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Overview of ASEAN and India Relations

The document provides information about the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It discusses the history and formation of ASEAN in 1967 with five founding members. It has since expanded to include 10 member countries. The goals of ASEAN include accelerating economic growth, social progress, and cultural development among its members. The document also discusses several ASEAN initiatives and frameworks including the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN Free Trade Area, Common Effective Preferential Tariff scheme, and India's economic relations and trade with various ASEAN countries.

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Gagandeep Kaur
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Topics covered

  • ASEAN and Cambodia,
  • ASEAN Trade Relations with Cam…,
  • Trade Agreements,
  • ASEAN and Thailand,
  • Regional Cooperation,
  • ASEAN and Vietnam,
  • ASEAN and Philippines,
  • ASEAN and Indonesia,
  • Economic Development,
  • CEPT
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
445 views48 pages

Overview of ASEAN and India Relations

The document provides information about the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It discusses the history and formation of ASEAN in 1967 with five founding members. It has since expanded to include 10 member countries. The goals of ASEAN include accelerating economic growth, social progress, and cultural development among its members. The document also discusses several ASEAN initiatives and frameworks including the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN Free Trade Area, Common Effective Preferential Tariff scheme, and India's economic relations and trade with various ASEAN countries.

Uploaded by

Gagandeep Kaur
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • ASEAN and Cambodia,
  • ASEAN Trade Relations with Cam…,
  • Trade Agreements,
  • ASEAN and Thailand,
  • Regional Cooperation,
  • ASEAN and Vietnam,
  • ASEAN and Philippines,
  • ASEAN and Indonesia,
  • Economic Development,
  • CEPT

ASSOCIATION OF SOUTH EAST

ASIAN NATIONS

One Vision, One Identity, One Community

PRESENTED BY- Gagandeep


Kaur
 About ASEAN

 ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

 ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)

 CEPT

 India and ASEAN


ASEAN (HISTORY)
 ASEAN was preceded by an organisation called the Association of

Southeast Asia, commonly called ASA, an alliance consisting of


the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand that was formed in 1961.
The bloc itself, however, was established on 8 August 1967, when
foreign ministers of five countries– Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand–signed the ASEAN
Declaration, more commonly known as the Bangkok Declaration.
 The motivations for the birth of ASEAN
were so that its members’ governing elite
could concentrate on nation building, as
well as a desire for economic development;
not to mention Indonesia’s ambition to
become a regional hegemon through
regional cooperation with Malaysia and
Singapore
COUNTRIES
5

6) Myanmar - July 23, 1997


1)Brunei – January 7 1984
7) Philippines - August 8, 1967
2) Cambodia - April 30, 1999

3) Indonesia - August 8, 1967 8) Singapore - August 8, 1967

4) Laos - July 23, 1997 9) Thailand - August 8, 1967

5) Malaysia - August 8, 1967 10) Vietnam - July 28 , 1995


ASEAN(features)
 A group of 10 nations(south-east countries)
 It was formed on 8 August 1967 by Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and
Thailand & later joined by other countries
 Its aims include the acceleration of economic
growth, social progress, cultural development
among its members.
 Spans over area of 4.46 million squares
 Population of approximately 580mn people(8.7%
world population)
POPULATION(IN MILLIONS)
GDP GROWTH
Contribution of services exports
2009
ARF(ASEAN regional forum)

The ASEAN regional forum is an informal


multilateral dialogue of 27 members that seek
to address issues like confidence building,
foster dialogues on disputed issues in Asia
Pacific region. The ARF met for the first time
in 1994.
• AUSTRALIA
• CANADA
• PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
• EUROPEAN UNION
• INDIA
• JAPAN
• NORTH KOREA
• SOUTH KOREA
• MONGOLIA
• NEWZEALAND
• PAKISTAN
• RUSSIA
• UNITED STATES
• BANGLADESH
ASEAN FREE TRADE AREA

