Simulation and Modelling MIS 7102

Introduction to Simulation & Modelling

Week 1
By Agnes Rwashana Semwanga
[email protected]
Friday 6.00p.m.- 9.00p.m.
Faculty of Technology Room 143

Core for

MIS - Computer Information Systems (CIS) option

Elective for

MIS Management Information System (MIS) option

MIS Information System management (ISM)
MIS Internet and Database System (IDS)
MSC Computer Science

Course schedule

Week 1 : Introduction to Simulation & Modelling

Week 2 : Introduction to System Dynamics
Week 3 : Systems thinking and Causal Loop Diagramming
Week 4 : System Archetypes + Assignment for Class Presentation
Week 5 : Assignment / Test 1
Week 6 : Causal Loop Diagrams with Vensim

Discrete Event Simulation by Guest Lecturer : Mr. John Ngubiri (next 3 weeks 1 hr [8-9])

Week 7 : Graphical Integration

Week 8 : Feedback Structures
Week 9-11 : Class Presentations - Assignment 3
Week 12 : Assignment / Test 2
Week 13 : Model Testing & Validation
Week 14 : Stock and Flow with STELLA software - Practice
Week 15 : Preparation for Exams

References

Senge Peter (2003). The Fifth Discipline.

Steward Robinson (2004). Simulation. The Practice of Model
Development and Use. John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
Goodman Michael R. (1989) Study Notes in System Dynamics
Pid, M., (1992) Computer Simulation in Management Science, 3Ed John
Wiley, Chichester

Simulation Is

Simulation Definition : An imitation of a system. Imitation

implies mimicking or copying something else.
very broad term methods and applications to imitate or mimic
real systems, usually via computer
Applies in many fields and industries
Very popular and powerful method
Static simulation imitates a system at a point in time
Dynamic simulation imitates a system as it progresses
through time e.g movement of trains
Computer based dynamic simulation an imitation (on a
computer) of a system as it progresses through time.

Illustration(Descriptive Performance Analysis)

Simulation
vs.
Real World

Typical Uses of Simulation

Estimating a set of productivity measures in production systems,

inventory systems, manufacturing processes, materials handling and
logistics operations.
Designing and planning the capacity of computer systems and
communication networks so as to minimize response times.
Conducting war games to train military personnel or to evaluate the
efficacy of proposed military operations
Evaluating and improving maritime port operations, such as container
ports or bulk-material marine terminals (coal, oil or minerals), so as to
find ways of reducing vessel port times.
Improving health care operations, financial and banking operations,
transportation systems and airports, among many others.

Use of Simulation Modelling

Simulation is one of the most powerful management
science/operation research tools applied to solve real problems.
The modelling itself leads to greater insight into the Corporate
investments appraisal.
Involves the construction of a model of the problem domain
which involves learning through experiments and then permits
testing alternative scenarios using what if ..? analysis.

Simulation in Business Modelling

The essence of Modelling is that a manager makes decisions in

advance of the real product, services or process being created.

Simulation is one of the most fundamental approach to decision
making.
A tool to gain insights and explore possibilities through the
formalised (situation) involved in using simulation models.
Simulation explores the consequences of decision making
rather than directly advising on the decision itself - it is a
predictive rather than an optimising technique.
Currently there are many tools both simulation language and
packages that could be used for exploring the impacts of
different decisions.

Systems

System a collection of parts organized for some purpose

(Coyle, 1996).
Checkland (1981) identifies 4 main classes of systems :

Natural system origins lie in the origins of the universe eg. Atom
Designed physical systems physical systems that are a result of
human design e.g house, car
Designed abstract systems abstract systems that are a result of
human design e.g. mathematics and literature
Human activity systems systems of human activity that are
consciously or unconsciously ordered. e.g. Family, city , political
system.

Why simulate ? The Nature of operations

Systems

Variability - many operation systems are subject to variability.

Some are predictable e.g. changing number of operators in a
call centre during the day to meet the changing call volumes
and others are unpredictable e.g arrival rate of patients at
hospital emergency.
Interconnectedness components of the system do not work
in isolation but affect one another. It is difficult to predict the
effect of the interconnections. e.g customers who have to pass
through various interconnected stages
Complexity many operations systems are complex,
interconnections and combinations between the components of
the system.

