Individual and Group Decision Making
Chapter Twelve
McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Learning Objectives
LO.1 Compare and contrast the rational model of decision making, Simons normative model, and the garbage can model. LO.2 Discuss eight decision-making biases. LO.3 Discuss the thrust of evidence-based decision making and its implementation principles. LO.4 Explain the model of decision-making styles. LO.5 Explain the model of intuition and the ethical decision tree.
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Learning Objectives (cont.)
LO.6 Summarize the pros and cons of involving groups in the decision-making process. LO.7 Contrast brainstorming, the nominal group technique, the Delphi technique, and computer-aided decision making. LO.8 Describe the stages of the creative process. LO.9 Discuss the practical recommendations for increasing creativity.
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Models of Decision Making
Decision making
identifying and choosing alternative solutions that lead to a desired state of affairs
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Models of Decision Making
The Rational Model
proposes that managers use a rational fourstep approach to decision making.
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The Rational Model
Identify the Problem or Opportunity
Problem exists when the actual situation and the desired situation differ Opportunity - represents a situation in which there are possibilities to do things that lead to results that exceed goals and expectations
Generate Alternative Solutions
For routine decisions alternatives are readily available through decision rules
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Rational Model
Evaluate Alternatives and Select a Solution
Is the potential solution ethical? Is it feasible? Will it remove the causes and solve the problem?
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Rational Model
Implement and Evaluate the Solution
After solution is implemented, the evaluation phase is used to evaluate its effectiveness Optimizing producing the best possible solution
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Summarizing the Rational Model
1. The quality of decisions may be enhanced 2. It makes the reasoning behind a decision
transparent 3. If made public, it discourages the decider from acting on suspect considerations
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Nonrational Models of Decision Making
Nonrational models
Attempt to explain how decisions are actually made
1. Decision making is uncertain 2. Decision makers do not possess complete
information 3. Difficult for managers to make optimal decisions
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Simons Normative Model
Bounded rationality
represents the notion that decision makers are bounded or restricted by a variety of constraints when making decisions
Satisficing
choosing a solution that meets some minimum qualifications, one that is good enough.
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Simons Normative Model
Most frequent causes of poor decision making
Poorly defined processes and practices Unclear company vision, mission, and goals Unwillingness of leaders to take responsibility Lack of reliable, timely information
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Garbage Can Model
Garbage Can Model
decision making is sloppy and haphazard decisions result from complex interaction of four independent streams of events: problems, solutions, participants and choice opportunities
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Implications of the Garbage Can Model
1. More pronounced in industries that rely on 2. 3. 4.
science-based innovations Many decisions are made by oversight Political motives frequently influence decision makers Important decisions are more likely to be solved
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Integrating Rational and Nonrational Models
1. A simple context is stable, and clear causeand-effect relationships can be discerned, so the best answer can be agreed on 2. In a complicated context, there is a clear relationship between cause and effect, but some people may not see it, and more than one solution may be effective
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Integrating Rational and Nonrational Models
3. In a complex context, there is one right
answer, but there are so many unknowns that decision makers dont understand cause-and-effect relationships. 4. In a chaotic context, cause-and-effect relationships are changing so fast that no pattern emerges.
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Decision-Making Biases
Judgmental heuristics
rules of thumb or shortcuts that people use to reduce information processing demands.
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Decision-Making Biases
Availability heuristic
Representativeness heuristic
Confirmation bias
Anchoring bias
Overconfidence bias
Hindsight bias
Framing bias
Escalation bias
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Question?
From January to October, Jamie's work performance was at best mediocre. In November and December, he significantly picked up his performance and did an excellent job. His supervisor evaluated him as an outstanding performer. This can be explained partially due to the:
A.Escalation of commitment effect. B.Representativeness heuristic. C.Nominal group effect. D.Availability heuristic.
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Evidence-Based Decision Making
Evidence-based decision making (EBDM)
represents a process of conscientiously using the best available data and evidence when making managerial decisions
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A Model of Evidence-Based Decision Making (EBDM)
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Seven Implementation Principles
1. Treat your organization as an unfinished
prototype 2. No brag, just facts 3. See yourself and your organization as others do 4. Evidence-based management is not just for senior executives
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Seven Implementation Principles (cont.)
5. Like everything else, you still need to sell it 6. If all else fails, slow the spread of bad
practice 7. The best diagnostic question: What happens when people fail?
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Why Is It Hard to be Evidenced-Based?
1. Theres too much evidence. 2. Theres not enough good evidence. 3. The evidence doesnt quite apply. 4. People are trying to mislead you. 5. You are trying to mislead you. 6. The side effects outweigh the cure. 7. Stories are more persuasive anyway.
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General Decision-Making Styles
Value orientation
reflects the extent to which an individual focuses on either task and technical concerns or people and social concerns when making decisions
Tolerance for ambiguity
extent to which a person has a high need for structure or control in his life
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Decision-Making Styles
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The Role of Intuition in Decision Making
Intuition
represents judgments, insights, or decisions that come to mind on their own, without explicit awareness of the evoking cues and of course without explicit evaluation of the validity of these cues.
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A Model of Intuition
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A Model of Intuition
Holistic hunch
judgment that is based on a subconscious integration of information stored in memory
Automated experiences
choice based on a familiar situation and a partially subconscious application of previously learned information related to that situation
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Road Map to Ethical Decision Making: A Decision Tree
Decision tree
graphical representation of the process underlying decisions and it shows the resulting consequences of making various choices
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An Ethical Decision Tree
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Group Involvement
Minority dissent
extent to which group members feel comfortable disagreeing with other group members, and a groups level of participation in decision making
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Advantages and Disadvantages of Group-Aided Decision Making
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Group Problem Solving Techniques
Consensus
reached when all members can say they either agree with the decision or have had their day in court and were unable to convince the others of their viewpoint. Everyone agrees to support the outcome.
Brainstorming
process to generate a quantity of ideas
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Rules for Brainstorming
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
Defer judgment Build on the ideas of others Encourage wild ideas Go for quantity over quality Be visual Stay focused on the topic One conversation at a time
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Group Problem Solving Techniques
Nominal Group Technique
process to generate ideas and evaluate solutions
Delphi technique
process to autonomously generate ideas from physically dispersed experts
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Group Problem Solving Techniques
Computer-aided decision making
a variety of computer, software, and electronic devices to improve decision making allows managers to quickly obtain larger amounts of information from employees, customers, or suppliers around the world Chauffeur-driven systems, group-driven electronic meetings
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Creativity
Creativity
process of using intelligence, imagination, and skill to develop a new or novel product, object, process, or thought
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The Creativity Stages
Preparation Concentration Incubation Illumination Verification
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Video: Leadership: Making Decisions During Hurricane Katrina
What roadblocks to using a rational decision making model were placed before the Sisters in this case? Could anything have been done to make their decisions easier? Identify how intuition and creativity helped the Sisters in the decisions they had to make. Without the ability to communicate or have the resources they normally had at their disposal, what did the Sisters rely on in making the decisions they needed to make? Why was timely decision making so essential in this case?
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