Continuous Probability

Distribution
 Continuous Probability
Distribution
O Normal Probability Distribution
O Normal Approximation to
Binomial Distribution
O Normal Approximation to
Poisson Distribution
 Normal Distribution
O Recognize the Normal Probability Distribution
O Define the Normal probability event
O Define the Normal probability with the relevant
parameters.
O Convert Normal distribution to Standard Normal
Distributions
O Equalities and Inequalities in Normal Distribution
O Right-Hand Tail of the distribution
O Use the calculator to find the standardised normal
distribution
 Normal Distribution
O It is NORMAL DISTRIBUTION when
mean, μ and
standard deviation σ or variance σ2,
is given.
 Define Event
O X ≡ Event

NORMA
O Usually refers to the measurement of data L

O Examples of Event:
O Weight of bags 1. Weight of a bag less than
O Length of pencils 3kg
2. Number of bags which
O Time taken to travel
weigh less than 3 kg.
O Diameter of bottles
O Volume in a can of drink

BINOMIAL
 Define Probability

X ~ N ( μ, σ2)

If the mean is 6 and μ = mean If the mean is 6 and

the standard deviation
σ2 : variance the variance is 9
is 2
X ~ N(6, 32)
X ~ N(6, 22)
 Convert Normal to Standard
Normal Distributions
O Normal Distribution  Standard Normal Distributions

O All Normal distribution question can only be solved

when converted to STANDARD NORMAL
Distribution

X  Z
 Convert Normal to Standard
Normal Distributions
O Normal Distribution  Standard Normal Distributions
X ~ N ( μ, σ2)  Z ~ N (0,1)

z
x

X ~ N(6, 22) X ~ N(6, 22)

P(X > 8) P(X > 8) = P(Z > 1)

P(X < 7) P(X < 7) = P(Z < 0.5)
P(4 < X < 8) P(4 < X < 8) = P(-1 < Z < 1)
 For
NORMAL :

Equalities & Inequalities

√ >/<
X >/<

O P (X = a) = 0 ALWAYS!!!

Less than 3
O P (X > a) = P(X > a)
More than 3
At least 3
O P (X < b) = P (X < b) At most 3

O This is because it is Continuous Distribution!

O If questions is X > a  Must use X > a

 For
NORMAL :

Equalities & Inequalities

√ >/<
X >/<

Discrete Continuous
(Binomial & Poisson) (Normal)
Less than 3 X<3 X<3
=X<2
More than 3 X>3 X>3
=X>4
At most 3 X<3 X<3
At least 3 X>3 X>3
Right Hand Tail
O P(Z > a)

O P(Z < a)
= 1 – P(Z > a)

a
Right Hand Tail
O P(a < Z < b)
P(Z > a) – P(Z > b)

O P(Z < a) and P(Z > b)

= 1 – [P(Z > a) ] - P(Z > b)]
 Using Your Calculator !!!
Use the calculator to find the standardised normal distribution
for the right hand tail.

Set to SD Mode  SHIFT 3 3  R (a) =

O P (Z > a) = R(a)
O P (Z < a) = 1 – R(a)
O P (a < Z < b) = R(a) – R(b)

Example:
P (Z > 1.74) = R(1.74) = 0.0409
P (Z < 1.74) = 1 – R(1.74) = 0.9591
P (0.93 < Z < 2.01) = R(0.93) – R(2.01) = 0.1540

NOTE: USE THE Z-SCORE UP TO 2 DECIMAL PLACES ONLY

 Exercise 4.1 – Q1
a. P (Z < 1.74)
b. P (0 < Z < 2.10)
c. P (Z< 0.05)
d. P (Z > 1.91)
e. P (Z > -0.86)
f. P (-2 < Z < 0)
g. P (0.93 < Z < 2.01)
h. P (-2.84 < Z < 0.31)
i. P (-1.80 < Z < -0.21)
 Exercise 4.1 – Q1
a. P (Z < 1.74) = 0.9591
b. P (0 < Z < 2.10) = 0.4821
c. P (Z< 0.05) = 0.5199
d. P (Z > 1.91) = 0.0281
e. P (Z > -0.86) = 0.8051
f. P (-2 < Z < 0) = 0.4773
g. P (0.93 < Z < 2.01) = 0.1540
h. P (-2.84 < Z < 0.31) = 0.6195
i. P (-1.80 < Z < -0.21) = 0.3809
 Example 1
O Hundreds of people were asked to guess the length of a
particular line which is known to be 45mm long.
O There were many guesses from the participants and the
lengths guessed were normally distributed with a mean of
34mm and a standard deviation of 5mm.
O What proportion of people guessed the line was under 45mm
in length?
 Example 1
Step Action
1. Define Event X ≡ Length of line
2. Define Probability X ~ N (34, 52)
3. Normal Probability P(X < 45)
4. Z-score Probability P(Z < 2.2)
5. Use calculator 1 - R(2.2)
= 0.9861

 98.61% of the people guessed that the line was

under 45mm in length
Q1
EXERCISE 4.1 - SOLUTION
a. 0.9591 Q3. Q7
b. 0.4821 a. 0.8413 b. 0.9970 a. 0.7373
c. 0.5199 c. 0.1557 d. 0.3413
d. 0.0281
b. 0.9625
e. 0.8051
Q4
c. 0.9960
f. 0.4773
g. 0.1540
a. 0.9773 b. 0.8186 c.
h. 0.6195
0.0228 Q8
i. 0.3809 The proportion of cups
Q5 which would overflow:
Q2 a . 0.9850 b. 2.62%
j. 0.9738 0.1210 c. 0.0228 d. 0.0150
k. 0.0262
l. 0.3264
Q6 Q9
m. 0.3594
n. 0.3707 a. 50% Only 0.62% of the nails
o. 0.3372 [R(0.42)] b. 24.86% will be greater than 40mm
p. 0.7287 c. 35.51% 97.86% of the nails will not
q. 0.3907 [R(0) – R(1.23)] d. 0.99% be accepted by the nail gun.
r. 0.9500 e. 76.73%
 Exercise 4.1 – Q2
For a standard normal variable Z, find the following
probabilities:
a. P (Z < 1.94) = 0.9738
b. P (Z > 1.94) = 0.0262
c. P (0 < Z < 0.94) = 0.3264
d. P (Z < -0.36) = 0.3594
5  3.9
e. P (Z > 1/3) = 0.3707 [R(0.33)]
2.6
f. P (Z > ) = 0.3372 [R(0.42)]
51  22.8
g. P (-1.1 < Z < 1.1) = 0.7287
23
h. P (0 < Z < ) = 0.3907 [R(0) – R(1.23)]
i. P (-1.96 < Z < 1.96) = 0.9500
 Exercise 4.1 – Q3
A set of test scores is normally distributed with a
mean of 52 and a standard deviation of 12. Find the
probability, correct to 4 decimal places, that a
randomly selected score will be:
a. Less than 64
b. Less than 85
c. Between 64 and 85
d. Between the mean and 64

