should have a specific well-defined time,
and it should be conducted simultaneously throughout the country.
Individual Units: in censuses, data is collected on an individual
basis. The information that is obtained normally relates to
individuals rather than groups. It is compiled and published.
Periodicity: Ideally, census should be taken at certain specified
time interval, usually every ten or five years. For example, in the
United States and Ethiopia, census is conducted every ten years,
while Canada and the UK conduct census every five years.
Expensiveness: Census is the most expensive method of data
gathering. This is because of its universality which necessitates
complete coverage of the entire territory and population of the
place where the census is taken.
II. Sample Surveys
 A sample survey is the second most important and widely used
source of population data. It collects information only from a
part of the whole population.
 They are usually undertaken to generate socio-economic and
demographic data in greater detail than conventional censuses
can provide.
 Surveys are usually undertaken during a period of transition
between two consecutive censuses. They are employed to arrive
at estimates of demographic characteristics (age, sex, marital
status, etc.), population size, population distribution, mortality,
fertility and migration.
 Sample surveys are also an important source of population
statistics in areas where census is not conducted.
As compared to census, sample survey is:
 Less expensive because it does not involve the entire
population;
 Capable of providing very detailed information about the
population;
 If the sample takers are well-trained and strict supervision is in
place, it can provide data of a better quality than census; and
 Able to estimate margins of error, or the accuracy of the data.
III. Vital Registration
 It refers to the continuous registration of such vital events as
births, deaths, marriages and divorces. These events are
recorded as they occur.
 Data on vital events are gathered from birth and death
certificates, marriage licenses, divorce records and other
official registers
The completeness of registration and the reliability of the data gathered
through vital registration can be affected by several factors including the
following:
 Level of literacy and awareness of the importance of population data in the
population;
 Social custom may lead to non-registration as a result of superstitions or
taboos;
 The rural population may be widely dispersed or inaccessible.
Factors Affecting the Quality of Data
i. Inadequate financing.
ii. The use of different methods of census enumeration by different countries.
iii. Inadequate awareness about the importance of population data among the
general population.
iv. Double entry (counting of a person twice).
v. Neglecting or ignoring certain groups of people.
vi. False information about the age and the occupation of people.
vii. Lack of equal acceptance of the importance of vital registration by all
countries.
4.1.6. Population theories
The main purpose of population theory is to seek appropriate
answers to the following population-related questions.
 How large can world population ultimately become, and more
particularly how many human beings can the planet feed and
the environment sustain?
 How does population growth determine the socio-economic
issues of countries?
 How do biological, economic, social, and political factors
determine population growth?
4.1.5.1. Malthusian Population Theory
 In his work, Thomas Malthus warned of a constant tendency for
human population growth to exceed food production.
 Malthus took an exceedingly pessimistic view, arguing that
human populations are inescapably caught in a conflict between
their “need for food” and the “passion between the sexes”.
 In his essay, Malthus put forward the following three basic
propositions.
 Passion between sexes is inevitable and universal;
 Food production is limited, and population cannot increase beyond the
means of subsistence; and
 If population growth outstrips the means of subsistence, “positive
checks” will apply.
 Malthus was concerned that population would grow faster than the
supply of food. He believed that the supply of food can only
increase by a constant amount, in arithmetical progression (1 – 2 –
3 – 4 – 5), but that the human population has a tendency to multiply
in geometric progression, (1 – 2 – 4 – 8 – 16), multiplying itself by
a constant amount each time.
 Therefore, eventually population would outstrip food supply until a
catastrophe occurred. This would be in the form of famine, diseases
or war. Such catastrophes would occur as human beings fought
over increasingly scarce resources.
 Malthus referred to the catastrophes as positive checks that control
fast population growth and in the long term maintain a balance
between population and resources.
 Malthus considered that, in order to avoid the inevitable occurrence
of the positive checks, human beings should adopt preventive
checks. By preventive checks, Malthus meant “moral restraint”,
which includes late marriage, avoiding sexual conduct before
 In general, Malthus believed that the “hot passion or sexual
urge” of people could lead to overpopulation, which, in turn,
would result in poverty and other catastrophes (positive
checks).
 He concluded that “the poor are to be blamed for their own
poverty. Neither wages nor providence, nor society is to be
blamed.”
 Today, supporters of Malthus’s pessimistic view, who fear that
population growth will outstrip food supply and other
resources, leading to the catastrophic consequences (the
positive checks) predicted by Malthus, are called Malthusians
or neo-Malthusians.
4.1.5.2 Anti-Malthusian Population Theories
 Anti-Malthusians are optimists who argue against Malthus.
 They believe that either population growth will slow down well
before it is limited by scarcity of food and other resources or the
ingenuity/cleverness of humankind will solve the problems,
overcoming potential scarcities of food and other resources.
