Climate and Disaster Risk

Assessment (CDRA)

Adopted from the Presentation of Enp Ibani Padao, DHSUD

Climate and Disaster Risk
Assessment (CDRA)
Overview

Adopted from the Presentation of Enp Ibani Padao, DHSUD

Topic Outline
- Rationale and Purpose of Mainstreaming
CDRA into the Local Planning Process
- Guiding Concepts and Frameworks of
CDRA
- CDRA 5-Step Process
- Mainstreaming Framework of CDRA into
the
CLUP Process
Guides for mainstreaming CCA-DRR into CLUP and ZO
and conducting the CDRA Process

Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Supplemental Guidelines on Mainstreaming

Risk Reduction (Volume 2, CLUP Climate and Disaster Risks in the
Guidebook 2014, Comprehensive
HLURB) Land Use Plan (Project Climate Twin Phoenix:
HLURB/Climate Change
Commission/UNDP/AusAID)
Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into CLUP
Better understand natural hazards and climate
change and how these would likely alter the
development path of the locality

Understand risks posed by natural hazards and

climate change on exposed areas, sectors and
communities

Identify priority decision areas and development

challenges posed by climate change and
natural hazards
Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into CLUP

Determine realistic projections on demand and

supply of land

Incorporate spatial development goals,

objectives and targets to reduce risks and
vulnerabilities

Make informed decisions to effectively address

risks and vulnerabilities
Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into CLUP

Identify appropriate risk reduction and climate

change adaptation and mitigation measures as
inputs to the comprehensive development
planning and investment programming
CDRA

CLUP LDRRMP

CDP LCCAP
Convergence of Climate Change
Adaptation and Disaster Risk
Management

ial ns
nt ctio
te e
Po onn
C
 Climate POPULATION

Disaster
and
Risk URBAN USE

Assessmen
AREAS
 studying risks and
t
NATURAL-
vulnerabilities of exposed RESOURCE
elements associated with BASED
PRODUCTI
natural hazards and ON
AREAS
climate change. LIFELINE
UTILITIES

CRITICAL
POINT
FACILITIE
S
Cl i mat e a nd
Di s a s t er Ri s k
AsCLIMATE
s es s ment
CHANGES DISASTER RISK
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT
CLIMATE
Temperatu HAZAR
re Rainfall
PROJECTI
Extreme
DS
ON
Events
FLOODING TSUNA
Sea Level
LANDSLIDES MI
Rise
Forest POPULA
CLIMA LIFELI
Agriculture TION URBAN
TE NE
Coastal USE
IMPA UTILIT
Area AREAS
CT IES
Urban NATU
CHAI CRITICAL
Area RAL
NS POINT
RESOURCE-
BASED FACILITIE
S
Conceptual
Frameworks
- CLIMATE CHANGE
VULNERABILITY
ASSESSMENT (IPCC
AR 4)

- DISASTER
RISK
ASSESSMENT
(UN)
AR 5 Conceptual
Framework
 CCA/
Proposed Process for DRR-
Enhance
Mainstreaming CCA/DRRM in the
4
d CLUPs
CLUP
3 CLUP Review/Adoption and

2
Approval
Integrate Risk Assessment Results and
Enhancement of the CLUP

1 Data
Collection/validation
and Analysis
Preparatory
Activities and
apply
Existin climate/disaster
g lens
CLUPs
 ENTRY POINT FOR
Step CLUP PROCESS CCA/DRRM
INTEGRATION
4 Situation Analysis • Conduct CCA/Disaster Risk
• Data Gathering and Land Use Surveys Assessment and
• Base Map Preparation • Vulnerability Assessment
• Sectoral Studies and Physical/Land Use • Conduct adaptive capacity
Studies assessment
• Mapping of Results • Use results to conduct
• Consultation/Validation Workshops analysis of Climate
• Need/Issues Analysis and projections change/risk impacts to land
• Cross-sectoral Analysis and Integration use and exposed
population, socio-economic
conditions, infrastructure
system
• Identify/Propose
policies/mitigating
/adaptation measures.
 THE CDRA
PROCESS
• Collect and Organize Climate Change and
Step Hazard Information
1
• Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and
Step Climate Change
2
• Develop Exposure Data Base
Step
3
• Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk
Step Assessment
4
• Summarize Findings
Step
5
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate and
hazard information

1
4
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information

Local climate change scenario

The climate projections are available
for each region and province of the
country. The municipality or city, at
first pass, may consider the
provincial data, and consult PAGASA
on the applicability.
■ Seasonal Temperature
■ Seasonal Rainfall
■ Frequency of Extreme Events
Climate Change Projections (Seasonal Mean
Temperature) Medium-range
SEASON Emission
Scenario
2020 2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 0.9 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2