X ~ N (52 , 122)
 Exercise 4.1 – Q3
A set of test scores is normally distributed with a mean of 52
and a standard deviation of 12. Find the probability, correct
to 4 decimal places, that a randomly selected score will be:
X ≡ Test scores
X ~ N (52 , 122)
a. Less than b. Less than 85 c. Between 64 and d. Between the
64 85 mean and 64
P(X < 64) P(X < 85) P(64 < X < 85) P(52 < X < 64)
= P(Z < 1) = P(Z < 2.75) = P(1 < Z < 2.75) = P(0 < Z < 1)
= 1 – R(1) = 1 – R(2.75) = R(1) – R(2.75) = R(0) – R(1)
= 0.8413 = 0.9970 = 0.1557 = 0.3413

c
 Exercise 4.1 – Q4
The following normal random variable has a mean of 6 and a standard deviation of
0.5. find the probabilities for:
a. P (X < 7)
b. P ( 5.5 < X < 7)
c. P (X > 7)
SOLUTION:
X ~ N (6, 0.52)

P (X < 7) P ( 5.5 < X < 7) P (X > 7)

= P(Z < 2) = P ( -1 < Z < 2) = P (Z > 2)
= 1 – R(2) = R(-1) – R(2) = R(2)
= 0.9773 = 0.8186 = 0.0228
Df
 Exercise 4.1 – Q5
A random variable X has a mean of 6.5 and a variance of 9.
X ~ N(6.5, 32).
SOLUTION:

P (X < 13) P ( X > 10) P (X < 0.5) P (X < 0)

= P(Z < 2.17) = P ( Z > 1.17) = P (Z < -2) = P (Z <-2.17)
= 1 – R(2.17) = R(1.17) = 1 - R(-2) = 1 - R(-2.17)
= 0.9850 = 0.1210 = 0.0228 = 0.0150
Df
 Exercise 4.1 – Q6
The scores on an IQ test have a mean of 100 and a
standard deviation of 15.
 X ~ N (100, 152)
What proportion of scores would you expect to be:
a. Less than 100? = 0.5000 = 50%
b. Between 100 and 110? = 0.2486 = 24.86%
c. Between 95 and 109? = 0.3551 = 35.51%
d. Greater than 135? = 0.0099 = 0.99%
e. Greater than 89? = 0.7673 = 76.73%
 Exercise 4.1 – Q7
The amount of time which a bee spends in contact with the stamens of a
particular species of flower has a normal probability density function.
T ≡ The amount of time which a bee spends in contact with the stamens

The mean is 43 seconds and the standard deviation is 6.24 seconds.

T ~ N (43 , 6.242)

Consider the time T seconds which the bee spends in contact with the stamens.
Find:

P (36 < T < 50) P (30 < T < 56) P (25 < T < 61)
= P(-1.12 < Z < 1.12) = P(-2.08 < Z < 2.08) = P(-2.88 < Z < 2.88)
= R(-1.12) - R(1.12) = R(-2.08) - R(2.08) = R(-2.88) - R(2.88)
a. )
= 0.7373 = 0.9625 = 0.9960
 Exercise 4.1 – Q8
An automatic coffee machine is set so that it delivers 215ml per cup. The
actual quantity of coffee is normally distributed with a mean of 215ml and a
standard deviation of 18ml. The cups have a capacity of 250ml.
What proportion of the cups would overflow?

X ≡ The amount coffee in a cup.

X ~ N (215, 182)

P(Overflow)
P(X > 250)
= P(Z > 1.94)
= 0.0262

The proportion of cups which would overflow: 2.62%

 Exercise 4.1 – Q9
A nail making machine makes ‘40mm’ nails. The lengths of the nails have
a normal distribution with a mean of 39.5mm and a standard deviation of
0.2mm.
a. What proportion of nails would be greater than 40mm in length?

X ≡ The lengths of the nails

X ~ N (39.5, 0.22)

P(X > 40)

= P(Z > 2.5)
= R(2.5)
= 0.0062
Only 0.62% of the nails will be greater than 40mm
 Exercise 4.1 – Q9
A nail gun will only accept nails in the range of 40 ± 0.1 mm.
b. What proportion of nails would not be accepted by the nail gun?

X ≡ The lengths of the nails

X ~ N (39.5, 0.22)

P( accepted)
P( 39.9 < X < 40.1)
= P(2 < Z < 3)
= R(2) – R(3)
= 0.0214

P(Not accepted) = 1 - P( accepted)

= 1 – 0.0214
= 0.9786
97.86% of the nails will not be accepted by the nail gun.
Normal Approximation to Binomial
or Poisson Distribution
LEARNING OUTCOME:
O Recognize as Original Binomial or Poisson Probability
Distribution
O Define the probability as ORIGINAL BINOMIAL / POISSON
with the relevant parameters.
O Recognise the conditions which allow for normal approximation
O Follow the steps:
O Convert to Normal distributions
O Correction for inequalities and boundaries
O Convert to Standardised scores
O Use the calculator to find the probabilities
 Conditions >
Conditions – B  N Conditions – P  N
Original Binomial Q solved using Normal. Original Poisson Q solved using Normal.
Conditions for Approximation
n is large, n > 20 λ is large, n > 10
p is small, p ~ 0.5
np > 5
If the number of probability is greater than 9. If the number of probability is greater than 9.

P(X > 10) use normal to solve. P(X > 10) use normal to solve.
Questions asks to ESTIMATE or Questions asks to ESTIMATE or
APPROXIMATE APPROXIMATE
X ~ B (n, p)  X* ~ N (µ, X ~ Po (λ)  X* ~ N (µ,
σ2 ) σ2 )

µ = np µ=λ
σ = √(npq) σ = √(λ)
 2 steps in Step 1: Step 2:
continuity Simbol Change
corrections > / < to > / < boundary

Continuity Corrections
Binomial or Poisson  Normal < Less than – END - UB
> More than – START - LB
Discrete  Continuous
Discrete Distribution, X Normal Distribution, X*
P (X < 3) P (X* < 3.5)
P (X < 3)  P (X < 2) P (X* < 2.5)
No need
P (X = 3)
CAN USE Discrete

P (5 < X < 8) P (4.5 < X* < 8.5)

P (5 < X < 8)  P (6 < X < 8) P (5.5 < X* < 8.5)
P (5 < X < 8)  P (5 < X < 7) P (4.5 < X* < 7.5)
P (X > 4) P (X* > 3.5)
P (X > 4)  P (X > 5) P (X* > 4.5)
 2 steps in Step 1:
Step 2:
continuity Simbol
Change Boundary
> / < to > / <
corrections