A. Marxian Population Theory
 In his theory, Marx stated that there could be no population problem
under a socialist mode of production and of ownership of
resources. He believed that population becomes a problem of
surplus people only under capitalist modes of production.
 His view was that the capitalist system not only views some of the
population as surplus in an economic sense, but also causes this
phenomenon: When existing food supplies are inadequate to
support some of the population, capitalism calls the unsupported
people surplus population. However, Marx stated, such food
scarcities are purely the result of unequal distribution of
B. Boserupian Population Theory:
 Boserup formulated an optimistic theory about the influence of
population growth on agricultural development in support of
her theory; she elaborated facts that showed population growth
would lead to agricultural development.
 For Boserup, population is a variable that contributes
positively to agricultural development, because it leads
human-kind to innovation.
 Boserup noted that, as the human population grew, the amount
of land available per-capita shrank but that, in response, people
developed more effective ways to use the land.
 With each development in land use, labor requirements grew,
and the increasing population provided the labor – and,
therefore, the means to implement these developments. In
addition, the increased labor requirements provided occupation
for the growing number of people.
 Boserup thought that “As the size of population increases, it
results in technological innovations and advancement.” For
her, population is an independent variable/factor, and
agriculture is a dependent variable/factor.
 She believed that population growth could not be controlled by
scarcity of food supply. Rather, the increasing demand for food
caused by population growth would increase agricultural
productivity by stimulating innovation in agricultural systems
and technologies.
 In this regard, she said that “Necessity is the mother of
invention”.
4.2 Human Population of the World
4.2.1 Size and Trend of World Population Growth
 For most of our history, human populations have been small,
compared to those of other species. Studies of hunting and
gathering societies (before 5000 B.C.) suggest that total world
population was probably only a few million people.
 A major change occurred about 10,000 years ago, when humans
began to domesticate animals. This advance led to increased
food supplies, which allowed the human population to grow,
reaching perhaps 50 million people by 5000 B.C.
 However, for thousands of years, the human population
increased very slowly, and it took more than 1,500 years to
reach the 500 million mark.
 Growth was not steady, but was marked by great fluctuations
dictated by climate, food supply, disease and war.
 by 1900, world population had reached 1.60 billion, and by 1960 it
stood at 3.04 billion.
 The United Nations estimated that world population reached 6
billion with an annual growth rate of 1.5% by 2000 A.D. The
number added to world population per year would increase from 80
million to 90 million if the growth rate of 1.5% continues, and world
population would double in a period of 40-50 years from about 2000
A.D. Such rapid and dramatic growth rate of the world population is
known as population explosion.
 Population doubling time is the time taken, in years, for a
population of a given region or country to double at a given rate of
population growth. It can be calculated using the following formula:

 𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 70____

 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒
 Population growth rate determines the time required for a population
to double. The lower the growth rate, the longer is the doubling
4.2.2 Spatial Distribution of World Population
 The most important characteristic feature of current world-
population distribution is its extreme unevenness.
 It was estimated, some years ago, that one-half (50%) of the
world's people was contained within about 5% of the earth's
land area while, in contrast, about 57% of the land area
contained less than 5% of the population.
 World population distribution, and hence concentration, varies
considerably across the earth, among different continents,
between individual countries, between developed countries
and developing countries, between rim lands and hinterlands,
between highlands and lowlands, and between the Northern
Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere
Factors of Population Distribution
 Numerous factors have positively and negatively influenced
population distribution. The extreme current unevenness in
population distribution is due to these factors:
 Ecological (physical) factors
 Socio-economic factors
 Political factors
 Demographic factors
 Some factors, for example, favorable climate, fertile soil,
adequate water supply, and industrial development positively
influence population concentration.
 Others, such as unfavorable climate (for example, extremely hot
or cold and dry climates), mountainous regions of very rugged
topography with poor soils, and inhospitable areas where
communication and trade are difficult, discourage large human
settlements.
Population Density
 Population density is a measurement of population per unit land
area.
 Population density, also termed as the spread of population over
space, is measurable in various ways.
 For example, we can relate numbers of inhabitants to area of
lands inhabited:
a) Crude density or Arithmetic density
b) Agricultural density or Rural density
a) Crude density or Arithmetic Density: is a measure of the
number of inhabitants per unit area. This type of measurement is

𝐂𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 = 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟

also known as human-land ratio.

𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚 (𝐤𝐦2)
b) Agricultural density or Rural density: It is the ratio of
agricultural (rural) population to cultivated land.
 Agricultural density considers only agricultural population, the
segment of an area’s population whose livelihood depends on
agricultural activities.
 The area under consideration can be a single contiguous piece
of land, or it can be multiple unjoined areas – such as the land
occupied by all rural populations in all developing countries.
 In countries like Ethiopia, almost all rural areas are occupied by
people who are engaged in agricultural activities and whose
livelihoods depend mainly on agricultural income. This may not
be the case in the developed regions.
