What is Climate Change
Climate is the average weather at a given
point and time of year, over a long period
(typically 30 years).
We expect the weather to change a lot
from day to day, but we expect the climate
to remain relatively constant.
If the climate doesn’t remain constant, we
call it climate change.
The key question is what is a significant
change – and this depends upon the
underlying level of climate variability
introduction
introduction
introduction
• In other words, climate change includes major
changes in
• temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns,
among other effects, that occur over several
decades or longer
Introduction
Climate change is happening
• Our Earth is warming. Earth's average
temperature has risen by 1.5°F over the past
century, and is projected to rise another 0.5 to
8.6°F over the next hundred years.
• Small changes in the average temperature of
the planet can translate to large and
potentially dangerous shifts in climate and
weather.
introduction
The evidence is clear.
• Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by
changes in weather and climate. Many places have
seen changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods,
droughts, or intense rain, as well as more frequent and
severe heat waves.
• The planet's oceans and glaciers have also experienced
some big changes - oceans are warming and becoming
more acidic, ice caps are melting, and sea levels are
rising.
• As these and other changes become more pronounced
in the coming decades, they will likely present
challenges to our society and our environment.
Causes of climate change
• Both natural and human factors change Earth’s climate
• Over the past century, human activities have released
large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases into the atmosphere.
• The majority of greenhouse gases come from burning
fossil fuels to produce energy, although deforestation,
industrial processes, and some agricultural practices also
emit gases into the atmosphere.
• Most of the observed warming since the mid-20th
century is due to human-caused greenhouse gas
emissions.
Causes of climate change
• Volcanoes, fires, and respiration (breathing) also
add CO2 to the atmosphere.
Carbon
Cycle
Causes of climate change
•Huge volcanic
eruptions can
cool Earth by
injecting ash
and tiny
particles into
the
stratosphere.
Human Causes of climate change
Human Causes of climate change
Human Causes of climate change
• Greenhouses gases, such as carbon dioxide, trap
heat in the atmosphere and regulate our climate.
• These gases exist naturally, but humans add more
carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels for energy
(coal, oil, and natural gas) and by clearing forests.
• Greenhouse gases act like a blanket. The thicker the
blanket, the warmer our planet becomes.
• At the same time, the Earth’s oceans are also
absorbing some of this extra carbon dioxide, making
them more acidic and less hospitable for sea life
Human Causes of climate change
How long do they stay in the atmosphere?
• Each of these gases can remain in the
atmosphere for different amounts of time,
ranging from a few years to thousands of years.
• All of these gases remain in the atmosphere long
enough to become well mixed, meaning that the
amount that is measured in the atmosphere is
roughly the same all over the world, regardless of
the source of the emissions.
• The extent of future climate change depends
on what we do now to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
• The more we emit, the larger future changes
will be.
GHGs emission
1,850
1,800
1,750
1,700
MMTCE
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Human Causes of climate change-GHG
Carbon dioxide (CO2) :
• Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through
burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil),
solid waste, trees and wood products, and also as
a result of certain chemical reactions (e.g.,
manufacture of cement).
• Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere
(or "sequestered") when it is absorbed by plants
as part of the biological carbon cycle.
Human Causes of climate change-GHG
Carbon dioxide (CO2) :
• Cement manufacture
– calcium carbonate is heated to produce lime
– In 1998, the United States manufactured an
estimated 85.5 million metric tons of cement,
resulting in the direct release of carbon dioxide
containing about 10.6 million metric tons of
carbon into the atmosphere.
19
Human Causes of climate change-GHG
Methane (CH4) :
• Methane is emitted during the production
and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil.
• Methane emissions also result from livestock
and other agricultural practices and by the
decay of organic waste in municipal solid
waste landfills.
Human Causes of climate change-GHG
Nitrous oxide (N2O) :
• Nitrous oxide is emitted during agricultural
and industrial activities, as well as during
combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.
Human Causes of climate change-GHG
Fluorinated gases :
• Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur
hexafluoride, and nitrogen trifluoride are
synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are
emitted from a variety of industrial processes.
• These gases are typically emitted in smaller
quantities, but because they are potent
greenhouse gases, they are sometimes
referred to as High Global Warming Potential
gases ("High GWP gases").
