Special Discrete Probability

Distributions
i. Bernoulli Distribution
ii. Binomial Distribution
iii. Poisson Distribution
1.Bernoulli Distribution
Bernoulli
Trial
 Bernoulli Trial
It is that trial which has only two possible outcomes

1. PASS / FAIL 7. IN / OUT

2. SUCCESS / FAILURE 8. HOT / COLD

3. HEADS / TAILS 9. HIGH / LOW

4. MALE / FEMALE 10. GO / NO-GO

5. RIGHT-HANDED / LEFT-HANDED

6. DEFECTIVE / NOT DEFECTIVE

11. A TRUE-FALSE questions can be answered in only two ways, true or false.
12. Say YES or NO
SUCCESS / FAILURE
Many types of probability problems have only two outcomes, or they can
be reduced to two outcomes

i. When a coin is tossed, it can land heads or tails.

vii. Every morning has two choices Continue your Sleep with dreaming.
OR Wake up and chase your dreams.
Other situations can be reduced to two outcomes.,

For example
A multiple-choice question, even though there are four or five
Answer choices, can be classified as correct or Incorrect Situations
like these are called Bernoulli trial
i. A medical treatment can be classified as effective or ineffective,
depending on the results.

ii. A person can be classified as having normal or abnormal blood

pressure, depending on the measure of the blood pressure gauge.
 2. The Binomial Distribution

Binomial Random experiment Distribution

 An experiment can be called a binomial experiment only
when it possesses the following properties.

i. Result of every trial must be independent of the others.

ii. Each trial must result in either a success or a failure

iii. The probability ‘p’ of success must remain constant

from trial to trial.
iv. The number of trials must be a fixed number ‘n’.
i. The trials must be independent, i.e. the outcome of one
trial does not Influence the outcome of another trial
ii. Each trial can have only two outcomes, which will be called
‘success’( S ) and ‘failure’ ( F );
iii. The probability of success, P (S) = p, usually just written as p, is the
same for each trial, thus the probability of failure is P( F ) = q = 1-p ;

iv. There must be a fixed number, n ,of identical repetitions of the

experiment, called trials;
 Binomial distribution Function
The experiment is interested in the number of successes,
represented by the random variable X., out of n trials When the
binomial r.v. X assumes a value x the binomial probability mass
function is given by

 n  x n x n!
P( X = x ) =   p q  p x q n x
 x (n  x ) ! x !

for x = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , …….. n
n = number of trials
x = number success
n – x = number of failure
p = probability of success
q = 1 – p = probability of failure
p+q =1
Example – 1

20 % of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, find the probability

that out of 4 bolts chosen at random 1 bolt will be Defective. Also find
probability distribution table

Probability of defective bolt = 0.20 = p

Probability of non defective 1 - 0.2 = 0.80 = q

Number of Trials : n = 4

Number of defective x = 1

n!
P  X  x = p x q n x
(n  x ) ! x !
4!
P  X 1  = 0.20 1
x 0.80 4 1  0.4096
(4  1) ! 1 !
The probability that 1 of the 4 bolts is 0.4096.
X= Number of defective bolts

X 0 1 2 3 4 Total
P ( X=x) 0.4096 0.4096 0.1536 0.0256 0.0016 1
Example - 2
An oil-drilling venture involves the drilling of six wildcat oil wells in
different parts of the country. Suppose that each drilling will produce
either a dry well or an oil gusher. Assuming that the simple events for
this experiment are equally likely, find the probability that at least one
oil gusher will be discovered.
• Success : well Oil produce
• Failure : well dry
• Probability of Success : p = 0.5
• Probability of Failure : 1 - p = 0.5
• Number of Trials : n = 6
• Number of Successes : x = 1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 and 6

P(X ≥ 1) = P(X = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(X = 3) +

P(X = 4) + (X = 5) + P(X = 6)
P(X ≥ 1) = 0.0937+ 0.2343 + 0.3125 + 0.2343 + 0.0937+ 0.0156
P(X ≥ 1) = 0.9814
Example-3
A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average,
12% of his pistons are rejected because they are either oversize
or undersize. What is the probability that a batch of 10 pistons
will contain.

a. no more than 2 rejects?

b. at least 2 rejects?
c. atmost 4 rejects
d. Find probability distribution table.
Example-1
The probability that a letter will be delivered anywhere in Pakistan in 2
days or less is 0.84. If a college graduate is sending job applications to 5
colleges, and they are all due in 2 days, find the probability that 4 arrive
within 2 days.
Solution
• Success : Letter arrives within 2 days.
• Failure : Letter does not arrive within 2 days.
• Probability of Success : p = 0.84
• Probability of Failure : 1 - p = 0.16
• Number of Trials : n = 5
• Number of Successes : x = 4
  n  x n x n!
P( X = x ) =   p q  p x q n x
 x (n  x ) ! x !

