Chapter
7
International Arbitrage And
Interest Rate Parity
South-Western/Thomson Learning 2006
Chapter Objectives
To explain the conditions that will
result
in various forms of international arbitrage,
along with the realignments that will occur
in response; and
To explain the concept of interest rate
parity, and how it prevents arbitrage
opportunities.
7-2
International Arbitrage
Arbitrage can be loosely defined as
capitalizing on a discrepancy in quoted
prices to make a riskless profit.
The effect of arbitrage on demand and
supply is to cause prices to realign, such
that no further risk-free profits can be
made.
7-3
International Arbitrage
As applied to foreign exchange and
international money markets, arbitrage
takes three common forms:
locational arbitrage
triangular arbitrage
covered interest arbitrage
7-4
Locational Arbitrage
Locational arbitrage is possible when a
banks buying price (bid price) is higher
than another banks selling price (ask price)
for the same currency.
Example
Bank C Bid Ask
NZ$
$.635 $.640
Bank D Bid Ask
NZ$ $.645 $.650
Buy NZ$ from Bank C @ $.640, and sell it to
Bank D @ $.645. Profit = $.005/NZ$.
7-5
Triangular Arbitrage
Triangular arbitrage is possible when a
cross exchange rate quote differs from the
rate calculated from spot rate quotes.
Example
British pound ()
Malaysian ringgit (MYR)
British pound ()
Bid
Ask
$1.60
$.200
MYR8.10
$1.61
$.202
MYR8.20
MYR8.10/ $.200/MYR = $1.62/
Buy @ $1.61, convert @ MYR8.10/, then
sell MYR @ $.200. Profit = $.01/.
7-6
Triangular Arbitrage
US$
Value of
in $
Value of
MYR in $
Value of
in MYR
MYR
When the actual and calculated cross
exchange rates differ, triangular arbitrage
will force them back into equilibrium.
7-7
Covered Interest Arbitrage
Covered interest arbitrage is the process
of capitalizing on the interest rate
differential between two countries while
covering for exchange rate risk.
Covered interest arbitrage tends to force a
relationship between forward rate
premiums and interest rate differentials.
7-8
Covered Interest Arbitrage
Example
spot rate = 90-day forward rate = $1.60
U.S. 90-day interest rate = 2%
U.K. 90-day interest rate = 4%
Borrow $ at 3%, or use existing funds which
are earning interest at 2%. Convert $ to at
$1.60/ and engage in a 90-day forward
contract to sell at $1.60/. Lend at 4%.
Note: Profits are not achieved instantaneously.
7-9
Comparing Arbitrage Strategies
Locational : Capitalizes on discrepancies in
Arbitrage exchange rates across locations.
$/ quote
by Bank X
$/ quote
by Bank Y
7 - 10
Comparing Arbitrage Strategies
Triangular : Capitalizes on discrepancies in
Arbitrage cross exchange rates.
/ quote
by Bank A
$/ quote
by Bank B
$/ quote
by Bank C
7 - 11
Comparing Arbitrage Strategies
Covered
Capitalizes on discrepancies
Interest : between the forward rate and the
Arbitrage interest rate differential.
Forward rate
of quoted in
dollars
Differential
between U.S.
and British
interest rates
7 - 12
Comparing Arbitrage Strategies
Any discrepancy will trigger arbitrage,
which will then eliminate the discrepancy,
thus making the foreign exchange market
more orderly.
7 - 13
Interest Rate Parity (IRP)
As a result of market forces, the forward
rate differs from the spot rate by an
amount that sufficiently offsets the
interest rate differential between two
currencies.
Then, covered interest arbitrage is no
longer feasible, and the equilibrium state
achieved is referred to as interest rate
parity (IRP).
7 - 14
Derivation of IRP
When IRP exists, the rate of return
achieved from covered interest arbitrage
should equal the rate of return available in
the home country.