 Agricultural population density is a more meaningful measure
than crude population density for developing countries where
agriculture is the dominant economic activity. It also gives a
better indication of population pressure on natural resources.
4.3 Population of Africa
4.3.1 Aspects of Population, Economy and Natural Resources of
Africa
Population Size, Growth and Distribution
A. Size
 Africa has one of the world’s largest populations. The continent
is the world’s second most populous next to Asia.
 According to the World Population Data sheet, by the mid of
2009, the continent had a total population of 999 million (nearly
1 billion). This makes up nearly 14.7 % of the world’s total
population.
 Africa’s population is nearly 1/4th of that of Asia, the most
populous, and 28 times that of Oceania, the least populous.
2.4. Growth
 According to the 2009 world population data sheet, the continent
had a rate of natural increase of 2.4%.
 The general growth rate, on the other hand, was 2.3%. This
appears being the highest rate in the world and twice as fast as
the world’s average growth rate.
 In terms of the period that Africa’s population needs to double
itself, the continent has the world’s shortest doubling time of
about 29 years. Such a rapid population growth rate and short
doubling time is the result of the very high fertility rate that the
continent has.
 Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) is the difference between
Birthrate and Death rate expressed in percentage.
 General Growth Rate is the difference between RNI and Net
Migration Rate expressed in percentage.
 The Doubling Time of a population is calculated by dividing 70
C. Distribution
• Africa’s population distribution is uneven. As a result, there are
areas of high and low population density. Some parts of the
continent, particularly the vast Sahara, have few permanent
residents.
• The Nile Valley of Egypt, the Atlantic coastal area that stretches
from Côte d’Ivoire to Cameroon, Rwanda, Burundi, and South
Africa’s province of KwaZulu-Natal are among the most
densely populated areas in the continent.
• The continent’s average crude population density during the
mid of 2009 was about 33 people/km2. Certain human and
physical factors are responsible for such spatial variation in the
distribution of population in the continent.
• Among the physical factors some are climate, relief, availability
of water, fertility of soil, distribution of minerals and the like.
• On the other hand, the human factors that determine the extent
to which humans inhabit a certain place include economic
conditions, political situations and other social factors.
• However, there exists a significant regional variation in
population density.
• Eastern Africa has the continent’s highest crude density of 49
p/km2 followed by Western Africa with 48 p/km2. Contrary to
this, central Africa has the continent’s lowest crude density of
19 p/km2 followed by Southern Africa (22 p/km2) and Northern
Africa (24 p/km2).
• On country level, the most populous countries are Nigeria,
Ethiopia, Egypt, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
and the Republic of South Africa (RSA). These countries all
together account for about 43% of the continent’s total
population. In terms of population density, while some are
heavily populated, others have very low population density
Determinants of Population Change in Africa
The three components that determine population change are birth
rate, death rate and migration.
 In Africa, the current population change (growth) is a function
of fertility, mortality and migration. There is frequent
migration of people within a country.
 However, these days there are not significant migrant flows
from country to country or from region to region due to lack of
pulling factors. Since most African countries are in their lower
stage of development, there are little or no opportunities to
accommodate a huge influx of people from another country.
Africa’s migration pattern is highly related to political
instabilities and natural catastrophes.
Fertility Patterns in Africa
Fertility refers to the occurrence of birth in the human population.
It is a natural positive factor that tends to increase the human
population size. Africa’s fertility rate is the highest in the world.
Birth rates are high in Africa because:
 people have less access to contraceptives;
 people are backward and poverty stricken;
 women are of low status;
 many children are needed to work on the land;
 children are considered as symbol of virility;
 people are of low educational background; and
 Many religions encourage large families.
According to the UN World population prospects of the year 2009,
the average birth rate for Africa is estimated at 36/1000.
This is the highest even for the standard of developing countries,
• Although fertility is high in Africa, it still varies from country to
country or region to region. Currently African countries having
birth rates below 30/1000 include: Mauritius 14/1000;
Tunisia 17/1000; Morocco 21/1000; South Africa 23/1000
• Other African countries comprise rates ranging from 31/1000 in
Swaziland to 50/1000 in Guinea Bissau and Nigeria. Ethiopia’s
CBR was about 39/1000 in 2009.
• Birth rate is defined as the number of live births per 1000
population in a year. For example, when we say the birth rate of
Africa is 36/1000, we mean that 36 births will occur for every
1000 people, on the average, every other year.
• Death rate is the number of deaths per 1000 population in a
year. For example, Africa’s death rate is 12/1000. This is to say
that 12 deaths will occur for every 1000 people on the average
every other year.
 The difference between birth rate and death rate is conceived as
a difference influenced by natural change.
The natural change for Africa can, therefore, be computed as:
36/1000 – 12/1000 or (36/1000 (birth rate) – 12/1000 (death rate))
= 24_ x 100 = 2.4 %.