5
P ( X = 4 ) =   0 . 844 x 0.165 4
 4
5!
P ( X 4 )  0.844 x 0.16  0.3983
( 5 4 ) ! 4 !

The probability that 4 of the 5 letters will arrive on time is 0.3983.

 Example – 2
A doctor knows 15% of all her patients are late for their appointments. Given
five
randomly selected patients, what is the approximate probability that exactly
three of them are late for their appointments?
Solution
• Success : Patients are late for their appointments
• Failure : Patients are not late
• Probability of Success : p = 0.15
• Probability of Failure : 1 – 0.15 = 0.85
• Number of Trials : n = 5
• Number of Successes : x = 3

n!
P( X = x ) = p x q n x
(n  x ) ! x !
  5
P( X = 3 ) =   0.153 x 0.855 2
 3
5!
 0.153 x 0.853  0.0207
(5  3 ) ! 3 !

The probability that 3 of the 5 patients late is 0.0207.

Example - 6
Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability that each
egg is broken is 0.35.Find the probability in a random box of
eggs:there are 4 broken eggs

 12 
P( X 4)   0.354 0.65(12 4 ) 495 0.354 0.658
 4
0.235 to 3 significant figures
Mean and Variance Binomial
random variable
 Mean
Expected value of x

Mean = E( X ) = n p
 Variance

Variance = V ( x ) = n p q

30
Consider the random experiment of tossing a fair coin three
times. Let X be the random variable representing the number of
heads that will come out.
a. Construct the probability distribution associated to the given

situation.
b. Compute for the E [ X ] and Var [ X ].

we have 23 = 8 possible outcomes in the sample space.

HHH HHT HTH HTT TTT TTH THT THH

X 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 2

31
Sample Space No of Heads
HHH 3
HHT 2
HTH 2
HTT 1
TTT 0
TTH 1
THT 1
THH 2

32
probability distribution associated to the given situation.

Mean = E( X ) = n p

Mean = E( X ) = 3 x 0.5

Mean = E( X ) = 1.5
Example
20 % of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, find probability
distribution table of 4 defective bolts and Average of defective bolts

Probability of defective bolt = 0.20 = p

Probability of non defective 1 - 0.2 = 0.80 = q

Number of Trials : n = 4

Number of defective x = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4
n!
P  X  x = p x q n x
(n  x ) ! x !
X 0 1 2 3 4 Total
P ( X=x) 0.4096 0.4096 0.1536 0.0256 0.0016 1
The probability that a patient recover from a delicate heart is 0.90. What is the
probability that exactly five of the next 7 will patients having this operation
survive? *(0.124)
An insurance salesman sells policies to 5 men, all of identical age and in good
health. According to the actuarial tables, the probability that a man of this
particular age will be alive 30 years hence is 2/3. find the probability that in 30
years
i. All men ii. At least 3 men iii. Only two men iv. at most one man will be alive
3. The Poisson distribution
 The Poisson probability Mass function
Poisson distribution is a limiting case of the Binomial
distribution when
i. n  i.e. n 20
ii. p 0 i.e. p 0.05
iii. n p   average of Binomial distribution

Then probability mass function of Poisson is given

 
e  x
p( x)  x  0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ,........
x!
 The following random variables can possess these
properties:

i. The number of telephone calls arriving at a switch board in

a one hour period
ii. The number of customers arriving at a cash desk in a shop
iii. Number of typing errors on a page.
iv. Failure of a machine in one month
EXAMPLE – 1
A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric motor is
defective is 0.01. What is the probability that a sample of 300 electric
motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors?
Solution
The average number of defectives in 300 motors is
 = 0.01 × 300 = 3
The probability of getting 5 defectives is:

 x
e 
P(x)  ; for x  0 ,1 , 2 , 3 , ......
x!
3 5 e 3
P ( x 5 )   0.10082
5!
Example - 3
There were 46 aircraft hijackings worldwide. The mean number of
hijackings per day is estimated as 46/365 = 0.126.there is need to
know about the chances of multiple hijacking in one day. Use
 = 0.126 and find the probability that the number of hijackings ( x )
in one day is 0 , 1
Solution
The Poisson distribution applies because we are dealing with the
occurrences of hijacking event over a time interval of one day. The
probability of 0 and 1 is  x e 
P(x)  ; for x  0 ,1 , 2 , 3 , ......
calculated as x!

e 0.126
 0.126 0
P x  0    0.882
0!

e 0.126
 0.126 1
P  x 1    0.111
1!
Example - 4
The probability that a person dies from a certain infection
is 0.003 .Find the probability that exactly 4 of the next
3000 so infected will die
Solution

 = n x p = 3000 x 0.003 = 9

e 9
 94
P  x 4    0.0337
4!
A truck driver has on average one flat tire every 2000 miles. Find the probability
of each of the following:
a.exactly 2 flat tires on a 2000 mile trip
b.exactly 2 flat tires on a 4000 mile trip
c.more than 2 flat tires on a 4000 mile trip
d.at most 2 flat tires on a 2000 mile trip
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