BP Amoco – A Case Study
On Project Finance
Presented By,
Sanjiv Kumar Singh (49)
Sanjiv Kumar Singh (48)
Ankita Chauhan (05)
Vinay Gupta (58)
Vikas (60)
Manjeet Malik (27)
Background
BP Amoco investment of 34.1% in AIOC developing oil fields
in the Azerbaijani Sector.
Completed $ 1.9 Billion (Escalated from $1 Billion) Early oil
Project – 100,000 BPD.
BP – General Corporate Finance.
Amoco –Finance through two multilateral Agencies.
Full Field Development project comprised of three stage.
Investment needed of about $ 8 - $ 10 Billion.
Estimated Reserves of 4.5 to 5 Billion Barrels.
Stage 1 capital expenditure to start within a year.
Background Cont…
Newly Formed Azerbaijan.
New & Untested Constitution.
Declining Oil Reserves (Reserve Risk) – 70% 8%.
Political Instability, High Unemployment Rate, Oil dependent
Economy.
Not so peaceful neighbors (Russia & Iran).
Geo Politically Challenging Territory.
MEP (Main export Pipeline) Feasible only when proven
reserves of 6 billion Barrels.
? How BP Amoco should Finance this investment?
Project Risks
Political Risks
• Leadership issues – Change in leadership could create
disputes.
• Russia & Iran claiming rights over the reserves.
• AIOC could loose its exclusive right to develop the fields.
• Dispute with Armenia.
Financial Risks
• Financial Crisis led to liquidity Crunch.
• Increasingly difficult to get finance even through
multilateral Agencies.
• 450 basis points above LIBOR.
Project Risks Cont…
Transportation Risks
• Pipeline not a long term solution due to political &
economical risks.
• Transneft (Russian Owned) controlled pricing & service
decisions.
• Pipeline also crossed Chechnya.
• Transit fees to be raised by 5 folds through Bosporous Strait.
Industry Risks
• Reserve & Commodity Price Risks.
• CIPCO withdrew its operation after finding it uneconomical.
• High Volatility in crude prices. Prices plummeted to $10
though estimates were of $14 per barrel.
• BP Amoco net Income down by 50%, 20 % budget
Issues
Whether to refinance Amoco’s project loan from
early oil project.
Benefits
Refinancing may lead to lower cost of funds.
Costs
Negative signal to the MIG members and could
jeopardize AIOC’s relationship with the IFC & EBRD.
Decision Options – Cost Benefit Analysis
How to Finance Full field Development Project?
1. Using Project Finance.
Benefit
Allowed Leveraging of investment through outside
funds.
Shielding from political risks.
Disadvantage
Time needed to close the deal.
High cost of debt.
Decision Options – Cost Benefit Analysis
2. Go for Corporate Finance.
Benefits
Lower cost of funds.
Quick release of funds.
Disadvantage
May lead to higher cost of funds for other members.
The consortium might get dissolved.
Disadvantageous precedents for future financings.
Decision Options – Cost Benefit Analysis
3. Dual Financing Strategy
Benefits
Relatively lesser cost of funds.
Relatively lesser time to accumulate funds.
Disadvantages
Higher interest rates for other members of the group.
Other members might find it difficult to raise internal
funds given the bleak present scenario.
Conclusion
Using dual financing strategies taking various factors
into consideration.
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