How much does each GHG contribute to climate change?
• Energy retention in
the atmosphere
CO2
depends on the
abundance and
effectiveness of the
GHG.
• The diagram shows CH4
how much each gas
N 2O
contributed to
warming from 1750 to
2005 (termed radiative
forcing). 23
Greenhouse Effect
• The Process by which atmosphere gases absorb
heat energy from the sun and prevent heat
from leaving our atmosphere.
• In other words, greenhouse gases trap heat
energy and keep it close to earth.
How much solar radiation
reaches Earth?
The Earth’s
surface only
absorbs 51%
of incoming
solar radiation
Human Causes of climate change
Deforestation
• Forests help protect the planet by
absorbing massive amounts of carbon
dioxide (CO2), the most abundant type
of pollution that causes climate change.
• Unfortunately, forests are currently
being destroyed or damaged at an
alarming rate.
• Logging and clearing land for agriculture
or livestock release huge amounts of
carbon dioxide and other harmful
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
• It also diminishes those regions’ ability
to absorb carbon pollution.
Human Causes of climate change
Fossil Fuels
•Burning fossil fuels, such as coal, oil
and natural gas, to generate energy
has the greatest impact on the
atmosphere than any other single
human activity.
•Globally, power generation is
responsible for about 23 billion
tonnes of CO2 emissions per year – in
excess of 700 tonnes every second.
•Coal is especially damaging to our
atmosphere, releasing 70% more
carbon dioxide than natural gas for
every unit of energy produced.
Human Causes of climate change
Human Causes of climate change
Human Causes of climate change
Human Causes of climate change
Causes of climate change
Source: U.S. National Climate Assessment (2014)
• Our lives are connected to the climate.
Human societies have adapted to the
relatively stable climate we have enjoyed since
the last ice age which ended several thousand
years ago.
• A warming climate will bring changes that can
affect our water supplies, agriculture, power
and transportation systems, the natural
environment, and even our own health and
safety.
Effects of climate change
The most recent
assessment report from the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) says
that the earth’s average
temperature has risen by
0.74 degrees in the period
from 1906 to 2005, and
that the average
temperature will continue
to rise.
Effects of climate change
Sea level has risen
worldwide
approximately 15-20
cm (6-8 inches) in
the last century.
Approximately 2-5
cm (1-2 inches) of
the rise has resulted
from the melting of
Warming + Melting = Sea Level Rise mountain glaciers.
Effects of climate change
Effects of climate change
Effects of climate change
Effects of climate change
Effects on ecosystems
Effects on ecosystems
• Increased warmth has also affected living
things. For example, the Japanese keep very
detailed records on the blossoming of their
Tokyo cherry trees, so they know they are
blooming 5 days earlier on average than they
were 50 years ago.
• Also mosquitoes, birds, and insects are
moving north in the Northern Hemisphere.
Effects of climate change
Future Climate Change
• Global climate is projected to continue to
change over this century and beyond.
• The magnitude of climate change beyond the
next few decades depends primarily on the
amount of heat-trapping gases emitted
globally, and how sensitive the Earth’s climate
is to those emissions.
Future Climate Change
Future changes will depend on many factors
The magnitude and rate of future climate change will
primarily depend on the following factors:
• The rate at which levels of greenhouse gas
concentrations in our atmosphere continue to increase
• How strongly features of the climate (e.g. temperature,
precipitation, and sea level) respond to the expected
increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
• Natural influences on climate (e.g. from volcanic activity
and changes in the sun's intensity) and natural processes
within the climate system (e.g. changes in ocean
circulation patterns)
Future Climate Change
• Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will
have many effects
• Future Ice, Snowpack, and Permafrost
• Future Temperature Changes
• Future Sea Level Change
• Future Precipitation and Storm Events
• Future Ocean Acidification
Future Climate Change
1. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will have many
effects
Increased concentrations are expected to:
• Increase Earth's average temperature
• Influence the patterns and amounts of precipitation
• Reduce ice and snow cover, as well as permafrost
• Raise sea level
• Increase the acidity of the oceans
• Increase the frequency, intensity, and/or duration of
extreme events
• Shift ecosystem characteristics
• Increase threats to human health
This figure shows projected
greenhouse gas concentrations for
four different emissions pathways.
