Geography 312
(Natural Hazards)
Instructor:
Ian Hutchinson (RCB7226)
ph: 778-782-3232
email: [email protected]
TAs: Elizabeth Baird & Andrew Perkins
Geography 312 - Lecture 1
Course outline
- schedule, lectures, assignments,
- text, grades
Term project
Course themes
Lecture schedule
The course schedule and all the Powerpoint
lecture slides are available on the web. Go to:
http://www.sfu.ca/~ianh/geog312/
Thumbnail versions are available for purchase.
The lectures are NOT taped.
Tutorials/Assignments
To preview the assignments go to the course web
site. Printed versions of each assignment will be
handed out prior to each tutorial.
Suggested readings for each tutorial are available
on the web site as pdfs
Tutorial grades are based on participation in
workshops and discussion groups. Assignments are
for educational purposes; they are not graded.
Text, Grading.
Text - Keller, E.A., Blodgett, R.H. & Clague, J.J.
2008. Natural Hazards. Pearson Canada
Grading
Tutorial participation: 20%
Term project 30%
Midterm exam 20%
Final exam 30%*
Term project
Choose a topic (check with TA);
Keep a journal (notes, lists of
sources, etc.);
Prepare a poster in Powerpoint;
Copy the poster to a CD (along with
your journal)
The concept of natural hazards
Definition:
Events associated with normal*
geophysical and biological processes
that cause death, injury or loss of
home, property or income.
* the intensity of the hazard may be influenced by
human modifications of the landscape (e.g.
deforestation and urbanization influence flood
frequency and magnitudes) or climate (e.g. heat
waves in urban areas).
Source: Emmanuelle Bournay; UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Concept of hazard thresholds [ ]
(e.g. fatalities/damage per earthquake)
1000
Damage ($M)
10000
1000
Deaths
100
100
10
10
1 1
1 10
Earthquake magnitude
Natural Hazards
From the preceding it follows that:
Natural hazards are associated with
extreme events in the normal operation of
the planets geological, hydrological and
ecological systems.
Natural hazards are limited to inhabited
areas (i.e. vulnerable settlements or
economic infrastructure).
Concept of vulnerability
(e.g. fatalities in two contrasting societies)
1000
?
Deaths
100
an
?
nia
Ir
or
,
ru
li f
Pe
10
Ca
.
e.g
.
e.g
1
1 10
Earthquake magnitude
The concept of risk
RISK = HAZARD X VULNERABILITY
Hazard = natural processes capable of causing
death and/or destruction;
Vulnerability = social or economic sensitivity to
the effects of hazards
Calculating risk
Example 1: same hazard; contrasting vulnerabilities
Magnitude 6.5 earthquake in south-central California,
on Dec. 22, 2003: 7 dead, ~50 injured because
the event occurred in a thinly inhabited area
(low risk event)
Magnitude 6.5 earthquake in city of Bam (Iran)
on Dec. 26, 2003: ~40,000 dead, ~30,000 injured;
much of the city destroyed (very high risk event)
Calculating risk
Example 2: contrasting hazards; same risk
Severe snowfall in the Lower Mainland
Annual risk ($) = Pblizzard X Cost*
= 0.1 X $10 M? = $1 M
Tunguska asteroid impact in the Lower Mainland
Annual risk ($) = Pimpact X Cost*
= 0.000001 X $100 G? = $1 M?
*Costs = deaths, injuries, building collapse, rescue, cleanup, lost
production, rebuilding, etc.;
(often very difficult to assign a dollar value).
Combating risk: the five steps
Assess: characterize the hazard regime;
Pre-
Mitigate: reduce vulnerability;
Prepare: educate; warn; evacuate;
Effectiveness
Time
Respond: remove bodies, locate and treat
survivors, destroy unstable structures;
Recover: rebuild communities and
Post-
infrastructure
Combating risk: roles
Assessment: natural and social scientists,
(GEOG 312)
Mitigation: engineers, etc.
Preparation: emergency managers, etc.
Initial Response: medics, etc.
Recovery: planners, etc.