To eliminate tariff barriers among the south east


asean countries with a view to integrating the
asean economies into a single economic base
and creating a regional market of 600 million
people.
Launched in 1992
When the AFTA agreement was originally
signed, ASEAN had6members,namely,
Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand.All the four
latecomers were required to sign the
AFTA agreement in order to join asean,
but were given longer time frames in
which to meet AFTA'S tariff reduction
obligations.
CEPT
 Unlike the EU, AFTA does not apply a common external tariff on
imported goods. Each ASEAN member may impose tariffs on
goods entering from outside ASEAN based on its national
schedules. However, for goods originating within ASEAN, ASEAN
members are to apply a tariff rate of 0 to 5 percent
 ASEAN members have the option of excluding products from the
CEPT in two cases: 1.) Temporary exclusions; 2.) Sensitive
agricultural products; . Temporary exclusions refer to products for
which tariffs will ultimately be lowered to 0-5%, but which are
being protected temporarily by a delay in tariff reductions.
India and ASEAN
 Mutual interest led ASEAN to invite India to become its full dialogue
partner during the fifth ASEAN Summit in Bangkok in 1995.
 In August 2009, India signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the
ASEAN members in Thailand. Under the ASEAN-India FTA, ASEAN
member countries and India will lift import tariffs on more than 80 per
cent of traded products between 2013 and 2016,.
 India has made requests in a number of areas including
teaching, nursing, architecture, chartered accountancy
and medicine as it has a large number of English
speaking professionals in these areas who can gain from
job opportunities in the ASEAN region.

Total bilateral trade 45.8 billion dollars


INDIAN TRADE
TRADE(BILLION $)
50 45.34
45 39.8
40
35 30.7
30 TRADE(BILLION $)
23 24.19
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
BILATERAL TRADE
INDIA BILATERAL TRADE IN 2008-09 IN bn $

12

10.6

10 9.3

16.1

4.6

2.15

2
1 1.15
0.5

0
MALAYSIA COMBODIA VIETNAM PHILLIPINE INDONESIA MYANMAR THAILAND
INDIA’S EXPORT TO DIFFERENT
COUNTRIES
EXPORTS IN Bn $
8.45
9
8
7
6
5
4 3.42
2.56 EXPORTS
3 1.7 1.94
1.59
2 1
0.47
1
0
R E IA IA M E IA R D
S D A IN S A N
PO AY
B O T N
L IP N
E
NM
I LA
A L I E L O A A
NG A M V I D Y H
O H
SI M C P IN M T
INDIA & SINGAPORE
 Singapore is the single largest investor in India amongst the ASEAN
countries
 The total bilateral trade during 2008-09 was US$ 16.1 billion, an
increase of 3.86 per cent over US$ 15.5 billion in 2007-08
 The respective Ministry of Commerce and Industry of both countries,
agreed on a bilateral economic roadmap to take the India-Singapore
Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) forward
in the coming five years. As per the roadmap the two countries will
work towards doubling the annual bilateral trade by 2015
India-Singapore Bilateral Economic
Roadmap includes:
 Increase two-way flow of tourists, businessmen and professionals
 Expedite conclusion of mutual recognition agreements (MRAs) for
dentistry, medical, nursing, architecture, accountancy and company
secretary professionals on priority
 Develop closer co-operation in tourism

GOODS TRADED WITH SINGAPORE-:


 Mineral fuels
 Oils
Gems & jwellery
Ships & boats
INDIA & MALAYSIA
 Malaysia is the 25th largest overall investor and third largest investor among
ASEAN countries with a total inflow of US$ 252.97 million during the April 2000-
March 2010 period,
 Indians play an important role in promoting tourism in Malaysia. Following a 7.1
per cent growth in revenues from Indian tourists in 2009, Malaysia expects 650,000
visitors from India in 2010, according to the Director General of Malaysia Tourism.
 Moreover, Indian biotech companies are increasingly looking at making
investments in Malaysia. It is attracting Indian companies with a large number of
sops including a 10-year tax holiday, duty exemptions, customised incentives for
large investments,
 GOODS TRADED-:

