SURMOUNT INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
MATHS PROJECT
PROBABILITY
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Definition of Probability:
If there are ‘n’ exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely
outcomes of a random experiment, and ‘m’ of them are
favourable to an event ‘A’, then the probability of happening of ‘A’
is:
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where m is no. of favourable events
n is no. of unfavourable events
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Terminology Used in Definition:
Random Experiment:
An occurrence which can be repeated a number of times
essentially under the same conditions & whose result can’t be
predicted beforehand, is known as a random experiment or
simply an experiment.
Sample Space & Sample Point:
The set of all possible outcomes of a experiment is called a
sample space (S)
The elements of sample space are called sample points.
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A sample space is said to be finite or infinite.
For Eg: If we throw a dice, it can result in any of the six numbers
1,2,3,4,5,6.
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Therefore sample space of this experiment is
S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } and
n(S) = 6
Event:
Any subset of sample space is called an event.
If S is a sample space, then it is obvious that the null set Ø and
the sample space S it self are events.
For eg: E = { 2,4,6} and n (A) = 3
Exhaustive Outcomes:
By exhaustive we mean that all the possible outcomes have
been taken into consideration and one of them must happen as
a result of an experiment.
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For Eg(1): If we throw a dice, there are six exhaustive outcomes ,
namely numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming uppermost.
Eg(2): In tossing a coin there are two exhaustive out comes
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namely coming up of head & tail.
Mutually Exclusive Outcomes:
Outcomes are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of
an outcome excludes the possibility of the happening of other out-
comes.
For e.g.: In tossing a coin, if head coming up then coming up of tail
is excluded in that particular chance.
Equally Likely Outcomes:
Outcomes are said to be equally likely when the occurrence of
none of them is expected in preference to others.
Independent & Dependent Event:
Two events are said to be independent if the probability of occur-
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rence of either of them is not affected by the occurrence or non –
occurrence of the other.
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On the other hand, if the occurrence of one event affects the
probability of occurrence of the other, then the second event is said
to be dependent on the first.
Illustrations 1:
An unbiased dice is thrown. What is the probability of
i. getting a six
ii. getting either five or six
Solution:
In a single throw of dice, there are six possible outcomes i.e.
1,2,3,4,5,6.
Thus n(S) = 6
iii. getting a six
Here n(E) = 1
Therefore required probability:
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ii. getting either five or six
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Here n(E) = 2
Therefore required probability:
Illustrations 2:
In a simultaneous throw of two die, find the probability of get -
ting a total of 6.
Solution:
In a simultaneous throw of two die, we have 6 * 6 i.e. 36 possible
outcomes.
Thus n(S) = 36 and
E = { (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)} i.e. n (E) = 5
Therefore required probability:
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THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY:
Addition Theorem (OR Theorem)
Multiplication Theorem (AND Theorem)
Addition Theorem:
Case 1: When events are mutually exclusive:
It state that if two events A & B are mutually exclusive then the
probability of occurrence of either A or B is the sum of the indi-
vidual probability of A & B. Symbolically
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
Case 2: When events are NOT mutually exclusive:
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It states that if two events A & B are not mutually exclusive, then
probability of the occurrence of either A or B is the sum of the in-
dividual probability of A & B minus the probability of occurrence
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of both A and B. Symbolically
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
Conditional Probability:
The probability of occurrence of event A, given that the event B
has already occurred is called conditional probability of occur-
rence of A on the condition that B has already occurred.
It is denoted by P(A/B).
If A and B are independent events, then P(A/B) = P(A).
Multiplication Theorem:
The probability of simultaneous occurrence of two events A & B is
the product of probability of A and the conditional probability of B
when A has already occurred or vice – versa. Symbolically
P(A B) = P(A). P(B/A), If P(A) ≠ 0
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P(A B) = P(B). P(A/B), If P(B) ≠ 0
It is noted that in case of independent events:
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P(A B) = P(A). P(B)
