SPG8013 Learning Unit 5:

Techniques used in the EIA process.

Predictive methods; mapping techniques;
assessing social, fiscal and human health
impacts; risk analysis.
Techniques in EIA

There are a wide range of EIA techniques. Most were

developed during the 1970s in response to NEPA (1969).

In this learning unit you will review some of the common

methods used in EIA, particularly those used for impact
identification and assessment.

There are a range of other techniques (e.g. pollutant assays, health

risk analysis, engineering design, ecological surveys, spatial and
numerical modelling, GIS and remote sensing) which will need to
employed in specific EIAs, but will normally require specialist
sub-contractors and are beyond the scope of the module.

For further information refer to the book Methods of environmental and social impact
assessment (Therivel/Wood 2017) (eBook available under Reading References on
Canvas)
Review:
Human
What is Environmental?

In the context of EIA,

environment refers to the Environment

sum physical, biological and

human environment: Physical Biological
Review:
What is an impact?

Environmental components are subject to natural change over

time. This change may be cyclical or randomly variable, or in
the form of development or degeneration

An impact is a change from the natural 'baseline' state

resulting from a particular activity.

Thus, to predict impacts we must have information on the

baseline trend (over time) in that particular environmental
component. It is not always sufficient to get a ‘snapshot’
survey of the state of the environment immediately prior to
the proposed development.

Note that impacts can be adverse or beneficial.

Choice of Methods for Impact Prediction

Glasson et al (2015)1 note that when choosing amongst the existing wide range of
impact identification methods, the analyst needs to consider more specific aims,
some of which conflict:

• to ensure compliance with regulations;

• to provide a comprehensive coverage of a full range of impacts, including
social, economic and physical;
• to distinguish between positive and negative, large and small, long-term and
short-term, reversible and irreversible impacts;
• to identify secondary, indirect and cumulative impacts as well as direct
impacts;
• to distinguish between significant and insignificant impacts;
• to allow a comparison of alternative development proposals;
• to consider impacts within the constraints of an area’s carrying capacity;
• to incorporate qualitative as well as quantitative information;
• to be easy and economical to use;
• to be unbiased and to give consistent results;
• to be of use in summarizing and presenting impacts in the EIS.

1. See Library Reading List for eBook reference

Types of method

Generally, methods used for environmental assessment

can be divided into two distinct groups:

1) Predictive methods are used during the scoping and

impact identification phase of an EIA.

2) Evaluation methods can be used to assess the

significance of identified impacts.
Commonly used
Predictive methods
These can be subdivided
into five categories:

1. Checklists
2. Matrices
3. Quantitative methods
4. Networks
5. Overlays
Checklists
You have already seen several checklists as part of the EU
screening and scoping methodologies. Their main usefulness is
in ensuring and demonstrating a complete coverage of impacts.

Pros: Cons:
 Comparatively simple to  Open to user bias and
use misuse
 Useful ‘aide memoir’  Poor at assessing project
 Structure the EIA interactions
 Can be used in many  Danger of missing
different situations impacts not previously
 Often mandatory listed
MATRICES

Basic form (e.g. Leopold 1971) allows interaction

between environmental characteristics and project
activities to be determined:
magnitude of
interaction (1-10)

significance of
interaction (1-10)
Application of a simplified Leopold matrix can be
summarized as follows:

- Delimit the area of influence

- Determine the project activities (e.g. dredging, clearing,
construction, etc.) in the area
- For each activity, determine what environmental
characteristics (e.g. fauna, noise, human health, historical
artifacts, etc.) will be affected.
- Determine the magnitude of each activity on each
characteristic on a scale of 1 to 10.
- Determine the importance of each element on a scale of 1
to 10.
- Determine whether the magnitude is positive or negative.
Matrix methods

The original methodology proposed by Leopold (1971)

considers a fractional number for each cell, where the
magnitude is the numerator and the importance
(significance) is the denominator. The sum of results is
indicated in the arithmetic averages. However, it has been
argued that this ‘loses sight’ of individual interactions

Many other matrices have been derived from the Leopold

Matrix. One of the simplest is a 3-point significance scale
(+, ++, +++) which allows the significant interactions to
be easily seen by the reader.
Benefits and drawbacks of matrices

Pros: Cons:
 Identify project  If a scaling system is
interactions used then criteria must be
 Systematic, easily given (duration,
understood method of perceived significance,
identifying impacts etc.)
 Can be a good  Methods must be
presentational tool described (how did you
 Good for comparing arrive at a 9 or 10?)
alternatives  Fail to identify >2 factor
interactions
Quantitative methods

Quantitative methods cover a broad spectrum of

techniques, from mathematical and numerical models to
sophisticated computer models.