1000
 2.4% is the natural increase for Africa
• There is an inverse relationship between the level of economic
development and the fertility rate. In Africa, the regions that
have a relatively better economic progress are likely to have
low rate of fertility.
Mortality Patterns in Africa
• Simply defined, mortality refers to the occurrence of death in
the human population.
• Africa’s mortality rate is the highest in regions. The continent
had a crude death rate of 12 deaths per 1000 population.
• When regional comparison is made, death rate ranges from
7/1000 in Northern Africa to 15/1000 in Southern Africa.
• In terms of infant mortality rate, which is the death of infants
under one year per 1000 live births, the continent still has the
world’s largest rate of 74 deaths per 1000 live births.
• Infant mortality rates also vary from region to region.
Accordingly, Central Africa has the highest rate of 95/1000
followed by Western Africa 80/1000 and Eastern Africa
76/1000 live births. The lowest Infant Mortality rate is in
Northern Africa which only 38/1000.
Africa’s high death rate is attributed to the following major factors:
 Low standard of living
 Low access to health facilities
 Poor sanitary practices
 Civil war and political instability
 Wide spread of famine caused by recurrent drought
 Poor nutrition, and
 High incidence of disease and infections
 Africa’s death rate is declining since world war II due to
development in medical technology, and sanitary practices, and the
discovery of medicines and vaccines for tropical diseases. However,
the continent’s crude death rate remains being the highest in the
world.
 Infant mortality rate is generally regarded as a prime indicator of
socioeconomic development. Infant mortality has declined from
138/1000 in 1950 to 88/1000 in 1975 – 80; and now, it is down to
 There is disparity in life expectancy between rich and poor
countries. But this has shown a significant converge over the
last 50 years despite widening wealth gap between them.
 Life expectancy at birth: is the average number of years a
newborn infant can expect to live under current mortality levels.
 The current birth and death rates of Africa reflect a very young
(and economically dependent) population of low life
expectancy.
 Almost all sub-Saharan countries have a population of under 15
years of age rated in percent at more than 40. This has resulted
in high dependency ratio in the continent.
 Africa’s life expectancies are the lowest in the world. There is
though, a wide disparity of this fact from regions to regions
within Africa ranging from 69 years for Northern Africa to 49
years for Eastern and Western Africa.
Migration
 Migration is the movement of people from their home place to
another one. Migration is a socio-cultural components of
population change. It is an important control of population change
next to fertility and mortality
 It has both negative and positive impacts based on its net effect. A
negative net migration rate tends to reduce the population of
region. On the other hand, a positive net migration rate tends to
increase population size.
 The most important aspects in the study of migration are its
motives. The motives leading to migration in Africa include:
 prevalence of diverse and wide range of climatic zones
 presence of diverse and multitude natural resources
 coincidence of the continent’s large size
 pervasiveness of varying economic activities ranging from
agriculture to trade: and existence of divergent level of economic
Characteristics of African Population
 The structure or composition of African population falls under two
categories classified thus on grounds of biological and cultural
characteristics.
 Biological characteristics include race, ethnicity, sex and age. The
cultural characteristics comprise education, health, nutrition, religion,
occupation, and the like.
Biological Characteristics
Age Structure
• Africa is a continent which could be characterized by young
population. This can be easily identified from the median age.
• If the median age is low, it implies that the population is young; for
example, Africa’s median age is 18 years. In contrast, if the median
age is high, the population is likely to be adult and old age group; for
example the median age for Europe is 37 years.
• Low median age reflects high fertility and high population growth
rates whereas high median age prevails in a population where
 Africa is the only continent which comprises high young
population, but very low old age population.
 In developing continents like Africa, the level of fertility is very
high; and so the rate of population growth is high, too. This is
readily attributed to their predominantly youthful age structure.
 As high fertility persists, the pressure on scarce resources for
development increases. The demand for food, education, health
facilities, employment opportunities, housing and other services
also increases.
 Persisting high rate of population growth constantly dwarfs
whatever is achieved in the economic sector. Resources which
could be used for development purposes, could be shifted to the
provision of basic supply for the additional members.
 The Demographic structure of a given country (region) is best
illustrated by the use of population pyramids.
 Population pyramids are used to portray the proportion of males
 Economically dependent Children (0 – 14) and elderly (65+)

Economically active Working age (15 – 64)

Let us take hypothetical countries called “X” and “Y” to calculate

dependency ratio.
Country Non-economically Economically Old age
active (0 -14) active (15 – 64) populations
X 13,387,000 31,616,000 7,307,000
Y 15,431,000 20,200,000 2,145,000
i. The dependency ratio for country x is:
 The number of dependent population under-15 years = 13,387,000
 Number of old age (dependent) population > 64 = 7,307,000
 Number of independents 15 – 64 = 31,616,000
Age dependency ratio = 13,387,000 + 7,307,000 × 100
31,616,000
Therefore, the age dependency ratio of country “X” is 65.45%
This simply means, for every 100 people of working age, there are
65.45 people who depend on them.
