Random Variables
& Probability Distributions
◤
Math & Physics Department SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
Learning Outlines
1. Define what is probability
2. Explore random variables
3. Construct probability distributions
4. Find the probability of a simple event
SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Math & Physics Department
◤ “Take every
chance you
get in life,
because
some things
only happen
ONCE.”
Credit: adventureinyou.com
Discussion Points
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤ Suppose three cell phones are tested at random. We want to find
out the number of defective cell phones that occur. Thus, to each outcome
in the sample space we shall assign a value.
N – not defective
D - defective
Possible Outcomes
NNN NDD
NND DND
NDN DDN
DNN DDD
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
We want to find out the number of defective cell phones that occur.
◤
(Sample Space)
Random Variables
0 – no defective cp
1 – 1 defective cp
2 – 2 defective cp
3 – 3 defective cp
n(S) = 8 events (total number of outcomes in the sample space)
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Definition of Terms
◤
1. Probability – describes the level of certainty; (likelihood, chance or possibility)
- probability (outcome) can be expressed in decimal, fraction
or percentage
Probability Distribution is a table, graph, formula or notation which supplies the
probability of a given outcome’s occurrence.
2. Sample Space (S) – set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
INFINITE Sample Space – if the number in the sample space is not finite
FINITE Sample Space – if the number in the sample space is finite or definite
NULL Sample Space – it has no element in the sample space
3. Event (E) – a subset of the sample space
- set of all expected outcomes from the sample space
SIMPLE Event – an event that contains only one sample point
4. Experiment – simple process of noting an outcome
Outcome – a direct measurement or answer obtained after an experiment
5. n(S) – total number of events in the sample space
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Space and Events
◤
SETS can be described using:
SEMANTIC Form - statement describing the elements of a set
ROSTER Form – listing method
SET BUILDER Notation – rule method
Finite Sample Space Set A is the list of the first six whole numbers .
A = {0,1,2,3,4,5}
A = { k | k is the first six whole numbers }
Infinite Sample Space S = {S1, S2, S3, S4,…, Sn}
Simple Event Set B showing the Phil. National Fish
Null Sample Space N={Ø}
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Random Variables
◤
- a variable determined by chance, denoted by x
- a numerical description of the outcome of a statistical experiment
Discrete random variable – countable possible outcomes
Continuous random variable – take values on a continuous scale
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Probability Distributions of
Discrete Random Variable
◤
Probability Distribution is a table, graph, formula or notation which
supplies the probability of a given outcome’s occurrence.
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Discrete Probability Distributions
◤
- For a discrete random variable,
the discrete probability distribution (probability mass function) consists of
values a random variable can assume. Denoted by P(X).
- This function provides the probability for each value of the random variable.
A probability distribution must satisfy the following conditions:
In Words In Symbols
1. The probability of each value of the discrete
random variable is between 0 and 1, inclusive.
1 – means event is very likely to occur (100%) 0 ≤ P (x) ≤ 1
0 – its not likely to occur (0%)
2. The sum of all the probabilities is equal to ΣP (x) = 1
one.
Constructing a Discrete
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤ Probability Distribution
Guidelines
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible outcomes
x1, x2, … , xn
1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by dividing
its frequency by the sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and that
the sum is 1.
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤
If the sample space contains a finite number of outcomes,
all equally likely to happen, then for any event E
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Examples of
◤
Probability of a
Simple Event
SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Math & Physics Department
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤
Illustration # 1
Tossing of Coins
SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Math & Physics Department
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Tossing a (single) fair coin
◤
What is the probability of getting a head?
Let:
S – sample space
n(S) – total number of outcomes
X – (event) random variable that will come up
P(X) – probability function
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Tossing a (single) fair coin
◤
Construct a probability distribution of getting a head.
Sample Space: S = { tail, head }
n(S) = 2 outcomes
Probability Distribution
(H) (H)
What is the probability of getting a head?
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Tossing of two fair coins
◤
Construct a probability distribution of getting a head.
Sample Space: S = { HH, HT, TH , TT }
Number of Outcomes: n(S) = 22 = 4
What is the probability of getting two heads?
What is the probability of getting a tail?
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Tossing of three fair coins
◤
Construct a probability distribution of getting a tail.
Sample Space: S = { HHH, HHT, THH , THT, TTH, HTT, HTH, TTT }
Number of Outcomes: n(S) = 23 = 8
What is the probability of getting 2 tails?