Fundamentally, quantitative techniques attempt to

compare impacts by weighting, standardising and
aggregating impacts and producing a relative, composite
index. Despite the appeal of quantitative techniques as
being ‘scientific’ they have many weaknesses such as
their complexity and can be easily manipulated by
changing assumptions underlying the models.
Network methods

Theoretically, these are the most appropriate for the identification

of impact interactions. They attempt to model the complex
relationships in the environment. The simplest form is that of a
flow chart:
More complex networks
Are very time-consuming to develop and require highly specialised
knowledge to accurately create a network for each environment
under consideration:
Flow charts and networks

Pros: Cons:
 Show cause-effect  Very quickly become too
relationships complex to be useable
 Help identify impacts and  Few established methods
‘higher order’ impacts  Complex network
 Look nice analyses require high
level of user inputs and
training
 May be difficult to
interpret
Overlays

Overlays are an extremely useful way of analysing and

representing the scale and site of impacts on different
components of the environment
Overlay maps

Have been in use for a considerable time in environmental

planning, before even EIA was a recognised technique.

By using a series of annotated base maps, each reflecting a

different environmental component of the development, a
composite picture of the sum impacts of the development can
be generated.

The advance of computer graphics and Geographical

Information Systems (GIS) has allowed weightings to be given
to different types of information and more data to be analysed
with this technique.
Overlays

Pros: Cons:
 Identify scope and scale  Can be expensive and
of impacts complex (GIS)
 Effective visual  Can become too complex
interpretation  Quantitative data and
 Show impact interactions variability difficult to
 Can be simple (e.g. describe
laminate overlays) or  ‘Fuzzy’ boundaries are
complex (e.g. GIS) difficult to represent
Evaluation methods
Can be subdivided into two main categories:

1) Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) techniques. CBA techniques

rely on assigning monetary values to resources and calculating
whether the economic gains of a development will outweigh the
economic losses throughout the life span of the
development.

CBA techniques, when used solely for the purpose of EIA, have
a fundamental drawback in that many environmental resources
are intangible and, therefore, cannot be priced in a meaningful
way, for example air quality or the value of endangered species
or landscapes. This factor prevents CBA being used as a
comprehensive tool for impact evaluation in EIA.
Contd.
2) Multi-criteria methods, seek to overcome some of the strictly
monetary deficiencies of CBA by giving weight not only to
tangible resources but also allocating weight to the differing
views and goals from within society at large concerning
environmental change. Scoring systems used in most
multi-criteria analyses are open to subjective interpretation and
manipulation (Bisset 1988).

One example is Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) which

relies not just on the assignment of arbitrary units to value impacts
but attempts to incorporate the values of key interested parties.
Another is the Delphi method which attempts to build the views of
key parties into the evaluation process by the collection of expert
opinion and gaining consensus on the issues being considered.

These techniques have not been widely applied and their use is
beyond the scope of this course.
Analysis of Social, Health and Economic
Impacts

While the need for specialist inputs in assessing

ecological and biophysical baselines and impacts is
widely understood in EIA, socio-economic and helth
aspects are often poorly treated.
The following pages identify some of the issues and
principles associated with identifying and scoping these
types of impact, but specialist teams will usually need to
be contracted to undertake the assessment.
Social impacts

Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is becoming an

increasingly important part of EIA. For certain
projects, impacts on people can be a more
important consideration than biophysical
impacts.

Adverse social impacts can reduce the

intended benefits of a proposal, and can
threaten its viability if they are severe
enough. To predict and mitigate such
impacts, a social impact assessment (SIA) is
required as part of the EIA process, or
sometimes as a parallel, separate review.
Social impacts can be subdivided into:
• Demographic impacts such as changes in population
numbers, population characteristics (e.g. sex ratio, age
structure, migration rate) and resultant demand for social
services (hospital beds, school places, housing etc);
• Cultural resource impacts including changes in
archaeological, historical and cultural features and
environmental features with religious or ritual significance;
and
• Socio-cultural impacts including changes in social
structures, social organizations, social relationships and
accompanying cultural and value systems (e.g. language,
dress, religious beliefs and ritual systems).
SIA methodology
Basically, methods involve estimating the response of people
to predicted impacts and evaluating who gains and who loses
(impact equity).
Sources of SIA information include:
• Data on the proposal
• Experience with similar actions (e.g. other SIA reports)
• Census and vital statistics
• Secondary documents (baseline conditions and trends)
• Survey and field research (including interviews,
meetings and other contact means such as
questionnaires)
Methods commonly used for predicting social
impacts
Trend extrapolations – projecting current trends such as
population change or employment into the future
Population multipliers – predicted change in population
size used to assess change in other variables, such as
employment and demand for housing, infrastructure or
services
Consulting experts – use of expert knowledge such as
researchers, professional consultants, local authorities, or
knowledgeable citizens
Contd.
Methods commonly used for predicting social
impacts (contd.)