Warm months
becoming
hotter
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate and
hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their
characteristics Climate Adjusted Flood Hazard
Rain-induced
Maps (flood modelling)
Landslide
Susceptibility Map
 Step 1. Collect and analyze climate and
hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their characteristics
Characterizing Hazard:
Spatial Extent - areas within the municipality/city and certain barangays that are
likely to be inundated or affected by a particular hazard;

Magnitude/Intensity - the estimated strength of the hazard that will impact an area
(i.e. Flood can be expressed in water depth, water flow velocity, and/or duration,

storm surge expressed in wave heights, earthquake ground shaking expressed as

intensity scale);

Frequency/Probability of occurrence - refers to the likelihood or the average

recurrence interval (expressed in years) that a hazard event may happen; chance of
it occurring per year (expressed in percentage)
 Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their characteristics
Characterizing Hazard:

Duration – refers to how long the hazard will occur (expressed in minutes, days,
weeks etc.)

Predictability – refers to the ability of human systems/technologies to accurately

determine when a hazard might occur including its characteristics.

Speed of Onset – whether the occurrence of the hazard is slow/creeping (i.e.

SLR, Drought) or rapid/fast (Flashfloods, earthquakes, Landslides).
 Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information Historical disaster
No. of casualties No. of Affected damage/loss data
No. of houses Damage to Properties Source Affected
Observed of
Hazard Events Daily
and Barangays
Description Private/ Informat
Rainfall Dead
Inst. Injured
Total Missing Persons Families Totally Partially Infra Agri
Comm’l ion
D ece m b e r 2 6 ,, 1 9 9 3 : flo o d d u e to
D isaste r
Ty p h o o n Puring. Aff ected
All ba rangays 0 0 0 6,960 1,160 0 200 1,126,350 2,137,500 0 0 3,263,850 report
m ajority of the populati on.

Brgys. Pautao,
7 -Jan -0 2 : Flo o d d u e to h e avy rain . D u g s a n go n , P yap ag , Disaster
1 0 0 No data 634 0 0 No data No data 0 0 0
Aff ected fi ve ba rangays. Pongtu d and report
C am b u ayo n
Brgys. Poblacion,
D ece m b e r 2 2 , 2 0 0 3 : flo o d d u e to C am p o , P au tao ,
D isaste r
conti nuous heav y rains. Aff ected C a b u ga o, 0 0 0 775 155 0 5 1,079,000 1,646,250 0 0 2,725,250
report
Payapa g ,
7 bara ngays.
Dugsangoand
C am b u ayo n

Brgys. Poblacion,
D ece m b e r 2 3 , 2 0 0 5 : flo o d d u e to C am p o , P au tao ,
D isaste r
conti nuous heav y rain. Aff ected 7 C a b u ga o, Payapa g , 1 0 0 378 68 0 0 0 8,373,985 0 0 8,373,985
report
D u g san g o n ,an d P o n g t
ba rangays.
ud

Jan . 1 0 -1 6 , 2 0 0 9 : flo o d d u e to
D isaste r
conti nuous heav y rain. Aff ected All ba rangays 0 0 0 No Data 433 0 41 3,050,000 1,197,135 0 0 4,247,135
report
all ba rangays
Jan .1 -3 , 2 0 1 1 : flo o d d u e to
D am ag e
conti nuous heav y rain. Aff ected All ba rangays 0 0 0 No Data No Data 0 0 4,000,000 483,000 0 0 4,483,000
Report
all ba rangays.
Jan . 2 4 -Feb . 2 , 2 0 1 1 flo o d d u e to
2 , 0 3 7 / 256
conti nuous heav y rain. 256 D am ag e
All ba rangays 0 0 0 10,185 Evacuated 0 0 6,100,000 4,267,794 0 0 10,367,794
fam ilie s e vacu ate d to e vacu atio n Report
2
center. 0
 Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information
Summary barangay level hazard
inventory matrix Table 3.4 . Sample Hazard Inventory
Rain- Matrix
Baranga Floo Typhoo Sea level Coastal
Induced
y d Storm surge Drought n Rise Erosion
Brgy. √ landslide √ √ √ √ √
1 √ √ √ √
Brgy. √ √ √ √
2
√ √ √ √
Brgy.
3 √ √ √ √ √ √

Brgy. √ √ √ √
4 √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Brgy. √ √ √ √
5 √ √ √
Brgy.
6
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters

2
2
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters

This step takes off from the gathering of climate, climate

change, hazard and disaster information (Step 1)
• Rough mapping of potential and existing impacts using Impact Chain
Diagrams or tables (usually per ecosystem/landscape, sector or
system of interests);

• Determine climate change stimuli or hazards which will affect key sectors
so it can be studied further in the DRA or CCVA;

2
3
Sample summary of climate change impacts using the 2
4
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters

Indirect
Impact
Direct
Impact

Climate
Stimulus Indirect
Impact
Direct
Impact

Indirect
Impact

Source: Adopted from Climate Impacts: Global and Regional Adaptation

Support Platform

Impacts refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physical events,
of disasters, and of climate change – IPCC
2
5
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts
of climate change and disasters
Sample Impact Chain
(Agriculture)

2
6
Step 3. Exposure Database
Development

2
7
Exposure Database POPULATION

provides baseline
information pertaining to URBAN USE
the elements
Elements at risk.
at risk refer to
AREAS

population, assets, NATURAL-

RESOURCE
structure, economic BASED
PRODUCTION
activities and AREAS

environmental resources LIFELINE

which are located in areas UTILITIES

exposed to potential
impacts of climate change CRITICAL
POINT
and damaging hazard FACILITIE
S
Step 3. Exposure Database
Development
Natural
Resource based Critical
Populatio Urban Areas Production Lifeline Utilities Point
n Areas Facilities

• People • Residential • Crop Production Ae

ras • Transportation • Educational Facilities
• Commercial • Forest • Communicatio • Health facilities
• Industrial Production/ n • Social Welfare
• Tourism Protection Areas • Power related facilities
• Cemeteries • Fishery areas • Water • Governance
• Parks and Open • Water related
Spaces point facilities
• Other unique urban • Communication
uses point facilities
• Power related point
facilities
• Bridge
s
• Househol • Existin lan • Existing • Road maps
d maps g use d land use • Infrastructur
• Residenti map areas,
map (Agri e
a nd
utilities map • Infrastructur
al land forest
use plantation • Waterlines e and
areas) • Power utilities
lines map
29
Exposure maps
Exposure
maps
Sample CBMS
Populatio
n
SHAPEFILES Attributes
NEEDED
Household Control  Type of Housing Unit
(GPS Survey)
Points  Age
 Barangay  Disability status
Boundary
 Access to early warning system
 Informal settlers
 Awareness to hazard impact and climate
change
 Employment Status
 Income status (Poverty Threshold)
 Educational Attainment
 Literacy Status
 Access to Financial Assistance
 Access to Information
 Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or
relocate
 Government Investments
 Urban Use
Area
SHAPEFILES ATTRIBUTES
NEEDED
 Updated  Urban Land Use Category (Residential,
commercial,

Existing
industrial)
Land Uses
 Average construction/replacement cost per square meter
 Barang
 Building condition
ay
 Wall construction materials
Bounda
 Date of Construction
ry
 Structure employing hazard mitigation design
 Local awareness to climate change
 Area coverage to infrastructure related mitigating measures
 Government Regulations
 Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
 Government Investments
 Insurance Coverage
 Available Alternative Sites
Natural resource-based production
areas
SHAPEFILES ATTRIBUTES
NEEDED  Classification
 Existing Land Use  Variety Produced
 SAFDZ  Annual Production/ha
 Barangay  Replacement Cost
Boundary
 No. of dependent
farmers
Critical point
facilities
SHAPEFILES NEEDED ATTRIBUTE
 Control Points of Social S Wall construction materials
Facilities (School, Evacuation
 Building Condition
Center,
Multipurpose Hall,  Structure employing
Municipal Gym, RHU, hazard mitigation
Hospitals, water design
related facility, airport,  Date of Construction
seaport, barangay hall)
 Government Regulation on
 Barangay Boundary
hazard mitigation and/or
structural
design
 Access to infrastructure
related mitigating measure
Lifeline
Utilities
SHAPEFILES ATTRIBUTE
NEEDED S
 Classification
 Road Network  Length/Distance
System
 Construction/replacement
 Drainage System cost
 Bridges  Construction materials used
 Ormeco Pole  Condition
 Communication  Structure employing
Tower hazard mitigation
 Water Pipeline design
 Barangay Boundary
Step 3. Exposure Database
Development

3
8
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)

Outputs
• Risk scores and maps

3
9
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)

4
0
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)
CONSEQUENCE
ANALYSIS

4
1
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)
RISK ESTIMATION
Risk is operationalized using the
function:

Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x

Severity of Consequence

4
2
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)

Bonbon

Poblacion

barra
Taboc

Igpit
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK
MAPS

Risks to
Ground
Shaking
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK
MAPS

Flood
Risks
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
(CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK
MAPS
Step 5. Summarize Findings

Figure 3.6.1. Detailing of decision areas. Identification of major decision areas (urban use areas)
using the Identified flood risk decision areas (right) and Sea Level Rise vulnerability decision
areas
(left). Indicative boundary of two major decision areas in Barangay Igpiit highlighted in green.
Step 5. Summarize Findings
Ta b l e 3.6.1 S a m p l e I s s u e s M a t r i x U r b a n
Use Areas
A B C D E
Decision
Description Problems/Hazards Impacts/Implications Po licy I n t e r v e n t i o n s
Area/s
Igpit - Area located Areas prone to • Severe potential • Relocation of informal settler families,
Informal at the mouth riverine and coastal damages to employ managed retreat or incremental
settler of the fl ooding, potential residential relocation;
areas Bungcalalan area submersion to structures due to • Establishment of early warning systems
( M DA- 1 ) River adjacent due to sea level rise floods. and formulation of fl ood contingency
to the in the long term. • Potential plans to minimize potential injuries
Macalajar Bay Changes in tidal submersion of and casualties during the
patterns may settlements due to implementation of relocation;
impact storm sea level rise in the • Identification of additional 9.29 hectares
surge patterns long term. of residential to accommodate
specifically wave • Potential isolation potentially affected families and
heights and inland of communities, provision of comprehensive housing
inundation. injuries and program for affected families especially
casualties during the informal settlers;
Note: Risks to other •
hazards can be
fl oods and, storm Designating areas for wetland and
incorporated to describe surges; mangrove restoration and serve as part
the area for a more • Establishment of of the eco- tourism network;
comprehensive a n d •
multi- hazard approach
sea walls and N e w transportation systems will not
in identifying policy mitigation be pursued in the area to
interventions/ measures to discourage future settlement
recommendations
retain current land growth;
uses will be costly,
costs can not be
shouldered by
affected families
and the LGU;
• Future uncontrolled
Mainstreaming Framework of
CDRA into CLUP 12- step
process
 Entry points of CCA-DRR into the 12-step
• Incorporate the
process • Include local • Fine tuning Vision descriptors
and success indicators based
• Enhanced understanding of
climate and disaster risks
• Specific targets/success
indicators to address current
• Incorporate climate change
adaptation and disaster risk
conduct of the CDRA stakeholders and on the relevant findings from affecting the locality risks reduction concerns in evaluating
development thrust and spatial
in the work and representatives from the CDRA • Priority Decision Areas based on • Goals, objectives and success
strategy options
risk evaluation indicators related to future
financial plan the hazard mapping • Policy Interventions/Options planned disaster risk reduction • Ensuring selected dev’t thrust and
and climate change adaptation spatial strategies account for the
agencies who will with emphasis on Risk
future climate change scenario
Management Options
• Organize key participate and assist • Adjusted land demand to account
and its possible impacts to the
severity and frequency of natural
sectoral in the CDRA for backlogs due to risks and hazards
vulnerabilities
representatives • Analysis of land supply and
suitability based climate change
who will and possible impacts on the
participate in the severity and frequency of natural
hazards
CDRA
STEP STEP Step Step Step Step
1 2 3 4 5 6
Organiz Identifyin Set Analyze Set the Goals Establish
Development
e g the the and Thrust and Spatial
Stakehold Visio Situatio Objectives Strategies
ers n n

STEP STEP Step Step Step Step

12 11 10 9 8 7
Monitor and Implement Review, A d o p t and Conduct Drafting the Prepare the Land
Evaluate the the CLUP Approve the CLUP Zoning Use Plan
and ZO
Public
CLUP and ZO and ZO Hearing Ordinance

• Identification of risk • Strengthen the support • Ensure identified risk • Consultation with stakeholders • Establishing hazard overlay • Climate and disaster risk
reduction and climate institutional structures, systems management options to on the acceptability of zones and priority risk sensitive land use
change adaptation and procedures for effectively address current and proposed risk management management zones/ districts allocation/spatial location.
enforcement and monitoring prevent future risks are options • Zoning regulations to reduce • Applying risk reduction
monitoring parameters and
• Program and project translated in the CLUP and ZO; risks by applying risk reduction approaches (risk avoidance,
procedures
assessment, prioritization • Inviting representatives from approaches such as density mitigation, transfer and
• PPAs impact monitoring
and development agencies involved in DRR-CCA control, hazard resistant retention) in designing the land
and evaluation (i.e. hazard mapping agencies, building design standards, site use scheme and land use policy
• Budgetary
support/requirements Provincial DRRMO, Provincial development standards, and development
CCO) during the review and additional development • Menu of programs and projects
• Information, Education
approval process requirements for disaster risk reduction; and
and Communication
• Consultation with hazard climate change adaptation
Campaign
experts and stakeholders in
• Interface with other local level
the identification of zoning
plans to implement DRR-CCA
regulations
agenda
Referenc
es
- CLUP Guidebooks 2013-2014

- Supplemental Guidelines on
Mainstreaming CCA-DRR into the
CLUP
- GIS Guidebook: A Guide
to Data Management
- Climate Change in the
Philippines, PAGASA
- “We Know Enough About Climate
Change” GIZ
- https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/9/120.9944/16.6182/?
Thank
you!