BICOL UNIVERSITY
Graduate School
Legazpi City
Doctor of Philosophy
In Public Administration
Contingency Planning and Drills
334: and Simulation
Disaster and Exercises-Scenario Development
Crisis Management
& Drill Planning.
Report by:
Francis Jude A. Verzosa
Professor:
Dr. Cedric D. Daep
• Worldwide disaster trends
indicate their growing
intensities and complexities.
• Natural hazards abound:
Our
typhoon, flood, landslide,
earthquake, tsunami, volcanic
eruption, drought, etc. which
Challenges are further aggravated by
climate change.
• Vulnerability conditions
prevail.
• Disaster risks continue to
increase at a global scale.
What is
Contingency
Planning?
What is United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Contingency A forward planning process in a state of
uncertainty in which:
Planning? 1. Scenarios and objectives are agreed,
2. Managerial and technical actions
defined,
3. Potential response systems put in
place in order to prevent, or better
respond to, an emergency or critical
situation.
Republic Act
10121
What is
Contingency “A management process that analyzes
specific potential events or emerging
Planning? situations that might threaten society
or the environment and establishes
arrangements in advance to enable
timely, effective and appropriate
responses to such events and
situations.”
CP CP puts emphasis on DRRM:
• To predict where the
disaster may possibly strike;
• To prevent the effects of
disasters;
• To reduce their impact;
• To respond; and
• To cope with their
consequences
Which
Contingencies
should you
plan for?
Which
Contingencies
should you
plan for?
• Outbreak of an epidemic or
serious health problem like
the SARS, Bird Flu, and
COVID 19.
Other events
• Sudden increase of
where CP should displaced population
be considered: • Sudden shortages of
funding, food or other
commodities
• Terrorism
• Planned events like fiestas,
anniversaries, etc.
Why conduct
Contingency
Planning?
Ultimately to save lives and
property by:
Why conduct • Coordinating differing
Contingency mandates, and resources;
• Improving effectiveness,
Planning? reducing duplication; and
• Addressing more of the
underlying needs
Emergency An emergency is any situation
in which the life or well being
of community will be
threatened unless immediate
`
and appropriate action is
taken, and which demands an
extra ordinary response and
exceptional measures.
Critical issues
related to Time Shortage
emergencies
Enormous Needs
Complex Coordination
Major
problems faced
by emergency
managers
• Unclear objectives
Major • Massive needs
problems faced • Limited resources
by emergency • Security and safety issues
managers • Poor communications
/confusion
• Extreme importance of
decisions
How can CP
save lives
during the
emergency
phase?
How can CP
By arranging potential
save lives response structures,
mechanisms, and resources
during the that are focused into certain
emergency event
emergency PRIOR to its occurrence.
phase?
How can CP
save time?
• By identifying scenarios
in advance.
• By determining key policies
in advance.
How can CP • By defining objectives
in advance.
save time? • By identifying activities
in advance.
• By assigning likely
responsibilities
in advance.
• By preparing a plan
in advance.
Important
Points
• CP is not simply an academic
exercise. Neither is it an activity
that you undertake when there
is nothing else better to do with
your time.
Important • CP is a mechanism to pull
together resources & inter-
Points agency coordination at the
advent of early warning signals
of an impending emergency.
• Conducting CP means hoisting a
flag of alert, and seriously
pulling all actors to focus their
attention and energy to readily
respond to a potential
emergency.
When to do
Contingency
Planning?
When to do Contingency Planning
Is CP different Yes, most planning is generic in
nature, but Contingency Plans
from other address specific hazards and
specific actions to be taken should
Plans? the hazard occur.
Contingency Planning Vs. Other Planning
Do you have a
Plan?
Do you have a Plan?
Contingency
Plan: A Disaster
Preparedness
Tool
When to do Contingency Planning
Early warning • Information that serve as
indicators
signal in • Basis for policy analysis and
disaster prediction of developing crisis
preparedness • Basis to initiate risk reduction or
preparedness activities
Sources of •
•
Leaders
Vulnerable groups
early warning •
•
Political entities
Opposition groups
signals •
•
Local population
Journalists and newspaper
• Academic institutions, scientists,
scholars
• International bodies
• Local NGOs and associations
• Monitoring, Collection,
Steps for early . Analysis, and Dissemination
warning • Plan
analysis 1
• Action
.