1. GEMS

2. ORGANIC STRUCTURE

3. PEARLS
INDIA AND THAILAND
 Bilateral trade between the two countries touched US$ 4.6 billion in 2008-09, as compared to
US$ 4.12 billion in 2007-08, registering a growth of 12.9 per cent.
 India exported goods worth US$ 1.94 billion in 2008-09 and worth US$ 1.25 billion during
April-December 2009-10, to Thailand
 Total FDI inflow during the period April 2000-March 2010 from Thailand was US$ 77.97
million,
 India and Thailand are targeting bilateral trade worth US$ 12 billion by 2012.
 Main items of trade are-:
 natural pearls
 ,gems and jewellery,
 residue and waste from food industries and organic chemicals
INDIA & INDONESIA
 Indonesia is an important source of FDI for India. It is the 16th
largest FDI investor amongst all countries and the second largest
amongst the ASEAN countries. FDI inflows from Indonesia into
India totalled US$ 604.28 million during April 2000-March 2010
 During the period 2008-09, India exported goods worth US$ 2.56
billion to Indonesia. During April-December 2009-10, India
exported goods worth US$ 2.3 billion to Indonesia comprising
mainly of organic chemicals, mineral fuels and ships and boats,
 India and Indonesia are targeting bilateral trade worth US$ 20
billion by 2020
INDIA & COMBODIA

 During 2008-09, bilateral trade between the two countries stood at US$

49.61 million. India exported goods worth US$ 46.90 million to Cambodia

in 2008-09. During April-December 2009-10,

 India exported goods worth US$ 30.53 million, chiefly

comprising pharmaceuticals, cotton and tobacco,


INDIA & PHILLIPINES
 Bilateral trade between India and Philippines was worth US$
998.54 million in 2008-09 as compared to US$ 824.87 million in
2007-08, an increase of 21.05 per cent.

 Indian exports to Philippines during 2008-09 totalled US$ 743.77


million. During April-December 2009-10, India exported goods
worth US$ 534.38 million to Philippines.

 comprising chiefly of meat, iron and steel and vehicles other than
railways,.
INDIA & MYANMAR
 During 2008-09, India exported goods worth US$ 221.64 million to
Myanmar comprising mainly of pharmaceuticals and iron and steel.
Bilateral trade stood at US$ 1.15 billion during 2008-09, an increase
of 15.7 per cent over US$ 994.45 million in 2007-08, according to
the latest data by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
 FDI inflows from Myanmar into India totalled US$ 8.96 million in
the period April 2000-March 2010, according to data released by the
Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
WWW.IBEF.ORG
WWW.WIKIPEDIA.COM
WWW.ASEANSEC.ORG
WWW.UNESCAP.ORG
CIA WORLD FACT BOOK
NORTH AMERICAN FREE
TRADE AGGREMENT
NAFTA
12/08/2021 29
AN INTRODUCTION

 Officiallanguages - English, French and Spanish


 Membership - Canada, Mexico, United States
 Establishment - Formation1 January 1994 
 Area - Total21,783,850 km² (1st)
 Population - 2008 estimate445,335,091 (3rd) - 
 GDP 2007 estimate - Total$15,857 billion (1st) -

12/08/2021 30
 The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA ) is a
trilateral trade bloc in North America created by the governments
of the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

 The agreements were signed in December 1993 by the leaders of


the three countries — Brian Mulroney of Canada, Carlos Salinas
de Gortari of Mexico, and Bill Clinton of the United States but
did not come into effect until January 1, 1994.

◦ In terms of combined purchasing power parity GDP of its members, as of


2007 the trade bloc is the largest in the world and second largest by nominal
GDP comparison.

◦ It also is one of the most powerful, wide-reaching treaties in the


world.
12/08/2021 31
NAFTA SUPPLEMENTS
 The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has two supplements:-
the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation
(NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labour Cooperation
(NAALC)

 (NAAEC) was a response to environmentalists' concerns that the United


States would lower its standards if the three countries did not achieve consistent
environmental regulation.

 (NAALC) supplements NAFTA and endeavors to create a foundation for


cooperation among the three countries for the resolution of labour problems, as
well as to promote greater cooperation among trade unions and social
organizations in order to fight for improved labor conditions.

