Chapter 6

Confidence Intervals
§ 6.1
Confidence
Intervals for the
Mean (Large
Samples)
Point Estimate for Population
μ
A point estimate is a single value estimate for a
population parameter. The most unbiased point
x.
estimate of the population mean, , is the sample
mean,
Example:
A random sample of 32 textbook prices (rounded to the nearest
dollar) is taken from a local college bookstore. Find a point
estimate for the population mean, .
34 34 38 45 45 45 45 54
56 65 65 66 67 67 68 74 x 74.22
79 86 87 87 87 88 90 90
94 95 96 98 98 101 110 121

The point estimate for the population mean of

textbooks in the bookstore is $74.22.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 3
 Interval Estimate
An interval estimate is an interval, or range of
values, used to estimate a population parameter.

Point estimate
for textbooks
•
74.22

interval estimate

How confident do we want to be that the interval

estimate contains the population mean, μ?

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 4

 Level of Confidence
The level of confidence c is the probability that the
interval estimate contains the population parameter.

c is the area beneath

c the normal curve
between the critical
values.
1 1
(1 – c) (1 – c)
2 2
z
zc z=0 zc
Use the Standard
Critical Normal Table to find
values the corresponding z-
The remaining area in the tails is scores.
1–c.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 5
 Common Levels of
Confidence
If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we
are 90% confident that the interval contains the
population mean, μ.
0.90

0.05 0.05

z
zc =  1.645
zc z = 0 zc = z1.645
c

The corresponding z-scores are ± 1.645.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 6

 Common Levels of
Confidence
If the level of confidence is 95%, this means that we
are 95% confident that the interval contains the
population mean, μ.
0.95

0.025 0.025

z
zc =  z1.96
c
z = 0 zc =zc1.96

The corresponding z-scores are ± 1.96.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 7

 Common Levels of
Confidence
If the level of confidence is 99%, this means that we
are 99% confident that the interval contains the
population mean, μ.
0.99

0.005 0.005

z
zc =  2.575
zc z = 0 zc = z2.575
c

The corresponding z-scores are ± 2.575.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 8

 Margin of Error
The difference between the point estimate and the
actual population parameter value is called the
sampling error.
When μ is estimated, the sampling error is the
x
difference μ – . Since μ is usually unknown, the
maximum value for the error can be calculated using
the level of confidence.
Given a level of confidence, the margin of error
(sometimes called the maximum error of estimate or
error tolerance) E is the greatest possible distance
between the point estimate and the value of the
parameter σ
E itzcis
σxestimating.
zc
n When n  30, the sample
standard deviation, s, can be
used for .
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 9
 Margin of Error
Example:
A random sample of 32 textbook prices is taken from a
local college bookstore. The mean of the sample x is
= 74.22, and the sample standard deviation is s =
23.44.
Use a 95% confidence level and find the margin of
error for the mean price of all textbooks in the
bookstore. σ 23.44 Since n  30, s can be
E zc 1.96  substituted for σ.
n 32
8.12

We are 95% confident that the margin of error for the

population mean (all the textbooks in the bookstore)
is about $8.12.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 10
 Confidence Intervals for μ
A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ is
x E   xE
The probability that the confidence interval contains μ
is c.

Example:
A random sample of 32 textbook prices is taken from
x
a local college bookstore. The mean of the sample is
= 74.22, the sample standard deviation is s =
23.44, and the margin of error is E = 8.12.
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean
price of all textbooks in the bookstore.
Continued.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 11
 Confidence Intervals for μ
Example continued:
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean
price of all textbooks in the bookstore.
x =74.22 s = 23.44 E = 8.12
Left endpoint = ? Right endpoint = ?