 When we see the age dependency ratio, of Africa by its major
region, central Africa has the highest ADR of 92.31% followed
by western and eastern Africa each of which having (88.68%)
and northern and southern Africa having 61.29% each.
 The overall ADR of Africa was 78.57% and that of sub Saharan
Africa was 85.19% in 2009.
 Focus
The following are among the major characteristics of the African
Population:
 High fertility and mortality rates;
 Generally young population;
 Triangular population pyramid indicating the prevalence of
high fertility and mortality rates;
 High age dependency ratio and youth dependency ratio and low
old dependency ratio;
 Low life expectancy; and
 High population growth rate.
Sex Structure
 Sex ratio is an important demographic characteristics. It refers
to the proportion of males to females in the overall population
of a given area. Sex ratio is expressed in terms of the number
of males for every 100 females.
Male Population
Sex Ratio = × 100
Female Population

Sex ratio is an important indicator of the economy of a given country and

is useful for regional analysis. The proportion of the two sexes in the
population of a region has impact on other demographic elements such
as marriage rate, occupational structure, growth, etc.
With regard to sex ratio, Sub-Saharan Africa sex ratio is below the
world’s average which is less than 98%. This means there are 98 males
per 100 females, which is equitably balanced.
 Most Sub-Saharan African countries, however, have sex ratio of far
less than 100. That is to say, there are greater number of women than
men. Such an event is associated with a huge loss of men
population due to war and migration.
 In some countries of the region, though, male births consistently
exceed female births due to combined biological and social reasons.
Some among such countries are equatorial Guinea, Uganda, Gambia
and Kenya.
 The context of high sex ratio in these countries is attributed to the
prevalence of a large number of immigrants. The fact that these
countries exceptionally comprise high sex ratio for reasons of
immigration indicates that migration is age and sex selective.
 If there is a large influx of population to a given country, then that
country will have high sex ratio. High sex ratio means a large
proportion of active population age group will be added to that
country.
 In countries where there is a strong rural to urban migration, the
4.4 Population of Ethiopia
4.4.1 Population Size and Growth Rate
 The population of Ethiopia was about 12 million toward the
beginning of the 20th century (1900). It had an annual growth
rate of 0.2%. Had this growth continued, the population would
have doubled in 346 years.
 The rate of growth of the population was relatively very slow
until 1920. But, after 1920, the population of Ethiopia started
growing very fast, and it took only 60 years to double.
 The 1950’s was another remarkable period. By 1960 the growth
rate quadrupled, doubling the size of the population to 23.5
million. Then, between 1960 and 1990, i.e., within thirty years,
the population once again doubled. During that period, its
growth rate tripled, compared with the rate of 1920.
 The smallest doubling period recorded was in 1996, after which
it started increasing again.
Spatial Distribution of Population
 Spatial distribution of population is the pattern created as a result
of human occupation of land surface for settlement.
 The pattern of Ethiopian population distribution is markedly
uneven. For example, we have very high population densities in
the highlands. On the other hand, the peripheral lowlands of the
country, which account for more than 50% of the total area of
the country, are very sparsely populated.
 There are variations in the distribution at the national level as
well as at lower levels for example, between and within regions,
zones, weredas and kebele administration units.
 More than 80% of the population lived in three regions –
Oromiya, Amhara and SNNPR. Their populations accounted for
36.7%, 23.3% and 20.4% of Ethiopia’s total population,
respectively.
 According to the 1984 Ethiopian census, the nation’s crude
population density was 34 persons per square kilometer. By
1994, 10 years later, it had increased to 48.3. By 2007, the crude
population density was almost double that of 1984 – about 67
persons per square kilometer.
 Of the SNNPR zones, the most densely populated are Gedeo
Kembata and Tembaro, and Sidama. Their densities exceed 400
persons per square kilometre.
 In contrast, there are places with very low population densities,
below 25 persons per square kilometre. Almost all very low-
population areas are found in the peripheral lowlands of
Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, Afar and Somali regions.
 Some of zones of very low-population densities include
Agnewak, Metekel, Kemashi, Zone one (Afar), Etang, Zone two
(Afar), Asossa zones, Warder zone, Korahe zone and Fik zone.
Factors of Population Distribution in Ethiopia
 The spatial distribution of Ethiopia’s population is uneven,
characterized by high population density on the highlands while
lowlands have very low population density.
 Such uneven distribution of population has been the result of
ecological (physical) factors and human factors.
 More important physical factors include climate (mainly rainfall
and temperature), soil, vegetation and relief (altitude).
 The human factors primarily consist of historical factors, for
example peopling of the country and migration, development of
infrastructure, types of economic activities and political factors
related to government policies such as resettlement programs,
land tenure system, villagization process, etc.