Continuity Corrections
Binomial or Poisson  Normal < Less than – END - UB
> More than – START - LB
Discrete  Continuous
Discrete Distribution, X Normal Distribution, X*
P(at least 6)
P(X > 6) P(X* > 5.5)
P(not more than 7)
P(X < 7) P(X* < 7.5)
P(3 and less)
P(X < 3) P(X* < 3.5)
P(more than 120)
P(X > 121) P(X* > 120.5)
P(not more than 120)
P(X < 120) P(X* < 120.5)
P(at most 6)
P(X < 6) P(X* < 6.5)
P(fewer than 5)
P(X < 4) P(X* < 4.5)
Steps for Normal Approximation to
Binomial / Poisson
Step Action
1 Define event, X
2 Define Binomial / Poisson Probability
3 Find the mean and the standard deviation
4 Redefine the probability as X*  the Normal Distribution
with the relevant parameters.
5 Perform continuity correction
6 Convert to Standardised Normal Distribution
7 Find answer.
 Example 1
O Find the probability of obtaining between 4 and 15 heads inclusive
with 32 tosses of a fair coin,
O a. using the binomial distribution
O b. using the normal approximation to the binomial
distribution
 Example 1 - BINOMIAL
O Find the probability of obtaining between 4 and 15 heads inclusive with 32
tosses of a fair coin,
O a. using the binomial distribution

X ≡ Number of heads
X ~ B (32, 0.5)
P( 4 < X < 15)
= P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) +
P(X = 10) + P(X = 11) + P(X = 12) + P(X = 13) + P(X = 14) + P(X=15)
= 8.3726x10-6 + 4.6887x10-5 + 2.1099x10-4 + 7.8367x10-4 + 2.4490x10-3 +
6.5306x10-3 +0.0150 + 0.0300 + 0.0526 + 0.0809 + 0.1098 + 0.1317
= 0.4300
 x
z
Example 1 - NORMAL 
O Find the probability of obtaining between 4 and 15 heads inclusive
𝜇=𝑛𝑝
with 32 tosses of a fair coin,
O b. using the normal approximation to the binomial σ = √ 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Step distribution
Action

1 Define event, X X ≡ Number of heads

X ≡ Number of heads
2 Define Binomial / Poisson Probability X ~ B (32, 0.5)
X ~ B (32, 0.5)
3 X*Find
~ Nthe mean
(16, and the
2.8284 2 standard deviation
)
=
4
P( X4 
<XX*
< 15) X* ~ N (16, 2.82842)
=P(3.5 < X* < 15.5)
5 Perform continuity correction P( 4 < X < 15)
=P(-4.42 < Z < -0.18) =P(3.5 < X* < 15.5)
6 = R(-4.42)
Z-score – R (-0.18) =P(-4.42 < Z < -0.18)
= 0.4286
7 Find answer. = R(-4.42) – R (-0.18)
= 0.4286
 Example 2
It is known that in a sack of mixed grass seeds 35% are ryegrass. Use
approximation to find the probability that in a sample of 400 seeds, there
are
O a. less than 120 ryegrass seeds
O b. between 120 and 150 ryegrass seeds inclusive
O c. more than 160 ryegrass seeds.
 Example 2
It is known that in a sack of mixed grass seeds 35% are ryegrass. Use
approximation to find the probability that in a sample of 400 seeds, there are
1 O a.
Define event Xless than 120
≡ Number ryegrass
of ryegrass seeds
seeds
O b. between 120 and 150 ryegrass seeds inclusive
2 Define Binomial X ~ B (400, 0.35)
O c.
Probability more than 160 ryegrass seeds.
3 Find the = 140; = 9.5394

4 Redefine the X* ~ N(140, 9.53942)

probability as X*.
less than 120 ryegrass between 120 and 150 more than 160 ryegrass
seeds ryegrass seeds inclusive seeds.
5 Change inequality P(X < 120) P( 120 < X < 150) P(X > 160)
= P(X < 119) = P(X > 161)
6 Perform continuity = P(X* < 119.5) = P(119.5 < X* < 150.5) = P(X* > 160.5)
correction
7 Z-score = P(Z < -2.15) = P(-2.15 < Z < 1.10) = P(Z > 2.15)

8 Find answer. = 1 – R(-2.15) = R(-2.15) – R(1.10) = R(2.15)

= 0.0158 = 0.8486 = 0.0158
 Example 3
O Weather balloons have an 80% chance of being recovered within 3
months of being released. Fifty balloons are released around
Geraldton in June 1997. Estimate the probability that within a three
month period,
a. less than 35 are recovered.
b. At least 42 are recovered
O
Example 3
Weather balloons have an 80% chance of being recovered within 3 months of being
released. Fifty balloons are released around Geraldton in June 1997. Estimate the
probability that within a three month period,

Step Action less than 35 are At least 42 are

recovered. recovered
1 Define event, X X ≡ Number of ballons recovered

2 Define Binomial Probability X ~ B (50, 0.8)

3 Find the mean and the standard np = 40; σ = 2.8284

deviation
4 X  X* X* ~ N(40, 2.82842)

5 Change inequality P(X < 35) P(X > 42)

= P(X < 34)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* < 34.5) = P(X* > 41.5)

7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z < -1.94) = P(Z > 0.53)

Distribution
8 Find answer. = 1 - R(-1.94) = 0.2981
= 0.0262
 Example 4
A random variable X is Poisson distributed with a mean of 42. Use a Normal
approximation to calculate:
X ~ Po (42)
X* ~ N (42, 6.48072)

Step Action
P(X < 50) P(30 ≤ X ≤ 49) P(43 < X < 53)
5 Change inequality P(X < 50) P(30 < X < 49) P(43 < X < 53)
= P(X < 49) = P(44 < X < 52)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* < 49.5) P(29.5 < X* < 49.5) P(43.5 < X* < 52.5)

7 Convert to Standardised = P(Z < 1.16) P(-1.93 < Z < 1.16) P(0.23 < Z < 1.62)
Normal Distribution
8 Find answer. = 1 - R(1.16) = R(-1.93) - R(1.16) = R(0.23) – R(1.62)
= 0.8770 = 0.8502 = 0.3564
 Example 5
An online bookshop is a new internet site. In a 24 hour period the site receives 600
hits on average. Assume that the number of hits per hour is a Poisson Distribution.
What is the probability of receiving less than 20 hits in any hour?

Y ≡ Number of hits per 24 hours

Y ~ Po (600)

X ≡ Number of hits per 1 hour

X ~ Po (25)
X* ~ N (25, 52)

P(X < 20)

= P(X < 19)
= P( X* < 19.5)
= P(Z < -1.1)
= 1 - R(-1.1)
= 0.1357
 Example 6
The mass of coffee powder in a randomly selected jar sold by a certain supermarket may be
taken to have a normal distribution with mean 403g and standard deviation 3g.
i) Find the probability that a randomly selected jar will contain at least 400g of coffee.

Let X = mass of coffee in a randomly selected jar.