The Advantages of Simulation

Some of the reasons why simulation is preferable to direct experimentation :
Cost Experimentation with real system is likely to be costly.
It is expensive to interrupt day to day operations to try out new ideas
If alterations cause operations performance to worsen- loss of customer
satisfaction
Time Time consuming to experiment with the real system and this may
take many weeks and months before a true reflection is obtained.
Control of experimental conditions It is useful to control the conditions
under which the experiment is being done. e.g. it is not easy to control the
arrival of patients at a hospital
The real system does not exist. The real system may not exist.
Flexibility to model things as they are (even if messy and complicated)

Disadvantages of Simulation
Some of the problems associated with using simulation
Expensive simulation software is not necessarily cheap and
cost of model development and use may be considerable.
Time consuming simulation is a time consuming approach
Data hungry most simulations require significant amount of
data
Requires expertise requires skills in conceptual modelling,
validation and statistics.

Applications for which Simulation might be used

Manufacturing systems
Public systems, health care, military, natural resources
Transportation systems
Construction systems
Restaurant and entertainment systems
Business process reengineering / management
Food processing
Computer system performance

Models

Model set of assumptions/approximations about how the

system works

Study the model instead of the real system usually much easier,
faster, cheaper, safer
Can try wide-ranging ideas with the model

Make your mistakes on the computer where they dont count, rather than for
real where they do count

Often, just building the model is instructive regardless of results

Model validity (any kind of model not just simulation)

Care in building to mimic reality faithfully

Level of detail
Get same conclusions from the model as you would from system
More in Chapter 12

Types of Models

Physical (iconic) models

Mock-ups of fast-food restaurants

Hospital scheduling
Operating room scheduling
Flight simulators

Logical (mathematical) models

Approximations and assumptions about a systems operation

Often represented via computer program in appropriate software
Exercise the program to try things, get results, learn about model
behavior

Model Classification

Physical (prototypes)

Analytical (mathematical)
Computer
(Monte Carlo Simulation)

Descriptive (performance
analysis)

Prescriptive (optimization)

Physical
(Prototypes)

Analytical
(Mathematical)

Single Stage Queuing Model

n P( N n)
1

L W

Wq W

2
Lq Wq

Computer

(Monte Carlo Simulation)

Monte Carlo simulation is a spreadsheet simulation, which

randomly generates values for uncertain variables over
and over to simulate a model.

Prescriptive
(Optimization)

Studying Logical Models

If model is simple enough, use traditional mathematical

analysis get exact results, lots of insight into model

But complex systems can seldom be validly represented by a

simple analytic model

Queueing theory
Differential equations
Linear programming

Danger of over-simplifying assumptions model validity?

Often, a complex system requires a complex model, and

analytical methods dont apply what to do?

Computer Simulation

Broadly interpreted, computer simulation refers to methods for

studying a wide variety of models of systems

Numerically evaluate on a computer

Use software to imitate the systems operations and characteristics,
often over time

Can be used to study simple models but should not use it if an

analytical solution is available
Real power of simulation is in studying complex models
Simulation can tolerate complex models since we dont even
aspire to an analytical solution

Different Kinds of Simulation

Static vs. Dynamic

Continuous-change vs. Discrete-change

Can the state change continuously or only at discrete points in

time?

Deterministic vs. Stochastic

Does time have a role in the model?

Is everything for sure or is there uncertainty?

Most operational models:

Dynamic, Discrete-change, Stochastic

Using Computers to Simulate

General-purpose languages (FORTRAN)

Support packages

Tedious, low-level, error-prone

But, almost complete flexibility
Subroutines for list processing, bookkeeping, time advance
Widely distributed, widely modified

Spreadsheets

Usually static models

Financial scenarios, distribution sampling, SQC

Using Computers to Simulate (contd.)

Simulation languages

GPSS, SIMSCRIPT, SLAM, SIMAN

Popular, still in use
Learning curve for features, effective use, syntax

High-level simulators

Very easy, graphical interface

Domain-restricted (manufacturing, communications)
Limited flexibility model validity?

The System:
A Simple Processing System
Machine
(Server)
Arriving
Blank Parts

Queue (FIFO)

General intent:

Departing
Finished Parts
Part in Service

Estimate expected production

Waiting time in queue, queue length, proportion of time
machine is busy

Time units

Can use different units in different places must declare

Be careful to check the units when specifying inputs
Declare base time units for internal calculations, outputs
Be reasonable (interpretation, roundoff error)

Model Specifics

Initially (time 0) empty and idle

Base time units: minutes
Input data (assume given for now ), in minutes:
Part Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
.
.