 All these factors individually or collectively have influenced
human settlements favorably or adversely. They have either
encouraged or discouraged settlement.
4.4.2. Components of Population Change in Ethiopia
A. Fertility in Ethiopia
 Before studying the fertility characteristics of the population of
Ethiopia, become familiar with the following measures of
fertility.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR): this is the total number of births
occurring in a given year, per 1000 population.
General Fertility Rate (GFR): this one is the number of births
occurring in a given year per 1000 women in the reproductive ages
(i.e., women aged 15-49).
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): this is the number of births
that occur in a given year per woman in the reproductive ages,
presented in five-year age groups.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): this is the number of children a
woman may have produced by the end of her reproductive period,
given the current ASFR.
 Ethiopia’s total fertility rate is one of the highest in the world. In
1984, TFR was 7.52 per woman. By 1994 it dropped to 6.74 ,
and then to 5.4 in 2010.
 There is significant fertility variation between urban and rural
areas. For example, in 1984, TFR in urban areas was 6.33, while
it was 8.08 in rural areas.
 In 2010 these rates, respectively, dropped to 4.5 and 7.19.
 Fertility also varies from region to region. In 1994, Oromiya and
the SNNPR recorded the highest TFRs, reaching as high as 7.26
and 7.16, respectively. In contrast to this, Addis Ababa, Dire
Dawa, Harari and Gambella recorded TFRs of less than 4.3.
 The total fertility rate (TFR) for Ethiopia is 5.4 children per
woman. This means that the total number of children an
Ethiopian woman would have by the end of her child-bearing
period (reproductive age) is about 5.4 children.
 In general, fertility rates are high in Ethiopia due to the
following major factors.
 Low levels of family planning practices, due to lack of
awareness and religious beliefs;
 Early marriage, particularly of females;
 Perception of high social and economic value of children;
 Low social status of women; and
 Relatively high infant and child mortality (death) rates, which
leads parents to produce larger number of offspring, in
compensation.
B. Mortality in Ethiopia:
 Mortality is the measure of frequency of deaths in a population.
 Ethiopia has one of the highest levels of mortality in the world
 The main causes of such high mortality are the effects of
poverty, low living standards and poor access to health services.
Before studying the mortality characteristics of Ethiopia’s
population, become familiar with the following measures of
mortality.
Crude Death Rate (CDR): this is the total number of deaths
occurring in a given year, per 1000 people.
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): this is the number of deaths in a
year among infants under one year of age, per 1000 live births.
Child Mortality Rate (CMR): this is the number of deaths in a
year among children between one and five years of age, per 1000
children between the same ages.
Under-Five Mortality Rate: this is the number of deaths in a year
among infants and children between birth and five years of age, per
1000 live births.
Maternal Mortality rate (MMR): this is the annual number of
maternal deaths occurring during pregnancy, child birth, or within
two months after the birth or termination of pregnancy, per 1000
women between 15 and 49 years of age (reproductive age).
Adult Mortality Rate (AMR): this is the number of deaths in a
year among adults between 15 and 49 years of age, per 1000 adults
in the same age group.
Age-Specific Death Rate (ASDR): this is the number of deaths
that occur in a given year per 1000 of the population in five-year
age group.
Life Expectancy: this is the average number of years a newborn
baby is expected to live if he/she is exposed throughout life to the
prevailing pattern of age-specific death rates.
 The main causes of children death are measles, malaria,
malnutrition, and acute respiratory infections such as pneumonia
and influenza.
 However, despite all of the current factors that cause deaths in
Ethiopia, mortality rates have decreased because of improved
medical technology and the population’s improved access to
health services.
4.4.3. Population Structure of Ethiopia
Age Structure:
 Age structure is the distribution of a given population into age
groups. This structure becomes clear after we group all of the
people in that population by age. In other words, age structure is
the pattern that results from the distribution of members of a
population into different age categories.
 Two important statistical tools for understanding age structure are
age groups and population pyramids.
Age Groups: Although we can use different sets of numbers to
define age groups, the most widely used age groups are:
 The five-year age groups 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, …, 60-64, 65+ and
broad age groups 0-14, 15-64, 65+.
 In the broad age groups, age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ are
known, respectively, as young age (the young dependent
population), working age (the economically active population) and
 Ethiopia’s population is predominantly young. It has persistently
remained so, at least since 1970.
 On average, about 45% of the population is young and
economically dependent. Elderly people account for about 3% of
the total. This would mean only 52% of the population is
economically active and supports both itself and the rest of the
population.
 Ethiopia has one of the largest non-productive populations in the
world. This is a direct result of the country’s high fertility rate.
 With such a large dependent young population, government
expenditure for education, health, shelter, food and other basic
social services is very high.
 The only way that Ethiopia can release this large amount of
budgetary resources for more economically productive
investments is by reducing its dependency ratio.