12/08/2021 32
Trade and Investment Effects

 NAFTA is a broad agreement, but improved market access,


including tariff reductions on merchandise trade, was the major
U.S. goal.

 After ten years, most tariffs have gone to zero, except for some
very sensitive (mostly agricultural) goods that have limited
protection for up to 15 years. Clearly, U.S.-Mexico trade and
investment have grown sharply over the past decade.

 From 1994 to 2003, U.S. exports to Mexico rose 91%, compared


to 41% to the world. U.S. imports increased by 179%, compared
to 89% from the world.
12/08/2021 33
$800

$700

$600
BILLION DOLLARS

411.8
$500

412.2
$400

$300

$200
300.9

226.9
$100

$0
NAFTA
EU(25) & Japan

EXPORTS IMPORTS

12/08/2021 34
U.S.-NAFTA total trade
• Trade between the United States and its NAFTA
partners has soared since the agreement entered
into force.
• U.S. goods and services trade with NAFTA
totaled $1.1 trillion in 2008 (latest data available
for Goods and Services trade).
• Exports totaled $482 billion; Imports totaled
$596 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade
deficit with NAFTA was $114 billion in 2008
• The United States has $735 billion in total (two ways)
goods trade with NAFTA countries (Canada and
Mexico) during 2009. Goods exports totaled $334
billion; Goods imports totaled $401 billion. The U.S.
goods trade deficit with NAFTA was $68 billion in
2009. 
• Trade in services with NAFTA (exports and imports)
totaled $110 billion in 2008 (latest data available).
• Services exports were $69.8 billion; Services imports
were $40.2 billion. The U.S. services trade surplus with
NAFTA was $29.6 billion in 2008. 
Exports

 The NAFTA countries (Canada and Mexico), were the top two purchasers of
U.S. exports in 2009. (Canada $204.7 billion and Mexico $129.0 billion). 

 U.S. goods exports to NAFTA in 2009 were $333.7 billion, down 19.1% ($79
billion) from 2008, but 102% from 1994 (the year prior to Uruguay Round)
and up 135% from 1993 (the year prior to NAFTA). U.S. exports to NAFTA
accounted for 31.6% of overall U.S. exports in 2009.

12/08/2021 37
 The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2009 were: Machinery
($52.0 billion), Electrical Machinery ($44.2 billion), Vehicles
(parts) ($41.4 billion), Plastic ($18.5 billion), and Mineral Fuel and
Oil ($17.4 billion). 
 U.S. exports of agricultural products to NAFTA countries totaled
$28.6 billion in 2009. Leading categories include: red meats,
fresh/chilled/frozen ($2.5 billion), coarse grains ($2.1 million),
fresh fruit ($1.7 billion), snack foods (excluding nuts) ($1.7
billion), and fresh vegetables ($1.7 billion). 
 U.S. exports of private commercial services to NAFTA were $69.8
billion in 2008, up 5.6% ($3.7 billion) from 2007, and up 146%
since 1994. 
Imports
 The NAFTA countries were the second and third largest suppliers of goods
imports to the United States in 2009. (Canada $224.9 billon, and Mexico
$176.5 billion). 

 U.S. goods imports from NAFTA totaled $401.4 billion in 2009, down 27.7%
($154 billion), from 2008, but 126% from 1994, and up 166% from 1993. U.S.
imports from NAFTA accounted for 25.8% of overall U.S. imports in 2009,
down from 26.9% in 1994. 

 The five largest categories in 2009 were Mineral Fuel and Oil (crude oil)
($89.0 billion), Vehicles ($58.5 billion), Electrical Machinery ($54.1 billion),
Machinery ($37.8 billion), and Special Other ($12.2 billion). 