X ~ N (403, 32)

400  403
)
3
P (X ≥ 400) = P (Z ≥
= P (Z ≥ –1)
= 0.8413

ii) Find the mass m such that only 3% of jars contain more than m grams of coffee powder.
m  403
P(Z ≥ m) 3= 0.03
m  403
P(Z ≥ ) = 0.03
3
= 0.1881

m = 408.64g
 Solutions for Ex 4.2
1. a. 0.9032 b. 0.0026
2. 0.5203
3. a. 0.0113 b. 0.1441
4. a. 0.0869 b. 0.0858
5. a. 0.0031 b. 0
6. a. 0 b. 0.0002 c. 0.4522
7. a. 0.6103 b. 0.1660 c. 0.0091
 Exercise 4.2 – Q1
O A poll reveals that 40% of the population believe that the Prime Minister is doing a good
job. If 30 people are interviewed, determine the probability that:
 X ≡ Number of people who believe that the PM is doing a good job.
 X ~ B (30, 0.4)
 X* ~ N(12, 2.68332)

Step Action 15 or less believe 20 or more believe

the Prime Minister the Prime Minister is
is doing a good doing a good job
job.
5 Change inequality P(X < 15) P(X > 20)

6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* < 15.5) = P(X* > 19.5)

7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z < 1.30) = P(Z > 2.80

Distribution
8 Find answer. = 1 - R(1.30) = R(2.80)
O c = 0.9032 = 0.0026
 Exercise 4.2 – Q2
O If 50 coins are tossed into the air, what is the probability that 23, 24, 25, 26 or 27 heads are obtained?
 X ≡ Number of heads
 X ~ B (50, 0.5)
 X* ~ N(25, 3.53552)

Use Binomial to solve because although the conditions are

met, the number of probabilities is less than 10.

USING BINOMIAL
O P(23 < X < 27)
O = P(X = 23) + P(X = 24) + P(X = 25) + P(X = 26) + P(X = 27)
O = 0.0960 + 0.1080 + 0.1123 + 0.1080 + 0.0960
O = 0.5203 or 0.5201 (if punch 1 shot)
 Exercise 4.2 – Q3
O During a flu epidemic, a doctor finds that 30% of her patients show symptoms of flu. In one day she
sees 45 patients. Determine the probability that:
O More than 20 patients will show symptoms of flu
O Only 8, 9 or 10 will show symptoms of flu
 X ≡ Number of patients will show symptoms of flu
 X ~ B (45, 0.3)
 X* ~ N(13.5, 3.07412)

Step Action More than 20 patients Only 8, 9 or 10

5 Change inequality P(X > 20) P(8 < X < 10)

= P(X > 21)
Use Binomial to solve
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 20.5) = P(7.5 < X* < 10.5)
because although the
7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > 2.28) conditions
= P(-1.95 are met, the
< Z < -0.98)
Distribution number of probabilities is
8 Find answer. = R(2.28) = R(--1.95less than 10.
) – R(-0.98)
= 0.0113 = 0.1380

USING BINOMIAL
O P(8 < X < 10)
O = P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)
O = 0.0263 + 0.0463 + 0.0714
O = 0.1440
 Exercise 4.2 – Q4
O A fair die is thrown 200 times. Using normal approximation, what is the probability that a
five will turn up

 X ≡ Number of fives
 X ~ B (200, 0.1667)
 X* ~ N(33.3333, 5.27092)

Step Action More than 40 patients times More than 40 but less than 50
O times
5 Change inequality P(X > 40) P(40 < X < 50)
O = P(X > 41) = P(41 < X < 49)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 40.5) = P(40.5 < X* < 49.5)

7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > 1.36) = P(1.36 < Z < 3.07)
Distribution
8 Find answer. = R(1.36) = R(1.36) – R(3.07)
= 0.0869 = 0.0858
 Exercise 4.2 – Q5
O Old tyres are often given a new tread. Only 60% of these last more than 10000km. What is
the probability that, in a sample of 50 retreaded tyres,
 X ≡ Number of tyres which will last for more than 10000km
 X ~ B (50, 0.6)
 X* ~ N(30, 3.46412)

O
Step Action At least 40 At most 14

5 Change inequality P(X > 40) P(X < 14)

6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 39.5) = P(X* < 14.5)

7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > 2.74) = P( Z < -4.47)

Distribution

8 Find answer. = R(2.74) = 1-R(-4.47)

= 0.0031 ~0
 Exercise 4.2 – Q6
O A test has 100 MCQs and each question has 4 alternative answers. Only one alternative is correct. If
a person answers all of the questions randomly, what is the probability that the person
 X ≡ Number of questions correct
 X ~ B (100 0.25)
 X* ~ N(25, 4.33012)

Ste Action Gets 50 or more Gets more than 40 Gets less than 25
p
5 Change inequality P(X > 50) P(X > 40) P(X < 25)
P(X > 41) = P(X < 24)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 49.5) = P(X* > 40.5) = P( X* < 24.5)

7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > 5.66) = P(Z > 3.58) = P(Z < -0.12)
Distribution
8 Find answer. = R(5.66) = R(3.58) = 1 - R(-0.12)
=0 = 0.0002 = 0.4522
 Exercise 4.2 – Q7
O Insurance companies in Australia use tables which give the probability of death within 1, 5, and 10
years for a person of any age. For example the probability that a man, aged 71 dies within a year is
0.01. an insurance company has 5251 policies for men of this age. Estimate the probability that the
company will have to pay out next year on
 X ≡ Number of policies paid out
 X ~ B (5251, 0.01)
 X* ~ N(52.51, 7.21012)

O
Step Action Over 50 60 or more 70 or more

5 Change inequality P(X > 50) P(X > 60) P(X > 70)
= P(X > 51)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 50.5) = P(X* > 59.5) = P(X* > 69.5)

7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > -0.28) = P(Z > 0.97) = P(Z > 2.36)
Distribution
8 Find answer. = R(-0.28) = R(0.97) = R(2.36)
= 0.6103 = 0.1660 = 0.0091
 Solutions for Ex 4.3
1. a. 0.6333 b. 0.5403

2. a. 0.8729 b. 0.8532 c. 0.3543

3. a. 0.2676 b. 0.2119

4. a. 0.2420 b. 0.1841 c. 0.7580

5. a. 0.7642 b. 0.3344 (using Poisson)

6. a. 0.3156 b. 0.1057 c. 0.5392

7. a. 0.4422 b. 0.0778 c. 0.9265

8. a. 0 b. 0.7123

9. a. 0.2138 b. 0.5595 (using Poisson) c. 0.5239

10. a. 0.2463 b. 0.2589

11. a. 0.1254 b. 0.0959 (using Poisson) c. 0.7612 d. 0.0019

 Ex 4.3 Q1
O A random variable R has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 36. Use a Normal
approximation to calculate the following probabilities:
O R ~ Po(36)
O R* ~ N(36, 62)

Step Action P( 30 < R < 40) P( 30 < R < 40)

5 Change inequality P( 30 < R < 40) P( 30 < R < 40)
= P( 31 < R < 39)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(29.5 < R* < 40.5) = P(30.5 < R* < 39.5)
7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(-1.08 < Z < 0.75) = P( -0.92 < Z < 0. 58 )
Distribution
8 Find answer. = 0.6333 = 0.5403
 Ex 4.3 Q2
O A random variable Y is a Poisson distribution with a mean of 43. Use Normal approximation
to calculate:
O Y ~ Po(43)
O Y* ~ N(43, 6.55742)