The Process
• Scanning the Environment
1
• Generating Scenarios
2
• Setting Policies and
CP Process 3 Sectoral Objectives
• Identifying Gaps
4
• Arranging Response
5 Systems and Actions
• Endorsement, Testing,
6 Updating, & Activation
1
Scanning the
Environment
Area Profile Building
GEOGRAPHIC: location, contour,
features
DEMOGRAPHIC: population,
concentration, mobility, density, growth
ECONOMIC: production, industry,
trade, transportation, ownership
SOCIO-CULTURE: ethnic composition,
culture and habits, main issues,
traditional links
SECURITY & DEFENSE: crimes, major
threats, public safety, major
installations, border issues
Hazard Identification Mapping
• Group according to local zoning.
• Prepare your local map.
• Brainstorm on hazard prone
areas/past disasters and identify
their locations on the map.
• Indicate important landmarks in the
map
Disaster Risk Profiling
Past Disaster Events:
• What
• When
• Where
Potential Hazards:
• Probability to occur
• Will create the most Impact
Risk Formula:
R=HxV
Where:
R: Risk; H: Hazard; V: Vulnerability
CP Form 1: Hazard Assessment
CP Form 1: Hazard Assessment
2
Generating
Scenarios
Before proceeding,
By this time, you should have
arrived at one particular
emergency that is agreed to be
the event that the local must
plan for.
Drawing the Anatomy of
the Emergency
Part1
• Draw a location map
• Put important landmarks
• State & describe the
emergency event
• Draw the event in
the map
Drawing the Anatomy of
the Emergency
Part 2
• Determine the root cause/s
• Identify the triggering
factors
• List down the observable
early warning signals
Drawing the Anatomy of
the Emergency
Part 3
• Identify disaster risk
reduction measures to
address the root causes and
triggering factors
• Prioritize DRR measures
in the short, medium
and long-term period
CP Form 2: Anatomy of the Event
What scenarios do we
plan for?
• Scenarios to which your
organization is likely to respond.
• 3 of the most plausible scenarios
(Bad, Worse &
Worst)
• Plan for the “worst case”
scenario
• The plausibility or probability
of each scenario should be
communicated to other
offices to assess the
urgency and preparedness
actions.
Stating Scenarios
ASSUMPTIONS form the
foundation of each scenario
(bad, worse, worst) and should
be made explicit so others can
understand the reasoning.
Sample: Assumption
CP Form 3: Scenario
CP Form 4: Affected Population
3
Setting Policies
and Sectoral
Objectives
Setting Policies and Sectoral
Objectives
• Defines vision and direction of
operation
• Defines areas of responsibilities
3
• Serves as reference for response
operation
Policies and objectives should be:
• General in nature (less
controversial)
• Should be acceptable to all
parties
Global Policies
• Hyogo Framework for Action
(HFA) Priorities for Action 2005–
2010
• UN Millennium Development
3
Goals (UNMDGs)
• SPHERE Project on Humanitarian
Charter and Minimum Standards
in Disaster Response
• United Nations Convention on
Refugee Status
• UN Guiding Principles on Internal
Displacement
Global Policies
• IFRC’s International Disaster
Response Laws, Rules and
Principles (IDRL)
• ASEAN Agreement on Disaster
3
Management and Emergency
Response (AADMER)
• Agreement on the Establishment
of the ASEAN Humanitarian
Assistance (AHA) Centre on
disaster management
• UN Cluster Approach for
Humanitarian Response
Local Policies
• RA 10121 / IRR
• Climate Change Act
• Local Government Code of 1991
3
• Other local legislations/issuances
Policies and Sectors
Global Policies Local Policies
Sectoral Objectives
3
• Food & nutrition
• Health/Medical
• Water, Sanitation & Hygiene
• Temporary Shelter
• Evacuation Center Management
• Transportation
• Communications and Warning
• DANA
• SAR
• Engineering
• Coordination
• ICS / On-Scene Incident Management
Memorandum No.12 S.2008
4
Identifying
Gaps
What’s Missing?