12/08/2021 39
 U.S. imports of agricultural products from NAFTA
countries totaled $26.1 billion in 2009. Leading
categories include: fresh vegetable ($3.7 billion), snack
foods, (including chocolate) ($3.4 billion), fresh fruit
(excluding bananas) ($2.1 billion), processed fruit and
vegetables ($1.9 billion), and wine and beer ($1.7
billion). 
 U.S. imports of private commercial services* (i.e.,
excluding military and government) were $40.2 billion
in 2008 (latest data available), up 0.5% ($207 million)
from 2007, and up 127% since 1994. 
EFFECTS OF NAFTA

BENEFITS

 Benefit’s the importers by reduced or duty free goods.

 No MPF from Canada for NAFTA goods

 Can make the exporter more competitive then other non-


participating countries

 200% increase in trade among the 3 countries.

 Increase market access within each12/08/2021


country. 41
LIMITATIONS

 It has negative impacts on farmers in Mexico who saw food prices


fall based on cheap imports from U.S. agribusiness

 It has negative impacts on U.S. workers in manufacturing and


assembly industries who lost jobs.

 Critics also argue that NAFTA has contributed to the rising levels
of inequality in both the U.S. and Mexico.

 Some economists believe that NAFTA has not been enough (or
worked fast enough) to produce an economic convergence, nor to
substantially reduce poverty rates
12/08/2021 42
 NAFTA slightly increased growth in output and productivity –

The CBO study, which had a limited model for estimating the
trade effects on GDP, found that NAFTA increased annual GDP
growth in the United States by no more than .04%, and for
Mexico, no more than 0.8%.

 NAFTA had little or no impact on aggregate employment –

None of the reports attributed changes in aggregate U.S. or


Mexican employment levels to NAFTA

12/08/2021 43
Impact on Jobs

 The study's indicates that the reduction in net exports to Mexico


has eliminated 227,663 U.S. job opportunities since 1993, and the
reduction in net exports to Canada has eliminated 167,172 job
opportunities in the same period. In total, NAFTA resulted in a net
loss of 394,835 jobs in its first three years.

 The analysis finds that NAFTA has eliminated significant numbers


of jobs for women and members of minority groups, as well as
white males. Between 1993 and 1996, women lost 141,454 jobs to
NAFTA, blacks lost 36,890 jobs, and Hispanics lost 22,520 jobs,
numbers closely reflecting these groups' shares in manufacturing
industries

12/08/2021 44
MOBILITY OF PERSONS

According to the Department of Homeland Security Yearbook of


Immigration Statistics, during fiscal year 2006 (i.e., October 2005
through September 2006 74,098 foreign professionals (64,633
Canadians and 9,247 Mexicans) were admitted into the United
States for temporary employment under NAFTA (i.e., in the TN
status).
Additionally, 17,321 of their family members (13,136
Canadians, 2,904 Mexicans, as well as a number of third-country
nationals married to Canadians and Mexicans) entered the U.S. in
the treaty national's dependent (TD) status

12/08/2021 45
PUBLIC OPINION

Public opinion toward NAFTA in the United States,


Canada, and Mexico is mixed. A survey conducted by
CIDE and COMEXI in Mexico showed that 64 percent
of the Mexican public favored NAFTA.

 The Program on International Policy Attitudes


reported in a poll that 47 percent of Americans thought
that NAFTA has been good for the United States, while
39 percent thought it had been bad for the country

12/08/2021 46
CONCLUSION

NAFTA is one of the most successful treaties of the times in


terms of growth in trade i.e. imports & exports , G.D.P e.t.c but
on the other hand it is also responsible for causalities like loss of
jobs, migration, rising level of inequality and many others.

Thus it is important that the treaty should be carried forward


concerning about taking steps for the problems originated due to
NAFTA ,otherwise it will create inequality in many terms which
can lead to bad conditions in future for all the three countries.

12/08/2021 47
12/08/2021 48

Common questions

Powered by AI

NAFTA's service trade outcomes are characterized by a substantial increase in service exports, with U.S. exports to NAFTA partners reaching $69.8 billion in 2008, thanks to improved market access and tariff reductions. NAFTA facilitated growth in service exports by eliminating trade barriers between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. In contrast, ASEAN's service trade has been primarily limited by ongoing negotiation hurdles and varying degrees of economic integration across member states, reflecting both economic diversity and disparate levels of development, impeding uniform service trade growth .