• •
x =74.22 •
x  E 74.22  8.12 x  E 74.22  8.12
= 66.1 = 82.34

With 95% confidence we can say that the cost for all
textbooks in the bookstore is between $66.10 and
$82.34.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 12
Finding Confidence Intervals
for μ
Finding a Confidence Interval for a Population
Mean (n  30 or σ known with a normally
distributed
In Words population) In Symbols
1. Find the sample statistics n and
x. x
x
n
2. Specify , if known. Otherwise, if n  (x  x)2
30, find the sample standard deviation s
n 1
s and use it as an estimate for .
Use the Standard
3. Find the critical value zc that
Normal Table.
corresponds to the given level of
σ
confidence. E zc
n
4. Find the margin of error E. L eft endpoint: x  E
Right endpoint: x  E
5. Find the left and right endpoints I nterval: x  E    x  E
and form Larson
the confidence
& Farber, Elementaryinterval.
Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 13
Confidence Intervals for μ (
Known)
Example:
A random sample of 25 students had a grade point
average with a mean of 2.86. Past studies have
shown that the standard deviation is 0.15 and the
population is normally distributed.
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the
population mean grade point average.
n = 25 x =2.86  = 0.15
σ 0.15
zc = 1.645 E zc 1.645  0.05
n 25
x  E 2.86±0.05 2.81 < μ < 2.91
With 90% confidence we can say that the mean grade point
average for all students in the population is between 2.81
and 2.91. Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e
14
 Sample Size
Given a c-confidence level and a maximum error of
estimate, E, the minimum sample size n, needed to
estimate , the population mean, is
2
 zc 
n   .
 E 
If  is unknown, you can estimate it using s provided
you have a preliminary sample with at least 30
members.
Example:
You want to estimate the mean price of all the
textbooks in the college bookstore. How many books
must be included in your sample if you want to be 99%
confident that the sample mean is within $5 of the Continued.
population mean?
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 15
 Sample Size
Example continued:
You want to estimate the mean price of all the
textbooks in the college bookstore. How many books
must be included in your sample if you want to be 99%
confident that the sample mean is within $5 of the
population mean?
x =74.22   s = 23.44 zc = 2.575
2 2
 zc   2.575 23.44 
n    
 E   5 
145.7 (Always round up.)

You should include at least 146 books in your sample.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 16

§ 6.2
Confidence
Intervals for the
Mean (Small
Samples)
 The t-Distribution
When a sample size is less than 30, and the random
variable x is approximately normally distributed, it follow a
t-distribution.
x μ
t
s
n
Properties of the t-distribution
1. The t-distribution is bell shaped and symmetric about the
mean.
2. The t-distribution is a family of curves, each determined by a
parameter called the degrees of freedom. The degrees of x
freedom are the number of free choices left after a sample
statistic such as is calculated. When you use a t-distribution
to estimate a population mean, the degrees of freedom are
equal to one less than the sample size.
d.f. = n – 1 Degrees of freedom Continued
.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 18
 The t-Distribution
3. The total area under a t-curve is 1 or 100%.
4. The mean, median, and mode of the t-distribution are equal to
zero.
5. As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution
approaches the normal distribution. After 30 d.f., the t-
distribution is very close to the standard normal z-distribution.

The tails in the t-distribution

are “thicker” than those in
the standard normal
d.f. = 2 distribution.
d.f. = t
5 0
Standard
normal curve

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 19

 Critical Values of t
Example:
Find the critical value tc for a 95% confidence
when the sample size is 5.
Appendix B: Table 5: t-Distribution
Level of
confidence
,c 0.50 0.80 0.90 0.95 0.98
One tail,  0.25 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01
d.f Two tails, 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02
. 
1 1.000 3.078 6.314 12.70 31.82
6 1
2 .816 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965
d.f. =3 n – 1 = 5 – 1 =.765 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541
4
4
c = 0.95 tc =
.7412.776
1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747
5 .727 1.476 2.015 2.571 Continued
3.365
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e
. 20
 Critical Values of t
Example continued:
Find the critical value tc for a 95% confidence
when the sample size is 5.
95% of the area under the t-distribution curve with
4 degrees of freedom lies between t = ±2.776.

c = 0.95

t
tc =  2.776 tc =
2.776

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 21

 Confidence Intervals and t-
Distributions
Constructing a Confidence Interval for the Mean:
t-Distribution
In Words In Symbols
x,
1. Identify the sample statistics n, x
x (x  x)2
n s
and s. n 1

2. Identify the degrees of d.f. = n – 1

freedom, the level of
confidence c, and the critical
value tc. s
E tc
n
3. Find the margin of error E.
L eft endpoint: x  E
4. Find the left and right Right endpoint: x  E
endpoints and form the I nterval: x  E    x  E
confidence interval.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 22
 Constructing a Confidence
Interval
Example:
In a random sample of 20 customers at a local fast
food restaurant, the mean waiting time to order is 95
seconds, and the standard deviation is 21 seconds.
Assume the wait times are normally distributed and
construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean wait
ntime
= 20of allx customers.
95 s = 21
s 21 8.1
d.f. = 19 tc = 1.729 E tc 1.729 
n 20
x E =95±8.1 86.9 < μ < 103.1

We are 90% confident that the mean wait time for all
customers is between 86.9 and 103.1 seconds.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 23
 Normal or t-Distribution?
Use the normal distribution with
σ
Is n  30? Yes E zc .
n
No If  is unknown, use s instead.