No Action P (Y < 50) P( 30 < Y < 50) P(44 < Y < 54)
5 Change inequality P( Y < 50) P( 30 < Y < 50) P( 45 < Y < 53)

6 Perform continuity correction = P(Y* < 50.5) = P(29.5 < Y* < 50.5) = P(44.5 < Y* < 53.5)
7 Convert to Standardised = P(Z < 1.14) = P( -2.06 < Z < 1.14 ) = P(0.23 < Z < 1.160)
Normal Distribution
8 Find answer. = 0.8729 = 0.8532 = 0.3543
 Ex 4.3 Q3
O In a wheat field there is an infestation of weeds. On average, there are 32 weeds per square
meter. Assume that the distribution of weeds is a Poisson process. Use a normal
approximation to determine the probability that, in a randomly selected square metre, there
will be:
a. More than 35 weeds
b. Less than 28 weeds

O X ≡ Number of weeds per square meter

O X ~ Po(32)
O X* ~ N(32, 5.65692)

Step Action P( more than 35) P(less than 28)

5 Change inequality P( X > 35) P( X < 28)
= P(X > 36) = P(X < 27)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 35.5)) = P(X* < 27.5)
7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > 0.62) = P(Z < -0.80)
Distribution
8 Find answer. = 0.2676 = 0.2119
 Ex 4.3 Q4
A random variable X has a Poisson distribution with mean of 25. Use normal approximation to
determine the following probabilities:
a. P (X > 29)
b. P (X > 29)
c. P (X < 29)

O X ~ Po(25)
O X* ~ N(25, 52)

Step Action P(X > 29) P(X > 29) P(X < 29)
5 Change inequality P(X > 29) P( X > 29) P(X < 29)
= P(X > 30) = P(X < 28)
6 Perform continuity = P(X* > 28.5) = P(X* > 29.5) P(X* < 28.5)
correction
7 Convert to Standardised = P(Z > 0.70) = P(Z > 0.9) =P(Z < 0.7)
Normal Distribution
8 Find answer. = 0.2420 = 0.1841 = 0.7580
 Ex 4.3 Q5
A sheet of glass usually has flaws: this is chips, specks or bubbles. Sheets of glass from a
particular factory have flaws at a mean rate of 12 flaws per square metre.
a. What is the probability of 10 or more flaws in a square metre of this glass?
b. What is the probability of 11, 12 or 13 flaws in a square metre of this glass?

O X ≡ Mean Number of flaws per square metre

O X ~ Po(12)
O X* ~ N(12, 3.46412)

Step Action P(10 or more) P(11, 12, 13)

5 Change inequality P(X > 10) P( X < 28)
= P(X < 27)
USE POISSON
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 9.5) = P(X* < 27.5)
7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > -0.72) =P(X=11)
P(Z < -0.80)
+ P(X=12)+P(X=13)
Distribution =
8 Find answer. = 0.7642 == 0.2119
0.3343
 Ex 4.3 Q6
O The number of customers per hour arriving at an ATM has a Poisson distribution. In
any 10 minutes interval, the mean number of arrivals is 4.5. Estimate the probability
that:
O 30 customers or more arrive in the next hour.
O 20 customers or less arrive in the next hour.
O More than 25 but less than 35 customers arrive in the next hour.

O X ≡ Number of customers per hour

O X ~ Po(27)
O X* ~ N(27, 5.19622)

Step Action P(X > 30) P(X < 20) P(25 < X < 35)
5 Change inequality P(X > 30) P(X < 20) P(25 < X < 35)
=P(26 < X < 34)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 29.5) = P(X* < 20.5) =P(25.5 < X* < 34.5)
7 Convert to Standardised = P(Z > 0.48) = P(Z < -1.25) =P(-0.29 < Z < 1.44)
Normal Distribution
8 Find answer. = 0.3156 = 0.1057 = 0.5392
 Ex 4.3 Q7
For a certain internet connection, there is an average of 1 transmission error per 20 seconds. What
is the probability of
a. More than 1 transmission error during half a minute of connection?
b. Less than 10 transmission error during 5 minutes of connection?
c. Less than 200 transmission errors during an hour of connection?

O X ≡ Number of transmission error

Step Action X ~ Po(1.5) X ~ Po(15) X ~ Po(180)

X* ~ N(15, 3.87302) X* ~ N(180, 13.41642)

P( X > 1) P(X < 10) P(X < 200)

5 Change inequality P( X > 35) P( X < 10) P(X < 200)
= P(X > 36) = P(X < 9) = P(X < 199)
Solve Using
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 35.5)) = P(X* < 9.5) = P(X* < 1999.5)
Poisson
7 Convert to Standardised = P(Z > 0.62) = P(Z < -1.42) = P(Z < 1.45)
Normal Distribution P(X > 1)
= 1 – [P(X=0) + P(X=1)]
8 Find answer. = 0.2676
0.4422 = 0.0778 = 0.9265
 Ex 4.3 Q8
Bacteria in yoghurt are distributed randomly throughout at an average of 42 per cubic cm.
calculate the probability that
a. A sample of 10 cubic cm will contain more than 500 bacteria.
b. A tub which holds 120 cubic cm will contain between 5000 and 6000 bacteria.

O X ≡ Number of bacteria per cubic cm of yoghurt.

Step Action X ~ Po(420) X ~ Po(5040)

X* ~ N(420, 20.49392) X* ~ N(5040, 70.99302)

P(X > 500) P(5000 < X < 6000)

5 Change inequality P( X > 500) P(5000 < X < 6000)
= P(X > 501) = P(5001 < X < 5999)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 500.5) = P(5000.5 < X* < 5999.5)
7 Convert to Standardised Normal = P(Z > 3.93) = P(-0.56 < Z < 13.51)
Distribution
8 Find answer. = 0.00004 = 0.7123
~0
 Ex 4.3 Q9
The number of serious traffic accidents per week in the city has a Poisson distribution with a mean
of 2.5. calculate the probability of
a. Exactly 3 accidents next week.
b. At least 5 accidents in the next fortnight
c. At least 60 accidents in the next six months.