The top pathway assumes that
greenhouse gas emissions will
continue to rise throughout the
current century.
The bottom pathway assumes that
emissions reach a peak between
2010 and 2020, declining
thereafter.
Source:
Graph created from data in the
Representative Concentration
Pathways Database (Version 2.0.5)
Future Climate Change
2.Future Temperature Changes
Future temperatures are expected to change further. Climate
models project the following key temperature-related changes.
Key Global Projections
• Increases in average global temperatures are expected to be
within the range of 0.5°F to 8.6°F by 2100,
• Except under the most aggressive mitigation scenario studied,
global average temperature is expected to warm at least twice
as much in the next 100 years as it has during the last 100 years.
• Ground-level air temperatures are expected to continue to
warm more rapidly over land than oceans.
• Some parts of the world are projected to see larger temperature
increases than the global average.
Future Climate Change
3. Future Precipitation and Storm Events
• Patterns of precipitation and storm events,
including both rain and snowfall are also likely
to change.
• Projections show that future precipitation and
storm changes will vary by season and region.
• Some regions may have less precipitation,
some may have more precipitation, and some
may have little or no change.
Future Precipitation and Storm Events
Key Global Projections
• Global average annual precipitation through the end of
the century is expected to increase, although changes
in the amount and intensity of precipitation will vary
significantly by region.
• The strength of the winds associated with tropical
storms is likely to increase. The amount of precipitation
falling in tropical storms is also likely to increase.
• Annual average precipitation is projected to increase in
some areas and decrease in others. The figure to the
right shows projected regional differences in
precipitation under two emission scenarios.
Future Climate Change
4. Future Ice, Snowpack, and Permafrost
• Arctic sea ice is already declining. The area of
snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has
decreased since about 1970.
• Over the next century, it is expected that sea
ice will continue to decline, glaciers will
continue to shrink, snow cover will continue to
decrease, and permafrost will continue to
thaw
Future Climate Change
• Future Ice, Snowpack, and Permafrost
Key Global Projections
• For every 2°F of warming, models project about a 15%
decrease in the extent of annually averaged Arctic sea ice
and a 25% decrease in the area covered by Arctic sea ice at
the end of summer (September)
• The coastal sections of the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets are expected to continue to melt or slide into the
ocean. If the rate of this ice melting increases in the 21st
century, the ice sheets could add significantly to global sea
level rise.
• Glaciers are expected to continue to decrease in size. The
rate of melting is expected to continue to increase, which
Future Climate Change
5. Future Sea Level Change
• Warming temperatures contribute to sea level rise
by: expanding ocean water; melting mountain
glaciers and ice caps; and causing portions of the
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to melt or flow
into the ocean.
• Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 7.5
inches.
• Estimates of future sea level rise vary for different
regions, but global sea level for the next century is
expected to rise at a greater rate than during the past
50 years.
• Studies project global sea level to rise by another 1 to
4 feet by 2100.
Future Climate Change
6. Future Ocean Acidification
• Oceans become more acidic as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
in the atmosphere dissolve in the ocean. ocean waters are
constantly reacting with environmental gasses. In particular,
the oceans absorb up to half of the carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere.
• In this case, the upper level or layer of the ocean or seawater
absorbs , forming Carbonic acid.
Here is the chemical equation:
• H2O +Co2=H2CO3
• This change is measured on the pH scale, with lower values
being more acidic.
• The pH level of the oceans has decreased by approximately 0.1
pH units since pre-industrial times, which is equivalent to an
Future Climate Change
6.Future Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification adversely affects many marine
species, including plankton, mollusks, shellfish,
and corals.
• As ocean acidification increases, the availability of
calcium carbonate will decline. Calcium carbonate
is a key building block for the shells and skeletons
of many marine organisms.
• If atmospheric CO2 concentrations double, coral
calcification rates are projected to decline by
more than 30%.
Measures on controlling the problem
• Produce more fuel-efficient vehicles
• Improve energy-efficiency in buildings
• Increase solar power
• Decrease deforestation/plant forest
However, the longer we wait to
reduce emissions, the higher the
target will need to be, and the more
adaptation will be necessary.