Assessment: types of risk
physical = living in a hazardous area
personal = your age/gender/education influences
your risk
economic = poverty reduces your options
structural = poor quality buildings and lifelines
political = limited access to information and/or
resources
institutional - your local, state or national
government does not enforce regulations
all of these may apply!
Hazard assessment
Natural scientists analyse
the physical risks:
Environmental processes
Causes and Recurrence Magnitude-frequency
precursors relations
Forecasting and
mitigation
Assessing individual hazards:
e.g. hurricanes in Atlantic Canada
Damage resulting from the high winds and heavy rain of Hurricane Juan
in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Sept. - Oct. 2003
QuickTime and a QuickTime and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture.
Photos: CBC News archives
Hazard assessment: causes
Hurricane
Juan, Sept.
28, 2003. QuickTime and a
Juan was an TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
exceptional
storm. Why did
it track directly
northward?
Hazard assessment: magnitude
Juan was
forecast to
reach Nova
Scotia as a 65-
to 70-knot
hurricane, but QuickTime and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
intensified to are needed to see this picture.
85 knots (a
category 2
hurricane).
Why?
Answer at: http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/juan/intensity_e.html
Hazard assessment: recurrence
Halifax last suffered a direct hurricane strike in 1893.
Do hurricanes in the Atlantic provinces therefore recur
about once every 100 years on average?
Sources of information:
Instrumental records (~100 yr record)
Explorers logs, settlers diaries (~400 yr record?)
Micmac oral traditions (?)
Biological evidence (e.g. downed trees; several
centuries?)
Geological evidence (e.g. overwash deposits; several
millennia?)
Hazard assessment:
will the future differ from the past?
Tropical storms and hurricanes in the NW Atlantic
QuickTime and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Graph: Munich Re, 2004
Hazard assessment:
focusing on place, not process
Case studies of individual hazards do
not reveal the hazardousness of a
particular place
multiple risks in any area
risk assessment must integrate all of
these
= local geography of danger
A geography of danger for Halifax,
Nova Scotia might look like this:
High risk
blizzards and ice storms
extreme temperatures
fogs
droughts
pests and diseases
hurricanes
Low risk tsunamis
Towards a global geography of danger:
the complexity of the task
20% of Earths land surface exposed to
severe hazards;
>30% of North American population live
in hazard-prone areas;
Many areas (e.g. Indonesia, Taiwan,
Guatemala) exposed to multiple severe
hazards.
Eruptions
N.B. excludes epidemics
A global geography of
danger: natural QuickTime and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
catastrophes [2005-7]
2005
QuickTime and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
2006
Earthquakes, eruptions
Storms
Droughts, wildfires QuickTime and a
Floods TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
urce: Munich Re Annual Reports 2007
A geography of danger:
natural hazard fatalities [1991-
2005]
Asia Asia
Americas Americas
Europe Europe
Africa Africa
Oceania Oceania
0 20 40 60 0 5 10 15
Annual number of deaths (thousands) Mortality rate / M pop
Data: EM-Dat
A geography of danger: the
known
(e.g. Indonesia [data 1907-2004])
quake
cyclone landslide drought
volcano
flood
Source: Center for Hazards and Risk Research, Columbia University
And the unexpected!
2004/12
2005/03
Tsunamis
2006/07
the global analysis undertaken in these projects is
clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the
availability and quality of data.
Arthur Lerner-Lam (Columbia U.)
Nimble systems:
anticipating unexpected hazards
On January 17, 1994, the costliest
earthquake in the history of the United
States struck the Los Angeles region, killing
57 people, leaving 20,000 homeless, and
causing more than $20 billion in damage to
homes, public buildings, freeways, and
bridges. This magnitude 6.7 quake occurred
10 miles beneath the town of Northridge on
a previously unknown ramp-like
("thrust") fault not visible at the Earth's
surface.
USGS Fact-Sheet 110-99
ALL the earthquakes in California in
the 1990s occurred on previously
unknown faults!