O X ≡ Mean number of serious traffic accidents per week

Step Action X ~ Po(2.5) X ~ Po(5) X ~ Po(60)

X* ~ N(60, 7.74602)

P( X = 3) P(X > 5) P(X > 60)

5 Change inequality P(X > 60)
Solve Using Solve Using
6 Perform continuity correction Poisson Poisson = P(X* > 59.5)

7 Convert to Standardised P(X = 3) P(X > 5) = 1 – P(X < 4) = P(Z > -0.06)
Normal Distribution
= =
8 Find answer. = 0.5239
= 0.2138 = 0.5595
 Ex 4.3 Q10
A random variable X has a Poisson distribution with a mean value of 16.
Find P (17 < X < 19) using:
a. The Poisson formula
b. The Normal approximation method

O X ~ Po(16)
O X* ~ N(16, 42)

Step Action P( more than 35) P(17 < X < 19)

Solve Using Poisson
5 Change inequality P( X > 35) P(17 < X < 19)
= P(X > 36)
P(17 < X < 19)
6 Perform continuity correction = P(X* > 35.5)) = P(16.5 < X* < 19.5)
= P(X =17) + P(X=18) +
7 Convert to Standardised Normal P(X=19)
= P(Z > 0.62) = P(0.13 < Z < 0.88)
Distribution
=
8 Find answer. = 0.2676 = 0.2589
= 0.2463
 Ex 4.3 Q11
The marketing director of a company receives an average of 12 telephone complaints each week
(in a 5 working day week). Assume that the calls occur at random and that the number of
complaint calls per week has a Poisson distribution.
a. What is the probability that she receives 4 such calls in one day?
b. What is the probability that she receives 5 or more of such calls in one day?
c. What is the probability that she receives more than 20 such calls in 10 working days?
d. What is the probability that she receives 3 such calls in four consecutive days?

O X ≡ Mean number of calls per day

Action X ~ Po (2.4) X ~ Po (2.4) X ~ Po (24) 3 calls in 4

X* ~ N(24, 4.89902) consecutive days
P(X = 4) P(X > 5) P(X > 20) [P(X = 3)]4
5 Change inequality P(X > 20)
Solve Using = P(X > 21) Solve Using
6 Perform continuity Poisson Solve Using = P(X* > 20.5) Poisson
correction Poisson
7 Convert to Standardised P(X = 4) = P(Z > -0.71) [P(X = 3)]4
Normal Distribution P(X > 5) = 1 – P(X < 4)
8 Find answer. = = 0.7612 =
=
= 0.1254 = 0.20904
= 0.0019
 Solutions for Revision Questions

1. a. 0 4. X ~ B(m, 0.4) 7. a. 0.621%

b. 0.0668 a. 0.3456 b. 0.1587
c. 0.4332 b. 0.1626
8. a. 2.28% too big
2. X ~ N(3.5, 0.52) 5. Xa ~ N(25, 42);
b. 95.7%
a. i. Xb ~ N(30, 72)
9. a. 0.2787
0.8186 a. Species A = 0.0228;
ii. 0 b. 0.4091
Species B = 0.0314
b. 0.25
 The fish caught is
most likely Species B 10. a. 0
3. a. i. 0.5000 b. 0.8281 b. 0.0668 c.
ii. c. 0.9932 0.4828
0.3085
iii.
0.0228
6. a. 0.1587 .
b. 0.8413  196 days
b. 0.1719
c. 0.0436
 Solutions for Revision Questions
11. p = 0.6 15. NO NEED TO DO! 20. a. i. 0.2501
ii. 0.9957
12. a. i. 0.0574 16. a. 0.3264
b. i. 100; 8.9443
b. 0
ii. 0.3487 ii. 0.9671
c. 0.1814
iii. 0.5998
b. 0.9332 17. NO NEED TO DO! 21. a. 0.1550
b. 0.5155
13. a. 0.0196 18. a. 0.5314
c. ~ 1
b. 11 components b. 0.0001
c. 0.4053 c. 0.9841
22. NO NEED TO DO!
19. a. 0.9826
14. a. 0.1954
b. 0.1839 23. a. X ≡ Length of corn
b. 0.2381
c. 0.3679 cobs
c. 0.7619 d. 0.1990
d. 0.0015 X ~ N(9, 0.52)
b. 0.0228
. c. 114 corn cobs.
 Revision Questions – Q1
A teacher travels to school each day by car. She sets out from home
each day at 8 am exactly. The time taken for her journey can be
considered to be normally distributed with a mean of 15 minutes
and a standard deviation of 2 minutes.
Calculate the probability that her journey takes

X ≡ Time taken to travel

X ~ N (15, 22)
Exactly 15 minutes More than 18 minutes Between 15 to 18 minutes
P(X = 15) P(X > 18) P(15 < X < 18)
=0 = P(Z > 1.5) = P(0 < Z < 1.5)
= R(1.5) = R(0) – R(1.5)

c = 0.0668 = 0.4332
 Revision Questions – Q2
The weights of newborn babies are assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of 3.5 kg and a standard
deviation of 0.5 kg.
a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen newborn baby has a weight
i. between 3kg and 4.5 kg,
ii. of exactly 3.5 kg?

X ≡ Weight of newborn babies

X ~ N (3.5, 0.52)
Between 3kg and 4.5kg exactly 3.5 kg P(X > 3.5)
P( 3 < X < 4.5) P(X = 3.5)
=P(Z > 0)
= P(-1 < Z < 2) =0
=0.5
= R(-1) – R(2)
= 0.8186

b. If four newborn are randomly chosen, what is the probability that three of the four babies will be heavier
than 3.5 kg?
Y ≡ Number of babies heavier than 3.5kg
Y ~ B (4, 0.5)
P(Y= 3) = 4C3 x 0.53 x 0.51
= 0.2500
Revision Questions – Q3 (a)
Assume that the TEE scores for a subject are
normally distributed with a mean of 58 and a
standard deviation of 16.
Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen
score for this subject is
O less than 58, Less than 50
Less than 58 Greater than 90
P(X < 58) P(X < 50) P(X > 90)
O less than 50, = P(Z < -0.5)
= P(Z < 0) =P(Z > 2)
=O greater than 90. = 0.3085
0.5000 = 0.0228
Revision Questions – Q3(b & c)
b. If 10 scores for this subject are selected at random, calculate the probability that no
more than 3 scores are less than 58.
>> It is known that: P(X < 58) = 0.5
Y ≡ Number of scores less than 58
Y ~ B (10, 0.5)
P(Y < 3)
= P(Y = 0) + P(Y=1) + P(Y = 2) + P(Y=3)
= 0.1719

c. If 200 scores for this subject are selected at random, calculate the probability that no
more than 50 scores are less than 50.
>> It is known that: P(X < 50) = 0.3085
R ≡ Number of scores less than 50
R ~ B (200, 0.3085)
R* ~ N(61.7, 6.53192)
P(R < 50)
= P(R* < 50.5)
= P(Z < -1.71)
= 0.0436
Revision Questions – Q4
When Michael plays basketball his free throw percentage is 40. (This means that for each of
his attempts the probability of success is 0.4). Let X be the number of successful free throws in
m attempts made by Michael.
a. If m = 20, find the probability that Michael makes either 7 or 8 successful free throws.
X ≡ Number of successful free throws
X ~ B (20, 0.4)
P(7 or 8) = P(X = 7) + P(X = 8)
=+
= 0.3456

b. If m = 100, use a normal approximation to find the probability that Michael makes
between 45 and 50 (inclusive) successful free throws. Show all working.
X ≡ Number of successful free throws
X ~ B (100, 0.4)
X* ~ N(40, 4.89902)
P(45 < X < 50) = P(44.5 < X* < 50.5)
= P(0.92 < Z < 2.14)
= 0.1626
Revision Questions – Q5(a)
Two species of fish, A and B, look very similar and can only be told
apart by an expert. The lengths of both species of fish can be assumed
normally distributed with means of 25 cm and 30 cm and standard
deviations of 4 cm and 7 cm for species A and B respectively.
X ≡ Length of fish caught
XA ~ N(25, 42) and XB ~ N(30, 72)

a. A fish is caught that is less than 17 cm long. Justifying your

answer with appropriate calculations, state whether the fish is
more likely to belong to species A or species B.
P(XA < 17) P(XB < 17)
= P(ZA < -2) = P(ZB < -1.86)
= 0.0228 = 0.0314
The fish caught is most probably species B because the P(XB <
17) > P(XA < 17)
Revision Questions – Q5(b)
X ≡ Length of fish caught
XA ~ N(25, 42) and XB ~ N(30, 72)

b. Ten fish of species B are caught. What is the probability that at most 6 of them
are less than 30 cm long?
X ≡ Length of fish caught
P(XB < 30)
= P(ZB < 0)
= 0.5