End-value of a $1 investment in covered
interest arbitrage = (1/S) (1+iF) F
= (1/S) (1+iF) [S (1+p)]
= (1+iF) (1+p)
where p is the forward premium.
7 - 15
Derivation of IRP
End-value of a $1 investment in the home
country = 1 + iH
Equating the two and rearranging terms:
p = (1+iH) 1
(1+iF)
i.e.
forward = (1 + home interest rate) 1
premium
(1 + foreign interest rate)
7 - 16
Determining the Forward Premium
Example
Suppose 6-month ipeso = 6%, i$ = 5%.
From the U.S. investors perspective,
forward premium = 1.05/1.06 1 - .0094
If S = $.10/peso, then
6-month forward rate = S (1 + p)
.10 (1 _ .0094)
$.09906/peso
7 - 17
Determining the Forward Premium
The IRP relationship can be rewritten as
follows:
F S = S(1+p) S = p = (1+iH) 1 = (iHiF)
S
(1+iF)
(1+iF)
The approximated form, p iH iF,
provides a reasonable estimate when the
interest rate differential is small.
7 - 18
Graphic Analysis of Interest Rate Parity
Interest Rate Differential (%)
home interest rate foreign interest rate
4
IRP line
Z
2
B
Forward
Discount (%)
-3
Y
-1
X
3 Forward
Premium (%)
-2
W
-4
7 - 19
Graphic Analysis of Interest Rate Parity
Interest Rate Differential (%)
home interest rate foreign interest rate
4
Zone of potential
covered interest
IRP line
arbitrage by
foreign investors 2
Forward
Discount (%)
-3
-1
1
-2
-4
3 Forward
Premium (%)
Zone of potential
covered interest
arbitrage by
local investors
7 - 20
Test for the Existence of IRP
To test whether IRP exists, collect actual
interest rate differentials and forward
premiums for various currencies, and plot
them on a graph.
IRP holds when covered interest arbitrage
is not possible or worthwhile.
7 - 21
Interpretation of IRP
When IRP exists, it does not mean that
both local and foreign investors will earn
the same returns.
What it means is that investors cannot use
covered interest arbitrage to achieve
higher returns than those achievable in
their respective home countries.
7 - 22
Does IRP Hold?
Forward Rate
Premiums and
Interest Rate
Differentials for
Seven Currencies
7 - 23
Does IRP Hold?
Various empirical studies indicate that IRP
generally holds.
While there are deviations from IRP, they
are often not large enough to make
covered interest arbitrage worthwhile.
This is due to the characteristics of foreign
investments, such as transaction costs,
political risk, and differential tax laws.
7 - 24
Considerations When Assessing IRP
Transaction Costs
iH iF
Zone of potential
covered interest
arbitrage by
foreign investors
Zone where
covered interest
arbitrage is not
feasible due to
transaction costs
IRP line
Zone of
potential
covered
interest
arbitrage
by local
investors
7 - 25
Considerations When Assessing IRP
Political Risk
A crisis in a country could cause its
government to restrict any exchange of the
local currency for other currencies.
Investors may also perceive a higher
default risk on foreign investments.
Differential Tax Laws
If tax laws vary, after-tax returns should be
considered instead of before-tax returns.
7 - 26
Annualized interest rate
8%
8%
Changes in Forward Premiums
6%
6%
i Euros interest rate
4%
4%
i$
2%
2%
U.S. interest rate
0%
0%
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
i
>
i
2000
2001
$
2%
i$ i
Q1
Q3
Q3
Q1
2002
Q1
Q3
Q3
Q1
Q1
Q3
2003
Q3
Q1
i$ = i
0%
i $ < i
Forward premium of
-2%
Q3
Q1
premium
2001
2%2000
Q3
Q1
2002
Q3
Q1
2003
Q3
Q1
Q3
0%
discount
-2%
Q3
Q1
2000
2001
Q3
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
7 - 27