Arrival Time
0.00
1.73
3.08
3.79
4.41
18.69
19.39
34.91
38.06
39.82
40.82
.
.

Interarrival Time
1.73
1.35
0.71
0.62
14.28
0.70
15.52
3.15
1.76
1.00
.
.
.

Service Time
2.90
1.76
3.39
4.52
4.46
4.36
2.07
3.36
2.37
5.38
.
.
.

Stop when 20 minutes of (simulated) time have passed

Goals of the Study:

Output Performance Measures

Total production of parts over the run (P)

Average waiting time of parts in queue:
N

WQi

i 1

N = no. of parts completing queue wait

WQi = waiting time in queue of ith part
Know: WQ1 = 0 (why?)
N > 1 (why?)

MaximumWQ
waiting time of parts in queue:
max
i
i 1,...,N

Goals of the Study:

Output Performance Measures (contd.)

Time-average number of parts in queue:

20
0 Q(t ) dt

Q(t) = number of parts in queue

at time t
20
max Q (t )
Maximum number of parts in queue:
0t 20
Average and maximum total time in system of parts (a.k.a. cycle
time):
P

TSi

i 1

max TSi

i 1,...,P

TSi = time in system of part i

Goals of the Study:

Output Performance Measures (contd.)

Utilization of the machine (proportion of time busy)

20
0 B(t ) dt

20

1 if the machine is busy at time t

B(t )
0 if the machine is idle at time t

Many others possible (information overload?)

Pieces of a Simulation Model

Entities

Players that move around, change status, affect and are affected by
other entities
Dynamic objects get created, move around, leave (maybe)
Usually represent real things

Can have fake entities for modeling tricks

Our model: entities are the parts

Breakdown demon, break angel

Usually have multiple realizations floating around

Can have different types of entities concurrently
Usually, identifying the types of entities is the first thing to do in building a
model

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Attributes

Characteristic of all entities: describe, differentiate

All entities have same attribute slots but different values for different
entities, for example:

Time of arrival
Due date
Priority
Color

Attribute value tied to a specific entity

Like local (to entities) variables
Some automatic in Arena, some you define

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

(Global) Variables

Reflects a characteristic of the whole model, not of specific entities

Used for many different kinds of things

Travel time between all station pairs

Number of parts in system
Simulation clock (built-in Arena variable)

Name, value of which theres only one copy for the whole model
Not tied to entities
Entities can access, change variables
Writing on the wall
Some built-in by Arena, you can define others

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Resources

What entities compete for

Entity seizes a resource, uses it, releases it

Think of a resource being assigned to an entity, rather than an entity
belonging to a resource
A resource can have several units of capacity

People
Equipment
Space

Seats at a table in a restaurant

Identical ticketing agents at an airline counter

Number of units of resource can be changed during the simulation

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Queues

Place for entities to wait when they cant move on (maybe since the
resource they want to seize is not available)
Have names, often tied to a corresponding resource
Can have a finite capacity to model limited space have to model what
to do if an entity shows up to a queue thats already full
Usually watch the length of a queue, waiting time in it

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Statistical accumulators

Variables that watch whats happening

Depend on output performance measures desired
Passive in model dont participate, just watch
Many are automatic in Arena, but some you may have to set up and
maintain during the simulation
At end of simulation, used to compute final output performance
measures

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Statistical accumulators for the simple processing system

Number of parts produced so far

Total of the waiting times spent in queue so far
No. of parts that have gone through the queue
Max time in queue weve seen so far
Total of times spent in system
Max time in system weve seen so far
Area so far under queue-length curve Q(t)
Max of Q(t) so far
Area so far under server-busy curve B(t)

Simulation Dynamics:
The Event-Scheduling World View
Identify characteristic events
Decide on logic for each type of event to

Effect state changes for each event type

Observe statistics
Update times of future events (maybe of this type, other types)

Keep a simulation clock, future event calendar

Jump from one event to the next, process, observe statistics,

update event calendar

Must specify an appropriate stopping rule
Usually done with general-purpose programming language (C,
FORTRAN, etc.)

Events for the

Simple Processing System

Arrival of a new part to the system

Update time-persistent statistical accumulators (from last event to now)

Mark arriving part with current time (use later)

If machine is idle:

Start processing (schedule departure), Make machine busy, Tally waiting time in
queue (0)

Else (machine is busy):

Area under Q(t)

Max of Q(t)
Area under B(t)

Put part at end of queue, increase queue-length variable

Schedule the next arrival event

Events for the

Simple Processing System (contd.)

