An Introduction to Decision
Making
Chapter 20
McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008
GOALS
Define the terms state of nature, event,
decision alternative, and payoff.
Organize information in a payoff table or a
decision tree.
Find the expected payoff of a decision
alternative.
Compute opportunity loss and expected
opportunity loss.
Assess the expected value of information.
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Statistical Decision Theory
Classical statistics focuses on estimating
a parameter, such as the population
mean, constructing confidence intervals,
or hypothesis testing.
Statistical Decision Theory (Bayesian
statistics) is concerned with determining
which decision, from a set of possible
decisions, is optimal.
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Elements of a Decision
There are three components to any
decision-making situation:
The available choices (alternatives or acts).
The states of nature, which are not under
the control of the decision maker -
uncontrollable future events.
The payoffs - needed for each combination
of decision alternative and state of nature.
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Decision Making
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Payoff Table and Expected Payoff
A Payoff Table is a listing of all
possible combinations of decision
alternatives and states of nature.
The Expected Payoff or the Expected
Monetary Value (EMV) is the expected
value for each decision.
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Calculating the EMV
EMV ( Ai ) [ P( S j ) V ( Ai , S j )
Let Ai be the ith decision alternative.
Let P(Sj) be the probability of the jth state of nature.
Let V(Ai, Sj) be the value of the payoff for the
combination of decision alternative Ai and state of
nature Sj.
Let EMV (Ai) be the expected monetary value for
the decision alternative Ai.
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Decision Making Under Conditions of
Uncertainty - Example
Bob Hill, a small investor, has $1,100 to invest. He has studied several common stocks
and narrowed his choices to three, namely, Kayser Chemicals, Rim Homes, and
Texas Electronics. He estimated that, if his $1,100 were invested in Kayser
Chemicals and a strong bull market developed by the end of the year (that is, stock
prices increased drastically), the value of his Kayser stock would more than
double, to $2,400. However, if there were a bear market (i.e., stock prices
declined), the value of his Kayser stock could conceivably drop to $1,000 by the
end of the year. His predictions regarding the value of his $1,100 investment for
the three stocks for a bull market and for a bear market are shown below. A study
of historical records revealed that during the past 10 years stock market prices
increased six times and declined only four times. According to this information, the
probability of a market rise is .60 and the probability of a market decline is .40.
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EMV- Example
(A1)=(.6)($2,400)+(.4)($1,000) =$1,840
(A2)=(.6)($2,400)+(.4)($1,000) =$1,760
(A3)=(.6)($2,400)+(.4)($1,000) =$1,600
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Opportunity Loss
Opportunity Loss or Regret is the
loss because the exact state of
nature is not known at the time a
decision is made.
The opportunity loss is computed by taking
the difference between the optimal decision
for each state of nature and the other
decision alternatives.
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Expected Opportunity Loss
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Opportunity Loss - Example
Opportunity Loss when
Market Rises
Kayser:
$2,400 - $2,400= $0
Rim Homes:
$2,400 - $2,200 = $200
Texas Electronics:
$2,400 - $1,900 = $500
Opportunity Loss when
Market Declines
Kayser:
$1,150 - $1,000= $150
Rim Homes:
$1,150 - $1,100 = $50
Texas Electronics:
$1,150 - $1,150 = $0
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Expected Opportunity Loss
(A1)=(.6)($0)+(.4)($150) =$60
(A2)=(.6)($200)+(.4)($50) =$140
(A3)=(.6)($500)+(.4)($0) =$300
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Maximin, Maximax, and
Minimax Regret Strategies
Maximin Maximax
1,000 2,400
1,100 2,200
1,150 1,900
Minimax
Regret
150
200
500
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Maximin, Maximax, and
Minimax Regret Strategies
Maximin strategy maximizes the minimum gain. It is a
pessimistic strategy.
Maximax strategy maximizes the maximum gain.
Opposite of a maximin approach, it is an optimistic
strategy
Minimax regret strategy minimizes the maximum
regret (opportunity loss). This is another pessimistic
strategy
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Value of Perfect Information
What is the worth of information known in
advance before a strategy is
employed?
Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)
is the difference between the expected
payoff if the state of nature were known and
the optimal decision under the conditions of
uncertainty.
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EVPI Example
Expected Value Under Certainty
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EVPI Example
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Sensitivity Analysis and Decision Trees
Sensitivity Analysis examines the effects of
various probabilities for the states of nature
on the expected values for the decision
alternatives.
Decision Trees are useful for structuring the
various alternatives. They present a picture
of the various courses of action and the
possible states of nature.
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Decision Tree
A decision tree is a picture of all the possible
courses of action and the consequent
possible outcomes.
– A box is used to indicate the point at which a
decision must be made,
– The branches going out from the box indicate the
alternatives under consideration
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End of Chapter 20
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