Assessing
vulnerabilty
Source:
The Economist
(February 7, 2004)
Vulnerability assessment
Social scientists analyze
the vulnerability matrix
Environmental processes
Perception Social impacts Disaster response
Mitigation and
education
Investigating personal
vulnerability: perception
London, Ontario
Hewitt & Burton (1974)
Investigating personal vulnerability:
fatalities by age
25 0.4
0-14
0-19
20 15-49 Age group
50+
0.3 20-59
>60
15
0.2
10
0.1
0
0
Aceh (2004) Bangladesh (1991)
New Orleans
Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal
tsunami storm surge Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Investigating personal vulnerability:
fatalities by gender
WHY?
2.5
differing strength?
ratio of female:male deaths
stamina? cultural
2 behaviours? (e.g. taboos -
swimming? climbing trees?)
1.5
1 equality
However, the female
0.5 fatality rate during
Hurricane Katrina was only
0 slighter higher (4%) than
Banda Aceh AcehEast Tamil that of the male
Aceh Barat Nadu
population, and this was
Sumatra India likely a product of the
greater number of women
Data from Indian Ocean tsunami in the over-60s age group.
(2004)
Investigating economic vulnerability
Deaths from typhoons (1980-88)
# deat hs deat hs/
event
254 23
4322 196
10733 1341
wealth = greater preparedness
Investigating
economic vulnerability
(Hurricane Charley, Fla., 2004;
Hurricane Katrina, La., 2005)
QuickTime and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
(Photo: Associated Press)
are needed to see this picture.
poverty = greater exposure to risk;
wealth = greater preparedness & more flexible response?
100000
Deaths
Damage (US$M; 1992 $)
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Damage (US$M;
10000 1992 $))
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Deaths)
Changing
1000
patterns of
vulnerability
in the
developed
100
world
10
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Structural-institutional vulnerability
(e.g. Marmara earthquake, Turkey, 1999)
~17,000 dead; 15% of buildings collapsed near epicentre (CA
code but ~70% illegal - amnesty for illegal buildings; little
professional liability; corruption ubiquitous; widespread on-
site modifications, e.g. extra floors, of approved buildings);
communications cut off; nationwide power outage; failure
of political leadership.
Photos: Damaged buildings in the vicinity of Glck
Investigating personal responses:
flight or fight?
Reactions to the Okanagan Mountain Park fire of
August, 2003
KR (aged 35) said hed
KR (aged 22) said
rebuild in an instant.
that shed never
His familys home was
build in a forest
razed. It was a fluke
again after her Kettle
If you live on the
Valley home was
ocean and a tidal wave
reduced to ash
comes, theyd say we
Quoted in The Province, shouldnt live on the
Aug. 25, 2003 (p. A5) ocean.
Investigating the agencies:
(e.g. post-Hurricane Katrina)
were the evacuation orders
effective?
were rescue efforts well-organized?
did everyone in need find the
shelters or aid centres?
was aid distribution effective?
Post-disaster recovery?
(Hurricane Katrina )
2006:
population of New Orleans ~ 50% of that prior to hurricane; 45% fewer
hospital beds; ~1/3 of schools still shut;
Rents increased by 40% in one year because of housing shortage;
suicide rate in city quadrupled; almost 90% of refugees in Houston
still unemployed;
Port of NO (#1 port in US) operating at less than 50% capacity 3
months after hurricane.
August 2008 survey of residents of New Orleans:
55% feel that there has been little or no progress in rebuilding
neighborhoods.
59% feel that there has been little or no progress in making medical
facilities and services more available.
72% said federal recovery money has been "mostly misspent."
58% said NO had a very serious" problem with political corruption.
84% face continuing health problems, and 65% reported some sort of
chronic condition or disability, up from 45% in 2006.
Increasing global vulnerability?
700
600 Losses from natural disasters
500
US $ G
400
300
200
100
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
(Data: Munich Re, 2001)
Source: Emmanuelle Bournay; UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Information and perception
(reported volcanic eruptions, 1860-1980)
Has there been an overall increase in activity?
GEOG 312
Blessings?
nat.haz information
Your command of
Personal vulnerability?
- residence, workplace
Career path?
- community vulnerability
Empathy?
- global vulnerability
1 . 13 ..
week
How horrible it is to have so many people killed!
And what a blessing that one cares for none of
them!
Jane Austen writing to her sister on news of the Peninsular War (May 13, 181