Is the population normally,

You cannot use the normal
or approximately normally, No
distribution or the t-distribution.
distributed?

Yes
Use the normal distribution with
Is  known? Yes σ
E zc .
n
No

Use the t-distribution with

s
E tc
n
and n – 1 degrees of
freedom.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 24
 Normal or t-Distribution?
Example:
Determine whether to use the normal distribution, the
t-distribution, or neither.
a.) n = 50, the distribution is skewed, s = 2.5
The normal distribution would be used because the
sample size is 50.
b.) n = 25, the distribution is skewed, s = 52.9
Neither distribution would be used because n < 30
and the distribution is skewed.
c.) n = 25, the distribution is normal,  = 4.12
The normal distribution would be used because
although n < 30, the population standard deviation
is known.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 25
§ 6.3
Confidence
Intervals for
Population
Proportions
Point Estimate for Population
p
The probability of success in a single trial of a
binomial experiment is p. This probability is a
population proportion.
The point estimate for p, the population proportion of
successes, is given by the proportion of successes in
a sample and is denoted by
x
pˆ 
n
where x is the number of successes in the sample
and n is the number in the sample. The point
qˆ
estimate for the proportion ofp̂.failures is =p̂1 – qˆ
The symbols and are read as “p hat” and “q
hat.”
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 27
 Point Estimate for
Population p
Example:
In a survey of 1250 US adults, 450 of them said that their favorite
sport to watch is baseball. Find a point estimate for the population
proportion of US adults who say their favorite sport to watch is
baseball.
n = 1250 x = 450

x 450
pˆ   0.36
n 1250

The point estimate for the proportion of US adults

who say baseball is their favorite sport to watch is
0.36, or 36%.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 28

 Confidence Intervals for p
A c-confidence interval for the population proportion
p is pˆ  E  p  pˆ  E

where pq
ˆ ˆ.
E zc
n

The probability that the confidence interval contains p

Example:
is c.
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the proportion
of US adults who say baseball is their favorite sport to
watch.
n = 1250 x = 450 p̂ 0.36
Continued.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 29
 Confidence Intervals for p
Example continued:
p̂ 0.36 pq
ˆˆ
n = 1250 x = 450 E zc
n
(0.36)(0.64) 0.022
qˆ 0.64 1.645
1250

Left endpoint = ? Right endpoint = ?

• p̂ •
0.36 •
p̂  E 0.36  0.022 p̂  E 0.36  0.022
0.338 0.382
With 90% confidence we can say that the proportion
of all US adults who say baseball is their favorite
sport to watch is between 33.8% and 38.2%.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 30
Finding Confidence Intervals
for p
Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion
In Words In Symbols
1. Identify the sample statistics n and
x. x
p̂. pˆ 
n
2. Find the point estimate npˆ 5, nqˆ 5
3. Verify that the sampling distribution
can be approximated by the normal
distribution. Use the Standard
4. Find the critical value zc that Normal Table.
corresponds to the given level of
confidence. pq
ˆˆ
E zc
n
5. Find the margin of error E. Left endpoint:p̂  E
6. Find the left and right endpoints and Right endpoint:p̂  E
Interval:pˆ  E  p  pˆ  E
form the confidence interval.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 31
 Sample Size
Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error, E,
the minimum sample size n, needed to estimate p is
2
 zc 
ˆˆ  .
n  pq
E
This formula assumes you have an estimate p̂for qˆand
.
pˆ 0.5 qˆ 0.5.
If not, use and
Example:
You wish to find out, with 95% confidence and within
2% of the true population, the proportion of US adults
who say that baseball is their favorite sport to watch.
Continued.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 32
 Sample Size
Example continued:
You wish to find out, with 95% confidence and within
2% of the true population, the proportion of US adults
who say that baseball is their favorite sport to watch.
n = 1250 x = 450 p̂ 0.36
2 2
z  1.96 
ˆ ˆ  c  (0.36)(0.64) 
n  pq 
E  0.02 
2212.8 (Always round up.)

You should sample at least 2213 adults to be 95%

confident.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 33
§ 6.4
Confidence
Intervals for
Variance and
Standard
Deviation
 The Chi-Square
Distribution
The point estimate for 2 is s2, and the point
estimate for  is s. s2 is the most unbiased estimate
for 2.
You can use the chi-square distribution to construct a
confidence interval for the variance and standard
deviation.