During its initial years, NAFTA had notable economic impacts on labor markets. In the U.S., the reduction in net exports to Mexico and Canada resulted in significant job losses, estimated at 227,663 and 167,172 job opportunities respectively, totaling to a net loss of 394,835 jobs in the first three years. These job losses disproportionately affected women and minority groups such as Blacks and Hispanics who lost 36,890 and 22,520 jobs, respectively. Critics argue that NAFTA contributed to increased inequality and did not significantly impact employment levels in aggregate across its member countries .

ASEAN originated as a successor to the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA), an alliance formed in 1961 by the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand. However, ASEAN itself was established on August 8, 1967, when the foreign ministers of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand signed the ASEAN Declaration, known as the Bangkok Declaration. The main objectives at the time of its establishment included focusing on nation-building, pursuing economic development, and Indonesia's ambition to become a regional leader through cooperation with Malaysia and Singapore .

The ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement, signed in 2009, was pivotal in enhancing economic ties by lifting import tariffs on over 80% of traded products between 2013 and 2016. This agreement was expected to significantly boost trade relations by providing Indian professionals, particularly in fields like teaching and medicine, with increased job opportunities in the ASEAN region due to India's large English-speaking population. Additionally, this move was anticipated to increase total bilateral trade, which was valued at 45.8 billion dollars at the time .

Singapore is the single largest investor in India among ASEAN countries. During the period of 2008-09, the total bilateral trade between Singapore and India was US$ 16.1 billion, marking an increase of 3.86% over the previous year. Looking forward, Singapore and India planned to double their annual bilateral trade by 2015, as part of a bilateral economic roadmap. The roadmap included increasing the flow of tourists, businessmen, and professionals, as well as expediting mutual recognition agreements in sectors like medical, nursing, and architecture professionals .

The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) was established in 1994 as an informal multilateral dialogue platform involving 27 members. Its strategic significance lies in its role in addressing and fostering dialogue on security issues and confidence-building in the Asia-Pacific region. The ARF serves as a forum for countries like Australia, Canada, the European Union, the U.S., China, Russia, and others, to collaboratively address disputed issues, thereby enhancing regional stability and security .

Public perception of NAFTA varied across the member countries. In Mexico, 64% of the public favored NAFTA, likely due to perceived economic benefits such as increased trade opportunities and foreign investment. In the United States, public opinion was divided, with 47% viewing NAFTA as beneficial and 39% seeing it as detrimental. This division might stem from differing impacts, including job losses in certain sectors colliding with expanded export opportunities. These differences in perception are indicative of the varied economic benefits and challenges experienced by each nation due to NAFTA .

The establishment of ASEAN in 1967 was rooted in geopolitical strategy, addressing the complex regional dynamics of Southeast Asia. The founding nations sought to focus on nation-building efforts and pursue economic development collectively. Furthermore, Indonesia harbored ambitions to become a regional hegemon, promoting collaboration with countries like Malaysia and Singapore as a means to stabilize the region, reduce intra-regional conflicts, and deter external interventions. This strategic alliance facilitated a unified regional front that could effectively navigate the political tensions and external pressures of the time .

Unlike the European Union, which applies a common external tariff on imported goods, AFTA does not implement such a policy. Each ASEAN member can impose tariffs on goods entering from outside the ASEAN region based on its national schedules. However, for goods originating within ASEAN, members apply a reduced tariff rate of 0 to 5 percent. Additionally, ASEAN members have the option to exclude products temporarily or in cases of sensitive agricultural products from the Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme .

Key challenges and criticisms of NAFTA include negative impacts on Mexican farmers due to increased competition from inexpensive U.S. agricultural imports, leading to a fall in food prices. In the U.S., it contributed to job losses in manufacturing and assembly industries and is partly blamed for rising inequality in both the U.S. and Mexico. Additionally, some economists argue that NAFTA did not fulfill expectations of economic convergence and poverty reduction. While it slightly boosted GDP growth, its impact on aggregate employment was minimal, and public opinion remains divided on its benefits .

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