Milton Friedman
Udayan Roy
ECO 54 History of Economic Thought
Milton Friedman (1912-2006)
• A Monetary History of the United
States (1963), with Anna J. Schwartz
• A theory of the consumption
function (1957)
• Selected Bibliography
Milton Friedman 2
Permanent Income Theory of Consumption
• Transitory changes in income do not affect
consumption spending, only permanent
changes do
• This implies a small marginal propensity to
consume and, therefore, a small multiplier.
• This makes Keynesian fiscal policy ineffective
Milton Friedman 3
Money affects output
• Money supply does have a positive effect on
employment and production in the short run
– This is because of “money illusion”.
• Indeed, Friedman argued, the Great
Depression was probably caused by a sharp
reduction in money supply by the US central
bank, the Fed.
• In the long run, however, the quantity of
money affects the price level alone
Milton Friedman 4
Monetary policy
• But there are lags that make monetary policy ineffective.
– Observation lag
– Decision lag
– Effect lag
• Monetary policy should follow simple rules and not try
to adjust to shifting economic situations.
– In particular, if an economy’s GDP normally grows at the rate
of 3.5% per year, then its central bank should increase the
quantity of money at the same rate every year. This will keep
prices stable over the long run.
– Friedman consequently favored the abolition of the Federal
Reserve
Milton Friedman 5
Natural rate of unemployment
• In the long run there is no tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
• Sustained attempts by the government to
keep unemployment below the natural rate
will lead to accelerating inflation
– The argument emphasizes the importance of
inflation expectations
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Flexible Exchange Rates
• Friedman was among those who first realized -
and could explain - why the Bretton Woods
System with relatively fixed rates of exchange
was bound to break down sooner or later.
Milton Friedman 7
Libertarianism
• Vigorous participant in public policy debates
– Had a weekly column in Newsweek, recorded TV
documentary series, wrote popular books on
economic issues
• Legalization of drugs and prostitution
• Volunteer army
• School vouchers
• Abolition of licensing requirements of doctors
• Negative income tax
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Sources
• http
://[Link]/~uroy/eco54/histlist/Friedm
an_M/[Link]
• Chapter X of New Ideas from Dead Economists
by Todd Buchholz
• Chapter 13 of The Ordinary Business of Life by
Roger Backhouse; pages 295-8
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Milton Friedman 10
