Climate Change:

The Current State of Knowledge

Secretariat Presentation of the WTO-UNEP Trade and

Climate Change Report, WTO, Geneva, 16 February 2010
Outline
• Introduction: Greenhouse gases, climate change and
climate change projections
• Climate change impacts: Global, regional and
sectoral dimensions
• Approaches for dealing with climate change:
Mitigation and adaptation:
– Potential
– Practices
– Technologies
– Costs
• Concluding remarks
Introduction

“Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal.”

"Most of the observed increase in global

average temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.“

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

Climate versus weather

• Climate: A statistical description of the mean and

variability of temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.
over a period of time ranging from months to
thousands or millions of years
• Weather: The present condition of the above
elements, typically over periods up to two weeks
• Climate change: A change in the state of the mean
and/or variability of these elements that can be
identified statistically and that persists over a longer
period, typically decades or longer.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
global warming

• Sharp increase in the emissions of GHGs and their

concentration in the earth’s atmosphere since the
onset of industrialisation
• GHGs cause heat from the sun to be retained in the
atmosphere contributing to global warming and CC
• Atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased by 36%
over the past 250 years
• More than 60% of this increase has taken place in
the last 50 years
Current contribution to global warming of
major GHGs

Carbon dioxide, mainly from burning of fossil fules and

deforestation: 77%
Methane, mainly from land-use and agriculture changes:
14%
Nitrous oxide (agriculture), ozone (e.g. vehicles), and
halocarbons and other industrial process gases: 9%
‘Translating’ emissions into warming

• Predictions of future climate change and its likely impacts

are based on projections of greenhouse gas emissions
and climate model estimation of associated impacts
• IPCC scenarios provided in the Special Report on
Emission Scenarios (SRES) in 2000, present most
frequently used baselines for climate change projections:
– Four different ‘families’ of storylines provide a wide range of
possible future emissions up to 2100 that can be used as
baselines for climate modelling and economic analyses of
climate change.
– Each storyline and corresponding scenario has different
assumptions about technologies and energy sources/use,
rate of economic growth, governance structures, etc.
 ‘Translating’ emissions into warming

Scenario Projections:
• Increase in GHG
emissions 25-90% for
2000-2030
• Warming: 0.2° C per
decade up to 2020
• After 2020, temperature
projections increasingly
depend on the specific
scenario
Climate model estimates:
• Global average
temperature rise from 1.4
to 6.4° C between 1990
and 2100
CC is a concentration problem as well as an
emission problem
• Many greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for
very long periods
• Time lag between the moment of emission and the new
equilibrium of the climate system

→ Global warming will continue to affect the

natural systems of the earth for several hundred
years, even if greenhouse gas emissions were
substantially reduced or ceased altogether today

• World Bank (2008) estimate: Global warming

of around 2°C is probably unavoidable by now
• The corresponding best estimate from the
IPCC (2007) is 1.8°C
Increased certainty on the links between
warming and impacts
• Improved analyses of temperature records
• Use of new computer models to estimate variability and
climate system responses to both natural and man-made
causes
• Increased understanding of climate processes enabling
incorporation of more detailed information:
– Sea-ice dynamics
– Ocean heat transport
– Water vapour

→ Greater certainty that the links observed between

warming and its impacts are reliable
Observed and projected climate change
impacts

Global, regional, and sectoral dimensions

Observed temperature changes

• Global average temperatures and the rate of change have

increased over the past 150 years :
– The global average surface temperature increased by about
0.74°C between 1906 and 2005,
– The warming trend per decade has been almost twice as
high for the last 50 years compared to the trend for the past
100 years
– From 1976 to 2007, the rate of temperature change was
three times higher than the rate for the past 100 years
• Measurements from weather balloons and satellites
indicate that warming rates in the atmospheric temperature
are similar to those observed in surface temperature
Model projections of surface warming and
regional differences
Changes in precipitation
Observed changes: Projected changes:
• Significant increases: • Substantial increases in
– Northern Europe annual mean precipitation:
– Northern and central Asia – Most high latitude regions
– Eastern parts of North and – Eastern Africa
South America – Central Asia
• Decreases: • Substantial decreases:
– Parts of southern Asia – The Mediterranean region
– The Mediterranean – The Caribbean region
– The Sahel – Sub-tropical regions
– Southern Africa
Climate variability and extreme events

• Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events

are observed and are projected to increase even with
small temperature increases
• Heavy precipitation events projected to have potential
negative impacts on trade through disruption to
infrastructure and as a result of may not be limited to
direct damage to agricultural outputs
• Climate variability and extreme events exacerbate
the general impacts of climate change in specific
locations at specific points in time
Sea level rise and changes in snow, ice and
frozen ground

• Sea level rise projections vary significantly depending

on climate models and assumptions
• Changes in sea ice may lead to availability of new
shipping routes with significant implications for
transport and exploitation of resources, including
fossil fuels
• Changes in permafrost and increasing ground
instability has implications for transport, industry and
infrastructure