Y ≡ Number of fish caught less than 30cm

Y ~ B(10, 0.5)
P(Y < 6)
= 1 – P(Y > 7)
= 1 – [P(Y = 7) + P(Y = 8) + P(Y = 9) + P(Y = 10)]
= 0.8281
Revision Questions – Q5(c)
X ≡ Length of fish caught
XA ~ N(25, 42) and XB ~ N(30, 72)

c. 200 fish from species A are caught. What is the probability that less than 45 are more than 29 cm
long?
X ≡ Length of fish caught
P(XA > 29)
= P(ZA > 1)
= 0.1587

Y ≡ Number of fish caught more than 29cm

Y ~ B(200, 0.1587)
Y* ~ N(31.74, 5.16752)
P(Y < 45)
= P(Y < 44)
= P(Y* < 44.5)
= P(Z < 2.47)
= 0.9932
Revision Questions – Q6
The time taken for Lee to get to work from home is normally distributed with a mean of 30
minutes and a standard deviation of 10 minutes. Lee is supposed to start work at 9.00 am.
X ≡ Time taken to travel
X ~ N(30, 102)
a. What is the probability that Lee is late, if she starts from home at 8.20 am?
P(Late) = P(arrive later than 9am)
= P(X > 40)
= P(Z > 1)
= 0.1587

b. If Lee works for 233 days a year and always starts from home at 8.20 am, on how many
days in her first year can she expect not to be late for work? Expected
P(not late) = 1 – P(late) value =
= 0.8413
Number of days expected NOT to be late =
= 233 × 0.8413
= 196 days
 Revision Questions – Q7
Susie bought a 3 hour videotape to record a film to be shown on TV. The brand of videotape she
chose has a length of tape that is normally distributed with a mean of 185 minutes and a standard
deviation of 2 minutes.
X ≡ Length of tape
X ~ N(185, 22)

a. What percentage of this brand of videotape have lengths less than three hours?
P(X < 180)
= P(Z < -2.5)
= 0.0062
0.62% of tapes will have less than 3 hours

b. Including all the credits, the film that Susie wants to record is three hours and seven
minutes long. What is the probability that Susie can get all of the film and credits on her
tape?
P(X > 187)
= P(Z > 1)
= 0.1587
 Revision Questions – Q8
A car manufacturing firm produces 100 mm diameter pistons for car engines. Detailed investigation shows
that the actual diameters are normally distributed with a mean of 100.2 mm and a standard deviation of 0.4
mm.
There are two requirements for piston size. New engines require the piston diameter to be between 99 mm
and 101 mm, while reconditioned engines require the piston diameter to be between 99.5 mm and 101.3 mm.
X≡ Diameter of piston
X ~ N(100.2, 0.42)

a. What proportion of pistons is too big to meet the requirements for new engines?
P(too big for new engines)
= P(X > 101)
= P(Z > 2)
= 0.0228
2.28% of pistons are too big for the new engines.

b. What proportion of pistons meets the requirements for reconditioned engines?

P(meets the requirement for reconditioned engines)
= P(99.5 < X < 101.3)
= P(-1.75 < Z < 2.75)
= 0.9570
95.70% of the pistons will meet the requirements for the reconditioned engines.
Revision Questions – Q9
Joe Striker plays soccer with the Western Wonders soccer team. When his side wins a corner
kick, Joe’s teammates try to kick the ball to him 40% of the time.
X ≡ Number of corner kicks
X ~ B(n, 0.4)

a. If the Western Wonders win 8 corner kicks in a game, calculate the probability that Joe’s
teammates try to kick the ball to him exactly 3 times.
X ~ B(8, 0.4)
P(X = 3) =
= 0.2787

b. Over a period of one year, the Western Wonders won 96 corner kicks when Joe was
playing. Use a normal approximation to find the probability that his teammates tried to
kick the ball to Joe at least 40 times. Indicate clearly which distribution you are using.
X ~ B(96, 0.4)
X* ~ N(38.4, 4.82)
P(X > 40) =P(X* > 39.5)
=P(Z > 0.23)
= 0.4091
Revision Questions – Q10
Cans of soft drinks are advertised as containing 375 ml However, there have been complaints for one particular brand
that several cans contained less than 375 ml causing the manufacturer to investigate the settings on the machines that
fill the cans. It turns out that the amount the machines are filling the cans with follows a normal distribution with a
mean of 378 ml and a standard deviation of 2 ml.
In answering each of the following questions indicate clearly what distribution you are using.
X ≡ Amount of liquid in a can
X ~ N(378, 22)

a. What is the probability that a can will contain exactly 375 ml?
P(X = 375) = 0

b. What is the probability that a can contains less than the advertised amount of drink?
P(Less than advertised)
= P(X < 375)
= P(Z < -1.5)
= 0.0668

c. If cans are sold in boxes of 24, what is the probability of finding at least two cans in the box with less than the
advertised amount of drink?
Y ≡ Number of cans less than the advertised amount.
Y ~ B (24, 0.0668)

P(Y > 2)
= 1 – [P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1)]
=1–[
= 0.4828
Revision Questions – Q11
In a group of teachers, the mean and the variance of the
number of teachers who own a Perodua car are 6 and 2.4
respectively. Find the probability that a teacher chosen at
random owns a Perodua car.

np = 6
npq = 2.4
 q = 0.4
 p = 0.6
Probability that a teacher chosen owns a Perodua car is 0.6
 Revision Questions –
Q12(a)
Ten percent of cars involved in serious accidents are ‘written off’. A
random sample of 10 cars involved in serious accidents was taken.
X ≡ Number of cars written off
X ~ B(10, 0.1)

a. Determine the probability that in this sample,

i. Exactly 3 cars were ‘written off’ [1]
P(X = 3) =

ii. No cars were ‘written off’ [1]

P(X = 0) =

iii. 2 cars or less were ‘written off’ [2]

