Why statistics?
Estimated that there is a shortage of 140,000
190,000 people with deep analytical skills to fill
the demand of jobs in the U.S. by 2018
IBM has invested over $20 billion since 2005 to
grow its analytics business
Critical in almost every industry Healthcare,
media, sports, finance, government, etc
Why probability?
What is statistics?
The science of using data to build models that lead
to better decisions that add value to individuals,
to companies, to institutions.
Basic probability
Objectives
Be able to define probability
Be able to define sample space, sample points and evnet
Be able to determine the subsets of sample space
Be able to calculate probability of different events
Probability is how likely
something is to happen.
Example1. Flipping a coin
There
are two possible outcomes: Heads or Tails
Whats the probability of the coin landing on Heads?
Group work. Rolling dice
How many outcomes are there?
Whats the probability of rolling a1?
Whats the probability of rolling a 1 or 6?
Whats the probability of rolling an even number?
Important notes
The probability of an event can only be between 0 and 1
(and can also be written as a percentage)
Probability is Just a Guide
Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it
is just a guide
Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will
come up?
Probability says that heads have achance, so we
canexpect 50 Heads.
Butwhen we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or
55 heads ... or anything really, but in most cases it will
be a number near 50.
Important notes
The probability of an event can only be between 0 and 1
(and can also be written as a percentage)
The probability of event A is often written as P(A)
If P(A) > P(B) then event A has a higher chance of
occurring than event B
If P(A) = P(B) then events A and B are equally likely to
occur
Experiment or Trial
An action where the result is uncertain.
Sample Space
All the possible outcomes of an experiment
Sample Point
Just one of the possible outcomes
Event
A single result of an experiment
The Sample Space is
all possible
outcomes.
A Sample Point is
just one possible
outcome.
And an Event can be
oneor moreof the
possible outcomes.
Determination of
probability
You are given two dice to roll. One is black with six sides;
the other is white with four sides.
For a given roll, what is the probability you roll the
same number on each die?
You are given two six-sided dice to roll.
For a given roll, what is the probability that the
values of the dice add to 11?
You are given two six-sided dice to roll..
For a given roll, what is the probability the black
die displays 5 and the white die displays 3?
You are given two six-sided dice to roll..
For a given roll, what is the probability that the
black die displays an even number and the white
die displays 3?
You are given two six-sided dice to roll..
For a given roll, what is the probability that the
values of the dice add to 3 or less?
Example 1
You and your friend are playing "Rock-Paper-Scissors." In
this game, each of the two players chooses rock, paper,
or scissors. Both players reveal their choice at the same
time, and the winner is determined based on the
choices. Rock beats scissors by smashing it, scissors
beats paper by cutting it, and paper beats rock by
covering it. If both players choose the same object, it is
a tie. All the possible outcomes of the game are listed
below.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where there
is not a tie.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend does not win.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win or there is a tie.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend wins or there is a
tie.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Rock
Your
friends
choice
Rock
Rock
Paper
Rock
Scissors
Paper
Rock
Paper
Paper
Paper
Scissors
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where there
is not a tie.
The subset consists of
all the outcomes where
your friend does not
win.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win or there is a tie.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend wins or there is a
tie.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Rock
Your
friends
choice
Rock
Rock
Paper
Rock
Scissors
Paper
Rock
Paper
Paper
Paper
Scissors
Example 2
You and your friend are playing a game where you flip a
coin and roll a fair four-sided die. You win if the coin is
heads and the die lands on an odd number. Your friend
wins if the coin is tails and the die lands on an even
number. You tie if the coin is heads and the die is even
or if the coin is tails and the die is odd. All the possible
outcomes of the game are listed below.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where
either you win or there is
a tie
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend does not lose.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend does not win.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where there
is a tie.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
The subset consists of
all the outcomes where
either you win or there
is a tie
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend does not lose.
The subset consists of
all the outcomes where
your friend does not
win.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where there
is a tie.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
Example 3
You and your friend are playing a game where you flip a
coin and roll a fair four-sided die. You win if the coin is
heads and the die lands on an odd number. Your friend
wins if the coin is tails and the die lands on an even
number. You tie if the coin is heads and the die is even
or if the coin is tails and the die is odd. All the possible
outcomes of the game are listed below.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend wins.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win or lose.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
tie.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend wins.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win or lose.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
tie.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Heads
Your
friends
choice
1
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
Example 4
Joe and Maxine are playing a game where they flip a fair
coin four times and try to predict the outcomes. Joe
thinks that the probability of getting exactly two heads
in the four flips is greater than the probability of getting
heads on both the first and second flips. Maxine
disagrees. She thinks that the two probabilities are
equal.
Joe thinks that the probability
of getting exactly two heads
in the four flips is greater
than the probability of getting
heads on both the first and
second flips.
Maxine disagrees. She thinks
that the two probabilities are
equal.
Choose the correct answer?
Joe is correct.
Maxine is correct
HHHH
THHH
HTHH
HHTH
HHHT
TTTT
THHH
THTT
TTHT
TTTH
HHTT
HTHT
HTTH
TTHH
THTH
THHT
Joe thinks that the probability
of getting exactly two heads
in the four flips is greater
than the probability of getting
heads on both the first and
second flips.
Maxine disagrees. She thinks
that the two probabilities are
equal.
Choose the correct answer?
Joe is correct.
Maxine is correct
HHHH
THHH
HTHH
HHTH
HHHT
TTTT
THHH
THTT
TTHT
TTTH
HHTT
HTHT
HTTH
TTHH
THTH
THHT
Example 5
You and your friend are playing "Fire-Water-Sponge." In
this game, each of the two players chooses fire, water,
or sponge. Both players reveal their choice at the same
time, and the winner is determined based on the
choices. Fire beats sponge by burning it, sponge beats
water by soaking it up, and water beats fire by putting it
out. If both players choose the same object, it is a tie.
All the possible outcomes of the game are listed below.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
do not win and there is
not a tie.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where your
friend wins.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where there
is a tie.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Fire
Your
friends
choice
Water
Fire
Fire
Fire
Sponge
Water
Fire
Water
Sponge
Water
Water
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where you
win
The subset consists of
all the outcomes where
you do not win and
there is not a tie.
The subset consists of
all the outcomes where
your friend wins.
The subset consists of all
the outcomes where there
is a tie.
Your
Choice
Outcome
1
Outcome
2
Outcome
3
Outcome
4
Outcome
5
Outcome
Fire
Your
friends
choice
Water
Fire
Fire
Fire
Sponge
Water
Fire
Water
Sponge
Water
Water
Simple probability
Example 1
Mrs. Avery is going to randomly select one student from
her class to read a poem out loud. There are15boys
and13girls in her class.
What isP(Boy)?
Example 3
Giovanna owns a farm. She is going to randomly select
one animal to present at the state fair. She
has6pigs,7chickens, and10cows.
What is
Example 4
Cam can't figure out what to eat. He is going to
randomly select a piece of fruit from his pantry. There
are4apples and5bananas in his pantry.
What is the
Example 5
Bruce is going to call one person from his contacts at
random. He has25total contacts.20 of those contacts
are from his neighborhood.
What is
(callapersonnotfromhisneighborhood)?