What is the probability of getting no tail?
What is the probability of getting 3 heads?
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Histogram for the Probability Distribution
◤ of the Discrete Random Variable
Probability P(X)
Number of Tails (X)
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
Review Pascal’s Triangle
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
- use to
◤ find the coefficients of binomial expansion
- widely used in probability theory (probability of heads and tails in a toss)
(a + b)0 = 1
(a + b)1 = a + b
(a + b)2 = a2 + 2ab + b2
(a + b)3 = a3 + 3a2b + 3ab2 + b3
and so on . . .
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
⮚ Two Coins
⮚ One Coin
◤
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
⮚ Three Coins
◤
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
Find the probability of getting
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
TAILS
◤
using 4 fair coins
n(S) = 24 = 16
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Difference between “AT LEAST” and “AT MOST”
◤
“AT LEAST” – the sum of all the probabilities
larger than and including the given probability
example:
What is the probability of getting at least 2 tails?
∑P(X) ≥ 2 tails
“AT MOST” - the sum of all the probabilities less
than and including the given probability
example:
What is the probability of getting at most 3 tails?
∑P(X) ≤ 3 tails
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
Find the probability of getting TAILS using 4 fair coins
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
◤
What is the probability of getting:
a) no tail d) at least 2 tails: ∑P(X) ≥ 2tails
b) 2 tails
e) at most 3 tails: ∑P(X) ≤ 3 tails
c) 1 head
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤ Illustration # 2
Playing Cards
SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Math & Physics Department
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
⮚ Playing Cards
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
Without
◤ replacement, a card is drawn from a well-shuffled
SPADE
pack of 52 cards.
n(S) =
CLUB
What is the probability of getting:
a. Number “5” spade
HEART
b. A “Queen”
DIAMOND
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
⮚ Playing Cards
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
◤
SPADE
c. A “King” of red color
CLUB
d. A Face and a Black Card
HEART
DIAMOND
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤
Illustration # 3
Dice
SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Math & Physics Department
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
⮚ Die
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
◤
Rolling a die once.
n(S) =
What is the probability, P(X) , of getting:
a. “1” as a success (in fraction)
b. “even number” (in percent)
c. not a “5” (in decimal)
d. a number “7”
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
⮚ Dice
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
◤
Rolling 2 dice.
n(S) =
What is the probability, P(X), of getting: (in fraction)
a. “3” as a success
b. Sum of 9
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤
Illustration # 4
Marbles
SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Math & Physics Department
Mr.
Mr.Ron
RonP.
⮚ Marbles
P.Agaloos
Agaloos
◤
A box containing 30 red, 20 blue and 40 green marbles.
n(S) =
Without replacement, what is the probability, P(X), of getting:
a. green
b. a blue or red
c. not a blue
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤
Illustration # 5
Other Examples on Probability
of an Event
SHS STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Math & Physics Department
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
⮚ Conditional Probability
◤
Your aunt has 3 children. What is the probability that they are
all girls?
Note: 2 = genders (Male or a Female)
3 = children
n(S) = 23 = 8 ways
Since the chance of a child being a girl is ½ (one female out of 2 genders)
So, the chance of all three being girls is (1/2) (1/2) (1/2) = 1/8
Alternatively, make a list of all possible outcomes:
{GGG,GGB,GBG,BGG,GBB,BGB,BBG,BBB}.
As each one is equally likely, the chance of GGG is again 1/8.
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
A number from 1 to 10 is selected at
◤
random.
a) Find the probability of choosing multiples of 10.
b) Find the probability of choosing an even number.
c) Find the probability of choosing an odd number.
d) Find the probability of choosing an even number or divisible by 3
Summary / Generalization
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤
What lesson/s can we get from
random variables and probability?
“It’s not about the speed or quickness of
achieving what we want, it’s about the probability of
getting or trying those chances in order your dreams
to be fulfilled.”
In the end, we only regret the chances we
missed!”
E
◤
ASYNCHRONOUS LEARNING
A. QUIZ: Performance Task # 1
Coverage: random variables
B. Do Advance Reading
- Compute the mean, variance and standard deviation of a
discrete probability distribution
- Normal Probability Distribution
- What is Z-score
- How to find the area under the normal curve Prepared by
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Math & Physics Department MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability
END SESSION
Synchronous Learning
◤
Thank you so much.
Keep safe everyone!
◤
Student Copy Password: ron2021b
Prepared by
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Math & Physics Department MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability
