Lecture 4
Hypothesis tests about a population
proportion: large samples
The test statistic to test a proportion is
pˆ p pq
z where pˆ
pˆ n
The value of p that is used in this formula is the
one from the null hypothesis. The value of q is
equal to 1-p.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 9-9
According to a Nationwide Mutual Insurance
Company Driving While Distracted Survey
conducted in 2008, 81% of the drivers
interviewed said that they have talked on their
cell phones while driving (The New York Times,
July 19, 2009). The survey included drivers
aged 16 to 61 years selected from 48 states.
Assume that this result holds true for the 2008
population of all such drivers in the United
States. In a recent random sample of 1600
drivers aged 16 to 61 years selected from the
United States, 83% said that they have talked
on their cell phones while driving.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 9-9
Find the p-value to test the hypothesis that the
current percentage of such drivers who have
talked on their cell phones while driving is
different from 81%. What is your conclusion if
the significance level is 5%?
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 1: H0 : p = 0.81
H1 : p ≠ 0.81
Step 2: To check whether the sample is
large, we calculate the values of np and nq:
np = 1600(.81) = 1296 > 5
nq = 1600(.19) = 304 > 5
Consequently, we will use the normal
distribution to perform this test.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 3: The ≠ sign in the alternative hypothesis
indicates that the test is two-tailed.
pq (.81)(.19)
pˆ .00980752
n 1600
pˆ p .83 .81
z 2.04
pˆ .00980752
p-value = 2(0.0207) = 0.0414
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
The required p-value
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 4: We can state that for any α greater
than 0.0414 we will reject the null hypothesis.
For our example, α = 0.05, which is greater
than the p-value of 0.0414. As a result, we
reject H0 and conclude that the current
percentage of all U.S. drivers aged 16 to 61
years who have talked on their cell phones
while driving is different from 0.81.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 9-10
When working properly, a machine that is used to
make chips for calculators does not produce
more than 4% defective chips. Whenever the
machine produces more than 4% defective chips,
it needs an adjustment. To check if the machine
is working properly, the quality control
department at the company often takes samples
of chips and inspects them to determine if they
are good or defective.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 9-10
One such random sample of 200 chips taken
recently from the production line contained 12
defective chips. Find the p-value to test the
hypothesis whether or not the machine needs an
adjustment. What would your conclusion be if the
significance level is 2.5%?
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 1: H0: p ≤ .04
H1: p > .04
Step 2: To check whether the sample is
large, we calculate the values of np and nq:
np = 200(.04) = 8 > 5
nq = 200(.96) = 192 > 5
Consequently, we will use the normal
distribution to perform this test.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 3: The > sign in the alternative hypothesis
indicates that the test is right-tailed.
pq (.04)(.96)
pˆ .01385641
n 200
pˆ p .06 .04
z 1.44
pˆ .01385641
p-value = 0.0749
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
The required p-value
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 4: We can state that for any α greater
than 0.0749 we will reject the null hypothesis,
and for any α less than or equal to 0.0749 we
will not reject the null hypothesis. For our
example, α = 0.025, which is less than the p-
value of 0.0749. As a result, we fail to reject H0
and conclude that the machine does not need
an adjustment.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 9-11
Refer to Example 9-9. According to a
Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company Driving
While Distracted Survey conducted in 2008,
81% of the drivers interviewed said that they
have talked on their cell phones while driving
(The New York Times, July 19, 2009). The
survey included drivers aged 16 to 61 years
selected from 48 states. Assume that this
result holds true for the 2008 population of all
such drivers in the United States. In a recent
random sample of 1600 drivers aged 16 to 61
years selected from the United States, 83% said
that they have talked on their cell phones while
driving.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 9-11
Using the 5% significance level, can you
conclude that the current percentage of such
drivers who have talked on their cell phones
while driving is different from 81%.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 1: H0 : p = 0.81
H1 : p ≠ 0.81
Step 2: To check whether the sample is
large, we calculate the values of np and nq:
np = 1600(.81) = 1296 > 5
nq = 1600(.19) = 304 > 5
Consequently, we will use the normal
distribution to perform this test.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 3: The ≠ sign in the alternative hypothesis
indicates that the test is two-tailed. The
significance level is 0.05. Therefore, the total
area of the two rejection regions is 0.05.
Area in each tail = α/2 = 0.05/2 = 0.025
The critical values of z are -1.96 and 1.96.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
The critical values of z
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 4:
pq (.81)(.19)
pˆ .00980752
n 1600
pˆ p .83 .81
z 2.04
pˆ .00980752
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 5: The value of test statistic z = 2.04 falls
in the rejection region. As a result, we reject H0
and conclude that the current percentage of all
U.S. drivers aged 16 to 61 years who have
talked on their cell phones while driving is
different from 0.81.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 9-12
Direct Mailing Company sells computers and
computer parts by mail. The company claims that
at least 90% of all orders are mailed within 72
hours after they are received. The quality control
department at the company often takes samples to
check if this claim is valid. A recently taken sample
of 150 orders showed that 129 of them were
mailed within 72 hours. Do you think the
company’s claim is true? Use a 2.5% significance
level.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 1: H0 : p ≥ 0.90
H1 : p < 0.90
Step 2: To check whether the sample is
large, we calculate the values of np and nq:
np = 150(0.90) = 135 > 5
nq = 150(0.10) = 15 > 5
Consequently, we will use the normal
distribution to perform this test.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 3: Significance level α = 0.025. The < sign
in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the
test is left-tailed, and the rejection region lies in
the left tail.
The critical values of z for 0.025 area in the left
tail is -1.96.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
The critical values of z
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 4:
pq (.90)(.10)
pˆ .02449490
n 150
pˆ p .86 .90
z 1.63
pˆ .02449490
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Solution
Step 5: The observed value of test statistic z = -
1.63 falls in the nonrejection region. Therefore,
we fail to reject H0. Therefore, we do not have
enough evidence to conclude that the
proportion is smaller than 0.90.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