P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
= 0.9298
Revision Questions – Q12(b)
b. A random sample of 100 cars involved in serious accidents
is taken. Determine the probability that in this sample,
more than 85 cars were not ‘written off’. [3]
X ≡ Number of cars not written off
X ~ B(100, 0.9)
X* ~ N(90, 32)

P(X > 85)

= P(X > 86)
= P(X* > 85.5)
= P(Z > -1.5)
= 0.9332
Revision Questions – Q13(a & b)
A factory manufactures electric components. The average life of a component is 1200 hours and the
standard deviation is 12000 minutes. If the distribution of lifetime is normal, find
X ≡ Average life of a component
X ~ N(1200, 2002)

a. The probability that a randomly selected component has a life between 1230 and 1240
hours. [2]
P(1230 < X < 1240)
= P(0.15 < Z < 0.2)
= 0.0196

b. The number expected to fail in the first 880 burning hours if a batch of 200 components is
considered. [3]
P(X < 880)
=P(Z < -1.6)
= 0.0548

Expected number of failures = np

= 200 × 0.0548
= 10.96
~ 11 components
Revision Questions – Q13(c)
A factory manufactures electric components. The average life of a component is
1200 hours and the standard deviation is 12000 minutes. If the distribution of
lifetime is normal, find
X ≡ Average life of a component
X ~ N(1200, 2002)

c. The proportion (to the nearest tenth) with life less than 1100 hours or more than
1460 hours. [3]

1100 1460

P(X < 1100) + P(X > 1460)

= 1 – P(1100 < X < 1460)
= 1 – P(-0.5 < Z < 1.3)
= 0.4053
Proportion = 40.5%
Revision Questions – Q14
The average number of times the college computer breaks down during the college
week, which is Monday to Saturday, is four. Find the probability that it breaks down,
X ≡ Number of breakdowns per week
X ~ Po(4)
a. Three times in a week [2]
P(X = 3) = 0.1954

b. Less than three times in a certain week [2]

P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
= 0.2381

c. At least three times in a certain week [2]

P(X > 3) = 1 – P(X < 2) = 1 – P(X < 3)
= 0.7619

d. Three times a week for 4 weeks consecutively [2]

[P(X = 3)]4 = 0.19544
= 0.0015
Revision Questions – Q16
The time taken for Cindy to get to school from home is normally distributed with a mean of 40
minutes and a variance of 121 minutes2. Cindy is supposed to start class at 8.30am everyday
and she always starts from home at 7.45am.
X ≡ Time taken to travel
X ~ N(40, 112)

a. What is the probability that Cindy is late, if she starts from home at 7.45am?
[2]
P(late) = P(X > 45)
= P(Z > 0.45)
= 0.3264

b. What is the probability that Cindy is exactly 5 minutes late? [1]

P(X = 50) = 0

c. What is the probability that Cindy is more than 5 minutes late? [2]
P(More than 5 mins late)
= P(X > 50)
= P(Z > 0.91)
= 0.1814
Revision Questions – Q18
The probability that a pen drawn at random from a box of pens is defective is 0.1. If
a sample of six pens is taken, find the probability that it will contain:

X ≡ Number of defective pens

X ~ B(6, 0.1)

a. No defective pens. [1]

P(X = 0) = 0.5314

b. Five or six defective pens. [2]

P(X = 5) + P(X = 6)
= 0.00006
~ 0.0001

c. Less than three defective pens. [2]

P(X < 3)
= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
= 0.9841
Revision Questions – Q19(a & b)
A sale manager receives 6 telephone calls on average between 9.30 am and
10.30 am on a weekday. Find the probability that

a. She will receive two or more calls between 9.30 am and 10.30 am on a
certain weekday. [3]
X ≡ Number of calls between 9.30 and 10.30
X ~ Po(6)
P(X > 2)
= 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X =1)]
= 0.9826

b. She will receive exactly two calls between 9.30 am and 9.40 am. [2]
X ≡ Number of calls between 9.30 and 9.40
X ~ Po(1)
P(X = 2)
= 0.1839
Revision Questions – Q19(c)
c. During a normal 5 day working week, there will be exactly 3
days on which she will receive no calls between 9.30 am and
9.40am. [2]
X ≡ Number of calls between 9.30am and 9.40am
X ~ Po(1)
P(X = 0)
= 0.3679

Y ≡ Number of days with not call between

9.30am and 9.40am
Y ~ B(5, 0.3679)
P(Y = 3) =
= 0.1990
 Revision Questions – Q20(a)
Unknown to the quality control engineers, 20% of the switches in a large batch do not conform to the required
specifications.
a. A quality control engineer chooses a random sample of 15 switches from the large batch.
i. Find the probability that exactly three switches do not conform to the required specifications.

[1]
X ≡ Number of switches do not conform
X ~ B (15, 0.2)
P(X = 3)
=
= 0.2501

ii. Eight or more switches in the sample do conform to the required specifications. [2]
Y ≡ Number of switches conform
Y ~ B (15, 0.8)
P(Y > 8)
= P(Y = 8) + P(Y = 9) + P(Y = 10) + P(Y = 11) + P(Y = 12) + P(Y = 13) + P(Y = 14)
+P(Y = 15)
= 0.9957
Revision Questions – Q20(b)
A Second quality control engineer chooses a random sample of 500 switches from
the same large batch in which 20% of the switches do not conform to the required
specifications.
i. Write down the mean and standard deviation of the number of switches
in the sample that do not conform to the required specifications. [2]
mean = 100
Standard deviation = 8.9443

ii. Use an appropriate normal approximation to calculate the probability

that 84 or more switches in the sample of 500 switches do not conform
to the required specifications. [2]
X ≡ Number of switches do not conform
X ~ B (500, 0.2)
X* ~ N(100, 8.94432)
P(X > 84) = P(X* > 83.5)
= P(Z > -1.84)
= 0.9671
Revision Questions – Q21
A normal fair die is rolled ten times. If the discrete random variable X is the
number of sixes in ten rolls of the die, determine the probability of
obtaining:
X Number of sixes
X ~ B(10, 1/6)

a. exactly three sixes [1]

P(X =3) =
= 0.1550

b. at least two sixes [2]

P(X > 2) = 1 – [(PX = 0) + P(X =1)]
= 0.5155

c. at most eight sixes [2]

P(X < 8) = 1 – [(PX = 9) + P(X =10)]
~1
 Revision Questions – Q23
5000 corn cobs, from a local wholesaler, are measured and recorded. The lengths are found to be
normally distributed with a mean of 9 cm and a variance of 0.25cm2.
a. Determine the random variable, X and define the probability. [1]
X ≡ Length of corn
X ~ N(9, 0.52)

b. Find the probability that a corn cob selected at random from the wholesaler has a length
between 8.5cm and 9.25cm. [2]
P(8.5 < X < 9.25)
= P(-1 < Z < 0.5)
= 0.5328

c. How many corn cobs would be expected to be over 10cm in length? [2]
P(X > 10)
= P(Z > 2)
= 0.0228
Number of corn expected to be above 10cm = np
= 5000 × 0.0228
= 114 pieces