Task Analysis
1. Brainstorm on all tasks in
emergency response
4
2. Group them into major sectors of
task and arrange vertically
3. List horizontally all agencies /
parties to be involved in the
response
4. Link the sectors with agencies
5. Determine who are the
coordinators
GAP ID Matrix
GAP ID Matrix
Gap Identification
A gap analysis matrix that will
answer the following questions:
4
• What will be accomplished?
• By who?
• What is missing
CP Form 5: Task Analysis
CP Form 6: Needs and Activities Inventory
4
Sectoral Planning
• Describe the organizational arrangements
of the sector
• Describe the general situation in the
sector (what will happen to the sector
during a worst case scenario of the event
to plan for?)
• Provide the standby-arrangements / and
standard operating procedures (SASOP)
of the sector occurs
• Define sector objectives
• Define the needs by comparing the
existing resources vs. projected
requirements
• Determine the sectoral indicators when
appropriate
• Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities
and how the tasks are distributed to
sector members
Emergency Indicators
• Serve as bases for determining
and planning for sectoral
resources
4
• Many problems facing
emergency managers point to
the need for more openness
towards coordination, starting
from indicators as the common
denomination.
Emergency Indicators
Indicators should shift focus from
“We, the responders”
4
To
“They, the people who need help”
Example of Emergency Indicators
4
Balance analysis of indicators with
common sense!
CP Form 7: Resource Inventory
CP Form 8: Needs Proection and Resource Gap Identification
5
Arranging
Response
Systems and
Actions
How to Arrange Response Systems
and Actions?
• Conduct coordination meeting
with concerned agencies
5
• Conduct Sectoral presentations
• Put them together into a
coherent plan
• Take note of possible gaps
Things to Discuss
• Who will put together the sectoral plans
in to a Contingency plan?
• Which agency will follow through this
plan (calling regular and monitoring
meeting, updating the facts and
5
assumptions, etc.)
• Who will monitor and report the early
warning signals?
• How the plan will be tested (table-top,
hypothetical drill, full-fledged
simulation?)
• When and how will the plan be
activated? reviewed? And updated? Or
staged down?
6
Endorsement,
Testing,
Updating, &
Activation
Consolidate Everything
• Integrate the otherwise
fragmented sectoral plans into a
coherent contingency plan
(drafting stage)
• A three-man committee maybe
6
constituted to consolidate the
draft contingency plan based on
the standard Contingency Plan
format
• Follow-up of the draft plan–
regular and monitoring
meetings, updating of facts and
assumptions
Endorsement, Testing, Updating and
Activation
When the plan has been finalized,
have the group actually submit the
PLAN to relevant authorities:
6
• Local Chief Executive/Chairman-
LDCC
• Local Sanggunian
Provide sufficient justification to
the local chief executive and local
Sanggunian that incase such
emergency takes place, the amount
of resources specified in the plan
will be required.
Discuss Steps Forward
6
CP
Format
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
Contingency Plan Framework
• Contingency planning is a pre-
emergency activity
• Contingency planning focuses
Summary on a specific risk
• Contingency planning should be
conducted at the presence of
clear early warning signals
• Contingency planning must end
when the emergency occurred
or when the alert is lowered
The Art of War
The Art of War by Sun Tzu: “The art of
war teaches us not to rely on the
likelihood of the enemy’s not coming
but on our readiness to receive him;
not on the chances of him not attacking
but rather on the fact that we have
made our position steadfast.”
References/Sources:
RA 10121
CDRRMO of Legazpi
http://www.test.accord.org.ph/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ACCORD
-manual-vol-3-Contingency-and-Risk-Reduction-Planning.pdf
https://care-philippines.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Contingenc
y-Planning-Checklist.pdf
https://blog.hubspot.com/service/contingency-planning
References
https://www.studocu.com/ph/document/isabela-state-university/
bachelor-of-technology-livelihood-education/cp-guidebook-as-of-
january-20201/37373011
End
Thank you.
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