Scenarios – exercises to develop the likely, alternative or

preferred future of a community or society. Scenarios can be
used to compare different outcomes (best versus worst case)
Comparative studies – examining how an affected
community has responded to change in the past, or the impact
on other communities that have undergone a similar action

Source: Taylor et al. (1998) Social Assessment. In: Porter A, Fittipaldi J

(eds) Environmental Methods Review: Retooling Impact Assessment for
the New Century (pp.210-218). The Press Club, Fargo, USA.
Basis of good practice in prediction of
social impacts
There are three main principles of good practice in
SIA:

1. Understanding those affected and their likely

responses
2. Comparisons with experience in similar cases
3. Use of appropriate expertise and knowledge base
Impact Equity in SIA
It is also important to ensure that different social groups
and population subgroups (e.g. sex, age, race or ethnic
affiliation, social status, occupation) are equally assessed.
Best practice involves:
• Predicting adverse impacts
• Specifying impacts for each group
• Explaining reasons for differences between groups
• Highlighting impacts on vulnerable groups
• Guarding against representational bias (has your
analysis included all groups equally?)
Human health impacts

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines health as:

'....the extent to which an individual or group is able to
realise aspirations and satisfy needs and .. to change or
cope with the environment.. it is a positive concept
emphasising social and personal resources, as well as
physical capacity'.
It is not just the absence of disease. If we accept this
definition, then the links with social impact assessment
are obvious.
Assessment of health impacts

Is based on an identification of health hazards and risk

attributable to the project. This involves identifying
environmental factors which may cause health impacts
and the individuals or groups that are potentially
threatened by changes in these factors. These changes can
arise from:

• Routine and normal operating discharges

• Habitat alterations leading, for example to increased
disease vectors
• Changes in demography leading to increased exposure
to health risks
• Unexpected conditions or events (an accident)
Assessment of health impacts
The factors or agents, whose nature and behaviour can be
affected by a proposed development can be classed as:
• Chemicals
• Radionuclides
• Organisms
• Physical phenomena (e.g. explosions).
As well as predicting increased health risks, it is essential to
assess the capability of existing health institutions to protect
the individuals or groups from the hazardous agents.
Economic impacts

The magnitude and extent of economic impacts depend on

the following main factors:

• duration of construction and operational periods

• workforce requirements (numbers to be employed during
each phase of the project)
• skill requirements (local availability)
• earnings
• raw material and other input purchases
• capital investment
• outputs
• characteristics of the local economy.
Economic Impacts

Economic impacts of a project are the main cause of social

impacts. Impacts are often centred around employment and
the relative in-migration of workers versus local employment.
Employment opportunities created by a new project can be
divided into four categories:

• construction employment. This includes both employment

related to the construction phase of the project and the
provision of basic infrastructure
• direct employment at the project
• increases in employment, if any, brought about by linkages
between the proposed development and local firms
• possible increases in service sector employment.
Economic impacts

One on the key likely economic impacts are local population

increases and, as a result, stress on local services (such as
health provision) and infrastructure (for example, roads and
sewerage). Key factors determining fiscal impacts include:

• size of investment and workforce requirements

• capacity of existing service delivery and infrastructure
systems
• local/regional tax or other revenue-raising processes
• likely demographic changes arising from project
requirements (these need to be estimated during the
assessment of social impacts).
Risk and Uncertainty

EIA deals with future events and prediction of events whose

likelihood of occurrence is not known precisely or
accurately.

Until recently this issue was largely ignored and EIA

reports used phrases such as 'will' and 'might' to indicate in
a qualitative manner the likelihood or probability of events
occurring. There is mounting pressures to be more precise
in defining these probabilities.
Risk and Uncertainty

Risk assessment is an integral part of EIA and involves an

analysis of hazards (properties or aspect of a development with
a likelihood of causing damage):

• identification of hazards
• identification of initiating events that might lead, via various
pathways or scenarios, to a hazardous event occurring
• quantification of the probabilities accompanying the various
initiating events and the associated consequences of the final
hazardous event
Assigning probability
Even outside formal risk assessment (a specialist process
usually carried out only for significant hazards such as
explosions at a chemical factory) decision-makers and the
public have been seeking more and more information on the
likelihood of certain Impacts occurring.
For example, instead of a statement such as “.…these levels
of effluent release may lead to fish kills” it is possible to be
more specific, “....there is a risk of 0.2 of an anoxic event
leading to fish kills in any year”.
Even if this is not possible, it is important to state whether
likelihoods of events are ‘worst case’ or ‘most likely’, etc.
Summary – Learning Unit 5
You should now be more aware of the common methods
employed in EIA and the terminology used to describe
them. These include:
• Methods for predicting impacts
• Social impact assessment
• Economic impacts
• Risk assessment and uncertainty
You will get the chance to practice some of these methods
in the case study exercises later in the module.