Departure (when a service is completed)

Increment number-produced stat accumulator

Compute & tally time in system (now - time of arrival)
Update time-persistent statistics (as in arrival event)
If queue is non-empty:

Take first part out of queue, compute & tally its waiting time in queue, begin service
(schedule departure event)

Else (queue is empty):

Make the machine idle (Note: there will be no departure event scheduled on the
future events calendar, which is as desired)

Events for the

Simple Processing System (contd.)

The End

Update time-persistent statistics (to end of the simulation)

Compute final output performance measures using current (= final)
values of statistical accumulators

After each event, the event calendars top record is removed to

see what time it is, what to do
Also must initialize everything

Simulation by Hand:
Setup
System

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
custs. in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Event calendar

Area under
B(t)

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 0.00, Initialize
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
0

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

0.00

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[1, 0.00,
Arr]
<empty> [, 20.00,
End]

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Area under
B(t)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 0.00, Arrival of Part 1
System

1
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
1

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[2, 1.73,
Arr]
<empty> [1, 2.90,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 1.73, Arrival of Part 2
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
1

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[1, 2.90,
Dep]
(1.73) [3, 3.08,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

1.73

0.00

0.00

1.73

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 2.90, Departure of Part 1
System

2
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[3, 3.08,
Arr]
<empty> [2, 4.66,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

2.90

1.17

1.17

2.90

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 3.08, Arrival of Part 3
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[4, 3.79,
Arr]
(3.08) [2, 4.66,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

3.08

1.17

1.17

3.08

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 3.79, Arrival of Part 4
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[5, 4.41,
Arr]
(3.79, 3.08) [2, 4.66,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

3.79

1.17

1.88

3.79

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 4.41, Arrival of Part 5
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[2, 4.66,
Dep]
(4.41, 3.79, 3.08) [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

4.41

1.17

3.12

4.41

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 4.66, Departure of Part 2
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
3

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[3, 8.05,
Dep]
(4.41, 3.79) [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

4.66

2.75

3.87

4.66

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 8.05, Departure of Part 3
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
4

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[4, 12.57,
Dep]
(4.41) [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

8.05

7.01

10.65

8.05

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 12.57, Departure of Part 4
System

5
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
5

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

12.57

Arrival times of
custs. in queue

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

15.17

15.17

Event calendar
[5, 17.03,
Dep]
() [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
B(t)
12.57

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 17.03, Departure of Part 5
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
5

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

17.03

Arrival times of
custs. in queue
()

Event calendar
[6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Area under
B(t)

15.17

15.17

17.03

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 18.69, Arrival of Part 6
System

6
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
6

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

18.69

Arrival times of
custs. in queue
()

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Event calendar
[7, 19.39,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
[6, 23.05,
Dep]
Area under
B(t)

15.17

15.17

17.03

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 19.39, Arrival of Part 7
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
6

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[, 20.00,
End]
(19.39) [6, 23.05,
Dep]
[8, 34.91,
Arr]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

19.39

15.17

15.17

17.73

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 20.00, The End
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
6

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

20.00

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[6, 23.05,
Dep]
(19.39) [8, 34.91,
Arr]

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Area under
B(t)

15.17

15.78

18.34

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
Finishing Up

Average waiting time in queue:

Total of times in queue 15.17

2.53 minutes per part

No. of times in queue
6

Time-average number in queue:

Area under Q(t ) curve 15.78

0.79 part
Final clock value
20

Utilization
of drillBpress:
Area under
(t ) curve 18.34

0.92 (dimension less)

Final clock value
20

Comparing Alternatives

Usually, simulation is used for more than just a single model

configuration
Often want to compare alternatives, select or search for the best
(via some criterion)
Simple processing system: What would happen if the arrival rate
were to double?

Cut interarrival times in half

Rerun the model for double-time arrivals

Overview of a Simulation Study

Understand the system

Be clear about the goals
Formulate the model representation
Translate into modeling software
Verify program
Validate model
Design experiments
Make runs
Analyze, get insight, document results

Review Questions

Explain the following concepts, giving examples of the different

types of each :

Simulation
Models
Systems

Explain the advantages and disadvantages using simulation

Using a bank system or supermarket, identify the elements of
variability, interconnectedness and complexity
Using examples of systems on Slide 10, clearly outline what
aspects make simulation appropriate for at least 3 situations