If the random variable x has a normal distribution,

then the distribution of

2 (n  1)s 2
 
σ2
forms a chi-square distribution for samples of any
size n > 1.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 35
 The Chi-Square
Distribution
Four properties of the chi-square distribution are as
follows.
1. All chi-square values χ2 are greater than or equal to
zero.
2. The chi-square distribution is a family of curves, each
determined by the degrees of freedom. To form a
confidence interval for 2, use the χ2-distribution with
degrees of freedom. To form a confidence interval for
2, use the χ2-distribution with degrees of freedom
equal to one less than the sample size.
3. The area under each curve of the chi-square
distribution equals one.
4. Find the critical value zc that corresponds to the given
level of confidence.
5. Chi-squareLarson
distributions are positively skewed.
& Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 36
 Critical Values for X2
There are two critical values for each level of
confidence. The value χ2R represents the right-tail
critical value and χ2L represents the left-tail critical
value.

1 c
1 1 2c 1 2c
2
X2 X2
X2
R X 2
L

Area to the right of X2R Area to the right of

X2L

1 c c
The area between the left and
2 1 c right critical values is c.
2
X2
X 2
L X2
R

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 37

 Critical Values for X2
Example:
Find the critical values χ2R and χ2L for an 80%
confidence when the sample size is 18.

Because the sample size is 18, there are

d.f. = n – 1 = 18 – 1 = 17 degrees of freedom,

Area to the right of χ2R = 1  c 1  0.8 0.1

2 2

Area to the right of χ2L = 1  c 1  0.8 0.9

2 2

Use the Chi-square distribution table to find the

critical values. Continued
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e
. 38
 Critical Values for X2
Example continued:
Appendix B: Table 6: χ2-Distribution
Degrees
of 
freedom 0.995 0.99 0.97 0.95
0.90 0.10 0.05
5
1 - - 0.001 0.004 0.016 2.706 3.841
2 0.010 0.020 0.051 0.103 0.211 4.605 5.991
3 0.072 0.115 0.216 0.352 0.584 6.251 7.815
16 5.142 5.812 6.908 7.962 9.312 23.54 26.29
2 6
17 5.697 6.408 7.564 8.672 10.08 24.76 27.58
5 9 7
χ2R =1824.7696.265 7.015 8.231 9.390 10.86 25.98 28.86
5 9 9
χ2L = 10.085
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 39
 Confidence Intervals for  2

and 
A c-confidence interval for a population variance and
standard deviation is as follows.

Confidence Interval for 2:

(n  1)s 2 2 (n  1)s 2
2
σ 
XR X L2

Confidence Interval for :

(n  1)s 2 (n  1)s 2
2
σ 
XR X L2

The probability that the confidence intervals

contain 2 or  is c.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 40

 Confidence Intervals for  2

and 
Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Variance and
a Standard Deviation
In Words In Symbols
1. Verify that the population has a
normal distribution.
2. Identify the sample statistic n d.f. = n  1
and the degrees of freedom.
3. Find the point estimate s . 2 2 (x  x )2
s 
n 1
4. Find the critical value χ2R and χ2L Use Table 6 in
that correspond to the given Appendix B.
level of confidence.

Continued
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e
. 41
 Confidence Intervals for  2

and 
Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Variance and
a Standard Deviation
In Words In Symbols
5. Find the left and right (n  1)s 2 2 (n  1)s 2
σ 
endpoints and form the XR2
X L2
confidence interval.
(n  1)s 2 (n  1)s 2
6. Find the confidence interval for 2
σ 
XR X L2
the population standard
deviation by taking the square
root of each endpoint.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 42

 Constructing a Confidence
Interval
Example:
You randomly select and weigh 41 samples of 16-ounce bags of
potato chips. The sample standard deviation is 0.05 ounce.
Assuming the weights are normally distributed, construct a 90%
confidence interval for the population standard deviation.
d.f. = n – 1 = 41 – 1 = 40 degrees of freedom,

Area to the right of χ2R =1  c 1  0.9 0.05

2 2
Area to the right of χ2L =1  c 1  0.9 0.95
2 2
The critical values are χ2R = 55.758 and χ2L = 26.509.
Continued
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e
. 43
 Constructing a Confidence
Interval
Example continued:
χ2L = 26.509
χ2R = 55.758
Left endpoint = ? Right endpoint = ?

• •
(n  1)s 2 (41  1)(0.05)2 (n  1)s 2 (41  1)(0.05)2
 
 R2 55.758  L2 26.509
0.04 0.06
0.04  σ  0.06

With 90% confidence we can say that the population

standard deviation is between 0.04 and 0.06 ounces.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 44