 Population Pyramid: It is the graphic representation of the age
distribution of a given population by sex.
 In countries where birth rates are high and death rates are also
high, the population pyramid has the form of a triangle. This
pattern is typical of the population of developing countries like
Ethiopia, in which many children are born, but few reach old age.
 In contrast, in the developed countries, with their lower birth rates
and fewer people dying young, the population pyramid is more
rectangular, narrowing only near its top. In these countries, both
birth and death rates decline, with a result showing the number of
people in each group at equivalent state.
 In general, population pyramids of developing countries like
Ethiopia have very broad bases, showing the dominance of the
young-age population. These pyramids become increasingly
narrower towards the top, advancing through the age groups,
showing that the percentage of the population becomes less and
less in the upper age groups (65-69, 70-74, etc.).
 Age structure/composition is one of the most important
demographic characteristics of a population.
 Age information is often used to understand the sizes of school-
age, labor-force, elderly, and other populations.
 A population pyramid is usually employed to show the age
distribution of a given population by sex.
 The population pyramid of Ethiopia has a broad base that narrows
towards the top as age increases. This shape is typical of a
population with high fertility rate.
The Age Dependency Ratio (ADR) is the relationship between the
working or economically active population and the non-working
population.
 The Age Dependency Ratio (ADR) is used to show the magnitude
of this dependency in a given population. This means that the
dependency burden, represented by the non-working population in
the young and old age groups, on the working-age population can
The formula for calculating the age dependency ratio (ADR) is:
ADR = (% of popun aged (0-4) + (% of popn aged 65+) X 100
% of population aged 15-64
The negative implications of heavy youth dependency in
Ethiopia can be summarized as follows.
 Even higher levels of fertility are likely to be reached when the
youth group reaches reproductive age.
 The capacity to save is highly constrained at both the household
and the national level.
 Limited national resources must be diverted from investment
and other developmental activities in order to use those
resources to provide services and meet the young peoples’ basic
needs, such as food, housing, education, health care, etc.
 The demand for the nation’s employment opportunities will
increase as the youth group reaches working age; this results in a
further high levels of unemployment.
Sex Structure
 Sex structure is very important for demographic analysis because it
provides useful information about reproductive potential, human
resources, and so on.
 The sex structure of a population is shown by its sex ratio, which is
the ratio of male population to female population. Sex ratio is usually
expressed as the number of males per 100 females in a population. A
ratio greater than 100 shows a greater number – called an excess – of
males than females.
 The sex ratio of Ethiopia’s population increased from 99.4 in 1984 to
101.3 in 1994; and to 101.9, in 2007.
 The low sex ratio during the 1980s appears to be due to political
unrest and civil war. During those years, a large number of the male
population was killed or was forced to migrate to other countries to
escape being killed or forcibly conscripted into the military.
 Sex ratios in Ethiopia are generally lower for urban areas and higher
for rural areas. This is primarily due to large number of females
4.4.4 Impacts of Rapid Population Growth
Deforestation: is refers to the removal of forest cover of an area
without adequate replacement. In other words, it is the process of
the indiscriminate destruction of the natural vegetation cover of a
forest area.
The forest cover resource of Ethiopia has been declining
significantly over time. This is caused mainly by rapid population
growth and the increasing population’s needs for forest resources
such as wood and land. Many people in the country wood for
cooking, heating, and lightning, as well as for houses and furniture.
Similarly, the increasing demand for agricultural and settlement
lands is a major cause of forest destruction in the country.
Such deforestation has various negative consequences, both
directly on the natural environment, and indirectly on the socio-
economic conditions of the people.
Its direct consequences include the following.
 It accelerates soil erosion.
 It destroys biodiversity.
 It affects rainfall by decreasing evapotranspiration.
 It results in shortages of wood supply.
 It affects the natural beauty of the affected areas.
Pollution: refers to any undesirable change in natural conditions of
water, air, and other components of the natural environment that
has negative effects on the health and activities of human beings
and other living creatures.
 In Ethiopia, rapid population growth leads to environmental
pollution by increasing emission of the amounts of pollutants such
as:
 Sewage, solid wastes, and pollutant gases generated by
households.
 Pollutant gases, liquids, and solid chemicals generated by
expanded industries.
 Pollutant gases generated by the increasing number of
automobiles.
 Agricultural pollutants, such as fertilizers, pesticides, animal
wastes, etc.
4.4.5. Population Policy of Ethiopia
 A population policy is a policy that is formulated and
implemented by a government in order to plan and control
population growth, based on the economic, social, cultural,
political, and demographic conditions of the country.
 It is needed mainly to address population related problems in a
country.
 The population policies of countries can be broadly categorized
into two groups as: anti-natalist and pro-natalist policies.
Anti-natalist population policy seeks to lower fertility rates, in
particular, and population growth rates, in general.
Pro-natalist population policy seeks to increase fertility rates, in
particular, and population growth rates, in general.
 Similar to most of the developing countries, the type of population
policy used in Ethiopia is basically anti-natalist. Such policies
promote lowered fertility rates, in particular, and lowered population
Goals and Strategies of Ethiopia’s Population Policy
Ethiopia’s anti-natal population policy formulates several goals and
strategies to regulate population for the overall good of the country.
General objectives of Ethiopia’s population policy include:
 Closing the gap between high population growth and low
economic productivity, through planned reduction of population
growth and increasing economic returns;
 Expediting socio-economic development processes through
holistically integrated development programs;
 Reducing the rate of rural-to-urban migration;
 Ensuring environmental protections;
 Reducing morbidity and mortality;
 Raising the economic and social status of women; and
 Improving the social and economic status of vulnerable groups,
such as adolescents, children, and the elderly.
Specific objectives of Ethiopia’s population policy include:
 Reducing the total fertility rate (TFR) of 7.7 children per woman
in 1990 to 4.0 by the year 2015;
 Increasing the prevalence of contraceptive use from 4.0 percent
in 1990 to 44 percent in 2015;
 Reducing maternal, infant, and child morbidity and mortality
rates, as well as promoting the level of general welfare of the
population;
 Significantly increasing female participation at all levels of the
educational system;
 Removing all legal and customary practices that prevent women
from the full enjoyment of economic and social rights, including
the full enjoyment of property rights and access to gainful
employment;
 Ensuring spatially balanced population distribution patterns,
with a view to maintaining environmental security and extending
the scope of development activities;
 Improving productivity in agricultural activities and introducing
off-farm and non-agricultural activities for the purpose of
employment diversification; and
 Mounting effective country-wide population information and
programs that address issues pertaining to small family size and its
relationship to human welfare and environmental security.
Ethiopia’s Population-Policy Strategies
The strategies by which the goals and objectives of the population
policy are to be attained include the following.
 Expanding contraceptive distribution;
 Diversifying available contraceptive methods;
 Raising the minimum age of marriage for girls from 15 years to
at least 18 years;
 Promoting breast-feeding as a means of birth-spacing;
 Implementing career counseling services in schools;
 Integrating women into the modern sector of the economy;
 Amending all laws “impeding, in any way, the access of women
to all social, economic, and cultural resources”;
4.4.6. Urbanization
 Urbanization is the process of population shifts from rural areas
to cities, and the resulting growth of urban areas. It is the process
whereby large numbers of people leave countryside/rural places
and small towns in order to settle in cities and surrounding
metropolitan/urban areas.
 A nation is said to have become more urbanized as its cities
grow in number, its urban populations increase in size, and the
proportion of its population living in urban areas rises.
 The degree of urbanization varies throughout the world but
generally reflects the wealth of individual countries. The rich,
industrialized countries tend to be the most highly urbanized,
while the poor countries tend to be the least urbanized..
 In the Netherlands, for example, 89 percent of the population is
urban, compared to only 20 percent in Ethiopia.
 In most developing countries, including Ethiopia, most rural
migrants to the cities have bettered themselves in comparison to
their former standard of living in rural areas. However, the rapid
growth of population in urban centers of such countries has been
causing serious problems such as overcrowding, substandard
housing, homelessness, inadequate municipal services, crime,
poverty, and pollution.
 Today, these characteristics mark the lives of many people in
most urban centers of the developing countries. Dealing with
these conditions, especially in very large cities like Addis Ababa,
presents massive difficulties for governments
Urban settlements
 Urban settlement: refers to town or city settlements. People in
urban areas depend on non-agricultural activities. In most cases,
it is difficult to give an exact definition for urban centres. Some
of the criteria used to identify urban centres include the official
status of urban settlement, size of population, and occupation of
the population.
Current Urban Challenges
 The outcome of rapid urbanization in Africa is that they pose
challenges to the growing cities. Cities serve as major growth
engines by providing opportunities for employment, education,
technology, etc.
 These conditions, in turn, transfer markets for industrial and
agricultural products; consequently, urbanization leads to further
expansion of the cities where by their peripheral areas end up in
changes of land use.
 The conversion of farm lands and watersheds for residential
purposes has negative results in food security, water supply and
the health of the people.
 The adverse effects of urbanization in Africa are absence of
employment opportunity, unreliable food security, shortage of
water, scarcity of shelter and inefficient waste disposal, etc.
Factors affecting urbanization in Ethiopia
Factors Contributing to Urbanization in the nation include:
• firstly, peoples’ need for better living conditions this has been
the major cause for the origin, growth and development of many
of the urban centers;
• secondly, people’s desire to come close to clustered settlements,
many rural Ethiopians have been motivated to move and settle in
urban places where there are relatively higher concentration of
social services, industries, and employment opportunities.